racing to profit cheltenham 2016: trends and stats...

Copyright: Josh Wright 2016

RACING TO PROFIT

CHELTENHAM 2016: TRENDS AND STATS GUIDE

Hello,

Welcome and thank you for purchasing a copy of my trends and stats guide for this year’s Cheltenham Festival. I hope that it helps you enjoy this year’s racing more than ever before and with any luck helps you (and I!) in that constant battle against the old enemy.

Once I have explained a bit about the guide and my approach you will find the following:-

Trends and Stats for all 10 Festival Handicaps

Trends and Stats for 4 Bonus Races

Following the trends and stats I have highlighted what could be a ‘winning profile’. A top level look at all handicap hurdles and handicap chases, with the aim of finding

common stats/trends/patterns

Some trainer based micro angles/profiles for the handicaps.

How to use this guide…

As with all trends/stats guides that I produce, I present the stats as I have found them, for

you to interpret and follow as you see fit. We all have a different approach to racing and

how we analyse races, especially when using historical trends/stats as a starting point. You

may favour certain stats over others, for example. I have highlighted what may be a

‘winning profile’ as a starting point, but you may disagree! That ‘winning profile’ is very

much my subjective interpretation of the stats I have found. In general this profile does not

exclude any of the previous winners of that race and should help with shortlisting.

The other information is there for you to use as you see fit. You may wish to follow the

trainer micro systems/profiles systematically or use this information to help with your own

analysis.

I hope you enjoy this report and the Festival.

Thanks again,

Josh

Let’s get to it….


First, what follows is the checklist that I use when analysing a ‘big race’. This is the format for all of the races that will follow in this guide. The list below is annotated to explain any

trends/stats that may be unclear.

Where a stats type/heading is not included in a certain race, you can assume that I attached

no significance to the stats I unearthed.

VIDEO: If you would like to watch an ‘over the shoulder’ video of how I use this checklist to analyse a big race, using Horse Race Base, you can do so HERE>>>. In this video I use the

Coral Cup as my example race.

***

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

The finishing position of the horse in its most recent race

Horse Age

The age of the horses

Days Since Run

The number of days past since the horse last ran on the racetrack

Horse Weight

The weight that the horse carried on its back during the race.

Horse Official Rating

The official British Horseracing Authority rating of the horse. The ‘OR’. (Official Rating)

Season Runs

The number of times the horse had ran this season, which this season started on the

26th April 2015.

Wins (Distance)

How many times had the horse won at the distance of the race in question? I rarely

use this stat as it isn’t that useful, but every now and then there are some interesting stats.

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

The furthest that the horse had ever run over. For example, in a 2m race you may find

that those horses that had ran over 24f or further in their career are 0/50, 0 places in

this race historically – I would suggest they may not have the pace for 2m if

connections have tried them over 3m or further. That may be an exaggeration but it

demonstrates this angle!

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

Likewise, similar to above. The furthest the horse had ever won over in their career.

http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/test-post-2/




Position In Market

The ordered position of the winners in the market. In some races, maybe not

Cheltenham, all the winners may have come from the top 3 in the market for

example. That can help narrow down a field, or give you a good steer as to where to

look!

Odds

The odds of the winners to Industry Starting Price

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

Great British Bred (GB – denoted in the Racing Post by a blank when looking at the

horse. If no symbol as below, assume they are GB bred)

Irish Bred (IRE)

French Bred (FR)

USA (USA)

German (GER)

New Zealand (NZ)

There are others, hopefully self-explanatory.

Headgear

The record of those wearing headgear, and the different types.

Weight (excl J-Claim)

The weight of the horse excluding the claim of the jockey. So, as it would appear on

the racecard, ignoring any jockey claim

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

The ordered position of weight carried by horse compared to competitors, excluding

jockey claims. Ie – the record of Top Weights, or Bottom Weights

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

How many times had the competitors run in the previous 90 days

H – Run (career)

How many career runs had the horse had, in total.

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

How many times had the horse run in this type of race – for the handicaps this will

refer to the number of runs a horse had had in handicaps.

H-Run (NH Race Type)

How many times had the horse run in this type of national hunt race type – Chase,

Hurdle or National Hunt Flat.

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)

How many times had the horse run in this type of handicap national hunt race type –

so for a handicap chase, it will look at the record of the horse in handicap chases.


H- Run (track)

How many times had the horse run at the track. (so, Cheltenham on this occassion)

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

How many times had the horse run at the track in this type of national hunt race

type. So, for a chase, how many times had the horse run in chases at Cheltenham.

H-Run (Fences)

For chases only. How many times had the horse run over these types of fences.

Cheltenham, as defined by HorseRaceBase are ‘very stiff fences’. They also define Haydock and Aintree’s Grand National fences as very stiff. So, this stat, if applicable, will look at the record of horses in chases over those fences. Given recent

modifications to many fences, in particular Aintree, this stats may well become less

relevant.

H-Run (Last Win)

How many times horse has run since last winning. This is useful to determine whether

typical winners of this race were generally ‘in form’. Ie, 18/18 had won at least once in their last two starts.

H-Run (Last Placing)

Likewise, how many times had a horse run since last placing? This will be places in

line with bookmakers’ rules. So, for a 5 runner race you have to be in the top 2 to place. 16 runner+ handicap would mean finishing 4th was placed, for example.

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

How many times had the horse won in their career to date.

H-Win (NH Race Type)

How many times had the horse won this type of national hunt race type.

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

How many times had the horse won in this type of handicap or non-handicap race

type. So, for the 10 handicaps I look at his will show the number of times a horse had

won in all handicaps they had run in.

H-Win (Hcap NH)

Horse wins in this type of handicap national hunt race type. So I a handicap hurdle,

like the Coral Cup, how many times had the horses won a handicap hurdle previously.

H-Win (Class)

How many times had the horse won in the class? For Horse Race Base they consider

G1,G2,G3,Listed as separate classes, rather than all as just Class 1s.

H-Win (Grp/Grd/Lst)

How many wins had the horse won in this type of class before. Only applies to those

races that are this class – so Graded or Listed. If the trends race is a C2 Handicap this

stat shows no results.

H-Win (Season)

Horse wins this season.

H-Win (Track)

H-Win (Track/NH Code)

H-Win (Festival)

Had the horses/winners won at the Cheltenham Festival previously?


Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

The best finishing position of the horses in their previous three runs.

Best in Five Runs

The best finishing position of the horses in their previous five runs.

Class Move

The record of those moving in class from their last run. A move from a Grade 2 down

to a Grade 3, for example, counts as a move down of one class.

Distance Move

The record of those moving certain distances from their previous race.

Highest Class Run

What is the highest class the horses had ever run in?

Highest Class Win

What is the highest class that the horse had ever won at? For example this can

highlight whether previous Grade 1 winners have a decent or poor record in the race

concerned.

H-Places (NH Race type)

How many times had the horse placed in the national hunt race type concerned?

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

What national hunt race type did they run in last time out (LTO) and how well did

they do. So, in a chase for example, we can see how well those performed that ran in

a hurdle race LTO.

(LR) Hcap/Non

Did they have their last run in a handicap or non-handicap, and their record?

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

What class did they run in LTO? Ie in some races, a C2 handicap say, those that ran in

C4 or below may have a very poor record.

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

The record of those that ran in a graded or listed level race LTO?

(LR) No. of Runners

How many runners competed in their last race, and what where their records. I

included this because most Festival races are large fields, and in particular I wanted

to see the record of those that may have ran in a small field race 2-5 runners say,

LTO. For some races this may be a negative. An interesting stat nonetheless.

(LR) Track

What track did they run at LTO?

Trainers (of interest)

The record of certain trainers. Like with all stats/headings I use my own

interpretation to decide who is included. In general I will list all those responsible for

winners, and then those that have had at least 10 runners without a win. Sometimes

I will include other trainers if I deem them a big name, ie a Willie Mullins being 0/8, 0

places or something.


IMPORTANT: Please note that I use Horse Race Base for my analysis and my thanks goes to

Chris and his team for providing such a great piece of kit.

HRB does not take account of non UK/Irish form as far as I am aware. As such all those with

form abroad (mainly French) should be treated slightly differently. The relevant stats/trends

should be applied to their UK form and used with more discretion.


