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Quantifying the Effectiveness of Systems Engineering Presenters: Joseph P. Elm The Software Engineering Institute (SEI) a DoD Research FFRDC

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Quantifying the Effectiveness of Systems Engineering

Presenters: Joseph P. Elm

The Software Engineering Institute (SEI)a DoD Research FFRDC

2Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Copyright 2014 Carnegie Mellon University and IEEE

This material is based upon work funded and supported by the Department of Defense under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally funded research and development center.

NO WARRANTY. THIS CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY AND SOFTWARE ENGINEERING INSTITUTE MATERIAL IS FURNISHED ON AN “AS-IS” BASIS. CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY MAKES NO WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ANY MATTER INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PURPOSE OR MERCHANTABILITY, EXCLUSIVITY, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM USE OF THE MATERIAL. CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTY OF ANY KIND WITH RESPECT TO FREEDOM FROM PATENT, TRADEMARK, OR COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT.

This material has been approved for public release and unlimited distribution.

This material may be reproduced in its entirety, without modification, and freely distributed in written or electronic form without requesting formal permission. Permission is required for any other use. Requests for permission should be directed to the Software Engineering Institute at [email protected].

CMMI® is registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office by Carnegie Mellon University.

DM-0001639

3Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

The Software Engineering Institute (SEI)

Who we are• A Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC)• Sponsored by the Department of Defense

– but we work for all government agencies• Created in 1984 / CERT program founded in 1988• A Part of Carnegie Mellon University

What we do

Our MissionTo advance the technologies and practices needed to acquire,

develop, operate, and sustain software systems that are innovative, affordable, trustworthy, and enduring.

• Software Engineering• Software Research

• Cybersecurity• Assurance

• Acquisition Solutions• Emerging Technologies

4Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

SEI R&D Technical Priorities and Goals

Major Areas SEI Technical Priorities Goals Include . . .

Software Engineering

Development methods, empiricalanalysis methods, cost estimation, validation, sustainment

Create and sustain affordable,trustworthy, effective and enduring software systems with acceptable urgency

Assurance Designed-in security, evidence, acquisition guidance, tools

Improve the level of assurance in software systems using evidence

Specific Capabilities

Algorithms, networks and networking, mobile applications, embedded/real-time distributed systems

Maintain and expand the toolbox of techniques in critical, emerging and pervasive areas

Cybersecurity Forensics, coding standards, insider threat behavior, malware and code analysis, workforce education

Improve base and operational security, understand adversaries, spreading cyber competence

5Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

What does it take to develop a complex system?

Many Systems• Propulsion• Hydraulics• Power• Controls• Radar• Structures• Navigation• Computers• Communications• …

Many disciplines• Mechanical Engineering

– fluidynamics– structural

• Metallurgical Engineering• Electrical Engineering

– power– radar– Communications

• Manufacturing Engineering• Software Engineering• Test Engineering• …

6Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

But, Not Everything Fits Cleanlyinto One DisciplineRequirements Development and Management• Decomposition of requirements• Allocation of requirements among multiple

systems

Interdisciplinary Trade Studies• Requirements implementation in hardware vs.

software• Exotic alloys for low weight vs. more common

materials for low cost• Lower radar cross section vs. higher

aerodynamic performance

Architecture Development• Model Driven Design• Quality Attribute Driven Architecture

Business DriversSystem

ArchitectureArchitectural Approaches

Quality Attributes

Risks

Non-Risks

Sensitivity Points

Tradeoffs

Architectural Decisions

Scenarios

Risk Themes

Analysis

Architecture Development

and Evaluation Process

User Needs

System A Req’ts

Contracted Req’ts

System B Req’ts

SubsystemA1 Req’ts

SubsystemA2 Req’ts

System M Req’ts

SubsystemAn Req’ts

ComponentA1a Req’ts

ComponentA1b Req’ts

ComponentA1x Req’ts

7Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Who Pulls it All Together ?

