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http://edition.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/conditions/04/03/brazil.dengu
e/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
Kort
film?
Ngt
om
tröskeleffekt
Land use change (deforestation, urban sprawl) Rapid urbanization
Infrastructural development (esp. irrigation systems, creation of new urban ”habitats”)
Eroded health infrastructure in the 1980s and 1990s
”Quick fix” solutions create more resistant vectors
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Dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2007-2008
1. Fast evolving surprise with the ability to create a crisis that cascades across system boundaries, and spatial scales
2. Complex and multilevel underlying drivers
3. Recombination potential with additional stresses, such as poverty, eroded health infrastructure creates
A New Generation of Ecological Crisis?
Avian flu (H5N1)
“Wheat rust” Ug99
Food crisis/agflation
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No repeated global assessment of ecosystem change (c.f. IPCC)
Fragmented social, economical and ecological data – trends impossible, geographic gaps.
Economic evaluation of ES
Global change in the political landscape
Decentralization”One of the most important global policy experiments””Increased problem solving capacity””Decentralization can lead to more efficient governance, better link to local context” -> higher capacity to deal with complex problems Forest co-management, water management, ecosystem management, development
Public-Private Partnerships
– formalized collaboration between state actors and private/non-state actorsExpectation: more flexible and efficient way to reach political aims.Not privatization – not state controlled
Water, health, biodiversity conservation, etc.
Non-Governmental Organizations
Increased number and participation of NGOs, ”think-tanks”, epistemic communities at all political levels.
Biodiversity, climate policy, fisheries policy, m.m.
International agreements
Increased influence of multilateral agreements on national policy
e.g. Kyoto-protocol, EU:s Framework Directives, Convention on Biological Diversity, World Trade Organization, etc
1960: 20 , 1990: 140, 2005: more than 700
Central policy-maker (e.g. environmental ministry)
Regional or local state authorities
Local natural resource users
Decision- making
Implementation and mo
Behavioral response
Centralized decision- making
Decision-making, implementation, Monitoring, partnerships
Central policy-maker (e.g. environmental ministry)
Regional or local state authorities
Local natural resource users
Decision- making, implementatio n, negotiations, partnershipsImplementation, monitonegotiations, partners
International norms, agreements
Decentraliz ation
Non-state actors
Decision-making in complex governance systems
Institutions, organizations or networks?
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WHO
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Institutions, organizations or networks?
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WHO
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Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation
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Private Business
Global Environmental Change + Global ”Governance” Change
Are they compatible? How does this affect our capacity to deal with complex, non-linear, multilevel
social-ecological systems?
What do YOU think?
High Medium Low Very Low No data/n.a.
”Good Governance” according to the World Bank:
Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of
Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule
of Law, and Control of Corruption.
High Medium Low Very Low No data/n.a.
Does ”good governance” matter for protecting vital
ecosystems?
Forest Cover Change
Biodiversity (bird population)
High levels of corruption
Low levels of corruption
Temporal misfits
The Sahel region 1950s-60s
”Roving Bandits” F. Berkes et. al. 2006
Cod stock collapse, Newfoundland, (Canada)Thresholds misfit
Methane outburst
Biostability/ collapse Amazonian region
Speed of change
Fast
Slow
Uncerta inty
Lo w
Hi gh
Spati al
distrLimite d
Very large
Major governance puzzles - institutional diversity
Enhances our capacity to deal with with uncertainty and change. Elinor Ostrom: no ”blue-prints” for ecosystem management. Folke: helps us recover and innovate. ”Portfolio of
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Inst. A
Inst. A
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Inst. AInst. A
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Inst. AInst. A
Inst. A
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Disturbance
Social, technical, economical, environmental change
Collapse
Inst. B
Inst. A
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Inst. E
Inst. D
Inst. B
Inst. F
Inst. EInst. F
Inst. C
Inst. G
Inst. C
Inst. A
Inst. 0
Inst. A
UK and the ”Mad cow disease” (BSE),1996
- surprise, decision-making under severe time stress and high scientific and
social uncertainty- Lack of central
coordination, communication between key decision makers, and to
the public, poor.
Margaret Thatchers fault!
Gerodimos (2004). Public Adm. 82(4).