CHELTENHAM TRENDS AND STATS ANALYSIS

DAY 1

Time Race Distance Type

13.30 The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Race 2m abt ½f Hurdle

14.10 The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase abt 2m Chase

14.50 The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Steeple Chase 3m abt 1f Chase

15.30 The Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m abt ½f Hurdle

16.10 The OLBG Mares’ Hurdle Race 2m abt 4f Hurdle

16.50 The National Hunt Steeple Chase Abt 4m Chase

17.30 The CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices’ Handicap Chase (0-140) 2m abt 4½f Chase

14.50: Grade 3 Handicap Chase

18 renewals since 1997

341 runners in that time, 67 placed horses

***

TRENDS

16/18 Top 6 Last Time Out (LTO)

16/233 runners, 47 places…89% winners, 68% runners, 70% placed horses

Fell LTO: 0/5, 0 places

PU LTO: 1/39, 7 places…5.5% winners, 11% runners, 10% places

18/18 Aged 7-11

11 or older: 1/53, 3 places…5.5% winners, 16% runners, 4.5% places 6 year olds: 0/20, 3 places

18/18 Ran 16-120 days ago

1-15 days: 0/32, 2 places

121 days or more: 0/17, 6 places…5% of runners, 9% or placed horses

18/18 Carried 11-10 or less

0/12, 2 places carried 11-11 or more

18/18 Rated OR 149 or below

0/31, 3 places rated OR 150 or more


0/13, 1 place rated OR 126 or below

18/18 Had 2 or more Runs This Season

0 or 1 run this season only: 0/40, 9 places…12% runners, 13% placed horses

MARKET/ODDS

14/18 Top 8 in market

14/163 runners, 48 places…78% winners, 48% runners, 72% places

Nothing significant with odds, those priced 22/1 or over: 4/139…don’t be put off by the odds would be the overall message from that.

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 3/68, 13 places

IRE: 14/187, 41 places

FR: 1/70, 12 places

WEIGHT (Excluding Jockey Claims)

10-12 or less: 13/203, 37 places…72% winners…60% runners…55% places

11-7 or more: 1/42, 8 places…5.5% winners…12% runners…12% places 11-11 or more: 0/16, 2 places

ORDER IN THE WEIGHTS (Excluding Jockey Claims)

TOP 3 (including joint 3rd, Joint second etc):

o 1/61, 10 places…5.5% winners…18% winners…15% places

***

The ‘Running’ Profile of Winners…

Horse Runs In Career

3-20 : 15/203 runners, 50 places…83% winners…60% runners…75% places

27+ : 1/70, 6 places…5.5% winners…21% runners…9% places

0,1,2 : 0/13, 2 places.


Horse Runs in Handicaps

0-11: 17/233, 56 places…94.5% winners…68% runners…84% places

12+ : 1/108, 11 places

16+ : 0/57, 4 places

Horse Runs in Chases

0-1 : 0/14, 2 places

2-14: 17/233 runners, 58 places…94.5% winners…68% runners…87% places


18+: 0/60, 2 places

Horse Runs in Handicap Chases

13 + : 0/48, 0 places

0-4 : 11/152, 38 places…61% winners…45% runners…57% places

5-12 : 7/141, 29 places…39% winners…41% runners…43% places

Horse Runs Track

7+ : 0/48, 3 places

Horse Runs Track (in Chases)

0 : 9/105, 25 places…50% winners…31% runners…37% places

6+ : 0/39, 0 places

***

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics of Winners

Horse Wins in Career

0 : 0/18, 2 places

10+ : 0/21, 1 place

Horse Wins in Handicaps

0,1,2: 17/233, 57 places…94.5% winners…68% runners…85% places

3+ : 1/108, 10 places..5.5% winners…32% runners…15% places

Horse Wins in Chases

0 : 0/23, 3 places

6+ : 0/31, 2 places

1-3: 16/208, 52 places…89% winners…61% runners…78% places


4+5: 2/79, 10 places…11% winners…23% runners…15% places

Horse Wins in Handicap Chases

0-1 : 15/211 runners, 53 places…83% winners…62% runners…79% places

2 : 2/62, 9 places…11% winners…18% runners…13% places


Horse Wins Track in Chases

0 : 17/243 runners, 54 places…94.5% winners…71% runners…81% places

1 : 1/77, 11 places…5.5% winners…23% runners…16% places

2+ : 0/21, 2 places

***

Miscellaneous 2

Horses Best Position in last 3 runs

Top 3 (at least once): 16/273, 58 places…89% winners…80% runners…87% places

No Top 3 finish last 3 runs: 2/64, 8 places…11% winners…19% runners…12% places

Distance Move From previous Run

Up 4.5F or more: 0/29, 2 places

Horse Places in Chases

9 + : 0/64, 6 places

***

The Horses Last Run

TRACK (of interest)

Doncaster: 4/24, 8 places

Haydock: 3/43, 12 places

Cheltenham: 2/52, 11 places

Kempton: 1/39, 4 places

Sandown: 1/24, 4 places

Other with 1 win:

Wincanton/Gowran/Aintree/Uttoxeter/Warwick/Chepstow/Leopardstown

Newbury: 0/31, 3 places

Ascot: 0/16, 3 places


***

TRAINERS (of interest)

Jonjo O’Neill: 3/17, 5 places

A King: 2/13, 3 places

1 Win each: Tizzard/Moffatt/Morrison/Bailey/D Pipe/Mulholland/Doumen/Roche/ N

Henderson/A J Martin

Miss Venetia Williams: 0/17, 1 place

P F Nicholls: 0/19, 4 places

Nigel Twiston-Davies: 0/23, 2 places

P J Hobbs: 0/10, 0 places

***

THE WINNING PROFILE?

OR 149 or below

2 or more runs this season

0-15 handicap runs

17 or fewer chase runs

12 or fewer handicap chase runs

6 or fewer runs at track

5 or fewer chase runs at track

1-5 or chase wins

8 or fewer places (inc wins) in chases


17.30 Novices Handicap Chase

11 previous renewals since 2005

215 runners, 44 placed horses

***

TRENDS

Previous Place

10/11 Top 3 LTO

o 10/146 runners, 32 places…91% winners…68% runners…73% places

0/10, 0 places Fell/UR LTO

0/6, 0 places PU LTO

Horse Age

11/11 aged 8 or younger

o 0/23, 5 places aged 9 or older

10/11 aged 7 or younder


1/46, 10 places aged 8…9% winners…21% runners…23% places

Days Since Run

11/11 ran 16-60 days ago


0/20, 3 places ran 1-15 days ago

0/36, 4 places ran 61+ days ago

Horse Weight

10/11 carried 11-7 or less

o 1/42, 8 places carried more…9% winners…20% runners…18% places

o 1/36, 6 places carried 10-10 or less…9% winners…17% runners…14% places


0/14, 1 place OR 143+

Position In Market


o 0/92, 10 places 11th or higher


Odds

11/11…20/1 or shorter

o 0/79, 9 places 22/1+

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Headgear

Blinkers: 0/20, 7 places


11-12 / 12-0: 2/6, 2 places

The ‘Running’ Characteristics

H -Run (90 days)

0: 0/13, 0 places

H – Run (career)

1-6: 0/21, 2 places

H- Run (Hncp)

10/11 had 7 or fewer runs in all handicaps

o 8+ : 1/46, 8 places…9% winners…21% runners…18% places


10/11 had 6 or fewer chase runs


H- RUN (Hncp Chases)

0: 6/102, 26 places

H- Run (track)

0: 2/79, 9 places

1: 8/68, 20 places

2: 1/34, 7 places

3+ : 0/36, 8 places


H- Run (Track-CHASES)

0: 7/156, 28 places

1: 4/41, 13 places


1&2: 11/11 places on at least once of last two starts

o Placed Last Start: 10/196, 28 places

o Placed penultimate start: 1/46, 6 places

Did Not Place one of last two starts:

o 0/49, 10 places


H-Win (Chases)

0-2: 10/11

o 3+ : 1/27, 3 places

H-Win (Season)


3+ : 1/35, 4 places

H-Win (Track)

0: 11/184, 38 places

1+ : 0/31, 6 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

1st or 2nd: 11/195, 40 places

Not 1st or 2nd in any of last 3 starts: 0/20, 4 places

Highest Class Win

C2&3: 10/143, 30 places…91% winners…67% runners…68% places

Grade 1&2: 0/26, 3 places

Gr3: 1/9, 2 places

C4 or below: 0/24, 5 places




Hurdles: 0/16, 4 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

G1: 0/14, 1 place

G2: 2/27, 10 places

G3/Listed: 0/12, 2 places

Track LTO (of interest)



1 win each:

Wetherby/Leopardstown/Exeter/Hexham/Musselburgh/Doncaster/Folkestone



Wincanton: 0/9, 0 places

Newbury: 0/15, 1 place

Haydock: 0/9, 1 place


Ferdy Murphy: 2/6, 2 places (only trainer with 2 wins)

1 win each: T J Taffe/J R Fanshawe/ Kieran Burke/P Nicholls/P Hobbs/N

Henderson/M Bradstock/Jamie Snowden/Miss R Curtis

C Longsdon: 0/7, 1 place

Jonjo O’Neil: 0/10, 2 places

Miss V Williams: 0/12, 1 place

D Pipe: 0/7, 1 place

NTD: 0/7, 2 places

***



Aged 8 or younger

Ran 16-60 days ago

Top 10 in market

20/1 or shorter SP

7+ career runs

Placed on at least one of previous 2 starts

Previous win at track a slight negative

Had won above C4 level

***


DAY 2


13.30 The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Race 2m abt 5f Hurdle

14.10 The RSA Steeple Chase 3m abt ½

f

Chase

14.50 The Coral Cup Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle Race) 2m abt 5f Hurdle

15.30 The Betway Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase Abt 2m Chase

16.10 The Glenfarclas Cross Country Steeple Chase 3m 6f Chase

16.50 The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race 2m abt ½f Hurdle

17.30 The Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open NH

Flat Race)

2m abt ½f Bumper

***

14.50 The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle



1 winner down as having ‘no run’ in Horse Race Base, most likely had no UK form.

