q3 2020 investor presentation final - norbord · 2020. 11. 10. · •this presentation contains...
TRANSCRIPT
Investor PresentationNovember 10, 2020
Forward‐Looking Statements
2
Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward‐looking statements and estimates.
• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward‐looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward‐looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward‐looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward‐looking information.
Non‐IFRS Financial Measures
3
Notices
• During the course of this presentation, certain non‐IFRS financial measures will be presented. Reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
• Norbord defines the following non‐IFRS financial measures as: – Adjusted EBITDA as earnings (loss) determined in accordance with IFRS before finance costs, interest income, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and non‐recurring or other items;
– Tangible net worth as shareholders’ equity including certain adjustments;
– Net debt to capitalization, book basis as net debt for financial covenant purposes divided by the sum of net debt for financial covenant purposes and tangible net worth;
– Net debt for financial covenant purposes as net debt excluding other long‐term debt and including other liabilities classified as debt for financial covenant purposes, letters of credit and guarantees outstanding, and any bank advances;
– Net debt as the principal value of long‐term debt, including the current portion, other long‐term debt and bank advances, if any, less cash and cash equivalents;
– ROCE (return on capital employed) as annualized Adjusted EBITDA divided by average capital employed;
– Capital employed as the sum of property, plant and equipment, intangible assets and operating working capital; and
– Operating working capital as accounts receivable plus inventory and prepaids less accounts payable and accrued liabilities.
Company Overview
Norbord Snapshot
• Leading manufacturer of wood‐based panel products
• Largest global producer of Oriented Strand Board (OSB)– Stated OSB capacity of 9.0 Bsf‐3/8”(1)
– Stated panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 9.9 Bsf‐3/8”(1)
– Approximately 2,400 employees at 17 plants (15 operating) across the US, Canada and Europe
• Listed on the NYSE and TSX (“OSB”)
• Report in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS
• LTM Q3 2020 sales of $2.0 billion
5
Company Overview
North America
Europe
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
Particleboard
Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF)
Furniture
Panel Capacity by Region(1)
(1) Based on stated annual capacity as at December 31, 2019.
The Leading Global OSB Company
6
Company Overview
Top 10 Global OSB Producers
Enterprise Value
Source: Company filings and Bloomberg. Based on stated annual capacity as at December 31, 2019 . Enterprise values as at November 9, 2020.
* Excluding OSB siding capacity
*
Norbord’s Wood‐Based Panel Products
7
Company Overview
OSB – 90% of Capacity (1)
• Norbord’s operations include 15 OSB mills and two other plant locations in the UK producing particleboard, MDF and related value‐added products
• New home construction
• Repair and remodel
• Light commercial construction
• Industrial applications
Particleboard – 6% of Capacity (1)
• New home construction
• Repair and remodel
• Furniture
• Fixtures
MDF – 4% of Capacity (1)
• Furniture
• Fixtures
• Mill work
(1) Based on stated annual capacity as at December 31, 2019.
Sustainability: Core to Our Business
8
Company Overview
Wood is a renewable resource
OSB sequesterscarbon
We utilize 100% of the tree
We use biomassto generate heat energy
Committed to Reducing Green House Gas (GHG) Emissions
9
Company Overview
Source: Norbord 2019 Annual Report
• Norbord’s global operations accounted for < 700 kilotonnes of CO2e Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions in 2019
• These are modest emissions levels compared to ~6,000 kilotonnes of CO2e sequestered in our products
Industry Overview
Typical Uses for OSB Products
11
Industry Overview
Wall Sheathing
Webstock
Flooring
Rimboard Door Header
Roof
Window Header
Garage Door Header
• OSB is an innovative, affordable and environmentally sustainable structural panel– Serves many of the same uses as plywood, but produced at a lower cost
• Norbord expects OSB will continue to capture market share from plywood– Currently, OSB represents 69% of total North American structural panel production
Source: APA, October 2020
Global OSB Industry
12
Industry Overview
Industry OSB Capacity (MMsf‐3/8”)
Norbord operates in the two significant global OSB producing regions
Source: Company documents and other public filings, Wood Based Panels International (WBPI)
* Excluding NA OSB siding capacity
*
North American & European OSB Industries
13
Industry Overview
North American OSB Industry
Source: Company documents and other public filings – stated industry capacity as at December 31, 2019.
