recent developments in postal liberalization and regulation john c. panzar u of auckland and...
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Recent Developments in Postal Liberalization and Regulation
John C. Panzar
U of Auckland and Northwestern U
ESAM 2007, Brisbane
Introduction
Postal Liberalization: The “Final Frontier”? Postal Service one of the last infrastructure industries to
experience “Liberalization For example, the last two years have seen:
Japanese Postal Privatization Act European Commission Proposed Directive for “full market
opening” by 2009 In US passage of Postal A and Enhancement Act reforming
postal regulation. What is the state of competition and regulation in this industry?
Summary
Postal Service as a Network, Infrastructure Industry What is Postal Liberalization and/or Reform? Economic and Policy Issues Research Resources Concluding Remarks
Historical Background
Postal service dates back thousands of years; e.g., Persian Empire
Rowland Hill created the modern postal industry with British “penny post” in 1840 Sender pays Uniform nationwide rates
Royal Mail example spread around the world International Postal Union organized to facilitate
international mail movements
Postal Service as a Network, Infrastructure Industry Like Railroads, Telecom and Electric Power, Postal Services
are provided over a network. Network structure gives rise to:
Economies of scale Economies of scope Geographic cost of service heterogeneity
However, unlike other infrastructure industries, Postal Service involves little in the way of sunk costs Over 80% of costs are labor costs
Components of Postal Value Chain(Scale econ. in collection and delivery) Collection
Mail brought to Local PO from various collection points
Short haul transport Mail transported from Local
PO to Mail Processing Center
Outward Sortation Mail routed to other MPCs
using sorting machines Long haul transport
Mail transported to destination MPC
Inward Sortation Mail directed to destination
Local PO Short haul transport
Mail transported to destination Local PO
Delivery Carriers pick up mail for
their routes; sort in route walk order
Stylized postal network
Local PO
SortingCenter
SortingCenter
Local PO
Carrierroutes
Carrierroutes
OutwardVolumes
OutwardInward
Inward
Long Haul Transport:Air, Rail, Truck
Trucktransport
Trucktransport
Universal Service standards
As in other infrastructure networks, geographically remote areas typically cost more to serve.
Gives rise to issues of uniformity of service quality: Number of collection and delivery points Frequency of delivery Delivery standards Etc.
Universal Service standards vary widely from country to country.
From Ministry to Market: Aspects of Postal Reform/Liberalization: Until recently, Posts were part of government Ministries
Often combined with Telecom The process of Postal Reform involves four distinct steps:
“Commercialization:” creation of a state owned corporate entity
Independent Regulatory supervision Market Liberalization Privatization
First step of Postal Reform tends to be Corporatization Creation of a state owned enterprise: e.g., United States Postal
Service in 1970. Instead of a government department or ministry
Corporatization serves to: Reduce political interference Facilitate budgetary accountability Increase transparency
Second step, creating an independent postal sector regulator. Postal sector regulation introduced to
Ensure the fairness and quality of Universal Service Prevent “unfair competition” against private companies
Postal regulator (e.g., US Postal Rate Commission; PostComm) has responsibility for Rates Quality and performance standards Cross-subsidy analysis
“Indepedence” required: “Each Member State shall designate one or more
national regulatory authorities for the postal sector that are legally separate from and operationally independent of the postal operators.”
Market Liberalization
Introduction of competition into postal markets takes two primary forms: End-to-end, delivery competition
New Zealand Sweden UK
Upstream, “work-sharing” competition US UK
In terms of competitor share of value added, the US is the most “open” postal market despite Draconian delivery restrictions.
Examples of end-to-end and work-sharing competition
Local PO
SortingCenter
SortingCenter
Local PO
Carrierroutes
Carrierroutes
OutwardVolumes
OutwardInward
Inward
Long Haul Transport:Air, Rail, Truck
Trucktransport
Trucktransport
Privatization
Privatization tends to be the final step in the liberalization process.
Despite economic incentive arguments, this step has yet to win wide political acceptance. No “path toward privatization” in recent US reform.
Among EU member posts, only Deutsche Post (Germany) and TNT (Holland) have a majority of shares in private hands Denmark and Malta have begun privatization
Many posts (e.g., Australia and NZ) seem to operate very efficiently as state-owned enterprises.
Table of Postal Reform Progress
Corportization Sector Regulator
Delivery Competition
Privatization
US√ √
Canada√
UK√ √ √
Aus.√ ACCC
NZ√ √
Japan? ?
