q3 2010 lake monticello fluvanna market report

8/8/2019 Q3 2010 Lake Monticello Fluvanna Market Report

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Fluvanna & Lake MonticelloReal Estate Market Analysis

Data compiled and presented by:

Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed

86 Joshua LanePalmyra, VA 22963

434.589.5800AllAroundCharlottesville.com

3rd Quarter 2010


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We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few thingsyou should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .

The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORSMultiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however,is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. Allof the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted.

The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License.

This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with properattribution to Strong Team REALTORS.

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We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any

questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of thereport, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, orsend an email to [email protected]. You can also sign up for our regular email newsletterby visiting: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com

Strong Team REALTORS
mailto:[email protected]://creativecommons.org/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://creativecommons.org/http://creativecommons.org/


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Introduction

Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely criticalin order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, thatsuch information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that.

This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local realestate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand thatmarket data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. Wewant to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the bestdecisions for them.

Everyone has a feeling about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will showyou a true picture of the local real estate market.

Scope of this report

The data in this report looks back at the first 3 Quarters of 2010 (Jan. - Sept.) and compares it to the sametime period in 2009. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle,Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or LakeMonticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against theperformance of the region.



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Total Sales By Area

The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Areafor the first nine months of 2010. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total.

For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume remains 5% higher than it was at this point last year,despite the fact that the area was well below last years totals over the last three months (more on thatlater).

Charlottesville is still the only local area that has seen a decrease in sales this year. Every other area is upmodestly for the year.

It is obvious from these numbers, and especially when we look at the month by month sales later, that theHomebuyer Tax Credit had a tremendous impact on the housing market. The purpose of the tax credit, andthe reason for extending it through April, was to stimulate the sales of homes, and clearly that objective wasfulfilled.

The downside to the tax credit was that it shifted demand forward a few months, which is obvious from

looking at the month-by-month sales numbers for the area. Once the tax credit expired at the end of June,sales in area ran into a brick wall. Things have gotten a bit better since then, but our current sales pace andvolume is probably something we can expect to see going into the future.



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0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson Total

Total Sales by Area

2009 2010Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during the first nine months of2010 and 2009. In the previous chart, both were included in the Fluvanna column. Since Lake Monticellois, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is

worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible.

The good news here is that both Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello have been able to maintain orexceed last years sales numbers. Fluvanna County has actually seen a whopping 30% increase in sales,while Lake Monticello has exactly matched the 2009 number of sales for the first three quarters of theyear.

In what is a recurring theme throughout 2010, the Homebuyer Tax Credit is the reason for the increasedsales. In particular, Fluvanna has benefited from a tremendous increase in new construction sales in thefirst nine months of the year. Most of this activity was spurred by the tax credit and the incentives beingoffered by builders.

Since there is very little new construction occurring in Lake Monticello, it has not experienced that same

bump. We will examine exactly what the state of the market in these two areas a little more closely whenwe take a look at the month-by-month sales numbers in just a moment.


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0

12

24

36

48

60

72

84

96

108

120

Fluvanna Co. ONLY Lake Monticello

Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales



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Charlottesville Area Sales by Month

The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares themonthly-by-month totals from 2010 and 2009. This chart is important because it gives a picture of theentire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month.

As was mentioned earlier in this report, you can see what a tremendous impact the tax credit had on saleswhen you examine them on a monthly basis. The drop off from June to July was tremendous. Once thetax credit expired on June 30th, sales in the area ran into a brick wall, falling a whopping 40% below lastyears level in July. Usually, July is the peak of the selling season, and historically has the most closings. Thetax credit shifted much of that demand into the earlier months, and July numbers suffered greatly as aresult.

The good news is that the sales gap closed significantly in August and September, to levels that were justslightly below those experienced in 2009. One thing that these numbers make clear, however, is that themarket is not outperforming last year anymore. Now that we are operating in a post-tax-credit market,these are like to be the kind of numbers we are going to see for the rest of the year.

The question that is impossible to answer is whether or not the tax credit actually brought new buyers tothe market, or simply shifted sales forward. Regardless of the answer, now that the credit is gone, we canget a better idea of where the market really stands.


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Charlottesville Area Sales by Month



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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month

The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but theinformation is limited to Fluvanna County (including Lake Monticello) on the first chart, and to Lake

Monticello (only) on the second chart.

In looking at the monthly numbers for Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, again the impact of the tax creditonce again becomes evident.

While numbers did drop in July, as they did throughout the area, they didnt drop so far as to besignificantly lower than July 2009 numbers. One of the reasons for this is that July 2009 was an

uncharacteristic month. Sales in July 2009 were lower in both Fluvanna and Lake Monticello that wasexpected.