Required skills• Global system-wide

perspective• Full life-cycle perspective• Forward-looking• Multidisciplinary technical

knowledge• Fact-based decision-making• Multi-tasking

Tasks Performed *• Requirements Development• Requirements Management• Trade Studies• System Architecture Development• Interface Management• Configuration Management• Program Planning• Program Monitoring and Control• Risk Management• Product Integration Planning and

Oversight• Verification Planning and Oversight• Validation Planning and Oversight

The Systems Engineer

How likely is program

success if these

activities are not done

well?

* Some tasks are done in partnership with the Program Manager

8Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Challenges in DoD Acquisition

GAO-09-362T - Actions Needed to Overcome Long-standing Challenges with Weapon SystemsAcquisition and Service Contract Management

• “costs … increased 26% and development costs increasedby 40% from first estimates”

• “programs … failed to deliver capabilities when promised—often forcing warfighters to [maintain] legacy systems”

• “current programs experienced, on average, a 21-monthdelay in delivering initial capabilities to the warfighter”

Although DoD is the largest acquirer in theworld, acquisition troubles remain 1

• 2011 MDAP RDT&E cost growth (mean) 84%• 2011 MDAP Procurement cost growth (mean) 28%• Effectiveness (1984-2011) 89%• Suitability (1984-2011) 72%• Nunn-McCurdy breach rate from 1997-2011 31% 1. “Performance of the Defense Acquisition System 2013

Annual Report” Table 2-3, page 34)

9Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Root Cause of Poor Program Performance

Inadequate Systems Engineering!• Finding from Performance of the Defense

Acquisition System 2013 Annual Report

– Dominant root cause of MDAP Cost Growth

• Finding from GAO-09-362T

– “… managers rely heavily on assumptions about system requirements, technology, and design maturity, which are consistently too optimistic. These gaps are largely the result of a lack of a disciplined systems engineering analysis prior to beginning system development …”

Dominant

10 of 18(56%)

Poor management performance• Systems engineering• Contractual incentives• Risk management• Situational Awareness

5 of 18(28%)

Baseline cost and schedule estimates• Framing assumptions

4 of 18(22%)

Change in procurement quantity

Infrequent

1 of 18 Immature technology, excessive manufacturing, or integration risk

2 of 18 Unrealistic performance expectations

1 of 18 Unanticipated design, engineering, manufacturing or technology issues

None Funding inadequacy

MDAP Cost Growth:PARCA Root Cause Analysis1

1. “Performance of the Defense Acquisition System 2013 Annual Report” Table 2-3, page 34)

10Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Perceptions of SE

The SE efforts on my program are critical because they …

We need to minimize the SE efforts on this program because …

… pay off in the end.… ensure that stakeholder

requirements are identified and addressed.

… provide a way to manage program risks.

… establish the foundation for all other aspects of the design.

… optimize the design through evaluation of alternate solutions.

… including SE costs in our bid will make it non-competitive.

… we don’t have time for ‘paralysis by analysis.’ We need to get the design started.

… we don’t have the budget or the people to support these efforts.

… SE doesn’t produce deliverable outputs.

… our customer won’t pay for them.

These are the ASSERTIONS, but what are the FACTS?

11Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

What is the ROI for SE?

It’s difficult to justify the costs of SE in terms that program managers and corporate managers can relate to.

• The costs of SE are evident– Cost of resources– Schedule time

• The benefits are less obvious and less tangible– Cost avoidance (e.g., reduction of rework from interface mismatches)– Risk avoidance (e.g., early risk identification and mitigation)– Improved efficiency (e.g., clearer organizational boundaries and

interfaces)– Better products (e.g., better understanding and satisfaction of

stakeholder needs)`

We need to quantify the effectiveness and value of SE by examining its effect on program performance?

12Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Measuring ROI

quantitativeevidence

Obtainof the costs and

associated benefits ofSystems Engineering

activities via a survey ofdevelopment

programs

13Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

The SE Effectiveness Study

Purpose• Strengthen the business case for SE by relating

program performance to the use of SE practices.

