real gdp growth yoy real fed funds rate & long-term ... · 10/22/2019 · us/china trade...

See page 13 for disclosures and analyst certification

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-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

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1,5

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2,5

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-1,5

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Mar

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Fed Long-term Real Neutral rate Real Fed Funds Rate%%

Real Fed Funds Rate & Long-term Neutral Rate

Source: NBG Research, Fed, Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members Long Run Real Neutral Rate = Fed Long Term Estimates – 2% Inflation TargetReal Fed Funds Rate = Fed Rate – Core PCE YoY

Tight monetary policy

Easy monetary policy

Easy monetary policy

-4

-3

-2

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

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7

8

9

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

World Advanced Economies Emerging Economies%%

Real GDP Growth YoY – IMF Estimates

Source: NBG Research, IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2019

Estimates

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N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

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Global Markets Roundup

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | October 22, 2019

The recovery of 2020 global real GDP growth remains uncertain and will be conditioned on trade

developments and central bank support

Ilias TsirigotakisAC

Head of Global

Markets Research

210-3341517

[email protected]

Panagiotis Bakalis

210-3341545

[email protected]

Vasiliki Karagianni

210-3341548

[email protected]

Table of Contents

Overview_p1

Economics & Markets_p2,3 Outlook_p4,5

Forecasts_p6 Event Calendar_p7

Markets Monitor_p8

ChartRoom_p9,10

Market Valuation_p11,12

The IMF downgraded its projection for annual real GDP growth, for a 5th consecutive quarter, by 0.2

pps to 3% for 2019 and by 0.1 pp to 3.4% for 2020 compared with July, versus 3.6% in 2018 and a

peak of 3.8% in 2017 post GFC (see graph below). The revisions were mainly due to the further

broadening of tariffs during recent months.

The deceleration between 2017 and 2019 can be mainly attributed to a slowdown in a number of

Emerging Market and Developing (EMD) economies (e.g. India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey),

mostly due to idiosyncratic factors. Anticipated recoveries (or weaker recessions) in these countries

account for more than 70% of the expected pick-up in global GDP growth in 2020 (i.e. 0.3 pps).

Thus, unlike the synchronized slowdown in 2017/2019, the expected global economic recovery in

2020 is far from certain: Note that 2020 real GDP growth in the US and China is expected to be

lower compared with 2019.

Other factors accounting for the deceleration in GDP growth since 2017 were higher tariffs, new

trade barriers, uncertainty surrounding future international trade relations and geopolitics (including

Brexit related risks) as well as slowing domestic demand in China account. According to the IMF,

US/China trade tensions are due to subtract cumulatively 0.8% from global GDP levels by 2020

compared with a hypothetical no-tariff scenario, an impact partly offset by further monetary policy

accommodation. In the event, the IMF cited that in the absence of monetary policy support, global

GDP growth would be down by 0.5% both in 2019 and 2020.

Uncertainty in the Automotive industry has also contributed to the deceleration in global growth

deceleration (e.g. car production subtracted -0.04 pps from global real GDP growth in 2018, versus

+0.02 pps in 2017). Apart from pressures stemming from the international trade tensions, supply

disruptions from new emissions standards in the euro area and China (leading to supply bottlenecks

at testing agencies), lower Chinese demand for automobiles due to the expiration in respective tax

incentives and stricter regulations on peer-to-peer lending have weighed on the sector. Demand

side challenges are also evident (shifting consumer preferences towards decarbonization, evolving

car transportation and sharing options).

Looking forward, non-implementation of the pending tariffs and/or a rollout of those already in

effect would brighten the outlook. Overall, however, the IMF sees the net balance of risks as tilted to

the downside.

On the other hand, downside risks, inter alia, include: i) no dissipation of tensions in key emerging

and developing economies; ii) an escalation in trade tensions, combined with a broadening of them

to other fronts such as technology, possible barriers in international portfolio investment flows; iii)

geopolitical risks; iv) the weakness in global manufacturing spreading to the services sector; and v) a

no-deal Brexit. Regarding Brexit, the saga continues, and while the chances of a no-deal Brexit

appear less likely following the agreement between the UK and the EU on October 17th, PM Johnson

faces an uphill battle in Parliament (see Economics).

mailto:[email protected]


O F G R E E C E

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

2

US retail sales data disappointed in September

US nominal retail sales ended Q3:19 on a weak note, with the

monthly outcome below expectations for the first time in five

months. Specifically, in value terms, the so-called “control group”,

as it feeds into the calculation for GDP (i.e. excluding autos, gas,

food services and building materials) was 0% (flat) on a monthly

basis, compared with +0.3% mom in August and consensus

estimates also for +0.3% mom. As a result, annual growth

decelerated to (a still robust) +4.8% yoy versus +5.2% yoy in

August -- the strongest performance since May 2018. Overall,

private consumption appears set for an increase of 2.6% - 2.7%

qoq saar in Q3:19, a still healthy outcome, albeit considerably

lower compared with the 6-quarter high of 4.6% qoq saar in Q2:19.

US manufacturing output was below expectations in

September

US industrial production was subdued in September, with the

annual pace of growth at -0.4% yoy. More importantly, the less

volatile manufacturing production (75% of total) declined by 0.5%

mom, below consensus estimates for -0.3% mom and compared

with +0.6% mom in August. It should be noted that the latest

outcome could, in part, be negatively distorted by the continuing

strike by the United Auto Workers union (which began in mid-

September -- output of motor vehicles and parts declined by 4.2%

mom in September). Nevertheless, manufacturing production

excluding motor vehicles and parts was also subdued (-0.2% mom)

in line with weak ISM-manufacturing data. Overall, the annual pace

of growth for manufacturing production stood at -0.9% yoy, the

weakest outcome since August 2016 and well below a peak of

+3.5% yoy a year ago.

UK: Agreement on Brexit was reached between the

Government and the EU, albeit the approval by the UK

legislature is pending

The EU and the UK reached a Brexit deal on October 17th.

