real-time system
DESCRIPTION
Real-time system. Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecast Systems. An opportunity to determine the best way forward for OOFS. An opportunity to determine the best way forward for OOFS OOFS requires continuous development path to reach the quality of services users require - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Expert Team on
Operational Ocean Forecast Systems
An opportunity to determine the best way forward for OOFS
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An opportunity to determine the best way forward for OOFS
OOFS requires continuous development path to reach the quality of services users require
Consolidation and transition maturing GODAE systems to full operation
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Proposed linkage to GOV-ST
- Members of GOV-ST be encouraged to contribute/respond to ET-OOFS related activities
- ET-OOFS and GOV-ST to be jointly presented to stakeholders and international forum
- ET-OOFS and GOV-ST maintain communication on matters relating to OOFS of potential interest to either group
- TT-OSE, TT-Inter-comparison have a joint set of tasks from both groups
- An ET-OOFS member be a member of the TT’s to lead the ET-OOFS tasks within the TT
Background
Ocean forecasting requires integration within JCOMM
SPA is tasked with coordinating integration of services
Expert teams are how SPA achieves its goals
SPA proposed the formation of ET-OOFS, Dec 2007
“Objective transition mature GODAE systems full operation”
JCOMM-MAN approved the proposal
ET-OOFS has been formed to carry out the ToR
ET is under SPA and is Service focused
Staying focused
It will not be productive to debate the formation of ET-OOFS
It is critical that ET-OOFS not be obstructed in achieving its ToR. GOV-ST need to be unanimous in support for ET-OOFS
It will be critical that all members of ET-OOFS and GOV-ST provide a unified position to the stakeholders and wider community
These groups must complement and not be engaged in a competition
Debate for how best to serve the stakeholders for ocean forecasting services will occur leading up to JCOMM-IV
GODAE is familiar having a 10 year history
ET-OOFS is new and a possible source of confusion
Propose that we focus on:
Clarify JCOMM/SPA/ET structure
Determine how GOV-ST can support ET-OOFS
Propose clarification to the roles and responsibilities
Propose a joint way forward for OO
Note ET-OOFS will meet post GOV-ST to discuss the proposal
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Key themes
- coordination, regulation and management
- fully integrated observing, data management and service systems
- responsive to interdisciplinary user needs
- outreach and capacity building
- improved products for MSS, MAES, SI (WMO)
Joint WMO-IOC technical commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology
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IOC WMO
JCOMM-MAN
SPA OPA
ETOOFS ETWS
Family tree – not static, preparing for JCOMMIII
Services Programme Area
Facilitate the development and application of globally distributed marine meteorological and oceanographics services
Achieved in partnership with the user community and other programme areas
SPA is oriented towards forecasting products and associated services, user interaction and feedback
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Expert teams
Goal:
Improve the quality of services provided by the agencies of member states in their respective theme
Types of Objectives:
Develop guidance for operational agencies to encourage adoption of best practices and standards for services across agencies
Develop and maintain requirements documentation for operational systems
Monitor and evaluate effectiveness of services
Coordinate actions to address identified deficiencies in services
ET-OOFS: Current ToR – under review for JCOMMIII
ET-OOFS TOR - overview
The guide to operational ocean forecasting – WMO requires the development of guides for operational agencies who intend to support services. ET’s develop these guides.
Provide guidance to teams on the application, nomenclature, symbology and standards used by OOFS – few standards exist for presenting forecast information, symbols used or guidance on application of products. ET-OOFS will seek to coordinate the development and adoption of such standards.
ET-OOFS TOR - overviewDevelop and operate an inter-comparison framework for NRT monitoring of OOFS – ET-OOFS will work with the community to transfer mature inter-comparison metrics and observation metrics developed under GODAE and GODAE OceanView and maintain the set of metrics to be performed and reported by each operational system. ET-OOFS will report in real-time and in summary on these metrics.
Work effectively with the science community developing OOFS – ET-OOFS will attend GOV-ST and present on its activities and proposals. ET-OOFS will seek coordination with GOV-ST. It is proposed that Task teams – OSE and Inter-comparison be joint TT’s
ET-OOFS TOR - overview
Provide observation requirements for OOFS to OPA – ET-OOFS will maintain the OOFS statement of guidance. ET-OOFS will review requirements of existing systems and new systems.
Provide advice to JCOMM DMPA – ET-OOFS will coordinate the transition of data management infrastructure developed under GODAE into JCOMM DMPA.
Provide advice to Members/Member states on OOFS – ET-OOFS will respond to WMO/IOC/JCOMM etc on OOFS related matters.
