Quantifying the influenceof recent circulation changes on European climatic trends

Monika Cahynová (1,2), Radan Huth (1)cahynova@ufa. cas.cz

(1) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic(2) Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague

COST733 Final Event, Vienna, 22-24 November 2010

Outlinewe want to assess the magnitude of climatic trends over Europe in1961-2000 that can be linked to changing frequency of circulation types (as opposed to changing climatic properties of circulation types)data

29 stations from the ECA&D project, daily Tmax, Tmin, precipitation8 objective catalogues from cat.1.2 (CKMEANS, GWT, Litynski, LUND, P27, PETISCO, SANDRA, TPCA), each in 3 variants with 9, 18, 27 CTsall COST733 domains except for D03 – lack of stations

methodsseasonal trends in the frequency of circulation typesseasonal climatic trends from station dataproportion of climatic trends linked to circulation changes - 2 methods of attribution usedcomparison of all results using classifications in D00 and small domains representing each of the stations, Alpine stations in D06+D07

Stations

Results – trends in the frequency of CTs

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

D00 D01 D02 D03 D04 D05 D06 D07 D08 D09 D10 D11

+ MAM + JJA + SON + DJF

CTs are unevenly represented

Percentage of days occupied by CTs withtrends in the seasonal frequencysignificant at the 95% level in 1961-2000

Changes in winter relative frequency ofCTs in GWTC10 in Central Europe(D07)

Upward (downward) stripes denote typeswith positive (negative) linear trendsignificant at the 95% level

Results – trends in the frequency of CTsMagnitude of significant trends in the frequency of CTs in GWTC10 (days perseason in 1961-2000)

W SW NW C A N NE E SE SD00 -5D01 -8D02 6 -3D03 -5D04D05D06D07D08D09 -8 5 3D10D11D00D01 -4D02D03D04D05D06 2D07 -2D08D09 -7D10 -2D11

sprin

gsu

mm

er

W SW NW C A N NE E SE SD00 9D01D02D03 3 4D04D05D06D07 3D08 3D09D10D11D00 16 -8 -3D01 6D02 7D03D04 13 13 -7 -7D05D06 9 3 -8D07 20 -6 -7D08 16 -3 -10 -8D09D10 5 -4 2 -6D11 14 -7

autu

mn

win

ter

Results – seasonal climatic mean and interannual variability

TX

-15-10-505

101520253035

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rG

lom

fjord

Osl

oSt

orno

way

Wad

ding

ton

Hel

sink

iO

este

rsun

dBa

mbe

rgH

anno

ver

Hoh

enpe

isse

nber

gKe

mpt

enKr

edar

ica

Pots

dam

Sonn

blic

kW

ien

Cal

aras

iKy

ivLu

gans

kBi

arrit

zVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Fini

keC

hani

a

[°C]MAMJJASONDJF

TN

-15-10-505

101520253035

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rG

lom

fjord

Osl

oSt

orno

way

Wad

ding

ton

Hel

sink

iO

este

rsun

dBa

mbe

rgH

anno

ver

Hoh

enpe

isse

nber

gKe

mpt

enKr

edar

ica

Pots

dam

Sonn

blic

kW

ien

Cal

aras

iKy

ivLu

gans

kBi

arrit

zVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Fini

keC

hani

a

[°C]

MAMJJASONDJF

RR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rBu

lken

Lien

_i_S

elbu

Stor

now

ayW

addi

ngto

nH

elsi

nki

Oes

ters

und

Bam

berg

Han

nove

rH

ohen

peis

senb

erg

Kem

pten

Kred

aric

aPo

tsda

mSo

nnbl

ick

Wie

nC

alar

asi

Kyiv

Luga

nsk

San_

Seba

stia

nVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Cha

nia

[mm

]

