Reducing vulnerability to space weather

storms: Developing and implementing a preparedness strategy

Birkeland Space Weather Symposium

15 June 2017

Bill MurtaghProgram Coordinator

National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSpace Weather Prediction Center

Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation SubcommitteeNational Science and Technology Council

The Case for a national strategy

• Societal and economic impacts – reliance on

advanced technology

• Global impact

• Extreme space weather events

• Challenges to our understanding and forecasting of

space weather

The National Strategy

Overview

Societal and economic impacts

Societal and economic impacts - March 2012

7 March 2012: INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight.

Societal and economic impacts – Nov 2015

5

“Flights disappeared from radar screens in Swedish air traffic control towers

during the blackout, which lasted about an hour”

Transformer

damage

Failures of GPS

based positioning

Numerous

Polar flights

rerouted

NOTAM

Flight route restrictions

due to geomagnetic storm

impact on communicationsLoss of Japan’s

ADEOS II satellite

Numerous anomalies

on FedSat and other

Australian satellites

Solar cell damage on

ESA’s Smart-1 satellite

Oilfield services company reported

several cases of survey Instrument

Interference around world

C.R. Luigs drill

ship, loses GPS,

resorts to backup

systems

SatComm and HF

outages

Nuclear power

plants reduced

power due to

geomagnetic

storm

Widespread HF outage

over African continent

SatComm and HF

outages

Over 130 hours of HF communication blackout in Antarctic

Space Weather – Global Impacts October 2003

7

Extreme Space Weather

Carrington Event – Sep 1-2, 1859

Visible Aurora, Sep 2

The coronal mass ejection speed: ~2900 km/s or 10.5

million km/h

NASA SOHO

Extreme Space Weather 23 July 2012 – dodging the bullet!

Powerful solar flare

on 23 July, 2012…

9

Forecasting Sunspot

emergence and evolution

Active Region Development and Flare Forecasting

Oct 17, 2003

Very limited capability!!!

When and where a

sunspot cluster will

emerge cannot be

predicted

Our ability to forecast the

occurrence and size of a

flare is also very limited

Science challenges

GOES Proton FluxJanuary 20, 2005

X7 flare start: 20/0636 UT and

peaked at 20/0701 UT. The

intense >100 MeV radiation

storm peaked at 20:/0710 UT.

Several polar flights were routed

to the less optimum routes; many

altered flight altitudes. Some

polar routes were abandoned

altogether.

Science challenges

11

• The limited understanding of IMF Bz orientation at CME impact at Earth is perhaps the most vexing problem forecasters face

• It presents a serious limitation to modeling and consequently, mid to long range (1-3 day) forecasting.

Understanding and predicting Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bz)

Evolving Drivers for Space Weather Services

▪ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Reliability Standard

TPL-007-1: Transmission System Planned Performance for

Geomagnetic Storms (Sep 2016)

▪ Space weather in Department of Homeland Security Strategic

National Risk Assessment

▪ Senate bill 141 - Space Weather

Research and Forecasting Act, (Passed Senate May 2017)

▪ International – United Nations: World Meteorological Organization Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather; UN International Civil Aviation Organization; Office for Outer Space Affairs

S.141 - Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act

2 May 2017 – Passed in Senate unanimously

“—In order to continue coordination of executive branch efforts to

understand, prepare, coordinate, and plan for space weather, the National

Science and Technology Council shall establish an interagency working group

on space weather.

National Space Weather Strategy

Nov 2014 – Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force is established

Tasked to develop:

• National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS)

• Space Weather Action Plan

A cohesive all-of-government strategy was necessary to ensure the federal government was positioned to mitigate, respond to and recover from a major space weather storm

29 October 2015 – Release of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan

National Space Weather Strategy – StructureStrategy articulates six high-level goals

1. Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events

2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities

3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts

4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of

Impacts on Critical Infrastructure

5. Improve Space-Weather Services

through Advancing Understanding and

Forecasting

6. Increase International Cooperation

Executive Order 13744 of October 13, 2016 – Coordinating

Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events

“To ensure accountability for and coordination of

research, development, and implementation of

activities identified in this order and in the

Action Plan, the National Science and

Technology Council shall establish a Space

Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation

Subcommittee [SWORM]”

Executive Order 13744 – Coordinating Efforts

to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather

Events

19

R2O – Executive Order 13744

and Action Plan

“Federal and non-Federal

partners must ensure that

research is effectively

transitioned to operational

forecasting centers”

Modelling the electric field in support of

electric power grid

Action 5.5.5 U.S. Geological Survey will identify and

fill gaps in magnetotelluric (MT) surveys of the United

States, beginning with the northeastern United States

and concentrating on geographic regions judged to

have the highest induction hazards.

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

13-14 Mar 1989 Storm

23 satellites: More than 141 satellite-years

of data!

• GPS/MEO Data now available • LANL/GEO data to follow soon

•

EO Sec. 5(e) Within 120 days of the date of this order, the

DOD and DOC shall make historical data from the GPS

constellation and other U.S. Government satellites publicly

available to enhance model validation and improvements in

space weather forecasting and situational awareness.

DOD, DOE, DOC

The Way ForwardEnsuring effective implementation

• The NSTC SWORM Subcommittee will continue to oversee implementation of Action Plan and the Executive Order

• New SWORM.GOV to be introduced soon

• SWORM will continue to pursue international and public-private collaborations between Government, industry, and academia to enhance observing networks, conduct research, and develop prediction models

“Sunspots and Auroras: A

Message from the Sun”