EU mandates√ √ 2009 optional
Opportunities for Economic Research in Competitive Postal Markets Policy Issues:
Access pricing Competitors must be provided access to
incumbent’s upstream networks Universal Service
Incumbent usually required to maintain a uniform stamp price, despite
Privatization Incentives Political Economy
Theoretical Issue Two-sided postal markets
Toward an Economic Analysis of Postal Privatization Policy Why has privatization played such a minor role in postal
liberalization? E.g., relative to telecommunications.
If the “incentive theory” of privatization cannot provide an adequate “differential diagnosis”
Perhaps an explicit political economy analysis is necessary Obviously, “it’s political.” But, why is the political outcomes
so different?
Postal Access Issues
Is mandated access required for successful liberalization? Are there “monopoly bottlenecks” and essential facilities in postal
networks? Pros of mandating access (by analogy to telecommunications):
Reduce sunk costs of entry Allow entry at small scale Improve network efficiency
Cons Little sunk costs in postal networks May undermine Universal Service Obligation
In any event, how should access be priced?
How should access be priced?
Cost-based, but “Top Down” or “Bottom Up”? E.g., EU (2002) Directive states
“…(special) tariffs shall take account of the avoided costs as compared to the standard service covering the complete range of features...”
“…any such tariffs shall be available to private customers who post under similar conditions…”
US experience with work-sharing rates based upon ECPR Work-sharing discounts based on avoided costs of
USPS (Set in absence of bypass competition.)
UK cost-based, zoned delivery access rates Economic theory, based upon Ramsey-Boiteaux principles, usually
comes out in between.
Postal Universal Service issues are inseparable from Access Pricing policy
Universal Service raise somewhat different issues than those familiar from telecommunications. Geographical uniform pricing Lack of infrastructure to finance
In the postal case, it is even more important to address Universal Service and Access Pricing issues together.
Again, the policy issues (and appropriate economic models) differ from country to country.
I will try to give a perspective in terms of the recent Proposed Directive of the European Commission
EC Proposed Directive
“Full Market Opening” by 2009 Eliminates all Reserved Services
Maintains Minimum Universal Service Standards on Member States E.g., 5 Deliveries per week Permits Uniform Pricing of Single Piece Mail
Allows for Alternative USO Funding Mechanisms: State Aid Public Procurement Compensation Funds, etc.
Implications of Directive for Postal Sector Regulators Determine whether or not USO Funding is Necessary Select Alternative Funding Mechanism
Designate Universal Service Provider (USP) Ensure USO Funding is “Competitively Neutral” Ensure compatibility between USO mechanism and
Access Pricing regime
Experience of USO Funding under “full market opening” is limited
Small, “Open” Markets Sweden New Zealand
Combining Competition with Downstream Access in a large postal market UK 2006
Small Totally Open Markets
Sweden and New Zealand have been fully open for many years: No apparent need for explicit USO funding Entrants have acquired only small market
shares Use of Downstream Access relatively limited:
terms negotiated on a “commercial basis” With governmental oversight
UK 2006
Similarities between recently opened UK market and Sweden and New Zealand: Small entrant market share No formal USO support mechanism in place
Major Difference: More extensive use of Downstream Access
and Regulatory involvement in access rates
Is the provision of Universal Service a “Burden”? Sweden Post long maintained that Universal Service is a
competitive advantage, not a “burden” PostComm concluded that Royal Mail did not need to be
compensated for its USO: “… Royal Mail’s capability to deliver to every address in the UK
is a commercial advantage and not a burden.” Royal Mail does not share this view, arguing that there are
substantial costs involved in meeting its USO. Will Liberalization always lead to Universal Service being provided
without the need for any external funding mechanism?
Reasons not to extrapolate the experience to date Small market shares so far achieved by
competitors USP’s retains ability to cross-subsidize
Limited use of Downstream Access by competitors
Neither of these situations are likely to persist in larger postal markets.
Expect Regulators to encourage Downstream Access Attractive access prices can rapidly increase competitor market
shares, demonstrating the efficacy of liberalization “For licensed operators, access can provide a launch pad to build
up their contacts with customers, as well as the volumes necessary to consider developing an end-to-end (collection through to delivery) network. For mail users, the benefit is a greater choice of operators - and therefore more choice of products and services.” (PostComm web site)
But, this erodes the “commercial advantage” aspect of ubiquitous service All firms will have it, USP will bear the costs
Sooner or later, the USO will be a burden to the USP Postal Regulators will have to:
Measure the “cost/burden” of the USO select a funding mechanism other than internal cross-
subsidization All such mechanisms are difficult to administer in a way that
preserves competitive neutrality Postal Regulation will become like Telecom Regulation: a
bonanza for lawyers and consultants.