Method• Contact development programs using the

resources of NDIA, AESS, and INCOSE.• Survey programs to assess their

– SE activities– Program performance– Degree of challenge

• Process responses to identify statistical relationships between parameters.

Survey Tenets• All data is submitted anonymously and handled confidentially by the SEI.• Only aggregated non-attributable data is released.

14Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Artifact-based assessment of SE Practices

CMMI-SE/SW/IPPD v1.1

• 25 Process Areas• 179 Goals• 614 Practices• 476 Work Products

• 14 Process Areas• 31 Goals• 87 Practices• 199 Work Products

SystemsEngineering-related Filter

• 12 Process Areas• 23 Goals• 42 Practices• 61 Work Products

Size Constraint Filter

Considered significant to Systems Engineering

Survey content is based on a recognized standard (CMMI)

15Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Assessment of Program Performance

Assess TOTAL Program Performance• Program Cost, Program Schedule, Technical Performance• Focus on commonly used measurements

– EVMS, baseline management– requirements satisfaction– budget re-baselining and growth– milestone and delivery satisfaction

Assessment of Other Factors• Program Challenge – some programs are more complex than others

• Prior Experience – some acquirers are more capable than others

16Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Study Participants

Participant Solicitation• Contacted key members of major defense

contractors to promote study participation• Contacted the memberships of NDIA SE Division,

IEEE AESS, and INCOSE

Collected 148 valid responses

116

7 2 0 2 9 0 1 100

20406080

100120140

Ind.

Mfg

& S

vc:

defe

nse

Ind.

Mfg

& S

vc:

Ele

ctro

nic…

Ind.

Mfg

and

Svc

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ther

Tran

spor

tatio

n

Ene

rgy

Com

mun

icat

ions

Con

sum

er G

oods

&S

vc

Hea

lth C

are

Oth

er

Which of these best describes your industry or service?

130

6 3 2 2 1 1 1 10

20406080

100120140

US

A

UK

Sou

thA

frica

Aus

tralia

Can

ada

Indi

a

The

Net

herla

n…

Sw

eden

Finl

and

Please enter the country in which most of the design and development engineering will be/was

performed.

17Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Study Results

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

100 K$ 1 M$ 10 M$ 100 M$ 1 B$ 10 B$ 100 B$

Total program contract valueStd. Dev.

Mean

Median

488 M$2.22 B$50.5 M$

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Program Performance(Perf)

3.033.583.98

Median (2nd quartile)1st quartile

3rd quartile

010203040506070

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Program Challenge(PC)

2.222.502.68

Median (2nd quartile)1st quartile

3rd quartile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Total SE Deployed onProgram (SEC_Total)

2.783.033.41

Median (2nd quartile)1st quartile

3rd quartile

18Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

The Bottom Line: SE = Performance

Across ALL programs, 1/3 are at each performance level

For Lower SECprograms, only 15%deliver higher performance

For Middle SECprograms, 24% deliver higher performance

For Higher SEC programs, 57% deliver higher performance

Gamma = 0.49 represents a VERY STRONG relationship

52%29% 20%

33%

47%

24%

15% 24%

56%

Gamma = 0.49 p-value < 0.001

19Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

For Challenging ProgramsSE is even MORE important

32%19% 12%

45%58%

36%

23% 23%52%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Lower SEC(n=22)

Middle SEC(n=26)

Higher SEC(n=25)

Perf vs. SEC_Total (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.34 p-value = 0.029

69%39% 27%

23%

35%

12%

8%26%

62%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Lower SEC(n=26)

Middle SEC(n=23)

Higher SEC(n=26)

Perf vs. SEC_Total (High PC)

Gamma = 0.62 p-value = 0.000

A STRONG relationship between Total SE and Program Performance for LOWER CHALLENGE programs

A VERY STRONG relationship between Total SE and Program Performance for HIGHER CHALLENGE programs

20Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

A Deeper Look at SE Activities

Our survey questions addressed 11 areas of SE Activities• Program Planning• Requirements Development and Management• Product Architecture• Trade Studies• Product Integration• Verification• Validation• Risk Management• Configuration Management• Integrated Product Teams• Program Monitoring and Control

This enabled us to assess a program’s deployment of SE in each of these areas

Early SE

21Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

68%43%

14%

26%

22%

19%

6%35%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower Early SE(n=31)

Middle Early SE(n=23)

Higher Early SE(n=21)

Perf vs. EarlySE (High PC)

Gamma = 0.69

32% 17% 17%

47%53%

38%

21% 30%46%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower Early SE(n=19)

Middle Early SE(n=30)

Higher Early SE(n=24)

Perf vs. EarlySE (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.25

54%28%

13%

34%

40%

38%

12%32%

48%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Lower Early SE(n=50)

Middle Early SE(n=53)

Higher Early SE(n=52)

Perf vs. EarlySE

Gamma = 0.53

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

Early SE is the MOST Important

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.53 = Very Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.25 = Moderatefor the set of High Challenge programs 0.69 = Very Strong

22Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Program Planning vs. Performance

54%

24% 22%

33%

42%28%

13%34%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=48) Middle SEC(n=50)

Higher SEC(n=50)

Perf vs. SEC-PP

Gamma = 0.46 p-value = 0.000

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

24% 19% 21%

59%44% 41%

18%37% 38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=17)

Middle SEC(n=27)

Higher SEC(n=29)

Perf vs. SEC-PP (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.16 p-value = 0.313

71%

30% 24%

19%

39%

10%

10%30%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=31)

Middle SEC(n=23)

Higher SEC(n=21)

Perf vs. SEC-PP (High PC)

Gamma = 0.65 p-value = 0.000

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.46 = Very Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.16 = Weakfor the set of High Challenge programs 0.65 = Very Strong

23Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Requirements Dev’t & Mg’t vs. Performance

50%30% 20%

29%52%

22%

21% 18%

58%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=48) Middle SEC(n=50)

Higher SEC(n=50)

Perf vs. SEC-REQ

Gamma = 0.44 p-value = 0.000

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

35%15% 15%

40% 69%

30%

25% 15%

56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=20)

Middle SEC(n=26)

Higher SEC(n=27)

Perf vs. SEC-REQ (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.36 p-value = 0.017

61% 46%26%

21%33%

13%

18% 21%

61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=28)

Middle SEC(n=24)

Higher SEC(n=23)

Perf vs. SEC-REQ (High PC)

Gamma = 0.5 p-value = 0.001

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.44 = Very Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.36 = Strongfor the set of High Challenge programs 0.50 = Very Strong

24Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Verification vs. Performance

45% 38%19%

39%38%

28%

16% 24%

54%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=44) Middle SEC(n=50)

Higher SEC(n=54)

Perf vs. SEC-VER

Gamma = 0.43 p-value = 0.000

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

22% 26% 15%

57% 52%

33%

22% 22%52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=23)

Middle SEC(n=23)

Higher SEC(n=27)

Perf vs. SEC-VER (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.27 p-value = 0.084

71%48%

22%

19%

26%

22%

10%26%

56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=21)

Middle SEC(n=27)

Higher SEC(n=27)

Perf vs. SEC-VER (High PC)

Gamma = 0.6 p-value = 0.000

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.43 = Very Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.27 = Moderatefor the set of High Challenge programs 0.60 = Very Strong

25Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Architecture vs. Performance

49%33%

18%

36%

35%

33%

16%31%

49%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=45) Middle SEC(n=54)

Higher SEC(n=49)

Perf vs. SEC-ARCH

Gamma = 0.41 p-value = 0.000

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

33% 21% 8%

43%50%

46%

24% 29%46%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=21)

Middle SEC(n=28)

Higher SEC(n=24)

Perf vs. SEC-ARCH (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.31 p-value = 0.051

63%46%

28%

29%

19%20%

8%35%

52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=24)

Middle SEC(n=26)

Higher SEC(n=25)