***

TRENDS

Previous Place

14/17 (that ‘had run’) Top 6 LTO


o Fell LTO: 0/16, 1 place

o PU LTO: 0/7, 0 places

o 7th or worse: 3/119 runners, 10 places…17% winners…25% runners…14% places

Horse Age

18/18 Aged 5-9

o 10 yo+ : 0/31, 3 places

o 9yo: 1/43, 3 places…5.5% winners…9% runners…4% places

o 5-8: 17/409, 66 places…94.5% winners, 85% runners…92% places


Days Since Run

17/17 (‘with a run’) ran 16-120 days ago

o 1-15 days: 0/37, 2 places

o 16-30 days: 2/160, 18 places

o 31-60 days: 11/182, 32 places

o 61-120 days: 4/78, 11 places

o 121+: 0/21, 8 places

31-120 days, 15/260 runners, 43 places…83% winners…54% runners…60% places

Season Runs

18/18 had 0-7 runs this season

o 8+ : 0/37, 3 places


17/17 RAN over max distance of 24.5 F

o 0/61, 2 places had RUN over 25f or further in career

Odds

17/17 priced 40/1 or shorter SP

o 50/1 + : 0/94, 2 places

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 3/121, 17 places


FR: 8/88, 14 places

USA: 0/24, 4 places

GER: 0/15, 1 place

Headgear

Cheekpieces: 0/19, 3 places


Visor: 2/21, 2 places

Hood: 0/9, 0 places


Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

Clear Top Weight: 0/15, 3 places


H- Run (Hncp)

14/18 had 0-6 handicap runs

o 14/264, 47 places…78% winners…55% runners…65% places



15/18 had 0-9 Hurdle Runs




15/18 had 0-5 handicap hurdle runs



H- Run (track)

4+ runs: 0/64, 4 places


4+ runs: 0/47, 3 places

H-Run (Last Win)

15/16 of those with a previous win to name had WON at least once in previous 5

starts

o 1/121, 12 places had not



H-Win (Career)

18/18 had 0-5 career wins

o 6+ : 0/105, 15 places


18/18 had 0-4 hurdle wins

o 5+ : 0/51, 7 places

H-Win (Hncp)

18/18 had 0-2 handicap wins

o 3+ : 0/103, 12 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

18/18 had 0-2 handicap hurdle wins

o 3+ : 0/54, 6 places

H-Win (Grp/Grd/Lst)

1+ win listed/graded level: 0/37, 7 places

H-Win (Season)

18/18 had 0-2 wins this season

o 3+ : 0/57, 8 places

H-Win (Festival) – Just for Cheltenham

1+ : 0/21, 3 places

Miscellaneous 2

Distance Move

Dropping down 1f or more: 2/117, 12 places…11% winners…24% runners…17% places

Highest Class Win

Those who had only won up to, and including C4: 0/66, 8 places




C4,5,6 LTO : 0/67, 7 places



Fairyhouse: 2/10, 3 places

Ffos Las: 2/5, 2 places



One win each: Thurles / Doncaster/Uttox/Leop/Ayr/Leic/Ascot

Navan: 0/13, 2 places

Fontwell: 0/22, 2 places

Wincanton: 0/21, 1 place


Punch: 0/13, 3 places



N Henderson: 2/40, 4 places

P Hobbs: 2/23, 4 places

M Pipe: 2/46, 4 places

1 win each: Miss V Williams/A J Martin/D McCain Jnr / A King / P Nicholls/F

Murphy/T J Taffe/Dr R Newland/E J O Grady / G Elliot / C Roche

D Pipe: 0/16, 2 places

Nick Williams: 0/4, 2 places


W Mullins: 0/15, 2 places

N Meade: 0/11, 2 places

NTD: 0/11, 1 place

***



Aged 5-9

Ran 16-120 Days Ago (places for 121+ days is strong though)

0-7 runs this season

Horse had NEVER RAN over 25f or further

NOT USA of German (GER) Bred

0-3 previous rRuns at Cheltenham Only

0-5 career wins ONLY

0-4 hurdle wins ONLY

0-2 handicap wins ONLY

Horse had WON above Class 4

Ran at Class 3 or higher Last Time Out (LTO)

***

16.50 The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race

New race in 2005: 11 previous renewals


***

TRENDS

Previous Place

11/11 Top 7 LTO

o 7th or worse: 0/22, 3 places

Days Since Run


o 61+ : 0/32, 5 places

o 1-30 days: 9/134, 24 places…82% winners…52% runners..55% places

o 31-60 days: 2/91, 15 places…18% winners…35% runners…34% places

Horse Weight


o 11-5 + : 1/48, 10 places…9% winners…19% runners…23% places



10/11 OR 124-133


o OR 109-123: 1/68, 6 places…9% winners…26% runners…14% places

o OR 134+ : 0/45, 10 places…18% runners…23% places

Season Runs

11/11 1-5 runs this season

o 6+ : 0/29, 2 places

o 1-3: 9/136, 28 places…82% winners…54% runners…64% places

o 4-5: 2/88, 13 places…18% winners…34% runners…30% places

Odds

11/11 priced 40/1 or below

o 50/1 + : 0/55, 2 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 1/53, 8 places


FR: 5/80, 20 places

USA: 0/14, 2 places

GER: 0/8, 2 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

Clear/Joint Top Weight: 0/12, 4 places

Clear Bottom/Joint bottom: 0/19, 1 place


H – Run (career)

15+ career runs: 0/37, 3 places

H- Run (Hncp)

7+ handicap runs: 0/37, 4 places



9/11 had 1-3 hurdle runs

o 9/138, 28 places…82% winners..54% runners…64% places

o 4+5 : 2/86, 13 places…18% winners…33% runners…30% places

o 6+ : 0/29, 2 places

H- Run (track)

11/11 No previous run at track

o 1+ : 0/49, 6 places


H-Win (Career)

0 career wins: 0/40, 7 places

H-Win (Hncp)

11/11 0 or 1 handicap win in career

o 2+ : 0/21, 5 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

10/11 1st or 2nd on at least one of previous 3 starts

o 1st: 9/174, 33 places

o 2nd : 1/49, 6 places

o NOT Top 2: 1/30, 4 places

Best In Five Runs

11/11 1st or 2nd on at least one of previous 5 starts

o NOT Top 2: 0/21, 3 places

Class Move

Dropping 2 classes: 0/15, 2 places (Gr1 to G3 would be a drop of two, for example)

Highest Class Win

Yet to win above C5: 0/35, 5 places



(LR)-last run – NH Race Type/Race Code

All-Weather LTO: 0/12, 1 place

(LR) Hcap/Non

10/11 ran in a non-handicap LTO

o Handicap LTO: 1/38, 8 places


Class 5 or 6: 0/30, 3 places

(LR) No. of Runners

5 or fewer: 0/16, 2 places

First Ever Career Run

On All-Weather: 0/26, 2 places

11/11 Top 6 on first ever start



Leopardstown: 2/21, 4 places


1 win each: Southwell/Fairyhouse/Kempton/Folkestone/Exeter/Taunt/Haydock

Gowran: 0/10, 1 place

Cheltenham: 0/10, 1 place


Huntingdon: 0/11, 2 places



P Nicholls: 2/16, 7 places (only multiple winner)

