realization of the low carbon society and the hope for...
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July 17, 2010Tokyo university and Kyushu university;
Symposium for “Development of environmentalfunctional catalyst based on nanotechnology”
Realization of the low carbon societyand the hope for solar energy
Hiroshi KomiyamaChairman of the Institute,Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., JapanPresident emeritus, University of Tokyo
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2
Rapid rate of change andNeed of rapid response
Complicatedness of issues andCompartmentalization of knowledge
Global issues and Essential background
Finite earth and Explosive knowledge
Vision, Structuring of knowledgeand networking
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Improve energy efficiency by three timesImprove energy efficiency by three times
Double the use of renewable energyDouble the use of renewable energy
Establish recycling system of materialsEstablish recycling system of materials
Vision 2050
To realize low carbon society by green innovation,I have been proposing
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Saturation of artifacts in developed countries
0.0113India0.0232China0.4941Germany0.5031France0.5131Britain0.45138USA0.4558Japan
No. of automobiles perpopulation
No. ofautomobiles
(million)
Source:Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
1.The number of automobile ownership(2007)
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2.Transition of number of total houses and households(10 million vacant houses)
Source:1958~2008:Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT)2015~2030:National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Saturation of artifacts in Japan
Total houses (thousand)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030
total houses(thousands)households(thousands)
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セメント生産量:国連統計年鑑人口:UNSD Demographic Statistics、
および国連統計年鑑より
Saturation will come within 10 years in China
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
人口
一人
当たりセメント生
産量
[ton
/人]
JapanChinaUSAFrance
Pro
duct
ion
ofC
emen
tper
pers
on[t
on]
Production of cement per person
Source:Production of Cement:UN Statistical year book
Population:UNSD Demographic Statistics
Year
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Automobile energy can be 1/5 or lower in 2050
Vehicle Weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos
Fue
lCon
sum
ptio
n[L
/km
]
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
US/European Cars
Japanese Cars
Hybrid Cars
Electric & Fuel cells Cars
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1960 1970 1980 1990Year
USDenmarkBelgiumFranceSweden
Source: Japan Cement Association
Japan
Ener
gyCo
nsum
ptio
npe
rton
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
6,000(MJ/t)
theoretical value
Technology transfer can reduce emission
Cement Approaching to a limit
Investment for energy efficiency is win-win-win
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Recycling saves energy
Energy ratio of reduction and melting
Iron 27 times
Aluminum 83 times
As a whole, 3 times improvement is reasonable
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22nd century will be bright
a) 19906.0G C-ton
1.5G
b) 2050 BAU case
c) Vision 2050
d) After 22nd Century
1.5G
22.0G C-ton
3.0G
Fossil resources
Non- Fossil resources
Data: from “Vision 2050”
CO2 369 ppm
CO2 600 ppm
CO2 460 ppm
CO2 280 ppm
4.5G C-ton
Efficiency first, alternative energy second
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0
5
10
15
20
1997 2050 1997 2050
Developed Countries Developing Countries
Em
issi
on
,G
C-t
on
fossil non-fossil
5.0
1.7 2.5
5.8
17.5
80% reduction in developed countries
Compiled data created by The University of Tokyo
Growth is rights but efficiency is duties!
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Technology for the Earth- Vision 2050 -
Publishing is not enough
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Making thingsDaily life
Home
Transportation
Office
Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama
Energy consumption by final use (Japan)
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Air-conditioner28%
Water heating30%
others24%
kitchen8%
Energy consumption in houses
エネルギー・経済統計要覧2009年版より
lighting10%
50%: air-conditioner 20%: lighting in offices
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Water Heater
US (majority)
Tank storage 40%
5
Japan (majority)
Heat-to-use 80%
2.5
Heat-pump (ecocute)
50%×4=200%
1
Fuel cell (enefarm)36% elec. + 50% hot water
0
We need catalysts and materials for better efficiency!
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Komiyama’s Eco-House & Car
81 % Energy Reduction
Solar Power Generation: 3.6kW
Heat Pump Water Heater: COP=4
High Insulation: K=1.6 W/m2K
New air conditioners
Even the existing technologies can do
Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama
Hybrid car: 22km/l
New refrigerator & lightings
Refundable in 12 years
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Proposal by Team Komiyama
Daily life 12%
Making things 3%
Nuclear energy etc. 5%
Forest etc. 5%
CDM 5%
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ー Goal of Vision ー
Energy 70%
Resource 70%
Food 70%
Self-sufficiency of Japan in 2050
Solutions of Japan are those of humankind !
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science &technology society
Inconvenient Truth in S&T-Society relation
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Low Carbon SocietyStrategy Center
Real-time bridging of S&T and Societyby structuring of knowledge
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6 billion people must take actions.
2050 will come soon and sowe don’t have much time any more.
We need structuring of actionsto shorten the lead time.