MAMJJASONDJF

(a) long-term seasonal mean

TX

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

4

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rG

lom

fjord

Osl

oSt

orno

way

Wad

ding

ton

Hel

sink

iO

este

rsun

dBa

mbe

rgH

anno

ver

Hoh

enpe

isse

nber

gKe

mpt

enKr

edar

ica

Pots

dam

Sonn

blic

kW

ien

Cal

aras

iKy

ivLu

gans

kBi

arrit

zVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Fini

keC

hani

a

[°C]MAMJJASONDJF

TN

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

4

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rG

lom

fjord

Osl

oSt

orno

way

Wad

ding

ton

Hel

sink

iO

este

rsun

dBa

mbe

rgH

anno

ver

Hoh

enpe

isse

nber

gKe

mpt

enKr

edar

ica

Pots

dam

Sonn

blic

kW

ien

Cal

aras

iKy

ivLu

gans

kBi

arrit

zVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Fini

keC

hani

a

[°C]

MAMJJASONDJF

RR

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rBu

lken

Lien

_i_S

elbu

Stor

now

ayW

addi

ngto

nH

elsi

nki

Oes

ters

und

Bam

berg

Han

nove

rH

ohen

peis

senb

erg

Kem

pten

Kred

aric

aPo

tsda

mSo

nnbl

ick

Wie

nC

alar

asi

Kyiv

Luga

nsk

San_

Seba

stia

nVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Cha

nia

[mm

]

(b) standard deviation of seasonal means

Results – seasonal climatic trends

trend significant at the 95% level

TX

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rG

lom

fjord

Osl

oSt

orno

way

Wad

ding

ton

Hel

sink

iO

este

rsun

dBa

mbe

rgH

anno

ver

Hoh

enpe

isse

nber

gKe

mpt

enKr

edar

ica

Pots

dam

Sonn

blic

kW

ien

Cal

aras

iKy

ivLu

gans

kBi

arrit

zVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Fini

keC

hani

a

[°C

/40

yrs] MAM

JJASONDJFMAM

TN

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rG

lom

fjord

Osl

oSt

orno

way

Wad

ding

ton

Hel

sink

iO

este

rsun

dBa

mbe

rgH

anno

ver

Hoh

enpe

isse

nber

gKe

mpt

enKr

edar

ica

Pots

dam

Sonn

blic

kW

ien

Cal

aras

iKy

ivLu

gans

kBi

arrit

zVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Fini

keC

hani

a

[°C

/40

yrs]

MAMJJASONDJF

RR

-200-100

0100

200300

400500

Dal

atan

giVe

stm

anna

eyja

rBu

lken

Lien

_i_S

elbu

Stor

now

ayW

addi

ngto

nH

elsi

nki

Oes

ters

und

Bam

berg

Han

nove

rH

ohen

peis

senb

erg

Kem

pten

Kred

aric

aPo

tsda

mSo

nnbl

ick

Wie

nC

alar

asi

Kyiv

Luga

nsk

San_

Seba

stia

nVa

lenc

iaBr

indi

siLa

rissa

Sara

jevo

Cha

nia

[mm

/sea

son/

40

yrs]

MAMJJASONDJFMAM

(a) trend per 40 years (1961-2000) magnitude of linear trend per 40 years (1961-2000)

massive winter warming at most stations

autumn cooling in Central and Eastern Europe – decreasing daily temperature range

few stations report significant trends in precipitation

2. Decomposition of climatic change that took place between the 1st and the2nd half of the period into frequency-related and within-type change.See e.g. Beck, Jacobeit, Jones (2007).

1. Ratio of “hypothetical” (circulation-induced) and observed long-term seasonal trends. The “hypothetical” trend is calculated from a daily series, constructed by assigning the long-term monthly mean of the given variable under the specific circulation type to each day. See e.g. Huth (2001).