1 win each: M Quinlan/E Lavelle/A Moore/C Egerton/T D Easterby/G Elliot/N

Henderson/P Nolan/D Pipe

G L Moore: 0/9, 2 places

Jonjo O’Neill: 0/8, 1 place

Miss V Williams: 0/8, 0 places




***


Top 7 LTO

Ran 1-60 days ago


Mark up those with OR 124-133

Not bottom or joint bottom weight (top weights also a negative)

14 or fewer career runs

6 or fewer handicap runs

1-5 hurdle runs

A previous run at the track is a negative

0-1 handicap win

Top 2 on at least one of previous 5 runs

Had won above C5

Raced above class 5 LTO

Top 6 on first ever career start a positive

***


DAY 3


13.30 The JLT Novices’ Chase 2m abt 4f Chase

14.10 The Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle Race) Abt 3m Hurdle

14.50 The Ryanair Steeple Chase 2m abt 5f Chase

15.30 The Ladbrokes World Hurdle Race abt 3m Hurdle

16.10 The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (A Handicap Steeple Chase) 2m abt 5f Chase

16.50 The Trull House Stud Mares Novices’ Hurdle 2m abt 1f Hurdle

17.30 The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (0-145) 3m abt 2f Chase

***

14.10 The Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle Race)

18 previous renewals


TRENDS

Previous Place

9/18 1st LTO


o Fell: 0/4, 0 places

o PU: 0/19, 0 places

Horse Age

18/18 Aged 6-10

o 5 : 0/38, 9 places

o 11+ : 0/25, 2 places

Days Since Run

18/18 Ran 8-90 Days ago


o 91+ : 0/28, 5 places

Season Runs

8+ : 0/27, 4 places


Odds/market

nothing of note, winners at all prices.

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse



FR: 0/69, 12 places

USA: 0/12, 1 place

GER: 0/10, 1 place

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

Bottom/joint bottom weights: 1/79, 8 places…5.5% winners…



0: 0/28, 5 places

H – Run (career)

0-4: 1/47, 7 places


0-4 hurdle runs: 1/64, 8 places…5.5% winners…15% runners…11% places


Between 5-11 handicap hurdle runs: 0/180, 23 places…42% runners…32% places



H-Win (Career)

0: 0/33, 3 places


0: 0/41, 3 places

6+ : 0/27, 3 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

5+ : 0/43, 2 places


Track LTO


Donc: 2/8, 2 places


Warwick: 2/24, 3 places


1 win each: Leop/Exeter/Newbury/Punch/Clonmel/Ayr/Chepstow

Uttox: 0/10, 2 places



Wincanton: 0/24, 2 places




NTD: 2/20, 5 places

1 win each: N Henderson/L Lungo/D Arbuthnot/M Jefferson/J L Hasset/P J

Hobbs/Miss V Williams


P Nicholls: 0/11, 3 places


***


Not PU LTO

Aged 6-10

7 or fewer seasons runs

GB or Irish Bred a big positive

Those with 5-11 handicap hurdle runs to name have poor record

1-5 hurdle wins a positive

4 or fewer handicap wins

***

16.10 The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (A Handicap Steeple Chase)

18 previous renewals


TRENDS

Previous Place

15/18 Top 7 LTO



o Fell: 0/10, 1 place

o 8th or worse (completed): 1/42, 6 places…5.5% winners…11% runners…9% places

Horse Age

Nothing significant. Spread of winners from 5-11

o 12+: 0/12, 2 places

Days Since Run

Nothing overly significant

o 121-365 days: 0/11, 0 places


Horse Weight



o 10-12- 11-3: 2/82, 21 places…11% winners…22% runners…30% places

o 11-4+ : 1/66, 8 places…5.5% winners…18% runners…11% places

o 11-12: 0/14, 3 places


16/18 OR 128-141

o 16/221, 48 places…89% winners…60% runners…69% runners

o OR 127<: 0/36, 4 places

o OR 142-147: 2/68,12 places…11% winners…19% runners…17% places

o OR 148+: 0/42, 6 places

Season Runs

18/18 0-7 runs this season

o 8+: 0/34, 3 places


26.5f or further: 1/50, 7 places…5.5% runners…14% runners…10% places


17/18 had won over no further than 22f. (2m6f)

o 22.5f or further: 1/63, 11 places…5.5% winners…17% runners…16% places

Position In Market

Nothing of note

Odds

12/1 or shorter: 6/107, 34 places…33% winners…29% runners…49% places

14/1 or bigger: 12/260, 36 places…67% winners…71% runners…51% places

***


OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse



FR: 7/109, 24 places

Other: 0/12, 0 places


11-8+ : 0/43, 5 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

Top 4 in weights (inc joint weights): 0/78, 13 places…21% runners…19% places


H -Run (90 days)

1 run only: 0/102, 13 places…28% runners…19% places

o 0 runs: 3/40, 6 places

o 2-4 : 15/214, 48 places…83% winners…66% runners…69% places

o 4+ : 0/11, 3 places


0-1: 0/13, 3 places

17+ chase runs: 1/85, 12 places…5.5% winners…23% runners…17% places


16+ handicap chase runs: 0/37, 3 places

H- Run (track)

5+ track runs: 0/77, 12 places…21% runners…17% places


5+ chase runs at track: 0/50, 8 places…14% runners…11% places


H-Run (Fences)

0 runs: 1/98, 16 places…5.5% winners…27% runners…23% places


16/18 placed on at least one of previous 3 starts



H-Win (Track)

2+: 0/26, 6 places


2+ : 0/18, 3 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

17/18 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd on at least one of previous 3 starts


o Not Top 3: 1/66, 7 places

Class Move

Dropping in class from last run: 0/43, 7 places

Distance Move

11/18 ran at same distance or max up 1f from last run


o Down 3f or more: 1/74, 14 places

o Up 2f or more: 2/68, 11 places

Highest Class Win

Grade 1: 0/28, 3 places

C4 or lower: 0/17, 4 places


8+: 1/89, 12 places…5.5% winners…24% runners…17% places

11+: 0/35, 4 places



(LR)- NH Race Type

Hurdle: 0/27, 5 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

G1: 0/19, 2 places

G2: 0/36, 5 places

Listed: 0/24, 3 places

Track (of interest)

Chelt: 3/57, 11 places

2 each: Uttox/Lingfield/Chep/Sand

1 each: Font/Weth/Leic/Warw/Hayd/Newbury (1/45,6 places)/Winc



Leop: 0/10, 1 place

Donc: 0/16, 4 places




M Venetia Williams: 3/21, 8 places


1 win each: R Lee/P R Rodford/K C Bailey/H D Daly/Mrs S J Smith/G L Moore



NTD: 0/10, 2 places



W Mullins: 0/5, 1 place

***



OR 128-147


11-7 or less on back (excluding jockey claims)

Top 4 in weights (inc joint weights) a negative

1 run only previous 90 days a negative


4 or fewer track runs

Dropping in class a negative

Previous G1 winners have a poor record

11+ places in chases a negative (will include wins)

***

17.30 The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (0-145)

18 renewals

397 runners, 70 places

TRENDS

Last Race Position

Nothing too significant



o UR: 0/12, 0 places

Horse Age

17/18 Aged 7-10

o 17/313, 59 places…94% winners…79% winners…84% places

o 5-6: 0/23, 5 places

o 11+: 1/61, 6 places

Days Since Run

Nothing much of note

o 365+: 0/8, 0 places

Horse Weight

Noting significant



OR 129-133: 0/106, 11 places…27% runners…16% places

Season Runs

9+: 0/19, 3 places

Position In Market

Nothing significant

Odds

18/18 40/1 or under

o 50/1+ : 0/43, 1 place

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 6/86, 17 places


FR: 2/75, 11 places

USA: 1/11, 3 places


10-4 – 10-10: 0/57, 8 places


H – Run (career)

31+: 1/65,12 places…5.5% winners…16% runners…17% places

H- Run (Hncp)

0: 0/10, 4 places

21+: 1/49, 7 places…5.5% winners…12% runners…10% places



0 handicap chase runs: 0/27, 8 places

20+: 0/22, 1 place


No place in last 5 runs: 0/25, 1 place


H-Win (Career)

15/18 had 0-5 career wins

o 15/294 runners,54 places…83% winners…74% runners…77% places


4+ chase wins: 2/95,12 places…11% winners…24% runners…17% places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

17/18 Had 0-2 handicap chase wins

o 3+: 1/83, 7 places…5.5% winners…21% runners…10% places

H-Win (Class)

2+ class wins: 0/26, 3 places

H-Win (Track)