Regarding the controversial backstop, Northern Ireland will now be

in a hybrid customs system, with no checks at the land border with

the Republic of Ireland. Different treatment (regarding excise

duties, VAT collection) for trading goods entering Northern Ireland

will depend on their final destination (EU, rest of the UK or

elsewhere). Notably, consent (by a simple majority) from the

Northern Ireland Assembly will be required at a later date. The

withdrawal agreement was subsequently put to the House of

Commons on Saturday, but MPs voted (322 in favor versus 306

against) to withhold support for the new deal until it had been

enacted into law. As a result, in order to comply with the Benn Act,

PM Johnson sent a letter to the EU requesting an extension of the

Brexit date to January 31st. The EU will now consider the request.

Note that all 27 EU states must agree to an extension. Overall,

while the latest developments suggest a reduced probability of a

no-deal Brexit, such an event can still not be completely ruled out.

UK labor market shows signs of fatigue

The unemployment rate in the UK remains at a relatively low

level, albeit the number of employed persons decreased in

August for the first time in circa two years. Specifically, the

unemployment rate was 3.9% in August, up slightly by 0.1 pp

compared with the multi-year low (since January 1975) of 3.8% in

the previous month. Importantly, the increase was due to

moderately reduced demand for labor rather than higher labor

supply. On the contrary, the labor force participation rate declined

by 0.1 pp to 63.8%. Indeed, employment decreased by 56k, versus

+31k in July and average monthly gains of +81k in 2019. Although

a deceleration in employment growth is not surprising in view of

labor supply shortages, which are common in tight labor markets

(as remains the case in the UK), the latest slowdown appears

closely related to the persistence of uncertainty surrounding the

economic environment. In the event, the UK Office for National

Statistics cited various external surveys that support that argument,

with the KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs (respondents include c.

400 recruitment and employment consultancies) indicating that

total demand for staff (as implied by the number of job vacancies)

rose at the weakest pace since January 2012 in September, while

permanent hirings declined for a 7th consecutive month, as firms

await clarity regarding the Brexit. Meanwhile, the still tight labor

market conditions continue to feed through to strong wage

growth. Indeed, the annual growth of wages stood at +3.8% in

August, just 0.1 pp below the respective figure in July, which was

the highest since June 2008. Recall that the respective pace for CPI

growth was 1.7% yoy in July, suggesting continuing support for

private consumption from increased households’ purchasing

power.

Chinese GDP growth was slightly below expectations in

Q3

GDP growth in Q3:19 slowed by 0.2 pps to 6% yoy (consensus:

6.1% yoy) from 6.3% yoy on average in H1:2019, despite an

acceleration in economic activity in September. Specifically,

retail sales growth was 7.8% yoy in September compared with

7.5% yoy in August. Overall in Q3:19, retail sales rose by 7.6% yoy,

on average, versus 8.5% yoy in Q2:18, with that deceleration being

solely due to sales of automobiles (-4.3% yoy, on average, in Q3:19

| +5.7% yoy in Q2:19). Indeed, the annual pace of growth of retail

sales excluding automobiles was steady at +8.7% yoy. Industrial

production growth improved to 5.8% yoy in September, versus

4.4% yoy in August. Nevertheless, overall in Q3:19, industrial

production grew by 5.0% yoy on average, below the respective

pace in Q2:19 (5.6%). Finally, fixed asset investment growth was

broadly steady at 5.4% yoy in September and averaged 5.5% in

Q3:19 compared with 5.8% yoy, on average, in the previous

quarter. The deceleration was mostly due to investment in real

estate, which slowed to (a still solid) +10.5% yoy on average in

Q3:19 versus +11.3% in Q2:19. On the other hand, the average

annual pace of growth of manufacturing investment and

investment in infrastructure was broadly stable during Q3:19, at

2.8% yoy and 4.2% yoy, respectively, with the latter benefitting

from policy support.

Looking forward, consensus expects a similar pace of GDP growth

in Q4:19. According to the IMF (October World Economic Outlook),

Chinese GDP growth in 2019 will come out at 6.1% yoy and at 5.8%

yoy in 2020 from 6.6% yoy in 2018.


O F G R E E C E

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section


3

Quotes of the week: “So the motivation to find a pathway to

a (trade) deal comes from the fact that the world economy

is slowing down, we are in a synchronized slowdown… By

2020, tariffs already imposed or announced would shrink

global GDP by 0.8%. That is equivalent to the whole

economy of Switzerland”, IMF Managing Director,

Kristalina Georgieva, October 17th 2019.

Equities

Global equity markets rose in the past week due to positive news on trade

and Brexit, as well as supportive company results in the US Financial sector.

Gains were trimmed on Friday, following weak Chinese GDP data as well as less

optimism regarding a Brexit deal. Overall, the MSCI World index ended the week

up by 0.8% (+15% ytd), with emerging markets (+1.2% wow | +6% ytd)

overperforming their developed markets peers (+0.7% wow | +16.5% ytd). The

S&P500 rose by 0.5% wow, with Autos (+3.5% wow) and Banks (+2.7% wow)

leading the increase. The US Q3:2019 earnings season started on a positive note.

Specifically, Citi ($2.07 vs consensus for $1.95), JPMorgan ($2.64 vs $2.45) Bank

of America ($0.56 vs $0.54) and Morgan Stanley ($1.21 vs $1.11) recorded

better-than-expected EPS. Goldman Sachs was largely in line with consensus

($4.79), while Wells Fargo undershot expectations ($0.92 vs $1.24). Note,

however, that revenue growth was slightly lower than the previous quarter as

lending margins were tighter mainly due to lower interest rates and a flattening

yield curve, while some banks (e.g. JPMorgan) noted a cooling of the US

economy. Overall, out of the 75 companies that have reported results, so far,

circa 81% have exceeded analyst estimates. Note that analyst expectations for

EPS growth in Q3:19 stand at -4.8% yoy, from -0.4% yoy in Q2:19 and -0.2% yoy

in Q1:19. Regarding sectors, four of them are expected to report growth, led by

the Real Estate (+5.1% yoy) and Utilities (+4.7% yoy), while seven sectors are

reporting a decline, led by Energy (-40.3% yoy), Materials (-10.2% yoy) and

Information Technology (-10.1% yoy). On the other side of the Atlantic,

Eurostoxx was broadly stable on a weekly basis, with Banks overperforming

(+2.7% wow). Regarding the Q3 earnings season, EPS growth is expected at -

3.7% yoy from -2.1% yoy in Q2:19 and -2% yoy in Q1:19. Finally, the UK’s

FTSE100 index underperformed, declining by 1.3% in the past week, due to a

stronger British Pound (circa 70% of FTSE 100 companies’ revenue is earned

abroad).