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Financial crisis -rapid global coordination, adaptive strategies, huge investments despite cascading events and high uncertainty
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Financial Crisis vs Earth System Crisis
1) Earlier and similar economic crises provide a number of “lessons learned”
2) Key decision-makers and central institutions promptly identified
3) Fi i l t d idl d ith
Major governance puzzles – centralization vs decentralizationDecentralized systems
+ possibility to innovate in the face of surprises, early warning, and prompt response-can be overwelmed by disturbance, fail to coordinate with other ”small” units
Centralized systems+ have overview, track long term changes, compensate for maladaptive lower units- too far away to detect early warnings, and innovate. Information
Information overload
The SARS crises
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Too Good to be True?
“High Reliability
Organizations” - organizations
with the capacity to
cope with both incremental change and catastrophic
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Capacity to collect and analyze very large amounts of information, detect early warning signals, and facilitate fast coordination of large number of actors.
Decision-making dependent on the type of change in environment.
High capacity for learning after crises, strong incentives to report and take initiatives to repair
Is it possible? Governing Epidemics
Bild epidemics
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Bubonic Plage, Surat (India)1994In 1994 the spread of
bubonic plague in the city of Surat deaths of 57 people, significant economic losses, and social and political effects. Over 300,000 people deserted the city (in two days!)
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How small innovations and perceived crisis makes a
global difference!
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WHOCountry A
Country B
- Collaboration between over 120 actors (governments, ministries, laboratories, NGO’s)
- prompt coordination to secure fast response
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Global Outbreak Alert and Response N
Pre-crises phase
Warning Confirmation phase
Warning Response phase
We are far away from such a system…WHO/GOARN
Early warnings: builds on both ”formal” and ”informal data” (GPHIN, ProMed). 1,1 million Euro/Yr
Response: Prompt in collaboration with WHO, regional offices, NGO’s, health ministries, technical labs.
Tools: coordinating arenas, adhoc groups, secure webpages, teleconferences.
UNEP Division for Early Warning and Assement
Early warnings: builds on both formal data only. Acknowledged bias and lack of data. 77,5 million Euro/yr
Response: Recommendations to governments -> slow or non-existing
No repeated global assessment of ecosystem change (c.f. IPCC)
Fragmented social, economical and ecological data – trends impossible, geographic gaps.
Economic evaluation of ES
incl. GEO-4, 'tipping points'
Is there any hope?
Yes!
International Panel for Ecosystem Services
(IPES)?
Both incremental change
and
abrupt surprising change
including cascading
dynamics
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Eco ”tipping points”change at the tipping point sets in motion mutuallyinforcing feedback loops that propel the system on
a completely new course.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
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QuickTime™ and a decompressor
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QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
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QuickTime™ and a decompressor
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• Innovation research tends to focus on innovations in business and technical systems
• Can they be applied for SES innovations?
• Institutional context? Policy interventions?
• Global orchestration?
Governance for innovation
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• Solutions at the interface - technology, ecology and social sphere
• Positive ”tipping points” - escalating improvements, not only crises.
• Quality of Governance - include dynamics of SES.
• Information technology could have revolutionary impact on governance.
• Building on past successes - HRO,
Summing up
1.Vilket svenskt politiskt parti hamnar närmast tankesättet att komplexa system kräver diversitet, ständig anpassning och lärande? Varför? Varför inte?
2.Är det önskvärt att formulera ekosystemkriser som en säkerhetsfråga, dvs som en politisk fråga som ska behandlas med samma dignitet och strukturer som exempelvis internationell terrorism och
Adaptive co-management
Adaptive co-management; a combinatipromotes multilevel institutional lishared responsibility between a diveactors, combination of knowledge so
as well as learning.
(Olsson et. al. 2004, Berkes et. al
Example: Kristianstad (SE), Krüger Park (SA), Bali water temples (Indonesia), Tiszra
(Central Europe),…
Network based governance relies heavily on social coordination
and control, collective sanctions and reputations ->
requires repeated interactions, restricting the numbers of actors in networks, often geographical proximity.
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Fish and Ebola virus
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Fish stock decrea
se
Increa sed bushme at huntin
g
Coral reef
Agro- ecosyst
ems
Climat e
change
1. Weak signals bring about strong action
2. Decision-making dependent on type of change.
3. High investment in learning after “near-misses” and crises
Global Environmental Governance after Kyoto
Think about the political challenges…
”Early response” coordinators- legal frameworks that allow actors to act (e.g. International Health Regulations)
- unhindered information flows between a diversity of actors, from local to global.
- informal, personal contacts and trust, and ”low-tech” interactions.
Not just theory…
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