Methods of attribution of climatic trends

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 8 5 1 5 5 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 2 2 1 1 1

degr

ees

Cel

sius

observed Tmax

January average Tmax under each CT

RR winter (DJF)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Bul

ken

D02

-Lie

n_i

D02

-Oes

ter

D04

-Sto

rno

D04

-Wad

din

D05

-Hel

sin

D05

-Oes

ter

D06

-Hoh

enp

D06

-Kem

pte

D06

-Kre

dar

D06

-Son

nbl

D06

-Wie

nD

07-B

ambe

rD

07-H

anno

vD

07-H

ohen

pD

07-K

empt

eD

07-K

reda

rD

07-P

otsd

aD

07-S

onnb

lD

07-W

ien

D08

-Cal

ara

D08

-Kyi

vD

08-L

ugan

sD

09-S

an S

eD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Cha

nia

RR spring (MAM)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Bul

ken

D02

-Lie

n_i

D02

-Oes

ter

D04

-Sto

rno

D04

-Wad

din

D05

-Hel

sin

D05

-Oes

ter

D06

-Hoh

enp

D06

-Kem

pte

D06

-Kre

dar

D06

-Son

nbl

D06

-Wie

nD

07-B

ambe

rD

07-H

anno

vD

07-H

ohen

pD

07-K

empt

eD

07-K

reda

rD

07-P

otsd

aD

07-S

onnb

lD

07-W

ien

D08

-Cal

ara

D08

-Kyi

vD

08-L

ugan

sD

09-S

an S

eD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Cha

nia

RR summer (JJA)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Bul

ken

D02

-Lie

n_i

D02

-Oes

ter

D04

-Sto

rno

D04

-Wad

din

D05

-Hel

sin

D05

-Oes

ter

D06

-Hoh

enp

D06

-Kem

pte

D06

-Kre

dar

D06

-Son

nbl

D06

-Wie

nD

07-B

ambe

rD

07-H

anno

vD

07-H

ohen

pD

07-K

empt

eD

07-K

reda

rD

07-P

otsd

aD

07-S

onnb

lD

07-W

ien

D08

-Cal

ara

D08

-Kyi

vD

08-L

ugan

sD

09-S

an S

eD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Cha

nia

RR autumn (SON)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Bul

ken

D02

-Lie

n_i

D02

-Oes

ter

D04

-Sto

rno

D04

-Wad

din

D05

-Hel

sin

D05

-Oes

ter

D06

-Hoh

enp

D06

-Kem

pte

D06

-Kre

dar

D06

-Son

nbl

D06

-Wie

nD

07-B

ambe

rD

07-H

anno

vD

07-H

ohen

pD

07-K

empt

eD

07-K

reda

rD

07-P

otsd

aD

07-S

onnb

lD

07-W

ien

D08

-Cal

ara

D08

-Kyi

vD

08-L

ugan

sD

09-S

an S

eD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Cha

nia

TN winter (DJF)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TN spring (MAM)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TN autumn (SON)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TN summer (JJA)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TX spring (MAM)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TX summer (JJA)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TX autumn (SON)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TX winter (DJF)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

+ Dxx+ D00

Ratio of circulation-induced (“hypothetical”) and observed trends 1961-2000 at stations where the observed trend is significant at the 95% level

Results of 24 classifications (8 methods*3 variants) from D00 and small domains

ad 1. Circulation-induced part of climatic trends

Ratio of circulation-induced (“hypothetical”) and observed trends 1961-2000 at stations where the observed trend is significant at the 95% level

Difference between classifications from D06 (Alps) and D07 (Central Europe)

ad 1. Circulation-induced part of climatic trends

Hoh

enpe

isse

nber

g

Kem

pten

Kre

daric

a

Son

nblic

k

Wie

n

TX-MAMTX-JJATX-DJFTN-MAMTN-JJATN-DJF

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

CKM

EAN

SC09

CKM

EAN

SC18

CKM

EAN

SC27

GW

TC10

GW

TC18

GW

TC26

LITA

DVE

LITC

18LI

TTC

LUN

DC

09LU

ND

C18

LUN

DC

27P2

7C08

P27C

16P2

7C27

PETI

SCO

C09

PETI

SCO

C18

PETI

SCO

C27

SAN

DR

AC09

SAN

DR

AC18

SAN

DR

AC27

TPC

AC09

TPC

AC18

TPC

AC27

D06

-D07

Proportion of climatic change that can be attributed to changing frequency of CTs

ad 2. Circulation-induced part of climatic change between the 1st and the 2nd half of the period