Fixed Income Government bond yields rose on a weekly basis due to reduced “safe

haven” demand by investors. Specifically, the US Treasury 10-year yield

increased by 2 bps wow to 1.74% and 3-month UST Bill was broadly stable at

1.67%. As a result, the 10year/3month spread entered positive territory for the

first time since May (+9 bps), alleviating recession concerns. In the UK, the 10

year yield was highly volatile in the past week, conditioned on Brexit

developments. Overall, it ended the week broadly stable at 0.71%, albeit it rose

on Monday (+4 bps to 0.77%), on the back of renewed optimism on Brexit

negotiations. In Germany, the 10-year yield rose by 6 bps wow to -0.38%, while

periphery 10-year government bond yields were broadly stable (Italy: 0.93%,

Spain: 0.25%, Portugal: 0.20%). Corporate bond spreads rallied in the past

week. Indeed, US HY spreads declined by 8 bps to 402 bps, while their euro area

counterparts were down by 12 bps to 362 bps. In the investment grade

spectrum, both USD and EUR spreads were down by 4 bps to 118 bps and 106

bps, respectively.

FX and Commodities In foreign exchange markets, the British Pound appreciated by 2.6%

against the US dollar to $1.298, and by 1.3% against the euro to €/0.861.

The US dollar depreciated by -1.2% to $1.117 due, inter alia, to weaker-than-

expected economic data (retail sales, industrial production). Finally in

commodities, oil prices declined in the past week on the back of mixed

prospects for demand (global growth concerns) and an increase in US oil

inventories for a 5th consecutive week. Specifically, US oil inventories rose by

+9.3 million barrels to 435 million barrels for the week ending October 11th.

Overall, the WTI declined by 1.7% wow to $53.8/bbl and Brent by 2.5% wow to

$59.0/bbl. Gold was broadly stable in the past week at $1490/ounce. However, it

has declined by c. 4% from its September highs, due to positive news on the

“trade-war” front.

Graph 3.

Graph 2.

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Feb-

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May

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Jun

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Developed Markets Emerging Markets

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg, January 2019 = 0

Developed vs Emerging Markets: Price Performance

% %

0,5 0,20,1 0,0 0,0 -0,1

-0,3-0,3

-0,5

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-2,5 -4,8-5,0

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EPS Growth Contribution

Source: NBG Research, Factset

S&P500 Q3:2019: EPS Growth Contribution by Sector

%

Graph 1.

NBG Global Markets Roundup | NBG 12-Month View & Key Factors for Global Markets


4


O F G R E E C E

Eq

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US Euro Area Japan UK

Reduced short-term tail

risks

Higher core bond yields

Current account surplus

▬ Sluggish growth

▬ Deflation concerns

▬ The ECB’s monetary

policy to remain extra

loose (Targeted-LTROs,

ABSs, Quantitative

Easing)

Safe-haven demand

▬ Fed is expected to cut rates

in H2:2019

▬ Mid-2018 rally probably out

of steam

Safe haven demand

More balanced economic

growth recovery (long-

term)

Inflation is bottoming out

▬ Additional Quantitative

Easing by the Bank of

Japan if inflation does not

approach 2%

Transitions phase

negotiations

The BoE is expected to

increase short-term policy

rates assuming WA deal

▬ Sizeable Current account

deficit

▬ Elevated Policy

uncertainty to remain due

to the outcome of the

Referendum and the

negotiating process

Valuations appear

excessive compared

with long-term

fundamentals

▬ Political Risks

▬ Fragile growth outlook

▬ Medium-term inflation

expectations remain

low

▬ ECB could restart QE

▬ ECB QE “stock” effect

Valuations appear rich with

term-premium close to 0%

Underlying inflation

pressures if Fed seek

makeup strategies

▬ Global search for yield by

non-US investors continues

▬ Safe haven demand

▬ Fed is expected to cut rates

in H2:2019

Elevated Policy



Brexit negotiating process

Inflation overshooting due

to GBP weakness feeds

through inflation

expectations

The BoE is expected to

increase short-term policy

rates assuming WA deal

▬ Slowing economic growth

post-Brexit

Sizeable fiscal deficits

Restructuring efforts to

be financed by fiscal

policy measures

▬ Safe haven demand

▬ Extremely dovish

central bank

▬ Yield-targeting of 10-

Year JGB at around 0%

Still high equity risk

premium relative to other

regions

Credit conditions gradual

turn more favorable

Small fiscal loosening in

2019

▬ 2019 EPS estimates may

turn pessimistic due to

plateuning economic

growth

▬ Political uncertainty (Italy,

Brexit) could intensify

Fiscal loosening will support

the economy & companies’

earnings

2019 EPS growth

expectations have stabilized

Cash-rich corporates will

lead to share buybacks and

higher dividends (de-

equitization)

▬ Peaking profit margins

▬ Protectionism and trade

wars

Still aggressive QE and “yield-

curve” targeting by the BoJ

Upward revisions in corporate

earnings

▬ Signs of policy fatigue

regarding structural reforms

and fiscal discipline

▬ Strong appetite for foreign

assets

▬ JPY appreciation in a risk-off

scenario could hurt exporters

65% of FTSE100 revenues

from abroad

Undemanding valuations

in relative terms

High UK exposure to the

commodities sector

assuming the oil rally re-

emerges

▬ Elevated Policy



Brexit negotiating process

Neutral Neutral/Positive Neutral

Slightly higher yields

expected

Higher yields expected

Stable yields expected

Higher yields expected but

with Brexit risk premia

working on both directions

Broadly Flat EUR

against the USD with

upside risks towards

$1.17

Neutral/Negative

Higher GBP expected but

with Brexit risk premia

working on both directions

Broadly Flat USD

against the EUR with

upside risks towards

$1.17

Slightly higher JPY

NBG Global Markets Roundup | NBG 12-Month View & Key Factors for South Eastern European Markets


5


O F G R E E C E

Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia

Emerging Markets Research, Head: Dr. Michael Loufir, tel:210-3341211, email: [email protected]