European OSB Industry
Norbord is a significant player in both key markets
* Excluding OSB siding capacity.
*
Kronospan 41%
SwissKrono 16%
10%
Egger8%
Sonae‐Arauco4%
Smartply 4%
Other16%
Industry Capacity12 Bsf‐3/8"
US Housing Starts Are the Single Biggest End Use for OSB
14Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA)
Industry Overview
US Repair & Remodel Demand Also Drives OSB Consumption
15
Industry Overview
Bsf‐3
/8” ba
sis
US$
billions
Source: Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); expenditures in 2012 US$
Favourable Long‐term OSB Industry Fundamentals
16
Industry Overview
North American OSB Demand
Source: Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA)
The picture can't be displayed.
The picture can't be displayed.
North American OSB Industry Stated Capacity of ~27 Bsf
17
Industry Overview
(1) 100 Mile House, BC mill permanent closure announced November 5, 2020.
Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
33 Mills in Operation
3 Mills Idle
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
11 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13 & 2017/18
Norbord Mill
1 Mill Permanently Closed in 2020(1)
Historical North American OSB Prices
18
Industry Overview
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths
• OSB prices are tied to demand for building products, which is influenced by the general economy, demographics and the need for housing
Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370 211 271
Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330 426 188 270
Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409 363 217 578
Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379 243 223
Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353 351 210
Europe: Strong Demand Growth Driven by Substitution
19
Industry Overview
OSB Share of Structural Panels
Source: Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA), European Panel Federation (EPF) and Norbord estimates
European OSB Demand (000 m3)
Source: Eurostat, UN Comtrade Database, Destatis and Norbord estimates
~9%2002‐2019 CAGR
North America
Europe Indicative Average OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths and Company documents
• Significant growth opportunity – OSB accounts for only ~8% of the structural panel market in Japan compared to 69% in North America
Japan: Stable Housing Market
20
Industry Overview
Japanese Housing Starts (000’s)
Source: Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism and Company documents
Business Strategy
Norbord’s Strategy Is Well Defined
22
Business Strategy
Pursue growth in OSB2
Own high‐quality assets with low‐cost positions3
Maintain a margin‐focused operating culture4
Focus on growth customers through best‐in‐class service and product development
5
Allocate capital with discipline6
Develop a world‐class safety culture 1
Norbord’s Growth Focused on OSB
23
Business Strategy
Norbord OSB Capacity (Bsf‐3/8”)
(1) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.(2) Norbord's total OSB capacity increased by 560 MMsf‐3/8" effective December 31, 2018 based on recent capital investments and improved efficiency.
(1) (2)
Margin Improvement Remains an Operational Priority
24
Business Strategy
(1) Measured relative to prior year at constant prices and exchange rates.(2) 2013 MIP gains from richer product mix and improved productivity were offset by higher maintenance‐related costs. (3) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.(4) 2018 MIP was negatively impacted by higher raw material usages and costs associated with executing on strategic capital and sales growth initiatives. Further, the excellent ramp up of the Huguley, Alabama and Inverness,
Scotland mills were excluded from 2018 MIP calculations. (5) 2019 MIP gains from improved productivity and product mix were offset by the efficiency impact of significant production curtailments across the North American mills.
(3)
Margin Improvement Program Gains (US$ in millions)
• Margin Improvement Program (MIP) gains help offset impact of industry‐wide rising input costs:– Increased productivity– Reduced overhead costs– Reduced raw material usage– Improved product mix
• MIP has delivered nearly $400 million of margin improvements over the past 18 years
(1)
(5)(4)(2)
Average: $22
30
36 37
28
56
9
14
29
16
2523
0
24
43
1512
0 0
43
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020YTD
Repositioning Business to Reduce Earnings Volatility
25
Business Strategy
Q3/20 LTM Sales
(1) Exports to Asia are handled by Interex and sales are reported in the North American geographic segment.