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Concurrent Approach by Structuring of Actions
Unit knowledge
Action-1
Action-2 Action-4
Action-3
Unit knowledge
Unit knowledge
Unit knowledge
New Action New Action
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23
Paradigm in 21st century
20thCentury
Infinite earth
Shrinking earth
21stCentury
Aging society
•Climate change•Depleting resource•Pollution•Food, water
•Longevity•Small birth rate•Saturating demand•Pension•Medicine•Care•Work sharing•Barrier free …
•Financial crisis•Pandemic …
20001900
CO2
H2OChlorophyll
O2Sunlight
carbohydrateCO2
H2O
photosynthesis
Exploding knowledge
Source:Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P134
Age65~Age65~
Age15~64Age15~64
~age14~age14
Year2005 127millionYear2055 89million
National census 2005, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
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Shrinking earth
Aging society
Eco houseEco applianceEco carSolar panelWind mill
Barrier free buildingHealth monitoringSafe mobilitySenses supporting
Green, silver & golden innovation
Exploding knowledge
Structuring knowledgeStructured knowledge- baseEducationLifelong learningValue creation
Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama
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Layered Structure of Platinum Network
Network of Cities
Network ofUniversities andResearch Institutes
Aomori,Aomori City
North Japan NewEnergy ResearchCenter, Hirosaki Univ.
Kashiwa Campus,Tokyo Univ.
Kita Kyushu City Kashiwa City ,Nagareyama City
Asia Low CarbonCenter
Sister-CityNetwork ofForeign Countries
Center for Low CarbonSociety Strategy, JST
ICAS, IbaragiUniv.
Center for Environment, Healthand Field Sciences, ChibaUniversity
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Future Design Center (FDC):Established to solve national issues, July 2009Concluded agreement with Future Center, The
University of Tokyo
Eco-Model Cities with Action Plans:Kita Kyushu City, Kyoto City, Sakai City, Yokohama City, Iida City,
Obihiro City, Toyama City, Toyota City, Simokawa City,Minamata City, Miyakojima City, Yusuhara-machi, Chiyoda-ku
Platinum Network
MEXT:Chair of Strategy Committee for Low carbon SocietyProposal by MRI: Platinum Society
Platinum Fund
Prefectural Fund
Independent Government Bond(Refundable)
(Eco, Barrier-free, High-quality of life)
as of Feb 10, 2010
Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama
Ibaraki:「Eco ,Agriculture and
Forestry」Under Negotiation
Nagano:Studying
Fukui :Fruitful-Aged Society Agreement:With Institute of Gerontology, The University of Tokyo
Kita Kyushu City:Environmental capital ,Asia low carbon center(tentative) , President
Kumamoto:Under Negotiation
Nao-shima:Eco Town:Planning
Toyota City: Action PlanSpecial Municipal
Committee at Komiyama’Eco House, Oct 29
Shizuoka:Under
Negotiation
Yokohama City: YokoyamaEco School (YES):Honorary adviser
Kawasaki City:Nanofabrication (4 Universities)
Katori City: Studying
Kashiwa & NagareyamaCities:”Kashiwa Int’l Scientific City
Plan”: Industry-Municipality-Academic Collaboration 2005
Aomori:”Aoimori Central ParkLow-Carbon Model Plan”
Kick off, Sep 29:Special Advisor
Hokkaido:Green Society: StudyingHonorable Advisor
Yamatake City: Biomass TownUnder Negotiation
Tokyo: Rainbow Town: Studying
Toyama:Compact CityStudying
Yamaguchi:Studying
Hiroshima:Studying
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present
http://www.t-yakata.com/tyh_dkship.htm
1967
http://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/zu/eav11/eav110000000000.html
Japan’s experience with Sumida river
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present1950’s
Japan’s experience with Yokkaichi
Ⓒ Yokkaichi City
http://www.city.yokkaichi.mie.jp/kankyo/kogai.htm
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Japan’s experience with kitakyusyu
Source:Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P27
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30
東京電力ホームページより作成http://www.tepco.co.jp/csr/report/download/2006/015-j.pdf)http://www.tepco.co.jp/custom/LapLearn/mission/env_02-j.html)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
日 本
カナダ
イタリア
フランス
ドイツ
イギリス
アメリカ
1999年
2002年
発電量当たりのSOx発生量 [g/kWh]
火力発電所からの硫黄酸化物排出原単位の国際比較
4.83.7
3.22.6
1.20.7
7.12.0
2.71.7
4.03.9
0.20.2
Emission of Sulfur Oxides from Thermal Power Plants
Data Source: Tokyo Electric Power Company, web-siteSOx (kg/kwh)
U.S.
U.K.
Germany
Italy
France
Canada
Japan
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Small land areaPoor resourcesLarge populationAgeing societyHighly industrialized
The world in 2050 !
Japan is at the frontier!
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Thank you!