Fo

reig

n D

eb

t

Attractive valuations

▬ Weak foreign investor

appetite for emerging

market assets

▬ Persisting domestic

financial crisis

Strong economic activity




market assets


Low-yielding domestic

debt and deposits



market assets




market assets

Eq

uit

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D

om

est

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Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia

Low public debt-to-GDP

ratio

▬ Loosening fiscal stance

▬ Stubbornly high inflation


financial crisis

Low public debt-to-GDP

ratio

▬ Easing fiscal stance

▬ Envisaged tightening in

monetary policy

Very low public debt-to-

GDP ratio and large fiscal

reserves

Positive inflation outlook

Policy Coordination

Instrument with the IMF

Restored fiscal and public

debt sustainability

Acceleration in economic

activity

▬ Large public sector

borrowing requirements

High foreign debt yields

▬ Sizeable external

financing requirements



market assets


financial crisis

▬ Large external financing

requirements

▬ Heightened domestic

political uncertainty

Solidly-based currency

board arrangement, with

substantial buffers



requirements

Ongoing EU membership

negotiations

Policy Coordination


▬ Sizable external financing

requirements

▬ Reinvigorated progress in

structural reforms

Currency board

arrangement

Large foreign currency

reserves and fiscal

reserves



requirements



High domestic debt yields


requirements



market assets

▬ Persisting geopolitical risks

and domestic financial crisis

▬ Escalating global trade war


requirements



Ongoing EU membership

negotiations

Policy Coordination


Large FDIs


requirements

Neutral/Positive Neutral/Positive Neutral/Positive Neutral/Positive

Stable to lower yields Stable to lower yields Stable to higher yields Stable to lower yields

Stable to narrowing

spreads

Stable to narrowing

spreads

Stable to narrowing

spreads

Weaker to stable TRY

against the EUR

Stable BGN against the

EUR

Stable to widening

spreads

Weaker to stable RON

against the EUR

Stable to stronger RSD

against the EUR

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic & Markets Forecasts


6


O F G R E E C E

Economic Indicators Stock Markets (in local currency)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f

Real GDP Growth (%) Country - Index

Turkey 6,1 3,2 7,5 2,8 0,4 3,5 Turkey - ISE100 97.324 3,6 7,6 -10,3

Romania 3,9 4,8 7,0 4,1 4,2 3,6 Romania - BET-BK 1.768 0,7 21,4 7,4

Bulgaria 3,5 3,9 3,8 3,1 3,8 3,3 Bulgaria - SOFIX 565 0,6 -4,9 -15,4

Serbia 1,8 3,3 2,0 4,3 3,6 3,8 Serbia - BELEX15 749 0,5 -1,6 3,0

Headline Inflation (eop,%)

Turkey 8,8 8,5 11,9 20,3 13,0 10,5

Romania -0,9 -0,5 3,3 3,3 4,0 3,5 1-m Money Market Rate (%)

Bulgaria -0,4 0,1 2,8 2,7 2,9 2,7 Turkey 15,7 15,0 14,0 12,0

Serbia 1,5 1,6 3,0 2,0 1,8 2,0 Romania 2,8 3,0 3,0 3,0

Bulgaria(*) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1

Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Serbia 1,7 2,0 2,2 2,3

Turkey -3,7 -3,8 -5,5 -3,5 -0,5 -2,0 Currency

Romania -1,2 -2,1 -3,2 -4,5 -5,4 -5,6 TRY/EUR 6,53 6,72 6,90 7,35

Bulgaria 0,1 3,2 3,5 5,4 6,2 5,3 RON/EUR 4,76 4,80 4,82 4,85

Serbia -3,5 -2,9 -5,3 -5,2 -5,0 -4,5 BGN/EUR 1,96 1,96 1,96 1,96

RSD/EUR 117,6 116,5 116,0 115,0

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Sovereign Eurobond Spread (bps)

Turkey -1,0 -1,1 -1,5 -1,9 -2,9 -3,5 Turkey (USD 2025)(**) 482 520 500 450

Romania -1,5 -2,4 -2,8 -2,9 -3,6 -3,8 Romania (EUR 2024) 87 105 100 95

Bulgaria -2,8 1,6 0,8 0,1 -1,5 -0,5 Bulgaria (EUR 2022) 50 55 50 40

Serbia -3,5 -1,2 1,1 0,6 -0,5 -0,4 Serbia (EUR 2029) 147 158 155 150

f: NBG forecasts (*) Base interest rate (**) Spread over US Treasuries

Financial Markets

Last week

return (%)21/10/2019

Year-to-Date

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

21/10/20193-month

forecast

6-month

forecast

12-month

forecast

South Eastern Europe Economic Forecasts

2017a Q1:18a Q2:18a Q3:18a Q4:18a 2018a Q1:19a Q2:19a Q3:19f Q4:19f 2019f

2,3 2,9 3,2 3,1 2,5 2,9 2,7 2,3 2,0 2,1 2,3

- 2,6 3,5 2,9 1,1 - 3,1 2,0 1,7 1,7 -

Private Consumption 2,6 1,7 4,0 3,5 1,4 3,0 1,1 4,6 2,6 2,2 2,5

Government Consumption 0,7 1,9 2,6 2,1 -0,4 1,7 2,9 4,8 1,7 1,7 2,3

Investment 4,2 5,5 5,2 0,7 2,7 4,6 3,2 -1,4 2,5 1,2 1,8

Residential 3,5 -5,2 -3,7 -4,0 -4,6 -1,5 -1,1 -2,9 4,5 2,1 -1,8

Non-residential 4,4 8,8 7,9 2,1 4,8 6,4 4,4 -1,0 0,9 1,0 2,7

Inventories Contribution 0,0 0,2 -1,5 2,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 -1,0 0,0 0,0 0,2

Net Exports Contribution -0,4 0,0 0,7 -2,4 -0,4 -0,4 0,8 -0,8 -0,5 -0,3 -0,3

Exports 3,5 0,8 5,8 -6,2 1,5 3,0 4,2 -5,7 2,9 2,1 0,2

Imports 4,7 0,6 0,3 8,6 3,5 4,4 -1,5 0,0 4,7 3,0 2,1

Inflation (3) 2,1 2,2 2,7 2,6 2,2 2,4 1,6 1,8 1,7 2,1 1,8

2017a Q1:18a Q2:18a Q3:18a Q4:18a 2018a Q1:19a Q2:19a Q3:19f Q4:19f 2019f

2,5 2,6 2,3 1,7 1,2 1,9 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,2

- 1,3 1,5 0,8 1,2 - 1,7 0,8 0,8 1,0 -

Private Consumption 1,8 1,9 0,5 0,7 1,6 1,4 1,6 0,8 1,4 1,3 1,2

Government Consumption 1,5 0,5 1,4 0,7 1,5 1,1 1,6 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,3