The good news is that since July, both Fluvanna and Lake Montciello have been able to track reasonablywell along the 2009 numbers. The interesting thing here is that neither 2009 or 2010 has followedtraditional real estate market sales trends in Fluvanna or Lake Monticello. The fact that the overall salesnumbers have remained close in these two years is a good thing, as it might signal a degree of stability, atleast with respect to overall sales numbers for the market in the two areas.



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0

8

17

25

33

42

50


Fluvanna Sales by Month



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0

4

8

12

16

20


Lake Monticello Sales by Month




Median Price by Area

The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2010 is comparedto 2009, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY.

The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. Themedian price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. Thereason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales ateither extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore,considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market.

In the first three quarters of 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area was $265,000. In2010, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area fell to $260,000 (-1.8%). Results for the medianprice were mixed across the areas, with some seeing an increase, and others seeing a decrease. In allcases, however, the difference wasnt so extreme as to draw significant attention, except for NelsonCounty, where the median has fallen 11%.

Lake Monticello experienced a very slight increase (2.5%) in median home price.


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0

37,500

75,000

112,500

150,000

187,500

225,000

262,500

300,000

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Median Price by Area

2009 2010* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS



Days on Market by Area

The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It shows the averageDOM for the 1st Quarter of 2010. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only.

DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes undercontract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the waythe DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect thetrue DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, whenDOM isnt completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the averageDOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower.

The DOM seems to be holding fairly steady in the area. Right now, there is so much volatility in theinventory, due to listings going off the market and coming back on, or going into foreclosure and comingback on, that the statistic isnt as reliable as we would like it to be. The fact remains that we are currentlyexperiences a definite buyers market right now, as the DOM still remains fairly high.

Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while othersremain on the market for months, or even a year or more.


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Days on Market by Area

2010*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS



Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including LakeMonticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the

inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2010, there were299 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 126 of those were located in Lake Monticello.

We were surprised to see that the inventory numbers for 2010 were actually higher than the numbers for2009. Given the increase in sales, one would think that inventory should have been slightly lower, but it isobvious that even more homes must have come on the market than buyers could buy. So it looks likesupply is currently outpacing demand. This trend will need to be examined as we move through the year,

because we would hope that inventories would actually fall, which looks like it is beginning to happen.


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300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400


Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month*

2009 2010

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200


Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*

2009 2010

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

S ld Li t P i Fl & L k M ti ll



Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties inFluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2010 and 2009. The Fluvanna columnincludes all homes, while Lake Monticello refers only to homes in Lake Monticello.

This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receivingwhen their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, andcompares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions,there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effectof inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, thepercentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated.

Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price,the final contract price was $192,000. Fluvanna County home sellers definitely did better, compared to listprice, in the first nine months of 2010 than Lake Monticello sellers did. The reason for this is that many ofthe sales in Fluvanna County were new construction homes. Construction companies are usually better atanticipating the market, and adjusting their prices accordingly. Many regular sellers are reluctant to pricetheir homes lower, and they suffer the consequences as a result.

As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaningthat many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price atthe time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect toreceive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers andsellers should act accordingly.


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90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Fluvanna Lake Monticello ONLY

Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage)



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52,500

105,000

157,500

210,000

262,500

315,000

367,500

420,000

472,500

525,000

Median Price Average Price

Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics*

2009 2010

*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 14 sale in 2010, 9 sales in 2009Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

C l i


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Conclusion

The one thing that is crystal clear from the numbers in the first nine months of 2010 is that this will likelybe known as the Year of the Tax Credit. The tax credit had a tremendous impact on sales in the area,which was the purpose for having it in the first place.

Now that the tax credit is gone, the one encouraging thing that we can see is that sales are still remainingclose to where they were a year ago. We hope that this trend will continue, as it might signal a stabilizationof the market.

One thing that everyone in this market must accept is that the market we are currently experiencing islikely going to be with us for years, not months. Unless there is some kind of significant change in the

overall economy, where we are is where we can expect to be for the foreseeable future. This isntnecessarily a bad thing, as prices have become fairly stable, and sales are still occurring. Those who are ableto accept this realities first are the ones who have the greatest chance for success.

You can rest assured that we will be watching the market closely over the next few months, and you cancount on us to keep you updated and on top of all the changes and news you need to know.

Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and makean effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and goodinformation provides the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals.


Thank you


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Thank you

We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & LakeMonticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis bothinformative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may findit valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future marketanalyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected], or sign upfor our regular email newsletter at: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com

It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary toachieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have aboutreal estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever

it is needed. Please dont hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.

Strong Team REALTORS86 Joshua Lane

Palmyra, VA 22963434-589-5800

AllAroundCharlottesville.com
http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/http://strongteamnewsletter.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

q3 2010 lake monticello fluvanna market report

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