Two-sided Postal Markets?
Even postal economists have caught on to two-sided market analysis. Result of competition; as with telecom, regulated
monopoly postal markets can be readily analyzed without 2-sided theory.
Postal markets clearly have 2 sides: mailers and recipients both use the “postal platform.”
But, it is unclear whether the basic postal interaction satisfies the Rochet-Tirole test: i.e., does aggregate demand depend upon how the fees are split. Important issue if industry departs from Rowland Hill’s
“sender pays” principle. However, there is one important postal market that is
clearly two-sided: the market for PO Boxes.
Post Office Boxes
PO Boxes are facilities rented out to subscribers for the secure reception of mail. Usually on the premises of the incumbent postal provider. Mail Boxes, Etc. is a competitive provider of PO Box
services in US. The share of PO Box addresses varies greatly by country, but
accounts for a significant proportion of both businesses and individuals.
Delivery entrants in any region find a significant volume of mail addressed to PO Boxes. Delivering this mail may be their only contact with the
incumbent. Entrants offer to “do it themselves,” but incumbents reluctant
to “let them in.”
Access to PO Boxes
Even those (like me) skeptical of “essential facilities” arguments in postal networks agree that competitors should be granted to incumbent’s PO Box addresses.
But, again, how to price to ensure that there is no leveraging of “dominant position” in PO Box market to delivery market. Incumbent’s advocate ECPR
retains the incumbent’s full contribution, even though entrant does nearly all of the work!
Entrants (and Postal Regulators) favor cost-based rates which can be very low.
Notice that this comes up in the presence of delivery competition (bypass), so this is actually an interconnection issue.
suggests “Bill and Keep” as an option
PO Boxes as a 2-Sided Market
PO Box operator provides services to: Recipients of mail, who value secure, perhaps anonymous,
delivery Postal operators, who are obligated to deliver mail
addressed to PO Box subscribers. Postal operators “pass through” the demand of senders of mail,
who, since Rolland Hill, pay for the volumes sent. PO Box operator can charge:
Recipients a monthly fee m and/or a per piece charge r Postal operators an access fee a per piece delivered.
Heterogeneous mail recipients
Mail recipients are indexed by two parameters (s,t) distributed according to joint density f(s,t).
t[0,T] reflects preference for PO Box subscription. s[0,1] indexes the amount mail he receives. The mail volume sent to recipient of type s, v(p,s), also depends upon
the price paid by mailers: Mailers may pay different prices depending upon whether mail is
addressed to PO Boxes (pB) or street addresses (pS). Simplify analysis by assuming mailers have equal demand elasticities
for each type of recipient: v(p,s) = sv(p). Recipient net utility:
For PO Box subscribers UB = t + (-r)sv(pB) – m For non subscribers U0 = Ssv(pS)
What’s the appropriate benchmark for PO Box access policy?
If benchmark is unconstrained welfare max “Bill and Keep” looks pretty good, especially if 0.
If benchmark is outcome in competitive, disintegrated PO Box and postal markets Access price might even exceed ECPR!
Because of 2-sided market effects, cost based rules don’t seem adequate.
Additional models to explore: Integrated dominate firm with postal service
competitive fringe PO Box duopolists facing competitive postal sector Integrated duopoly
Research Resources
Postal Economics has become an active area of academic research over the past 15 years.
Research conferences include: Annual Postal and Delivery Economics Conference
organized by the Center for Research in Regulated Industries (CRRI) of Rutgers University.
Biannual IDEI/La Poster Conferences on Competition and Universal Service in the Postal Sector.
Research Resources - continued
Until recently, there have only been relatively few papers published on postal topics in economic journals.
Most of the previous academic literature can be found in: Journal of Regulatory Economics CRRI Conference Volumes (edited by Michael Crew
and Paul Kleindorfer). 2007 “Postal Issue” of the Review of Network
Economics IDEI working papers
The premier source for empirical work Invaluable web resource: the website of James I.
Campbell.
“Conclusions”
Postal Economics has emerged as an exciting subfield of Regulatory Economics Important policy problems Interesting theoretical issues
I encourage you to consider “entering” this “market.”