Investment 3,8 0,9 7,0 2,1 6,2 2,3 0,8 2,2 0,8 1,0 2,6

Inventories Contribution 0,1 0,8 -0,1 0,8 -1,3 0,0 -0,8 0,0 -0,3 -0,2 -0,4

Net Exports Contribution 0,5 -0,8 -0,4 -0,9 0,1 0,4 1,2 -0,4 -0,1 0,0 0,1

Exports 5,7 -2,0 4,4 1,6 4,0 3,5 3,8 0,1 1,6 1,9 2,5

Imports 5,0 -0,4 5,7 3,7 4,0 2,7 1,5 0,9 1,9 2,1 2,5

Inflation 1,5 1,3 1,7 2,1 1,9 1,8 1,4 1,4 0,9 1,2 1,3a: Actual, f: Forecasts, 1. Seasonally adjusted YoY growth rate, 2. Seasonally adjusted annualized QoQ growth rate, 3. Year-to-year average % change

Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar) (2)

Euro AreaReal GDP Growth (YoY)

Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar)

United States

Real GDP Growth (YoY) (1)

Economic Forecasts

October 18th 3-month 6-month 12-month October 18th 3-month 6-month 12-month

Germany -0,38 -0,50 -0,40 -0,30 Euro area 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

US 1,76 1,80 1,90 2,00 US 2,00 2,00 1,75 1,50

UK 0,71 0,65 0,70 0,79 UK 0,75 0,70 0,65 0,60

Japan -0,13 -0,21 -0,18 -0,13 Japan -0,10 -0,14 -0,14 -0,14

Currency October 18th 3-month 6-month 12-month October 18th 3-month 6-month 12-month

EUR/USD 1,12 1,13 1,15 1,15 USD/JPY 108 106 104 103

EUR/GBP 0,86 0,88 0,87 0,87 GBP/USD 1,30 1,29 1,32 1,32

EUR/JPY 121 119 119 118

Official Rate (%)10-Yr Gov. Bond Yield (%)

Forecasts at end of period

Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Forecasts

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic News & Events Calendar


7


O F G R E E C E

rat

Tuesday 15 Wednesday 16 Thursday 17

UK S A P US S A P US S A P

ILO Unemployment Rate August 3.8% + 3.9% 3.8% Retail Sales Advance MoM September 0.3% - -0.3% 0.6% Building permits (k) September 1350 + 1387 1425

GERMANY Retail sales ex-autos (MoM) September 0.2% - -0.1% 0.2% Housing starts (k) September 1320 - 1256 1386

ZEW survey current situation October -23.6 - -25.3 -19.9

ZEW survey expectations October -26.4 + -22.8 -22.5

CHINA Initial Jobless Claims (k) October 12 215 + 214 210

CPI (YoY) September 2.9% + 3.0% 2.8% Continuing Claims (k) October 5 1675 - 1679 1689

Aggregate Financing (RMB bn) September 1900.0 + 2270.0 2017.5 UK Industrial Production (MoM) September -0.2% - -0.4% 0.8%

New Yuan Loans (RMB bn) September 1360.0 + 1690.0 1210.0 CPI (YoY) September 1.8% - 1.7% 1.7% UK

Money Supply M0 (YoY) September .. 4.0% 4.8% CPI Core (YoY) September 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% Retail sales Ex Auto MoM September 2.9% + 3.0% 2.2%

Money Supply M1 (YoY) September 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% EURO AREA

Money Supply M2 (YoY) September 8.2% 8.4% 8.2% Trade Balance SA (€ bn) August 18.0 + 20.3 17.5

Friday 18 Monday 21

JAPAN S A P JAPAN S A P

CPI (YoY) September 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Exports YoY September -3.7% - -5.2% -8.2%

Core CPI (YoY) - ex. Fresh Food September 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Imports YoY September -2.8% + -1.5% -11.9%

CHINA

Industrial production (YoY) September 4.9% + 5.8% 4.4%

Retail sales (YoY) September 7.8% 7.8% 7.5%

GDP (sa, QoQ) Q3:19 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

GDP (YoY) Q3:19 6.1% - 6.0% 6.2%

Tuesday 22 Wednesday 23 Thursday 24

US S A P EURO AREA S A P US S A P

Existing home sales (mn) September 5.45 .. 5.49 Durable goods orders (MoM) September -0.7% .. 0.2%

Initial Jobless Claims (k) October 19 215 .. 214

Continuing Claims (k) October 12 1675 .. 1679

Markit US Manufacturing PMI October 50.7 .. 51.1

New home sales (k) September 701 .. 713

JAPAN

PMI manufacturing October .. .. 48.9

EURO AREA

Markit Eurozone Services PMI October 51.9 .. 51.6

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI October 50.3 .. 50.1

Friday 25 Monday 28

GERMANY S A P EURO AREA S A P

IFO- Business Climate Indicator October 94.5 .. 94.6 M3 money supply (YoY) September .. .. 5.7%

IFO-Expectations October 91.0 .. 90.8

IFO- Current Assesment October 98.0 .. 98.5

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

S: Bloomberg Consensus Analysts Survey, A: Actual Outcome, P: Previous Outcome

Core CPI (YoY) - ex. Fresh Food

and EnergySeptember 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%

Net Long-term TIC Flows ($ bn) August .. -41.1 83.8

Philadelphia Fed Business

OutlookOctober 7.6 5.6 12.0

NAHB housing market

confidence indexOctober 68 + 71

Durable goods orders ex

transportation (MoM)

Consumer Confidence Indicator October -6.8 ..

-0.3%September .. 0.5%

-6.5

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing

PMIOctober 46.0 .. 48.7

ECB announces its intervention

rate

ECB announces its deposit

facility rate

October 24 0.00%

October 24 -0.50%

.. 0.00%

.. -0.50%

68

Economic News Calendar for the period: October 15 - October 28, 2019

In the US, durable goods orders (September) and new home sales

(October) announcements, with gather investors’ attention.