TX spring (MAM)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TX autumn (SON)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TX winter (DJF)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TN spring (MAM)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TN autumn (SON)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TN winter (DJF)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

RR spring (MAM)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Bul

ken

D02

-Lie

n_i

D02

-Oes

ter

D04

-Sto

rno

D04

-Wad

din

D05

-Hel

sin

D05

-Oes

ter

D06

-Hoh

enp

D06

-Kem

pte

D06

-Kre

dar

D06

-Son

nbl

D06

-Wie

nD

07-B

ambe

rD

07-H

anno

vD

07-H

ohen

pD

07-K

empt

eD

07-K

reda

rD

07-P

otsd

aD

07-S

onnb

lD

07-W

ien

D08

-Cal

ara

D08

-Kyi

vD

08-L

ugan

sD

09-S

an S

eD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Cha

nia

RR summer (JJA)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Bul

ken

D02

-Lie

n_i

D02

-Oes

ter

D04

-Sto

rno

D04

-Wad

din

D05

-Hel

sin

D05

-Oes

ter

D06

-Hoh

enp

D06

-Kem

pte

D06

-Kre

dar

D06

-Son

nbl

D06

-Wie

nD

07-B

ambe

rD

07-H

anno

vD

07-H

ohen

pD

07-K

empt

eD

07-K

reda

rD

07-P

otsd

aD

07-S

onnb

lD

07-W

ien

D08

-Cal

ara

D08

-Kyi

vD

08-L

ugan

sD

09-S

an S

eD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Cha

nia

RR autumn (SON)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Bul

ken

D02

-Lie

n_i

D02

-Oes

ter

D04

-Sto

rno

D04

-Wad

din

D05

-Hel

sin

D05

-Oes

ter

D06

-Hoh

enp

D06

-Kem

pte

D06

-Kre

dar

D06

-Son

nbl

D06

-Wie

nD

07-B

ambe

rD

07-H

anno

vD

07-H

ohen

pD

07-K

empt

eD

07-K

reda

rD

07-P

otsd

aD

07-S

onnb

lD

07-W

ien

D08

-Cal

ara

D08

-Kyi

vD

08-L

ugan

sD

09-S

an S

eD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Cha

nia

RR winter (DJF)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Bul

ken

D02

-Lie

n_i

D02

-Oes

ter

D04

-Sto

rno

D04

-Wad

din

D05

-Hel

sin

D05

-Oes

ter

D06

-Hoh

enp

D06

-Kem

pte

D06

-Kre

dar

D06

-Son

nbl

D06

-Wie

nD

07-B

ambe

rD

07-H

anno

vD

07-H

ohen

pD

07-K

empt

eD

07-K

reda

rD

07-P

otsd

aD

07-S

onnb

lD

07-W

ien

D08

-Cal

ara

D08

-Kyi

vD

08-L

ugan

sD

09-S

an S

eD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Cha

nia

TX summer (JJA)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

TN summer (JJA)

D01

-Dal

ata

D01

-Ves

tma

D02

-Glo

mfj

D02

-Oes

ter

D02

-Osl

oD

04-S

torn

oD

04-W

addi

nD

05-H

elsi

nD

05-O

este

rD

06-H

ohen

pD

06-K

empt

eD

06-K

reda

rD

06-S

onnb

lD

06-W

ien

D07

-Bam

ber

D07

-Han

nov

D07

-Hoh

enp

D07

-Kem

pte

D07

-Kre

dar

D07

-Pot

sda

D07

-Son

nbl

D07

-Wie

nD

08-C

alar

aD

08-K

yiv

D08

-Lug

ans

D09

-Bia

rriD

09-V

alen

cD

10-B

rindi

D10

-Lar

iss

D10

-Sar

aje

D11

-Fin

ike

D11

-Cha

nia

+ Dxx+ D00

higher variability both between stations and within stations

Averages of stations with significant observed trends

ad 1. Ratio of circulation-induced (“hypothetical”) and observed trends 1961-2000

ad 2. Proportion of climatic change between the average of 1961-1980 and 1981-2000that can be attributed to changing frequency of CTs