Perf vs. SEC-ARCH (High PC)

Gamma = 0.49 p-value = 0.001

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.41 = Very Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.31 = Strongfor the set of High Challenge programs 0.49 = Very Strong

26Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Summary of Relationships – All Projects

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Total SEEarly SE

Project PlanningReq'ts Dev't & Mg't

VerificationProduct Architecture

Configuration Mg'tTrade Studies

Monitor & ControlValidation

Product IntegrationRisk Management

Integ. Product TeamsProject ChallengePrior Experience

Performance vs. SE Capability - All Projects

StrongModerateWeakModerate Very Strong

27Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Summary of Relationships - Challenging Projects

-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Total SE

Early SE

Project Planning

Verification

Configuration Mg't

Monitor & Control

Req'ts Dev't & Mg't

Product Architecture

Validation

Trade Studies

Product Integration

Integ. Product Teams

Risk Management

Project Challenge

Prior Experience

Performance vs. SE Capability - High Challenge

StrongModerateWeakModerate Very Strong

28Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Comparison with 2007 SE Effectiveness Study

On the whole, relationships identified in this study are noticeably stronger than those from the previous study• Probably due to reduction in noise resulting from the larger sample size

Most results from the two studies are generally in agreementprogram Performance vs. Total SE (2007)

39%

46%

15%

29%

59%

12%

31%

13%

56%

BestPerformance( x > 3.0 )

ModeratePerformance( 2.5 ≤ x ≤ 3.0 )

Lower Performance( x < 2.5 )

Lower Capability

( x ≤ 2.5 )N = 13

Moderate Capability

( 2.5 < x < 3.0 )N = 17

HigherCapability

(x ≥ 3.0 )N = 16

Gamma = 0.32p = 0.04

program PERFORMANCE vs. TOTAL SE CAPABILITY (2007)

1.00

0.75

0.50

0.25

0.00

52%

29%20%

33%

47%

24%

15% 24%

56%

Gamma = 0.49 p-value < 0.001

29Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Using the Findings of This Study -1

System Developers can use this report to:• plan SE capability improvement efforts focusing on those SE activities most

strongly associated with improved program performance• serve as an industry benchmark for their organization’s SE performance.

– Assess programs within the organization and compare with the study results to leverage strengths, and improve weaknesses

• justify and defend SE activities applied to programs.

System Acquirers may use this report to:• incorporate SE requirements into RFPs and source selection activities

– Ensure that SE activities are included in schedules and budgets– Demand SE deliverables (e.g. SE Management Plan) during program execution– Require SE evaluations of contractors during source selection and during program

execution

• employ this survey or similar methods to collect data from during program execution as a means of identifying supplier SE deficiencies contributing to program risks.

30Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Using the Findings of This Study -2

SE Educators may use this report to:• Focus curricula on key aspects of SE• Convey to students the value of SE

All may use this report to:• identify critical SE capabilities to guide Workforce Development

31Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Defense vs. Non-defense Projects -1

The data from the 2012 SE Effectiveness Study included responses from both defense-domain and non-defense-domain projects

• Cross-domain comparison of SE deployment, project performance and the relationships between them can identify improvement opportunities through transplantation of best practices between domains

2.50

2.70

2.90

3.10

3.30

3.50Total SEC

Early SE

ProjectPlanning

Req'ts Dev't& Mg't

Verification

ProductArchitecture

ConfigurationMg't

TradeStudies

Monitor &Control

Validation

ProductIntegration

RiskManagement

Integ ProductTeams

DEF

Non-DEF

SYSTEMS ENGINEERING DEPLOYMENT

3.453.503.553.603.653.70

PerfS

PerfT

PerfC

Perf

DEF

Non-DEF

PROJECT PERFORMANCE

NEW !

32Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Defense vs. Non-defense Projects -2

Next Steps: Investigate the differences between SE deployment / effectiveness in defense and non-defense domains to find “transplantable” best practices

33Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

Next Steps

Download the 2012 SE Effectiveness reports from the SEI website http://www.sei.cmu.edu/measurement/research/acquisition/Business-Case-SE.cfm

• The Business Case for Systems Engineering Study: Results of the Systems Engineering Effectiveness Survey

• The Business Case for Systems Engineering Study: Detailed Response Data

• The Business Case for Systems Engineering Study: Assessing Project Performance from Sparse Data

• The Business Case for Systems Engineering: Comparison of Defense Domain and Non-Defense Projects

Search for ways to apply the findings within your own work and your own organization.

Contact the SEI with questions or to obtain assistance.

34Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

SEI –Your Resource for Softwareand Systems Engineering

For more information, contact

Software Engineering Institute4500 Fifth AvenuePittsburgh, PA [email protected]

ORJoseph P. [email protected]

BACK UP

36Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

References

Elm, J.; Goldenson, D.; El Emam, K.; Donatelli, N.; Neisa, A. “A Survey of Systems Engineering Effectiveness – Initial Results”. Carnegie Mellon University; Pittsburgh, PA. 2007(available at http://resources.sei.cmu.edu/library/asset-view.cfm?assetid=8493)

Elm, J.; Goldenson, D. “The Business Case for Systems Engineering Study: Results of the Systems Engineering Effectiveness Survey”. Carnegie Mellon University; Pittsburgh, PA 2012 (available at http://resources.sei.cmu.edu/library/asset-view.cfm?assetid=34061)

Elm, J.; Goldenson, D. “The Business Case for Systems Engineering Study: Detailed Response Data”. Carnegie Mellon University; Pittsburgh, PA 2012(available at http://resources.sei.cmu.edu/library/asset-view.cfm?assetid=73582)

Elm, J. “The Business Case for Systems Engineering Study: Assessing Project Performance from Sparse Data”. Carnegie Mellon University; Pittsburgh, PA 2012(available at http://resources.sei.cmu.edu/library/asset-view.cfm?assetid=34055)

Elm, J.; Goldenson, D. “The Business Case for Systems Engineering: Comparison of Defense Domain and Non-Defense Projects”. Carnegie Mellon University; Pittsburgh, PA 2014(available at http://resources.sei.cmu.edu/library/asset-view.cfm?assetid=?????)

37Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

37% 31% 31%

41%35% 27%

22%35% 42%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=51) Middle SEC (n=52) Higher SEC (n=45)

Perf vs. SEC-IPT

Gamma = 0.18 p-value = 0.101

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

13% 23% 25%

57% 38% 46%

30% 38% 29%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=23)

Middle SEC(n=26)

Higher SEC(n=24)

Perf vs. SEC-IPT (Low PC)

Gamma = -0.12 p-value = 0.436

57%38% 38%

29%31%

5%

14% 31%57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=28)

Middle SEC(n=26)

Higher SEC(n=21)

Perf vs. SEC-IPT (High PC)

Gamma = 0.4 p-value = 0.007

Integrated Product Teams vs. Performance

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.18 = Weakfor the set of Low Challenge programs -0.12 = Weak Neg.for the set of High Challenge programs 0.40 = Strong

38Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

38% 36% 26%

38% 36%30%

24% 29%43%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=50) Middle SEC (n=45) Higher SEC (n=53)

Perf vs. SEC-RSKM

Gamma = 0.21 p-value = 0.05

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

14%33%

12%

67% 33%44%

19% 33% 44%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=21)

Middle SEC(n=27)

Higher SEC(n=25)

Perf vs. SEC-RSKM (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.18 p-value = 0.256

55%39% 39%

17% 39%18%

28% 22%43%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=29)

Middle SEC(n=18)

Higher SEC(n=28)

Perf vs. SEC-RSKM (High PC)

Gamma = 0.24 p-value = 0.124

Risk Management vs. Performance

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.21 = Moderatefor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.18 = Weakfor the set of High Challenge programs 0.24 = Moderate

39Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

43% 33% 23%

43%

34%25%

13%33%

52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=46) Middle SEC (n=58) Higher SEC (n=44)