2+ track wins: 0/23, 1 place


2+ track chase wins: 0/15, 0 places


1 Cheltenham Festival Win: 0/18, 2 places


Miscellaneous 2

Best In Five Runs

18/18 finished Top 3 in at least one of previous 5 runs

o Did Not: 0/30, 1 place

Distance Move

Up 2f or more from last run: 1/116, 13 places…5.5% winners…29% runners…19% places


0: 0/17, 0 places

12+: 0/19, 1 place


(LR) Hcap/Non

Non Handicap LTO: 0/65, 12 places…16% runners…17% places


C5/6: 0/15, 3 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

G1: 0/12, 2 places

G2: 1/27, 9 places


(LR) No. of Runners

4 or 5 runners LTO: 0/37, 4 places (none have run with fewer than 4 to date)

Track (of interest)



1 win each:

Muss/Ayr/Sand/Hunt/Chelt/Faken/Donc/Newb/Newc/Warw/Lud/Aint/Leop

Gowran: 0/10, 3 places

Ascot: 0/15, 1 place

Wincanton: 0/12, 1 place

Chepstow: 0/15, 1 place






D McCain Jnr: 2/10, 3 places

1 win each: JJ Quinn/S Gollings/E Williams/NTD/Jonjo O’Neill/J Culloty


P Nicholls: 0/16, 1 place

T George: 0/11, 1 place

Miss V Williams: 0/19, 3 places

***


OR 129-133 a negative

10-4 to 10-10 a negative

Horse finished top 3 on at least one of previous 5 runs


2 or more wins at the class a negative

Ran in a handicap LTO

Running in a race with 5 or fewer runners a negative

***


DAY 4


13.30 The JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m abt 1f Hurdle

14.10 The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle Race 2m abt 1f Hurdle

14.50 The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Race abt 3m Hurdle

15.30 The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m abt 2½ f Chase

16.10 The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 3m abt 2½ f Chase

16.50 The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Race 2m abt 4½ f Hurdle

17.30 The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Steeple Chase 2m abt ½ f Chase

***

14.10 The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle Race

18 renewals

464 runners, 72 places horses

***

TRENDS

Previous Place

12/18 Top 4 LTO



o PU: 1/18, 1 place

Horse Age

18/18 Aged 5-9

o 10+: 0/21, 3 places

o 5 or 6: 13/112, 23 places…72% winners…24% runners…32% places

Days Since Run


o 121+ : 0/34, 2 places

Horse Weight

9-13<: 0/38, 2 places

11-9 +: 0/21, 2 places



OR 127<: 0/58, 8 places


22.5F or further (2m6.5f+): 0/41, 2 place

Odds

16/18 priced 20/1 or shorter

o 22/1+ : 2/257, 26 places…11% winners…55% runners…36% places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse



FR: 4/71, 15 places

USA: 1/19, 1 place

GER: 0/19, 3 places


11-9+ : 0/27, 2 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

4th to 8th in Weights (inc joints): 0/88, 7 places



14/18 1 or 2 run prev 90 days

o 14/270,47 places…78% winners…58% runners…65% places

H – Run (career)

23+ runs: 0/142, 17 places…31% runners…24% places


H- Run (Hncp)

0: 0/38, 6 places

11+ : 2/164, 22 places…11% winners…35% runners…31% places 17+: 0/79, 7 places


20+ hurdle runs: 0/41, 8 places


0 handicap hurdle runs: 0/60, 7 places

1-7 runs: 16/296, 50 places…89% winners…64% runners…69% places

14+: 0/38, 6 places

H- Run (track)

5+ : 0/28, 4 places

H-Run (Last Win)

Won at least once in last 4 starts: 13/283,42 places…72% winners…61% runners…58% places


15/18 placed on at least one of previous 3 starts

o Did Not: 2/80, 14 places…11% winners…17% runners…19% places


H-Win (Career)

8+: 0/43, 2 places


4+ : 2/117, 14 places…11% winners…25% runners…19% places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

17/18 had 0-2 handicap wins

o 3+ : 1/131, 14 places…5.5% winners…28% runners…19% places


H-Win (Hcap NH)

4+ : 0/27, 3 places


1: 0/18, 2 places

Miscellaneous 2

Class Move

Drop 1 or 2 classes: 0/42, 2 places

Up 1: 0/39, 2 places

Up 4+ : 0/34, 2 places

Highest Class Run

C3 or below: 0/24, 2 places





Not a NH race: 0/21, 3 places

Chase: 0/28, 1 place

NHF: 0/4, 0 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

G1: 0/20, 4 places


(LR) No. of Runners

2-6 runners: 0/70, 6 places




Leop: 4/41, 14 places

Sand: 2/53, 7 places


1 win: Ascot/Kelso/Clonmel/Winc

Musselburgh: 0/15, 2 places


Kempt: 0/24, 1 places



W P Mullins: 3/20, 8 places

MC Pipe: 2/37, 4 places



Others 1 win: A Mullins/T Mullins/J A Old/Mrs J Harrington/Jonjo O’Neill/AJ Martin/T Hogan


G L Moore: 0/10, 1 places

Noel Meade: 0/13, 1 places

***


Aged 5-9

Ran 1-120 days ago

Carry 9-13 or less a negative (including jockey claims)

11-9 or more (excluding jockey claim) a negative

OR 128+

Had run over further than 22.5f in career

4th to 8th in weights a negative (inc joint weights)


17+ handicap runs a negative, so is 0 handicap runs

1-7 handicap hurdle runs

7 or fewer career wins

3 or fewer handicap hurdle wins

Running in a chase LTO a negative

Running in a race with 2-6 runners LTO a negative


16.50 The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Race

7 renewals since inception in 2009


TRENDS

Previous Place

6/7 Top 4 LTO


o 1st: 4/40, 10 places…+16.5 SP

o UR: 1/1

o PU: 0/5, 0 places

Horse Age

7/7 Aged 5 or 6

o 7/93 runners…19 places…100% winners…57% runners…68% places

o 4yo: 0/1, 1 place

o 7+ : 0/68, 8 places

Days Since Run

7/7 Ran 16-60 days ago


o 1-15 days: 0/13, 1 place

o 61+ days: 0/44, 6 places

Horse Weight

7/7 carried 11-1 or MORE


o 11-0 or less: 0/69, 10 places

o 11-6+ : 1/30, 5 places


7/7 OR 133+

o 132<: 0/43, 4 places

Season Runs

7+: 0/20, 3 places



6/7 Had won over at least 2m3f previously

o 1/57, 8 places had not…14% winners…35% runners…29% places

Position In Market



Odds

7/7 : 40/1 or shorter

6/7: 20/1 or shorter

50/1 + : 0/33, 1 place

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 1/37, 7 places


FR: 1/41, 9 places

Other: 0/12, 1 place

Headgear

Cheekpieces: 0/19, 1 place




11-12: 0/10, 1 place

11-0 or less: 0/36, 6 places

11-4 or less: 1/93, 14 places…14% winners…57% runners…50% places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

Top 2 (inc joints): 0/19, 3 places




0: 0/21, 1 place

H – Run (career)

18+ : 0/50, 1 place

H- Run (Hncp)

8+ handicap runs: 0/53, 2 places




8+ handicap hurdle runs: 0/25, 2 places

H- Run (track)

7/7: 0 or 1 track run only

o 2+ : 0/34, 1 place

H-Run (Last Win)

6/7 had won at least once in last 3 runs

o Had not: 1/70, 8 places


H-Win (Career)

5+ career wins: 0/50, 2 places


6/7 had 1 to 2 hurdle wins

o 0 or 3+ : 1/77, 8 places

H-Win (Hncp)

3+ handicap wins: 0/31, 2 places


H-Win (Season)

0: 1/61, 7 places

1 or 2: 6/79, 18 places

3+ : 0/22, 3 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

6/88, 19 places had won at least once in previous 3 starts.