• Strong operating footprint
• Growing stable margin end‐uses:
– North American industrial products
– European panels
– Asia‐focused exports(1)
• Provides greater diversification than North American‐based competitors
• Better positioned to weather market cycles
(1)
$2.0 billion
Focused Customer Strategy Sets Norbord Apart
26
Business Strategy
Q3/20 LTM North American Shipments
• New home construction sales volume tied to US housing starts• Repair & remodel sales volume growing in step with R+R expenditures• Industrial and export sales volume growing through substitution, has more stable margins
5.7 Bsf‐3/8”
Commodity
27
Domestically Produced Panel Consumption (2019)
EWP
Furniture Commercial
Source: APA – The Engineered Wood Association, Composite Panel Association (CPA), International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), US Foreign Agricultural Service (US FAS), US Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects (USDA FS), US International Trade Commission (US ITCC)
Business Strategy
Norbord is a leading supplier to current industrial end uses
Transportation
Industrial Products Will Drive North American Substitution Growth
0
2
4
6
8
1012
14
16
18
20
22MDFParticleboardHW Plywood
56%
Residential R&R Non‐Residential Industrial
14.0
6.6
3.3
20.9
Bsf‐3
/8” 24%
22%
19%
22%
13%40%67%
28%
18%
80%
SW PlywoodOSB
More Stable Results from European Operations
28
Business Strategy
European Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)
• European panel prices that rolled over from the well above‐average levels of the past two years have bottomed
• Future margin growth is expected from the ramp‐up of Inverness Phase 1 and 2 investments
Average: $42
21
30
50
32 35
81
4
17
3744
3946 47
38 41 41
86
64
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q3/20LTM
Inverness Mill Expansion Supports Increasing European Customer Demand
29
Business Strategy
Phase 1 investment of US$147 million• New continuous press line started up in Q4/2017 • New finishing end commissioned in Q1/2019
Phase 2 investment of US$46 million (£35 million) • 2nd wood room and drying line installation complete in
Q3/2020 and commissioning well advanced• Continuous press continues to ramp towards Phase 2
capacity
395
720945
2016 Phase 1expansion
Phase 2expansion
+139%
Inverness Capacity (in MMsf‐3/8”) Inverness Investments
58%23%
19%
63%
4%
28%
5%
Diversifying Towards Stable Margin End Uses
30
Norbord shipments(1)
5.1 Bsf‐3/8”
(1) Reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.(2) Represents Norbord’s North American non‐OSB business (fully divested in 2010).
Business Strategy
20041.96M US Housing Starts
20191.29M US Housing Starts
Norbord shipments8.0 Bsf‐3/8”
(2)
NA Specialty
31
Business Strategy
Capex Investment (US$ millions)• Three main priorities:
– Re‐invest in the business– Optimize capital structure– Return cash to shareholders
• 2020 capex forecast of $100 million– Includes Inverness, Scotland Phase 2 project completion and preparation of Chambord for an eventual re‐start when warranted by customer demand
• 2021 capex budget of $150 million– Includes projects to:
– reduce manufacturing costs– enhance process safety– increase production of specialty products, and
– continue the Chambord rebuild
Disciplined Capital Allocation
(1)
(1) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.(2) Annual maintenance capex increased due to lease accounting change under IFRS 16.
Minimum Maintenance $35 million
(2)
Financial Overview
Strong Operating Cash Flow Through The Cycle
33
Financial Overview
North Central Avg. Benchmark OSB
Price$159 $293 $369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $209 $269 $353 $351 $210 $336
US Housing Starts(mln) 1.71 1.85 1.95 2.07 1.81 1.34 0.90 0.55 0.59 0.61 0.78 0.93 1.00 1.11 1.18 1.21 1.25 1.29 1.34
Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)
Average: $319
(1) As disclosed in Ainsworth’s historical MD&As; converted to USD using annual average exchange rate.(2) Assumes operation at LTM production levels as of October 3, 2020.
Norbord sensitivity to realized North American OSB price changes:
+$10/Msf 7/16” = +$47 million Adjusted EBITDA(2)
(1)
Source: Random Lengths, US Census Bureau
Manageable Leverage
34
Financial Overview
Adjusted EBITDA vs Net Debt
• Comfortable headroom versus revolver financial covenants
Q3 2020 CovenantNet debt to capitalization 27% 65% (max)Tangible net worth (book basis) $1,183 million $500 million (min)
Strong Balance Sheet & Liquidity
35
Financial Overview
Q3 2020
Cash $ 240
Bank Lines(1) 290
A/R Securitization(2) 124
Liquidity $ 654
Comfortable Debt Maturities (US$ millions) Strong Liquidity Profile (US$ millions)
Moody’s Ba1 (Stable)
S&P BB (Stable)
Stable Issuer Credit Ratings
coup
on 6.25%
(1) $300 million of committed revolving bank lines (increased from $245 million in May 2020) less $10 million of outstanding letters of credit and guarantees and $0 million drawn as cash at quarter‐end.(2) $124 million was the maximum available under the A/R securitization program and $0 million was recorded as drawings under the program at quarter end.
coup
on 5.75%
Returning Cash to Shareholders Through Variable Dividend Policy
36
Financial Overview
Dividends Declared (US$ millions)
(2)
(1) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.(2) Reflects dividend of C $0.60 per share (translated at C $1 = US $0.77) to be paid on December 21, 2020 to shareholders of record on December 1, 2020.