Perf vs. SEC-TRD

Gamma = 0.38 p-value = 0

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

26% 17% 21%

63%50% 29%

11%33%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=19)

Middle SEC(n=30)

Higher SEC(n=24)

Perf vs. SEC-TRD (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.29 p-value = 0.062

56% 50%25%

30%18%

20%

15%32%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=27)

Middle SEC(n=28)

Higher SEC(n=20)

Perf vs. SEC-TRD (High PC)

Gamma = 0.43 p-value = 0.004

Trade Studies vs. Performance

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.38 = Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.29 = Moderatefor the set of High Challenge programs 0.43 = Very Strong

40Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

36% 38%21%

47% 34%

23%

17% 27%56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=36) Middle SEC (n=73) Higher SEC (n=39)

Perf vs. SEC-VAL

Gamma = 0.33 p-value = 0.003

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

18% 26% 12%

55% 50%

29%

27% 24%59%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=22)

Middle SEC(n=34)

Higher SEC(n=17)

Perf vs. SEC-VAL (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.23 p-value = 0.127

64% 49%27%

36%

21%

18%

0%31%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=14)

Middle SEC(n=39)

Higher SEC(n=22)

Perf vs. SEC-VAL (High PC)

Gamma = 0.48 p-value = 0.002

Validation vs. Performance

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.33 = Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.23 = Moderatefor the set of High Challenge programs 0.48 = Very Strong

41Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

50%30% 26%

34%

38%26%

16%32%

49%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=32) Middle SEC (n=81) Higher SEC (n=35)

Perf vs. SEC-PI

Gamma = 0.33 p-value = 0.003

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

33%17% 18%

47%51% 35%

20% 32% 47%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=15)

Middle SEC(n=41)

Higher SEC(n=17)

Perf vs. SEC-PI (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.23 p-value = 0.153

65%43% 33%

24%

25%17%

12%33%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=17)

Middle SEC(n=40)

Higher SEC(n=18)

Perf vs. SEC-PI (High PC)

Gamma = 0.42 p-value = 0.01

Product Integration vs. Performance

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.33 = Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.23 = Moderatefor the set of High Challenge programs 0.42 = Very Strong

42Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

46%27% 21%

37%

33%32%

17%39% 47%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=59) Middle SEC (n=51) Higher SEC (n=38)

Perf vs. SEC-CM

Gamma = 0.38 p-value = 0.001

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

27% 16% 17%

53%40% 44%

20%44% 39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=30)

Middle SEC(n=25)

Higher SEC(n=18)

Perf vs. SEC-CM (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.22 p-value = 0.203

66%38% 25%

21%

27%20%

14%35%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=29)

Middle SEC(n=26)

Higher SEC(n=20)

Perf vs. SEC-CM (High PC)

Gamma = 0.53 p-value = 0

Configuration Management vs. Performance

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.38 = Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.22 = Moderatefor the set of High Challenge programs 0.53 = Very Strong

43Quantifying the Effectiveness of SE01-Oct-2014© 2014 Carnegie Mellon University

46%33%

21%

38%37%

29%

17%31%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC (n=48) Middle SEC (n=52) Higher SEC (n=48)

Perf vs. SEC-PMC

Gamma = 0.38 p-value = 0

All

Higher Perf

Middle Perf

Lower Perf

27% 20% 14%

54%44%

41%

19%36% 45%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=26)

Middle SEC(n=25)

Higher SEC(n=22)

Perf vs. SEC-PMC (Low PC)

Gamma = 0.27 p-value = 0.092

68%44%

27%

18%30%

19%

14% 26%54%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lower SEC(n=22)

Middle SEC(n=27)

Higher SEC(n=26)

Perf vs. SEC-PMC (High PC)

Gamma = 0.53 p-value = 0

Program Monitoring & Control vs. Performance

The relationship:for the set of all programs 0.38 = Strongfor the set of Low Challenge programs 0.27 = Moderatefor the set of High Challenge programs 0.53 = Very Strong