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Current members: Gary Brassington (Chair), Bureau of Meteorology Jim Cummings, US NavyEric Dombrowsky, MercatorMing Ji, NOAA/NCEP Adrian Hines, UKMetOffice Masafumi Kamachi, MRI, Japan Fraser Davidson, DFO-NAFC, Canada
Secretariat and JCOMMAlbert Fisher, IOCAlice Soares, WMOPeter Dexter, Co-president JCOMMCraig Donlon Services Program AreaBob Keeley, Data Management Program AreaCandyce Clark, Observation Program Area
Current
ET-OOFS – specific tasks
The guide to operational ocean forecasting systems – Adrian Hines
Monitoring of operational systems – Jim Cummings / Gary Brassington / Masafumi Kamachi
Ocean services – Ming Ji / Fraser Davidson
Pilot task team data management – Frederique Blanc
Observational requirements – Gary Brassington
Develop workplan under JCOMM3
ET-OFS – proposed membership
Task members
1 member(chair) - Intergovernmental coordination, communication and reporting
1 member – research requirements (connection GOV etc)1 member – observational requirements (connection OPA, GSSC etc.)1 member – guide and nomenclature documentation1 member – operational system status and monitoring1 member – service status agency requirements (connection agency)1 member - user community liaison coordinator (benefit/performance)1 member – outreach and capacity building1 member – Data management and operations infrastructure1 member – MAES system integration1 member - SI system integration(A vice chair selected by the chair from the task members)
Proposed
ET-OFS - membership
Special interest members1 member – MSS system developmentGOV – chairs (officio)1 member - CAS/WGNE
Open membersMyOcean and US-IOOSOperational agencies supporting operational ocean prediction systemsOperational agencies developing ocean forecasting systemsRegional alliances companion service groups (IO-GOOS, etc…)
Statement of Guidance – demonstration of ET-OOFS role
http://www.jcomm.info/ocg3
Observations Programme Area Coordination Group
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Proposed ET-OOFS tasks for TT-OSE
- Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend observational requirements
- Prepare recommendations based on evidence of cost effective metrics for operational monitoring of operational systems. ET-OOFS to review and include in the “The guide” as part of the operational monitoring system
-Prepare a report on specific metrics for ET-OOFS to submit to the next RRR process and contribute to the “Statement of Guidance”
- Developing the cost vs benefit case. Feedback on what the TT can deliver to this process.
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Proposed ET-OOFS tasks for TT-Intercomparison
- Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend system changes
- Prepare recommendations of mature and cost efficient metrics for operational monitoring of operational systems. ET-OOFS to review and include in the “The guide” as part of the operational monitoring system
- Adapt existing metrics to standards for transition to
- Adapt frameworks to standards to facilitate transition of future metrics to operations
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Proposed linkage to GOV-ST
-Members of GOV-ST be encouraged to contribute/respond to ET-OOFS related activities
- ET-OOFS and GOV-ST to be jointly presented to stakeholders and international forum
- ET-OOFS and GOV-ST maintain communication on matters relating to OOFS of potential interest to either group
- TT-OSE, TT-Inter-comparison have a joint set of tasks from both groups
- An ET-OOFS member be a member of the TT’s to lead the ET-OOFS tasks within the TT
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Practical matters
-ET-OOFS/GOV-ST to conduct joint meetings
- Membership overlaps
- Joint day for national reporting
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Joint statement
What is a quality service – understanding user applications
What is the performance threshold?i.e., the minimum performance that delivers impact
What is a success / failure?
What is the value of success / cost of failure?e.g., Life or property saved / lost, litigious implications
What proportion can the service contribute to the outcomes?
Sophistication / experience of the users systemse.g., tolerance of bad information, multiple information sources
Predictability of the dependent products
Time – time critical, forecast horizon
Space – region, resolution
Feedback – internal and external
Mixed response to formation of a new group
ET-OOFS is required by JCOMM
If forced to The clear alternative is for GODAE OceanView to become ET-OOFS under SPA
Feedback is that GODAE OceanView wants to remain R&D focused and limit the inter-governmental process
Two groups appears to be the right way forward for this next period of OOFS. Research focused group and a service focused group.
The RRR process
CREATE AND
UPDATE
CREATE AND
UPDATE
CRITICALREVIEW
GENERATE STATEMENT OF GUIDANCE
for each application area
Statement of Guidance
Observing system
capabilities database
User requirements
database
Per
form
ance
Benefit
Per
form
ance
Observational requirements
Observational requirements
Cos
t
Cos
t
Benefit
Co
st
Performance
SPA/ET-OOFS + GOV + Agencies
SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies + User groups
OPA+GSSC+Manufacturers+Operators
Who can help with these problems ?
SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies
NWP surface fluxes, model error growth
Observation coverage, Observation error, Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation
Initialisation, Observation timeliness,
Ocean predictability limits
Operational performance – in practice
Optimum performance curve
Performance target