In the Euro area, attention turns to PMIs for October, as they will provide

valuable insight regarding the current economic momentum. Recall that

PMI Manufacturing remains below the expansion/contraction threshold

of 50 for 8 consecutive months. Meanwhile ECB is not expected to

announce any further easing measures on Thursday. Recall that on

September meeting ECB cut the deposit facility rate by 10 bps to -0.50%

and announced a new QE programme of €20bn per month.

In Japan, October PMI manufacturing is released on Thursday. Note that

September figure was at 48.9.

Economic Calendar

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

Ma

y-1

8

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

Ma

y-1

9

Sep

-19

France Germany Euro Area

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

Manufacturing PMIs

Estimates

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Financial Markets Monitor


8


O F G R E E C E

Developed MarketsCurrent

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)Emerging Markets

Current

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

US S&P 500 2986 0,5 19,1 7,9 16,6 MSCI Emerging Markets 57238 1,0 7,1 6,2 -4,8

Japan NIKKEI 225 22493 3,2 12,4 -0,7 5,3 MSCI Asia 844 1,2 7,6 6,2 -7,4

UK FTSE 100 7151 -1,3 6,3 1,8 -5,2 China 77 0,3 8,7 8,9 -11,4

Canada S&P/TSX 16377 -0,2 14,3 6,3 3,8 Korea 639 0,5 5,7 -1,1 -15,6

Hong Kong Hang Seng 26720 1,6 3,4 5,0 -6,9 MSCI Latin America 94667 0,4 9,5 8,5 9,5

Euro area EuroStoxx 385 0,3 17,3 8,3 -1,8 Brazil 334636 0,6 15,8 19,9 28,7

Germany DAX 30 12634 1,0 19,6 9,0 -3,1 Mexico 40087 0,1 3,5 -7,6 -15,1

France CAC 40 5636 -0,5 19,1 10,2 4,7 MSCI Europe 5918 1,2 11,5 11,4 12,8

Italy FTSE/MIB 22322 0,7 21,8 16,9 -0,1 Russia 1250 1,5 17,6 17,2 33,8

Spain IBEX-35 9330 0,6 9,2 5,0 -9,2 Turkey 1337598 -0,6 6,8 1,2 -9,4

Equity Markets (in local currency)

in US Dollar termsCurrent

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)in local currency

Current

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

Energy 183,9 -0,9 0,6 -17,5 -12,2 Energy 189,8 -1,3 0,4 -16,8 -10,4

Materials 252,1 0,2 10,8 2,5 -4,9 Materials 243,5 -0,3 11,1 3,5 -2,1

Industrials 259,0 0,8 17,8 5,7 2,6 Industrials 257,3 0,4 18,2 5,9 3,7

Consumer Discretionary 266,1 1,5 19,2 9,6 17,8 Consumer Discretionary 257,4 1,3 19,4 9,5 18,3

Consumer Staples 243,3 -0,3 16,5 11,6 5,6 Consumer Staples 245,4 -0,7 16,8 12,1 7,2

Healthcare 249,6 1,9 8,6 1,4 8,8 Healthcare 247,6 1,6 8,8 1,5 9,6

Financials 117,4 1,8 13,9 3,0 -4,0 Financials 118,4 1,4 14,1 3,8 -1,9

IT 275,4 -0,9 29,3 14,6 30,6 IT 267,0 -1,0 29,4 14,6 30,8

Telecoms 73,5 1,3 19,1 12,4 6,2 Telecoms 76,8 1,1 19,1 12,9 7,7

Utilities 147,1 0,1 16,8 16,8 12,4 Utilities 151,6 -0,2 17,3 17,6 14,2

World Market Sectors (MSCI Indices)

Current Last week Year StartOne Year

Back

10-year

average

Government Bond Yield

Spreads (in bps)Current Last week Year Start

One Year

Back

10-year

average

US 1,76 1,73 2,69 3,18 2,43 US Treasuries 10Y/2Y 18 14 20 30 149

Germany -0,38 -0,44 0,24 0,42 1,19 US Treasuries 10Y/5Y 19 18 17 15 77

Japan -0,13 -0,18 0,00 0,15 0,51 Bunds 10Y/2Y 28 28 85 103 122

UK 0,71 0,71 1,28 1,54 2,04 Bunds 10Y/5Y 24 25 55 60 75

Greece 1,32 1,44 4,40 4,44 10,06

Ireland 0,04 0,04 0,90 1,00 3,55

Italy 0,93 0,94 2,74 3,68 3,23

Spain 0,25 0,24 1,42 1,73 3,04 EM Inv. Grade (IG) 164 162 213 168 215

Portugal 0,20 0,20 1,72 2,03 4,81 EM High yield 547 553 586 476 653

US IG 118 122 159 117 152

Current Last week Year StartOne Year

Back

10-year

averageUS High yield 402 410 533 351 507

30-Year FRM1 (%) 3,9 3,9 4,8 5,1 4,2 Euro area IG 106 110 154 120 142

vs 30Yr Treasury (bps) 167 173 183 174 113 Euro area High Yield 362 374 506 381 496

10-Year Government

Bond Yields

US Mortgage Market

(1. Fixed-rate Mortgage)

One Year

Back

10-year

average

Corporate Bond Spreads

(in bps)Current Last week Year Start

Bond Markets (%)

Current1-week

change (%)

1-month

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)Commodities Current

1-week

change (%)

