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205220522052 -A Global Forecast
2052 -A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty Yearsfor the Next Forty YearsJ R dJorgen Randers
ProfessorCenter for Climate Strategygy
Norwegian Business School BI
Pioneers of Energy Transition ConferenceNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 1J Randers 1
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
Pioneers of Energy Transition - Conference Vienna, Austria
October 10th, 2012
12 scenarios for the 21st century
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Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis
3: Industrial output
1 12 35
5: Nonrenewable resources
2: Food
4
5
2: Foodoutput
1
1
2
22
34
5
1: Population
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
23 3
44 4
5
Year
4: Pollution level
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Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability55
55: Nonrenewable resources
1 233
3: Industrial output
1
1
25
52: Food
4
52: Foodoutput
1
1 2 341: Population
4: Pollution level
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year0
23
44
4
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Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
900 950 000 050 00ea
Limits to Growth: A small and fragile world
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Source: KPMG, 2010
Overshoot: Emissions is twice absorption
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Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009
For all numerical dataand the forecast model,
consultconsultthe book websitewww.2052.info
The five regions used in the 2052 forecast
Region Population GDP GDP per person2010
(billion
2010
(trillion
2010
(1000people) $ pr year) $ pr person-year)
US 0,3 13 41China 1 3 10 7China 1,3 10 7OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ( )ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10
(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
World population will peak in 2040% / yrGpersons
5,010
Population( l )
% / yrGpersons
4,08 (←scale)
3,06
2,04 Birth rate(scale →)
1,02Death rate
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1
Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050
0,001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
10,000$ / person-yrG$ / yr Gp
World GDP growth will slow down6,0150 6.0
4,8120
W ld GDP
Populationaged 15 to 65(scale → →)
4.8
3,690 World GDP(←scale)
( )3.6
2,460
Gross laborproductivity
2.4
1,230 productivity(scale →)
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a
1.2
0,001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
g p
0.0
Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
p g y p p y
Share of GDP in investment will growG$ / yr%
15040
World GDP( l )
G$ / yr%
12032 (scale →)
Investmentshare in GDP
9024 (←scale)
Consumption6016
Consumption(scale →)
308
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4
Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050
001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Energy use will peak in 2040G$
30020
World
toe / M$Gtoe / yrG$/ yr
300
24016energy use(←scale)
Energy intensity= Energy use
240
18012= Energy useper unit of GDP(scale →)
180
1208
World GDP(scale →→)
120
604(scale )
60
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Fossil fuels will prevailGtoe / yr6,5
y
5,2 Coal use
3,9 Oil use
2,6
Gas use
1,3
N l
Renewable energy use
Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052
0,01970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear useg120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8
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Figure 5 2: Energy Uses World 1970 to 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030tCO2 / toeGtCO2 / yr Gtoe/yr
550
CO2 emissions
tCO2 / toeGtCO2 / yr Gtoe/yr25
440 (←scale)Climate intensity= CO2 per unitof energy( l )
20
330 (scale →) 15
220
Energy use(scale →→)
10
110(scale →→)
5
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9
Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0g p
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Figure 5 3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 1970 to 2050.
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Temperature and sea-level will risedeg Cppm m
2,5500deg Cppm m
1.5
2,0400 CO2 in atmosphere(←scale) Temperature rise
(scale →)
1.2
1,5300(scale )
0.9
1,0200Sea level rise(scale →→)
0.6
0,5100 0.3
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
0,001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0g p
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g g
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Average disposable income – 1970 to 2050
40.000
(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
WORLD
30.000
35.000 BRISE
China
25.000
China
OECDless US
15.000
20.000 USA
RoW Residual
5.000
10.000
Residual
01970 1990 2010 2030 2050
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Democratic decision making takes time
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COP 15 meeting in December 2009
What should be done? – Globally1 Sl l ti th H f1. Slow population growth: Have fewer
children, particularly in the rich world
2. Reduce the footprint: Eliminate fossil fuels first in the rich worldfuels, first in the rich world
3. Help the poor: Build a climate-friendly3. Help the poor: Build a climate friendly energy system in the poor world
4. Temper short-termism: Establish supra-national institutions
5. Establish new goals: Increase societal wellbeing in a world without growthNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
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wellbeing in a world without growth
What should be done? – Pioneer regions
1. Be in favour of small families and optimal degree of centralisation
2. Increase energy efficiency (GDP/energy) and fraction renewable energy (GDP/CO2)
3. Focus on climate-friendly transport, housing and air travel – individually or collectively
4. Remember this is primarily a political challenge: To make voters support wise policy even if expensive in the short termNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
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