1/74, 9 places had not

Class Move

Same class as last run: 0/49, 5 places

Highest Class Run

G2 : 0/32, 8 places

Highest Class Win

G1 and 2: 0/12, 0 places


7 or more places in hurdle races: 0/36, 2 places

Jockey Claims

7/7 had no claim or claimed 3lbs

o 5lb: 0/3, 0 places

o 6lbs: 0/11, 2 places

o 8lbs: 0/16, 4 places


(LR) Hcap/Non

Non Handicap: 5/55, 15 places

Handicap: 2/107, 13 places


C2: 0/49, 5 places


(LR) No. of Runners

11+ runners: 0/73, 10 places


No track has produced more than one winner to date

1 win each: Clonmel/Musselburgh/Market R/Leop/Naven/Hayd/Kempt


Newb: 0/12, 0 places

Sand: 0/10, 1 place

Ascot: 0/12, 1 place




Other 1 win: P Nicholls/M Jefferson/Miss E Lavelle

P Hobbs: 0/12, 1 place

D Pipe: 0/17, 1 place


Miss V Williams: 0/8, 1 place


***


Top 4 LTO has been a big positive (+ 1 UR)

Aged 5 or 6 (don’t discount 4yo, 0/1, 1 place)

Ran 16-60 days ago

11-1 or more (excluding jockey claims)

Top 2 in weights, inc join weights, a negative to date

OR 133+

6 or fewer season runs



7 or fewer handicap hurdle runs

2 or more runs at track a negative

Not moving in class a negative (so running in a C2 LTO)

6 or fewer places in hurdle races


***

17.30 The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Steeple Chase

18 renewals


***

TRENDS

Previous Place

16/18 Top 6 LTO



o PU: 0/9, 3 places

Horse Age

Nothing too Significant. Winners aged 5 to 12.

o 10yo+ : 2/72, 8 places..11% winners…20% runners…11% places

Days Since Run


o 16/273,55 places…89% winners…76% runners…77% places

o 1-7 days: 0/5, 1 place

o 61-90 days: 0/39, 8 places

o 91-120 days: 2/27, 5 places

o 121+ : 0/9, 2 places

Horse Weight

18/18 11-6 or less

o 11-7 or more: 0/37, 6 places


18/18 147 or lower

o 148+ : 0/33, 6 places

Season Runs

18/18 had 7 or fewer seasonal runs

o 8+ : 0/44, 6 places



18/18 had run over a maximum of 2m7.5F in career

o Ran over 3m+: 0/70,9 places

Odds

17/18 20/1 or shorter

o 22/1-40/1: 1/85, 8 places

o 50/1+ : 0/59, 2 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 2/89, 14 places



GER: 1/9, 5 places

USA: 0/15, 3 places


11-7 + : 0/41, 6 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm)

Clear Top Weight: 0/18, 5 places

Clear Second: 0/15, 1 place



4+ : 0/37, 6 places

H – Run (career)


H- Run (Hncp)

24+ : 0/46, 2 places



0-12 chase runs: 17/228, 59 places…94% winners…64% runners…83% places horses

13-20 chase runs: 1/85, 8 places

21+ chase runs: 0/45, 4 places


0-8 handicap chase runs: 17/250, 59 places…94% winners…70% runners…83% places 9-16 handicap chase runs: 1/74, 9 places

17+ handicap chase runs: 0/34, 3 places


6+ chase runs at Cheltenham: 0/30, 2 places


H-Win (Career)

0-1: 1/30, 7 places

9+ : 0/43, 3 places


6+ : 0/36, 5 places

H-Win (Hncp)

6+ : 0/26, 3 places

H-Win (Track)

2+ : 0/27, 5 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

18/18 finished Top 4 on at least one of last 3 starts

o 0/22, 4 places did not

Distance Move

Down 4f or more: 0/35, 8 places


Highest Class Run


C3 or lower: 0/18, 4 places

Highest Class Win

G3: 0/27, 3 places







Gowran: 2/4, 2 places

1 win each: Fairy/Haydock/Kelso/Leic/Punch/Here/Warw

Muss: 0/9, 0 places


Hunt: 0/11, 0 places


Naas: 0/12, 2 places




ALT Moore: 2/8, 3 places



1 win each, many: NTD/C Tizzard/H Daly/M Scudamore/Mrs John Harrington/A

King/J G Fitzgerald/A J Martin/T Mullins/M F Morris/M Venetia Williams



***



11-6 or less (exc jockey claims)

Clear Top Weight and Clear Second have a negative record to date

OR 147 or lower

7 or fewer runs this season

Yet to run over 24f or further in career

0-3 runs in last 90 days



5 or fewer chase runs at track

8 or fewer career wins

5 or fewer handicap wins

Top 4 on at least one of last three starts

***


BONUS RACES

Below I have applied my stats/trends profile checklist to the following four races:-

National Hunt Steeple Chase (Day 1)

RSA Chase (Day 2)

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (DAY 4)

The Gold Cup (Day 4)

***

DAY 1

16.50 The National Hunt Steeple Chase


362 horses, 54 places

TRENDS

Previous Place

12/18 Top 2 LTO



o Unseated Rider (UR): 0/8, 0 places


Horse Age

13/18 Aged 7 or 8


o 5/6: 1/51, 9 places…6% winners…14% runners…16% places

o 9+ : 4/76, 10 places…22% winners…21% runnners…19% places

o (generally not much to go on given the stats above, age of horse shouldn’t really be the deciding factor)

Days Since Run



Horse Weight

Nothing significant



5 winners had No Official Rating

OR 114 or below: 0/70, 2 places

OR 146+ : 4/13, 7 places

Season Runs

0 or 1: 0/21, 1 place

10+ : 0/15, 2 places


3m4f or further: 0/13, 2 places

Position In Market


15th or worse: 0/98, 4 places

Odds


o 50/1+ : 0/87, 2 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 5/64, 10 places


FR: 2/35, 5 places

USA: 1/4,2 places

GER: 1/1, 1 place



H – Run (career)

0-2: 0/25, 3 places


0-2 Chase runs: 1/70, 10 places…6% winners…19% runners…19% places


Nothing of note.

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Five Runs

18/18 finished 1st or 2nd on at least once of previous 5 starts

0/29, 2 places did NOT

Distance Move

18/18 were moving up in trip by 6f or more

o Only moving up 5.5f or less: 0/48, 7 places

Highest Class Run

Yet to run above Class 4: 0/39, 6 places



Class 5 or 6: 0/32, 3 places

(LR) No. of Runners

14+ : 0/64, 7 places


(LR) Track




Warw: 2/18, 5 places

1 win each: Gowran/Ludl/Navan/Newby/Chep/Catt/Muss/Weth/Uttox


Naas: 0/10, 2 places


Plumpton: 0/10, 1 place

Leic: 0/11, 0 places

Thurles: 0/10, 2 places

Hayd: 0/13, 2 places

Font: 0/14, 3 places




Gordon Elliot: 2/3, 2 places


Others 1 win: I Duncan/M Hourigan/Rebecca Curtis/H Daly/NTD




***


Not PU LTO

Ran at least 16 days ago

OR 115 or above (of those with a rating)


Top 14 in market / 40/1 or shorter

3+ career runs

1st or 2nd on at least one of last 5 starts

Moving up in trip by 6f or more

Had run above C4 before, raced above C5 LTO

***


DAY 2

14.10 The RSA Steeple Chase



***

TRENDS

Previous Place

18/18 Top 3 LTO

o 0/45, 4 places Did Not


Horse Age

18/18 Aged 5-8

o 9+ : 0/23, 1 place

o 7yo: 13/105, 29 places…72% winners…49% runners…54% places

Days Since Run

Nothing much of note


o 91+ days: 0/7, 1 place

Horse Weight

Nothing significant


Nothing significant

Season Runs

7+ seasons runs: 0/22, 3 places

Position In Market

Nothing significant


Odds

50/1 + : 0/32, 2 places

Winners at all other odds

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 0/26, 5 places


FR: 2/44, 11 places

Headgear





0: 0/7, 1 place

4+ : 0/16, 4 places


6+ : 0/23, 4 places

H- Run (track)

4+ : 0/26, 4 places


2+ : 0/20, 2 places


18/18 placed on at least one of previous two races





1 win: 4/13, 7 places

Miscellaneous 2

Distance Move

Up 4f or more: 0/45, 11 places


5+ : 0/19, 2 places


(LR) Track



1 win each: Kempt/Hayd/Winc/Font/Sand/Newby/Punch/Hunt/Exet

Chelt: 0/15, 1 place


WP Mullins: 4/18, 7 places



1 win each: R Curtis/P Hobbs/Jonjo O’Neill/Noel Chance/JH Culloty/C Byrnes/Mrs H

Harrington

***


Top 3 LTO

Aged 5-8

6 or fewer runs this season

5 or fewer non handicap chase runs

Placed on at least one of previous 2 runs

Not up in trip by 4f or more

***


Day 4

14.50 The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Race

New race in 2005

11 renewals


***

TRENDS

Previous Place

11/11 Top 4 LTO

o 0/33, 2 places finished 5th or worse



Horse Age

11/11 Aged 5-7

o 8+ : 0/21, 4 places

Days Since Run

Not much of note.