(1)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Peer1 Peer2 Peer3 Peer4 Peer5 Peer6 Peer7 Peer8
Strong Track Record of Value Creation in Forest Products
37
Financial Overview
Average ROCE %(1) (2002‐2019)
Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company reports
(1) Return on capital employed (ROCE) is a measure of financial performance focusing on cash generation and the effective use of capital. ROCE is calculated as Adjusted EBITDA divided by average capital employed (operating working capital, PP&E, goodwill, intangible assets of timberlands & licences).
(2) Only includes shares repurchased during 2018 and 2019 Normal Course Issuer Bid programs.
>$1.4BCapital invested
>$1.6BDividends paid out
$174Mto repurchase 6.6M shares
24%
(2)
38
Value Leader in the Wood Building Materials IndustryFinancial Overview
Peer1
Peer3
Peer2
Peer4
TSX Composite
~9‐Year Annualized Total Return (in US$)*
Source: Bloomberg*Annual return measured from December 30, 2011 to November 9, 2020.
39
Superior operating and cost performance
Diversification strategy supports growth and stable margins
Disciplined approach to capital allocation
Shareholder‐friendly track record
Strong ESG credentials
Attractive Investment Opportunity Summary
Appendices
Shareholder Information
41
Appendices
Ticker Symbol NYSE: OSB
TSX: OSB
Common Shares 80.7 million outstanding(as at November 4, 2020)
Quarterly Dividend(variable dividend policy)
C $0.60 per share (declared November 5, 2020 to be paid on December 21, 2020 to shareholders of record on December 1, 2020)
Largest Shareholder Brookfield Asset Management – ~43%(as at November 4, 2020)
Financial Sensitivities
42
Appendices
Exposure Change
Adjusted EBITDA Impact
(US$ millions)
North American OSB (1),(2) $10 per Msf‐7/16” + $64
European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $12
Canadian dollar (1),(3) $0.01 per C$ + $6
Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1
(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec and 100 Mile House, British Columbia mills). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf‐7/16” change is ± $47 million based on the last twelve months of production at October 3, 2020. Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry‐forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2019 – Canada C$15 million and Belgium €30 million.
(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.
(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares and income tax payments).
Analyst Coverage
43
Appendices
Analyst Analyst Name Contact
Bank of America John Babcock/George Staphos (646) 743‐0046 [email protected]
BMO Capital Markets Ketan Mamtora/Mark Wilde (212) 883‐5121 [email protected]
CIBC World Markets Hamir Patel (604) 331‐3047 [email protected]
Credit Suisse Andrew Kuske (416) 352‐4561 andrew.kuske@credit‐suisse.com
ERA Forest Products Research John Cooney (604) 267‐3021 jcooney@era‐research.com
John Tumazos Very Independent Research John Tumazos (732) 444‐1083 [email protected]
Raymond James Daryl Swetlishoff (604) 659‐8246 [email protected]
RBC Capital Markets Paul Quinn (604) 257‐7048 [email protected]
Scotia Capital Benoit Laprade (514) 287‐3627 [email protected]
Seaport Global Securities Mark Weintraub (646) 264‐5602 [email protected]
TD Securities Sean Steuart (416) 308‐3399 [email protected]
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at November 9, 2020. It is not exhaustive.
Forecast North American OSB Prices
44
Appendices
Analyst 2020E 2021E
BMO 421 376
Raymond James 410 300
TD 401 353
CIBC 401 350
Scotia 397 322
RBC 380 325
Seaport Global 375 340
BofA 374 300
Average 395 333
Annual AverageNorth Central
Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”
Norbord Inc.
Suite 600One Toronto Street
Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2W4Canada
Tel: 416‐365‐0705
www.norbord.com