TX

-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.1

0.20.30.40.50.6

CK

ME

AN

SC

09C

KM

EA

NS

C18

CK

ME

AN

SC

27G

WTC

10G

WTC

18G

WTC

26LI

TAD

VE

LITC

18LI

TTC

LUN

DC

09LU

ND

C18

LUN

DC

27P

27C

08P

27C

16P

27C

27P

ETI

SC

OC

09P

ETI

SC

OC

18P

ETI

SC

OC

27S

AN

DR

AC

09S

AN

DR

AC

18S

AN

DR

AC

27TP

CA

C09

TPC

AC

18TP

CA

C27

ratio

MAM-Dxx JJA-Dxx SON-Dxx DJF-DxxMAM-D00 JJA-D00 SON-D00 DJF-D00

TN

-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.1

0.20.30.40.50.6

CK

ME

AN

SC

09C

KM

EA

NS

C18

CK

ME

AN

SC

27G

WTC

10G

WTC

18G

WTC

26LI

TAD

VE

LITC

18LI

TTC

LUN

DC

09LU

ND

C18

LUN

DC

27P

27C

08P

27C

16P

27C

27P

ETI

SC

OC

09P

ETI

SC

OC

18P

ETI

SC

OC

27S

AN

DR

AC

09S

AN

DR

AC

18S

AN

DR

AC

27TP

CA

C09

TPC

AC

18TP

CA

C27

ratio

Comparison of individual classifications

TX

-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.1

0.20.30.40.50.6

CK

ME

AN

SC

09C

KM

EA

NS

C18

CK

ME

AN

SC

27G

WTC

10G

WTC

18G

WTC

26LI

TAD

VE

LITC

18LI

TTC

LUN

DC

09LU

ND

C18

LUN

DC

27P

27C

08P

27C

16P

27C

27P

ETI

SC

OC

09P

ETI

SC

OC

18P

ETI

SC

OC

27S

AN

DR

AC

09S

AN

DR

AC

18S

AN

DR

AC

27TP

CA

C09

TPC

AC

18TP

CA

C27

ratio

MAM-Dxx JJA-Dxx SON-Dxx DJF-DxxMAM-D00 JJA-D00 SON-D00 DJF-D00

TN

-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.1

0.20.30.40.50.6

CK

ME

AN

SC

09C

KM

EA

NS

C18

CK

ME

AN

SC

27G

WTC

10G

WTC

18G

WTC

26LI

TAD

VE

LITC

18LI

TTC

LUN

DC

09LU

ND

C18

LUN

DC

27P

27C

08P

27C

16P

27C

27P

ETI

SC

OC

09P

ETI

SC

OC

18P

ETI

SC

OC

27S

AN

DR

AC

09S

AN

DR

AC

18S

AN

DR

AC

27TP

CA

C09

TPC

AC

18TP

CA

C27

ratio

Conclusions

We have studied seasonal linear trends in the frequency of CTs in 24classifications in cat. 1.2 and their relations with trends of Tmax, Tmin, andprecipitation in European regions in the period 1961-2000.

Significant trends in the frequency of CTs occur mostly in winter in domains00 and 04 through 11, and also in summer in the Mediterranean.

Climatic trends can be only partly explained by the changing frequency ofCTs, the link being the strongest in winter. In the other seasons, within-type climatic trends are responsible for a major part of the observed trends.

Classifications in the small domains are usually more tightly connected withclimatic trends than those in D00, except for the northernmost stations.

There are large differences between results obtained with individualclassifications – therefore all studies using just a limited number of themshould be taken with a grain of salt.

References

Cahynová M., Huth R. (2009): Are recent climatic trends in Europecaused by circulation changes? (poster)EGU General Assembly

Cahynová M., Huth R. (2010): Relations of atmospheric circulationand recent climatic variability and trends in Europe – a comparativeapproach based on the COST733 classifications database (poster)10th EMS/8th ECAC

Cahynová M. (2010): The influence of long-term changes ofatmospheric circulation on observed trends of surface climaticelements in the Czech Republic and EuropePhD thesis to be defended on December 14, 2010