o 1-15 days: 0/14, 1 place

Horse Weight

Not significant


Of the 10 win an official rating: 10/10 OR 135 or higher

o OR 134 or under: 0/62, 1 place

Season Runs

10/11 had 2-5 runs this season



11/11 had run over NO further than 24f

o 0/61, 5 places had run over 24.5f or further in career previously


Position In Market


o 10th or below: 1/97, 6 places…9% winners…49% runners…18% places

Odds


o 50/1+ : 0/67, 2 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 0/35, 2 places


FR: 3/26, 5 places



10/11 had 0-2 runs in previous 90 days


H – Run (career)

10/11 had 4-8 career runs


o 1-3 career runs: 0/20, 2 places



8/11 had 3-4 hurdle runs


o 1-2: 0/33, 2 places



1-2 non handicap hurdle runs: 0/37, 3 places



H-Win (Career)

0: 1/6, 1 place

1 only: 0/29, 2 places

H-Win (Track)



1+ : 5/20, 8 places

Miscellaneous 2

Class Move

11/11 running at same class or moving up 1 only (so ran in a G1 or G2 LTO)


o Moving up 2 or more: 0/118, 8 places

Distance Move

11/11 ran at same distance or up by no more than 4f from last run

o Down in distance: 0/33, 2 places

o Up 4.5+ : 0/34, 2 places

Highest Class Run

11/11 had run in a G2 or G1 previously


Horse Place on Racecourse Debut

9/11 finished 1st or 2nd on first ever start under rules

o 3rd or worse: 2/82, 14 places (includes one who ran of course)



(LR) Hcap/Non

Ran in a handicap LTO: 0/28, 3 places


11/11 ran in a class 1 LTO


(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

Non Major (outside of Listed/Graded company) : 0/98, 6 places

G1: 0/10, 1 place

G2: 11/68, 22 places

G3: 0/14, 3 places

Listed: 0/9, 1 place

(LR) No. of Runners

12+ : 0/57, 5 places

(LR) Track




1 win each: Naas/Warw/Navan

Donc: 0/18, 1 place




1 win each: Miss R Curtis/A King/C Byrnes/N Henderson/Ms Margaret Mullins/F

Doumen/N Meade/Paul John Gilligan/Miss Lucinda V Russell

NTD: 0/10, 1 place


***



Top 4 LTO

Aged 5-7

OR 135 or higher (of those with a rating)

Yet to run beyond 24f in career

GB Bred a negative

3 or more hurdle runs

Just 1 or 2 non handicap hurdle runs a negative

Same distance as LTO or up no more than 4f from last run

Running at same class or moving up 1 only

Ran in G2 LTO

***

15.30 The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase



One winner down as having had no previous run, likely no UK/Irish form

***

TRENDS

Previous Place

Nothing too significant

o 1st LTO: 11/84, 27 places

o 7th or worse (completed): 0/15, 0 places


o PU: 1/11, 1 place

Horse Age

18/18 aged 6-10

o 10 : 1/46, 6 places

o 11+ : 0/32, 4 places

Days Since Run

17/17 (of those with UK/Irish form) ran 31 or more days ago

o 1-30 days: 0/66, 12 places

o 121-365: 0/4, 0 places


Horse Weight

No significant


Of the 14 with an official rating: 13/14 OR 166+

o 165 or under: 1/138, 15 places

Season Runs

6+ : 0/20, 4 places


27f + : 1/85, 10 places…6% winners…33% runners…19% places

Position In Market



Odds

50/1+ : 0/56, 3 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 1/43, 6 places


FR: 3/63, 13 places


H – Run (career)

21+ : 0/80, 10 places

H- Run (Non Hncp)

19+ non handicap runs: 0/44, 6 places



13+ Chase Runs: 1/89, 12 places…6% winners…35% runners…22% places

H-Run (Last Win)

17/17 had won at least once in previous 4 starts



H-Win (Grp/Grd/Lst)

0 wins G1 level: 2/144, 15 places…11% winners…56% runners…28% places

o (wins in 1997/1998) 0/30, 2 places last 5 festivals

Miscellaneous 2

Best In Three Runs

15/17 had won at least once in previous 3 runs


Best In Five Runs

17/17 had won at least once in previous 5 runs


Highest Class Win

16/17 Had won at G1 level

o G2: 0/73, 8 places

o G3: 0/19, 2 places

o Listed: 0/12, 0 places

o C2/3: 1/23, 3 places (win in 1998) Only 1 such runner last 5 festivals



Hurdle: 0/9, 0 places


17/17 ran in C1 LTO



(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst


(LR) Track


Newby: 4/42, 11 places



Sand: 1/8, 1 place


Winc: 0/16, 3 places



P Nicholls: 4/37, 11 plsces

N Chance: 2/3, 2 places


1 win each: Jonjo O’Neill/T J Taffe/NTD/ Bradstock/M Morris/J H Culloty


***


Aged 6-10

Ran 31+ days ago

Top 10 in market


Had won at least once in previous 4 starts

Ran in C1 LTO

***


CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: TOP LEVEL LOOK AT THE HANDICAPS

General Handicap Stats (2011-)

***

HANDICAP CHASES

(excluding the Novice Handicap Chase)

526 bets / 25 wins (5 each Festival) / 99 places

***

TRENDS

Horse Age

5+6 : 0/33, 8 places

11+ :1/79, 13 places

Days Since Run

1-15 days: 1/39, 3 places


OR 151+ : 0/34, 2 places

Season Runs

8+ : 0/37, 6 places

Odds

66/1+ : 0/38, 0 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

GB: 5/93, 17 places


USA: 0/16, 3 places




10-12 – 11-0: 0/59, 12 places


H – Run (career)


H- Run (Hncp)

24 or more handicap runs: 0/50, 5 places


21 or more chase runs: 0/72, 11 places


17 or more handicap chase runs: 0/50, 8 places

H- Run (track)

0: 3/109, 18 places…12% winners…21% runners…18% places

H-Run (Last Win)

No wins in last 10 runs: 0/46, 13 places



0: 0/20, 6 places

H-Win (Hncp)

6+ : 0/37, 4 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

6+ : 0/17, 2 places

H-Win (Season)

3+ : 0/34, 5 places


Miscellaneous 2

Distance Move

Dropping 1 furlong or more from last run: 0/91, 15 places

Highest Class Win

G1: 1/28, 4 places

G2: 1/66, 14 places

G3: 0/60, 6 places

Jockey Claims

3lbs: 2/48, 10 places




Total: 4/129, 17 places…16% winners…25% runners…17% places


(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst


(LR) Track



Punchestown: 2/24, 7 places


1 win: Leop (1/22,7p) / Kempt (1/33,2p) / Kelso / Galway /Navan/Sandown (1/38,7

p) /Donc (1/30,7p) / Aint / Fairy / Winc / Warw (1/22,4 p)







C Tizzard: 2/17, 4 places

A J Martin: 2/10, 4 places

1 win of note

o Miss V Williams: 1/26, 2 places

o Henry De Bromhead: 1/6, 3 places

o N Henderson: 1/38, 7 places

o NTD: 1/16, 2 places

o A King: 1/18, 2 places


E Bolger: 0/11, 1 place



***

HANDICAP HURDLES

(excluding the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle)

495 runners, 20 wins (4 each Festival), 80 placed horses

TRENDS

Previous Place

5th or worse LTO: 4/209 runners, 29 places…20% winners…42% runners…36% places

Horse Age

Aged 7 or older: 5/255, 32 places…25% winners…52% runners…40% places

Days Since Run

76 or more days: 0/87, 13 places

Horse Weight




OR 133 or below: 0/52, 2 places

Season Runs

9+ : 0/13, 0 places

Wins (Distance)

2 or more wins at distance: 0/31, 1 place

Position In Market

13th or worse: 1/231, 21 places

o 13th-15th: 1/76, 14 places


Odds

28/1+ : 1/203, 15 places

o 40/1 or bigger: 0/111, 2 places

o 28/1-33/1: 1/92, 13 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

USA: 0/11, 1 place

GER: 0/15, 3 places

Headgear



Hood: 0/21, 3 places






H – Run (career)

40+ : 0/22, 0 places

H- Run (Hncp)

8+ : 2/101, 9 places…10% winners…20% winners…11% places


14+ hurdle runs: 2/109, 8 places…10% winners…22% winners…10% places


8+ handicap hurdle runs: 2/101, 9 places…10% winners…22% winners…11% places

H- Run (track)

5+ track runs: 1/48, 4 places


H-Win (Career)

9+ : 0/24, 1 place


6+ : 0/18, 2 places

H-Win (Hncp)

3+ : 0/106, 8 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

3+ handicap hurdle wins: 0/54, 5 places

H-Win (Class)

1+ : 1/79, 9 places…5% winners..16% runners…11% places


Miscellaneous 2

Class Move

(There are only 12 winners within this stats pool. I am not 100% sure where the other 8 are.

