recent hydrological and climatological changes v. barros
TRANSCRIPT
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Recent hydrological and climatological changes
V. Barros
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FLOODSFLOODS
1. CHARACTERIZATION
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Flood of 2007 autumn15/02 to 15/05
-70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-40
-35
-30
-25
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Mosaic of imagens of peak flows of the Paraná River in 1998. In blue, the flooded areaand in light blue the permanent water area
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http://www.claris-eu.org/http://www.claris-eu.org/
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C
CONCLUSION
IN LARGE SCALE FLOODS (MONTH OR MORE )
Two types
GREAT RIVER FLOODSMEDIUM SCALE RIVER AND PLAIN FLOODS
º
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WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS
2FLOODS FROM MEDIUM SCALE
RIVERSAND
IN PLAINS
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WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS
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WP9 – SOIL MOISTUREWP9 – SOIL MOISTURE
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WP9 – SOIL MOISTUREWP9 – SOIL MOISTURE
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WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS
3. FLOODS FROM GREAT
RIVERS
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SAURRAL 2010, J. HYDROMETEOROLOGY
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ARE SOME HYDROLOGICAL MODELS CAPABLE OF SIMULATING PRESENT AND EVENTUALLY FUTURE
DISCHARGES AND THEIR EXTREMES?
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CONCLUSION
DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODELS ARE ABLE TO REPRODUCE MEAN ANNUAL AND MONTHLY DISCHARGES
With some error in the Paraguay River
YET NEED TO ADJUST THE MODEL AT DAILY SCALE
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SINCE DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL
MODELS PROVIDE DISCHARGE FLOWS AND NOT LEVELS
CAN LEVELS OF FLOOD BE DETERMINED BY STREAMFLOWS ?
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Maximum daily height of the month as a function of the mean monthly flow in Paso
de lo Libres
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Maximum daily height of the month in the Paraná River in Reconquista as a function of the mean monthly flow in
Corrientes 1990-1999. Only for months that are part of a sequence of 3 with flows over 30000 m3/s
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WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS
C
CONCLUSION
FLOOD INDICATORS CAN BE CALCULATEDFROM RIVER DISCHARGES
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THERE WAS A CHANGE?
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Monthly Discharges over average + 3 σ
Río Uruguay - Paso de los Libres
5 5 54
34
5
7
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
década '10 década '20 década '30 década '40 década '50 década '60 década '70 década '80 década '90
Nro
. de
caso
s
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Monthly Discharges over average + 3 σ
Río Paraná - Corrientes
21 1
01 1
0
12
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
década '10 década '20 década '30 década '40 década '50 década '60 década '70 década '80 década '90
Nro
. de
caso
s
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Climate change impact on floodingMaximum Flow - Gumbel
BERMEJO - Pozo Sarmiento
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1 10 100
Return Period (Years)
Flo
w (
m3 /s
)
COMPLETE SERIE
SUB-SERIE 1: 1940-41 a 73-74
SUB-SERIE 2: 1973-74 a 2005-06
PARANÁ - Corrientes
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1 10 100
Return Period (Years)
Flo
w (
m3 /s
)
COMPLETE SERIE
SUB-SERIE 1: 1904-05 a 75-76
SUB-SERIE 2: 1975-76 a 2005-06
PARAGUAY - Puerto Pilcomayo
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 10 100
Return Period (Years)
Flo
w (
m3 /s
)
COMPLETE SERIE
SUB-SERIE 1: 1910-11 a 77-78
SUB-SERIE 2: 1977-78 a 2005-06
URUGUAY - Paso de los Libres
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1 10 100Return Period (Years)
Flo
w (
m3 /s
)
COMPLETE SERIE
SUB-SERIE 1: 1909 a 1981
SUB-SERIE 2: 1981 a 2005
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WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS
C
CONCLUSION
THERE WAS A CHANGE
NEW RETURN CALCULATIONS SHOULD CONSIDERTHE NEW CONDITIONS
(at least until more certain scenarios will be developed)
RESULT (Stakeholders)
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ARE INCREASING STREAMFLOWS INFLUENCED BY
LAND USE CHANGE OR
BY CLIMATE OR BY BOTH?
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DOYLE Y BARROS, INT J . CLIMATOLOGY 2010
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CONSISTENT WITH SAURRAL ET AL 2008 GRL
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WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS
C
CONCLUSION 4RUN OFF CHANGE WAS CAUSED BY BOTH
IN THE NORTH BY LAND USE CHANGE
IN THE SOUTH BY CLIMATE
IN THE MIDDLE BY BOTH
NOW LOOKING ON THE EFFECT ON FLOODS
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Annual rainfall linear trends in mm/year. Period1960–1999. Shaded area, significant at the 95% level
CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOWS
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Annual precipitation linear trends in mm/year during
a) El Niño, b) La Niña and c) Neutral phases. Period
1960–1999
V. R. Barros, M. E. Doyle, I. A. Camilloni 2008
a) b)
c)
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Mean squared leading SLP factor loadings, warm semester
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.91961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
FL12
FL22
FL12+FL22
a
FL32
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- 70 - 6 5 - 6 0 - 55 - 50 - 4 5 - 40
Correlación Su m a P P P - FL 2R M ed io O C- M R
- 4 0
- 35
- 30
- 25
- 20
Linear correlation coefficients between rainfall and leading SLP factor loadings (FL2) for the warm semester: Significant areas at
a 95% level are shaded.