1-month

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

Euro-based cross rates

EUR/USD 1,12 1,2 1,3 -2,5 -2,6 Agricultural 338 0,7 5,5 -7,6 -3,3

EUR/CHF 1,10 -0,1 -0,1 -3,6 -2,5 Energy 448 -1,3 -5,4 -18,8 16,9

EUR/GBP 0,86 -1,3 -2,7 -2,2 -4,2 West Texas Oil ($) 54 -1,7 -7,5 -21,7 18,4

EUR/JPY 121,10 1,2 1,2 -5,8 -3,7 Crude brent Oil ($) 59 -2,5 -7,9 -25,7 10,9

EUR/NOK 10,23 2,0 3,7 7,9 3,2 Industrial Metals 1210 0,0 0,0 -4,2 1,9

EUR/SEK 10,77 -0,5 0,4 4,0 6,1 Precious Metals 1758 0,4 -1,3 20,6 15,6

EUR/AUD 1,63 0,1 0,7 0,8 0,0 Gold ($) 1490 0,1 -0,3 21,5 16,2

EUR/CAD 1,47 0,5 0,0 -2,2 -6,2 Silver ($) 18 0,0 -1,2 20,4 13,3

USD-based cross rates Baltic Dry Index 1855 -3,6 -18,1 18,5 45,9

USD/CAD 1,31 -0,6 -1,2 0,3 -3,8 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1432 -26,2 84,3 44,9 14,4

USD/AUD 1,46 -0,9 -0,4 3,5 2,8

USD/JPY 108,47 0,1 0,0 -3,3 -1,1

Foreign Exchange

Foreign Exchange & Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, as of October 18th, S&P/Goldman Sachs Indices for Agricultural, Energy, Industrial

& Precious Metals, BofA/ML Indices for Corporate Bond Spreads

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom


9


O F G R E E C E

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets

Under Management, Data as of October 18th

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for

Assets Under Management, Data as of October 18th

Global Cross Asset ETFs: Flows as % of AUM Equity ETFs: Flows as % of AUM

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of October 18th – Rebased @ 100

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of October 18th

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of October 18th – Rebased @ 100


92

94

96

98

100

102

104

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

18-A

pr

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

S&P500 EuroStoxx FTSE 100 Nikkei 225

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1400

1440

1480

1520

1560

1600

1640

1680

1720

18

-Ap

r

2-M

ay

16

-May

30

-May

13

-Ju

n

27

-Ju

n

11-J

ul

25

-Ju

l

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-S

ep

19

-Sep

3-O

ct

17

-Oct

Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right)Russell 2000-Small cap (left)Russell 1000-Large Cap (left)

Equity Market Performance - G4 Equity Market Performance - BRICs

Russell 2000 Value & Growth Index

Russell 2000 & Russell 1000 Index

-15-10-50510152025303540455055606570

-15-10

-505

10152025303540455055606570

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

DM Equities Bonds

EM Equities Commodities% %

84

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

84

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

18-A

pr

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

Brazil China Russia India

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

18

-Ap

r

2-M

ay

16

-May

30

-May

13

-Ju

n

27

-Ju

n

11

-Ju

l

25

-Ju

l

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-S

ep

19

-Sep

3-O

ct

17

-Oct

Value/Growth Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right)Russell 2000 Value (left)Russell 2000 Growth (left)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

US Emerging Markets Europe exUK% %

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom


10


O F G R E E C E

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of October 18th Source: Bloomberg, Data as of October 18th

1,08

1,09

1,10

1,11

1,12

1,13

1,14

1,15

1,08

1,09

1,10

1,11

1,12

1,13

1,14

1,15

18

-Ap

r

2-M

ay

16

-May

30

-May

13

-Ju

n

27

-Ju

n

11

-Ju

l

25

-Ju

l

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-S

ep

19

-Se

p

3-O

ct

17

-Oct

EUR-USD €/$€/$

Stronger USD

EUR/USD

JPY/USD

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of October 18th

LA:Left Axis RA:Right Axis


Source: Bloomberg - Data as of October 18th


-0,8

-0,7

-0,6

-0,5

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

2,4

2,6

2,8

18-A

pr

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

US (LA) UK (LA) Japan (RA) Germany (RA) %%

1.2301.2501.2701.2901.3101.3301.3501.3701.3901.4101.4301.4501.4701.4901.5101.5301.5501.570

1.2301.2501.2701.2901.3101.3301.3501.3701.3901.4101.4301.4501.4701.4901.5101.5301.5501.570

18-A

pr

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

Gold $/ounch$/ounch

10- Year Government Bond Yields 10- Year Government Bond Spreads

West Texas Intermediate ($/brl)

Gold ($/ounch)

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

18-A

pr

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

USD-JPY $/¥$/¥

Stronger JPY

50

100

150

200

250

300

50

100

150

200

250

300

18-A

pr

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

Italy Portugal Spain bpsbps

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

18-A

pr

2-M

ay

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

WTI $/brl$/brl

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics


11


O F G R E E C E

US Sectors Valuation

-9,0

-8,0

-7,0

-6,0

-5,0

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

Hea

lth

Car

e

Uti

litie

s IT

Co

mm

Ser

vice

s

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Re

al E

stat

e

Fin

anci

als

S&P

50

0

Co

ns

Dis

cret

ion

ary

Ind

ust

rial

s

Mat

eri

als

Ener

gy

2019

12-month forward

%

1-month revisions to 2019 & 12-month Forward EPSEarnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2019 & 12-month Forward EPS

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Hea

lth

Car

e

Re

al E

stat

e

Uti

litie

s

Co

mm

Ser

vice

s

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Fin

anci

als

Co

ns

Dis

cret

ion

ary

S&P

50

0 IT

Ind

ust

rial

s

Mat

eri

als

Ener

gy2019

12-month forward

%


P/BV Ratio

18/10/2019 % Weekly Change 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg

S&P500 2986 0,5 18,0 4,5 2,0 1,9 17,4 18,3 16,9 14,9 3,2 3,3 3,1 2,5

Energy 421 -1,7 64,4 -12,3 3,2 4,1 19,9 19,4 16,5 19,5 1,8 1,4 1,4 1,8

Materials 361 0,3 23,5 -15,9 1,9 2,2 16,7 19,2 17,1 14,6 2,6 2,3 2,2 2,5

Financials

Diversified Financials 681 1,2 28,2 5,2 1,3 1,6 16,0 14,7 14,0 13,8 1,9 1,7 1,6 1,5