They may have form abroad LTO whereby any class move is not picked up…)

Drop of 1-4 classes: 0/95, 4 places.

o (grade 3 to a listed race is a drop of 1 class for example)

o Classes… (G1,G2,G3,Lst,C1,C2,C3,C4,C5,C6,C7)

Up 3 or more classes: 0/49, 2 places

12/12 ran at same class, up 1 or up 2 from LTO

o 12/253, 44 places

SAME: 1/85, 15 places

Up 1: 7/98, 18 places

Up 2: 4/70, 11 places

Highest Class Run


Class 3: 0/13, 0 places

Jockey Claims

Claiming 6lbs or more: 0/48, 7 places



Not NH race LTO: 0/14, 3 places

Chase: 0/44, 4 places

NH Flat: 0/11, 1 place

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

G1: 0/21, 5 places


(LR) No. of Runners

2: 1/2, 1 place

3-5: 0/46, 6 places


(LR) Track

Leopardstown: 4/44, 15 places


Ffos Las: 2/8, 3 places

Sand: 1/26, 1 place



Others 1 win each: Clonmel/Exet/Navan/Donc/Market R/Muss/Warw/Fairyhouse



Taunt: 0/13, 0 places

Punchestown: 0/15, 2 places




M Jefferson: 2/2, 2 places



Thomas Mullins: 1/2, 1 place

Gordon Elliot: 1/18, 7 places

A J Martin: 1/9, 2 places

D McCain: 1/16, 2 places



P J Hobbs: 1/28, 3 places

C Longsdon: 0/11, 0 places

NTD: 0/11, 2 places

Miss Venetia Williams: 0/16, 2 places

J Ferguson: 0/8. 0 places

***


TRAINER MICRO ANGLE/PROFILES: HANDICAPS

HANDICAP MICRO ANGLE

Handicaps

Horse Runs In Career: 1-3*

Horse Wins In Career: 1 Only

Trainers: N Henderson/Miss E Lavelle/WP Mullins/P Nicholls/D Pipe

*Important: For all of this research I use Horse Race Base. Horse Race Base does NOT take

account of form from abroad, outside of the UK and Ireland. As such, if using this micro

angle, ignore all form from abroad, from France for example. Paul Nicholl’s winners in

particular may have a few French runs under their belts but based on their UK/Irish form

here would qualify.

I researched this angle before last season’s festival and it pointed to Qualando at 25/1. Every qualifier last year finished in the Top 6.

RESULTS

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E

ALL 28 8 28.57 98 14 50 21 38.1 122.09 436.04 38.54 2.89

2015 5 1 20 21 3 60 3 33.33 24.11 482.21 9.07 2.7

2014 5 1 20 8 2 40 3 33.33 9.01 180.11 7.26 2.38

2013 3 0 0 -3 1 33.33 2 0 -3 -100 3.08 0

2012 4 2 50 42.5 2 50 4 50 54.34 1358.38 8 4.26

2011 1 1 100 4.5 1 100 1 100 5.42 542.45 1.95 5.56

2010 5 2 40 15 4 80 4 50 19.59 391.82 10.33 3.28

2009 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -100 -1 0

2008 4 1 25 11 1 25 3 33.33 13.63 340.63 -0.15 4.35


This angle could be further improved by looking at how well the trainers do in hurdles vs

chases with these runners…

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E

NH Race

Type

= Hurdle

Trainer

= Nicholls, P

F

6 2 33.33 25 4 66.67 28.65 17.05 3.7

NH Race

Type

= Hurdle

Trainer

= Pipe, D E

5 0 0 -5 1 20 -5 -2.39 0

NH Race

Type

= Hurdle

Trainer

= Mullins, W

P

4 1 25 1.5 2 50 2.42 3.56 2.44

NH Race

Type = Chase

Trainer

= Pipe, D E

4 2 50 14.5 3 75 15.74 5.4 3.17

NH Race

Type

= Hurdle

Trainer

= Henderson,

N J

3 2 66.67 53 3 100 68.65 17.07 12.5

NH Race

Type

= Hurdle

Trainer

= Lavelle,

Miss E C

2 1 50 13 1 50 15.63 1.85 6.25

NH Race

Type = Chase

Trainer

= Nicholls, P

F

2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0

NH Race

Type = Chase

Trainer

= Henderson,

N J

2 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0


HANDICAP CHASE TRAINER PROFILES (2011-)

(excluding the Novice Handicap Chase)

David Pipe

20/1 or shorter

Horse Runs 90 days: 0 or 1 run only

18 bets / 4 wins / 10 places / 22% winSR / +14.8 SP / +19.47 BFSP

With all his handicap chasers sent off over 20/1 he is 0/15, 0 places. If they are a big big

price it is usually a negative. That will change one year no doubt. Within the set of those

that are 20/1 or shorter he is 0/7, 0 places with those that have had 2 or more runs in the

previous 90 days. It would appear that this is a deliberate strategy for his festival handicap

chasers. We should not be put off by those that have had a break, or not much racing in

recent weeks. All winners have been 12/1 or shorter but he has had 4 horses priced 16/1 or

20/1 hit the places.

Jonjo O’Neill

14/1 or shorter

10 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 30% winSR / +23.5 SP / +30.89 BFSP

No need to over complicate t this one really. Those with a 16/1 + SP are 0/13, 1 place. Small

samples of course but a useful guide. Covers all his handicap chase winners at last 5

festivals.

Colin Tizzard

Aged 6-9

10 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 20% winSR / +60 SP / +76 BFSP

Tizzard is 0/7, 2 places with those aged 10 or older, and we know that older horses generally

struggle here. Those two winners were in 2011 and 2013. He is 0/7, 1 place the last two

Festivals. But, given the season he is having, maybe he is about to send another big priced

handicap chaser to the winner’s enclosure.


AJ (TONY) Martin

All handicap chasers

10 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 20% winSR / +24 SP / +33 BFSP

Really not much more is needed. He clearly targets the festival well with his handicap

chasers and every single one is worth a second glance. Those that ran at Leopardstown last

time out are 0/4, 0 places. Both wins came with unexposed horses. Those with 3 or more

handicap chase wins are 0/4, 0 places.

***

HANDICAP HURDLE TRAINER PROFILES (2011-)

(excluding the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle)

Willie Mullins

5+6 year olds

25 bets / 5 wins / 12 places / 20% wSR / +38.5 SP / +44.66 BFSP

It is best not to overcomplicate this angle too much either. He is currently 0/7, 2 places with

those aged 7 or older. There are not many other ways to ensure all of his winners are

covered. Those that were 1st last time out should be marked up: 3/5, 5 places. Those

moving up by 3 or 4 classes from last run are 0/5, 1 place.

Paul Nicholls

4-6 year olds

0 or 1 win in handicaps only

16/1 or shorter

9 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / 33% wSR / +30 SP / + 36.17 BFSP

This angle would have found one winner at each of the last three festivals. Remember this

will be based on UK form, not form from abroad, which can be ignored. Those aged 7 or

older are 0/7, 0 places, 2+ handicap hurdle wins are 0/4, 0 places. Those with an SP over

16/1 are currently 0/9, 4 places. Of course the numbers are small with micro angles such as

this but a useful guide nonetheless.


Nicky Henderson

Horse aged 6 only

1st or 2nd LTO

7 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 28% wSR / +18 SP / +18.73 BFSP

Henderson is 2/43 with all his handicap hurdles at the last 5 festivals so this angle helps

narrow it down somewhat. With 5 year olds he is 0/10, 1 place. With those aged 7+ he is

0/15, 1 place. 3rd or worse last time out (within the 6 year olds) are 0/8, 0 places. This angle

in the last 2 festivals reads… 1,5,5,8,1 – given bookmaker concessions you would have been

paid on some nice EW bets on those 5th places I suspect, many at decent odds.

***

***

That’s all for this year’s guide. It is my first attempt at pulling together something like this for a

festival. I hope you enjoy it and hopefully it helps us all with our shortlisting. Hopefully our pins

can land on the right ones from those shortlists and we have a profitable and enjoyable four days.

This approach has worked very well in ‘Big Races’ so far this jumps season and I see no reason why

it won’t continue to do so – albeit this is the most competitive racing all year!

Hopefully the trainers highlighted can also chip in with the odd big priced winner!

If you have any questions, you know where I am. I will try and get back to you ASAP.

All the best

Josh

www.racingtoprofit.co.uk

Email: [email protected]

***

http://www.racingtoprofit.co.uk/

mailto:[email protected]

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