Banks 337 2,7 24,6 9,9 2,2 2,9 13,0 11,1 10,9 11,4 1,4 1,2 1,2 1,0

Insurance 426 -0,3 33,6 7,1 2,2 2,1 12,2 12,4 11,8 10,7 1,4 1,4 1,3 1,1

Real Estate 247 1,8 5,8 3,2 3,8 3,0 16,7 21,4 20,5 18,2 3,1 3,9 4,0 2,9

Industrials

Capital Goods 679 -0,3 15,3 -2,7 2,0 2,0 19,1 19,0 16,2 15,4 4,7 4,8 4,4 3,3

Transportation 748 1,2 25,0 9,5 1,8 2,0 14,0 13,7 12,9 13,7 3,6 4,1 3,7 3,3

Commercial Services 342 0,8 16,7 8,3 1,5 1,4 22,8 27,5 25,6 19,6 4,1 5,7 5,4 3,3

Consumer Discretionary

Retailing 2396 1,4 22,4 22,3 0,8 0,8 31,1 30,7 27,3 20,7 10,2 12,0 10,4 5,8

Media 603 1,1 18,7 11,8 0,4 0,4 23,6 23,9 21,0 19,5 4,1 3,6 3,3 3,1

Consumer Services 1246 -0,2 16,4 12,1 2,2 2,3 20,8 22,0 20,3 19,0 8,8 14,0 13,4 6,0

Consumer Durables 359 2,4 15,0 -1,0 1,5 1,5 16,7 18,8 17,5 16,9 3,3 3,8 3,5 3,1

Automobiles and parts 116 3,5 -5,4 -10,6 3,7 4,1 7,8 7,7 7,1 8,6 1,6 1,3 1,3 1,7

IT

Technology 1354 0,6 17,0 1,4 1,8 1,6 15,1 17,9 16,6 12,5 5,2 7,9 7,9 3,5

Software & Services 2076 -1,8 14,0 10,4 1,3 1,1 22,5 25,3 23,1 16,8 6,8 7,5 6,8 5,0

Semiconductors 1074 0,1 16,1 -4,8 1,9 2,1 14,8 16,5 15,8 13,9 4,3 4,8 4,4 3,0

Communication Services 170 1,3 17,7 8,5 1,4 1,3 19,1 19,6 17,9 17,0 3,4 3,1 2,9 2,8

Consumer Staples

Food & Staples Retailing 490 0,4 12,1 2,3 2,1 1,7 17,4 21,8 21,0 15,9 3,6 4,6 4,4 3,1

Food Beverage & Tobacco 686 0,9 12,5 -2,7 3,3 3,4 18,3 19,0 17,9 17,3 5,1 5,0 4,7 4,9

Household Goods 708 -2,7 9,9 4,0 3,1 2,4 19,3 24,7 23,4 18,9 5,4 8,5 8,4 4,8

Health Care

Pharmaceuticals 871 0,3 8,3 11,3 2,2 2,3 15,1 14,1 13,2 14,3 4,2 4,8 4,2 3,4

Healthcare Equipment 1248 4,2 13,1 15,7 1,1 1,1 18,0 18,2 16,9 15,0 3,3 3,3 3,0 2,5

Utilities 324 -0,1 5,2 3,8 3,9 3,1 16,4 20,6 19,8 15,4 1,7 2,2 2,1 1,6

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from

average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

EPS Growth (%) P/E RatioPrice ($) Dividend Yield (%)

Source: Factset, Data as of October 18th

12-month forward EPS are 20% of 2019 EPS and 80% of 2020 EPS



NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics


12


O F G R E E C E

Euro Area Sectors Valuation

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18/10/2019 % Weekly Change 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg

EuroStoxx 385 0,3 7,3 -4,3 3,2 3,3 14,8 15,6 14,4 13,1 1,6 1,6 1,6 1,4

Energy 316 -0,3 7,3 10,0 4,8 5,2 13,6 12,5 11,0 11,4 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,2

Materials 469 -0,4 10,1 8,8 3,1 3,3 15,1 14,9 13,9 14,1 1,7 1,8 1,7 1,4

Basic Resources 183 0,1 -4,3 -43,7 2,2 3,6 12,7 15,4 11,6 13,7 1,2 0,7 0,7 0,9

Chemicals 1103 0,1 5,1 -22,5 2,8 2,8 16,0 20,7 19,0 15,0 2,4 2,0 1,9 2,2

Financials

Fin/al Services 490 0,3 15,4 6,6 2,5 2,5 15,9 15,9 15,7 14,0 1,7 1,6 1,6 1,3

Banks 91 2,7 12,1 -8,8 4,1 6,1 11,5 8,5 8,3 10,1 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,7

Insurance 294 1,4 14,2 9,6 5,0 5,1 10,8 10,5 10,2 9,2 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,9

Real Estate 241 2,0 9,3 3,5 4,2 4,3 18,7 18,7 17,9 16,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0

Industrial 872 -0,1 12,1 4,6 2,6 2,6 18,1 18,2 16,6 15,1 2,8 2,9 2,7 2,3

Consumer Discretionary

Media 226 0,8 0,2 9,5 3,7 3,7 17,6 16,1 15,2 15,5 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,1

Retail 537 0,2 11,4 5,2 2,7 2,8 20,3 21,7 20,0 18,4 2,8 3,4 3,2 2,7

Automobiles and parts 475 1,8 4,6 -21,3 3,3 4,0 8,2 8,2 7,5 9,0 1,2 0,9 0,8 1,0

Travel and Leisure 188 -0,5 2,1 -29,8 1,7 2,2 12,0 13,9 11,8 16,3 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,8

Technology 563 -1,3 2,7 2,2 1,6 1,4 21,4 23,8 20,9 17,9 3,6 3,9 3,6 2,9

Communication Services 314 2,0 -1,1 -8,2 4,4 4,4 14,4 16,7 15,3 13,9 1,8 2,0 1,9 1,8

Consumer Staples

Food&Beverage 624 -3,3 15,4 4,6 2,9 2,0 20,6 21,1 20,1 18,3 2,9 2,9 2,7 2,6

Household Goods 1023 -0,4 7,8 12,6 1,9 1,7 23,2 27,0 25,0 20,4 4,3 5,5 5,1 3,6

Health care 794 0,9 5,0 -2,1 2,5 2,4 17,0 17,6 16,3 14,9 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,1

Utilities 340 -0,3 -4,1 12,9 5,2 4,6 14,0 15,9 14,8 12,5 1,2 1,5 1,5 1,1

Price (€) P/BV RatioDividend Yield (%)EPS Growth (%)

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from

average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

P/E Ratio





NBG Global Markets Roundup | Disclosures & Analyst Certification


13


O F G R E E C E

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