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ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: DHANANJAY SINHA

India Equity Research | Automobiles

July 6, 2018

Sector Update

Automobiles Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

CV Dealer Conference: Ears to the ground

Tata Motors BUY

CMP Target Price

271 450

Ashok Leyland BUY

CMP Target Price

132 186

Eicher Motors ACCUMULATE

CMP Target Price

27,626 31,900

Mahindra & Mahindra BUY

CMP Target Price

925 960

This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation:

Raghunandhan N L [email protected] +91-022-66242428

Mumuksh Mandlesha [email protected] +91-022-66121334

In our MHCV dealer conference, we hosted dealers from the states of Uttar

Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat as well as Industry experts, to check the

demand pulse. MHCV demand outlook remains positive and volume is

expected to grow in double digits in FY19 for these dealers, due to

replacement demand, strong sales of construction tippers, partial overloading

restrictions and proliferation of the hub & spoke model. Freight availability

remains healthy from sectors such as Cement, Metals, E-commerce, FMCG

etc. Preference towards higher tonnage vehicles persists due to better cost

economics, partial overloading restrictions and consolidation of warehouses

by logistics providers and online sellers. Dealers and Industry experts

addressed two major concerns: 1) Overloading restrictions have not been

relaxed and still remain in place in Rajasthan and only partially eased in UP,

and 2) Government is not working on any formal proposal to increase truck

axle load by 20-25% for multi-axle vehicles. We remain positive on MHCV

upcycle and expect Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors to be the key

beneficiaries. Ashok Leyland remains one of our Top Picks, with a Target Price

of Rs186, valued at 12x FY20E EV/EBITDA and value of investment in Hinduja

Leyland Finance Ltd at Rs5/share.

Key takeaways from Tata Motors MHCV dealer – Rajasthan (West India)

We hosted a TTMT dealer from Rajasthan and he expects MHCV volume growth of 20-

25% in FY19 (vs 20% growth in FY18). He is one of the large dealers in Rajasthan, with

volume of ~200 units/month.

Rajasthan has been one of the more dominant states in terms of MHCV volume

performance, with 46% yoy growth in Q4FY18 v/s 19% yoy growth at all-India level. The

state is a large market for MHCVs due to the presence of Cement, Metals and Granite

industries.

Overloading restrictions have not been relaxed and still remain in place in Rajasthan.

This dealer expects strong growth of 20-25% in FY19, supported by replacement

demand, restrictions on overloading and strong sales of construction tippers. TTMT has

given a target of 16% volume growth for FY19.

In Q1FY19, volume increased to ~480 units v/s 200 units yoy due to a low base (led by

BS4 and GST transitions). Q1FY19 volume was affected by supply constraints for ARAI

certified trailers. This issue has been sorted out, as registration of non-ARAI certified

trailers has been allowed.

In Q2FY19, volume is expected to increase to ~900 units v/s 800 units yoy.

Replacement demand for higher tonnage vehicles remains strong due to better cost

economics, overloading restrictions and consolidation of warehouses by logistics

providers and online sellers. Rajasthan is witnessing a shift from 25T to 31T/37T

vehicles, and from 40T to 49T vehicles.

Transport operators are replacing BS3 vehicles with BS4 vehicles. Replacement

demand is expected to further strengthen in Q4FY20, before the transition to BS6

emission norms, as truck prices may increase by Rs100,000-150,000 post the transition.

Cement industry is the major demand driver in Rajasthan. Improving cement volume

and commencement of new plants (by Dalmia Cement and Emami) over the next 12-18

months are expected to support freight availability.

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Automobiles India Equity Research | Sector Update


ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: DHANANJAY SINHA July 6, 2018 | 2

Discounts are increasing for Tractor Trailers as June-August period is seasonally weak.

Discounts have increased from Rs300,000-400,000 in Q4FY18 to Rs400,000-500,000.

TTMT is gaining market share due to new launches, aggressive pricing/marketing efforts,

service/warranty initiatives etc. Major competitors are AL and M&M. Bharat Benz does not

have a major presence in Rajasthan.

Dealer inventory stands at ~30 days.

There is no shortage of drivers for MHCVs.

Fleet operators prefer trucks fitted with Bridgestone and Apollo Tyres.

Key takeaways from Ashok Leyland MHCV dealer – Uttar Pradesh (North India)

We hosted AL dealer from Uttar Pradesh and he expects MHCV volume growth of 15-20%

in FY19. He is one of the large MHCV dealers in the state, with volume of ~100 units/month.

Uttar Pradesh has been one of the stronger states in terms of MHCV volume performance,

with 46% yoy growth in Q4FY18 v/s 19% yoy growth at the all-India level.

Despite relaxation in overloading restrictions in few segments (such as natural sand,

crushed stone etc), this dealer expects positive growth of 10% for the industry in FY19,

owing to continuing growth in intermediate, long-haul and construction tipper segments.

The dealer expects to outpace underlying industry with a growth of 15-20%.

On a sequential basis, volume during June-August is expected to be lower due to

seasonality (relatively lower volume during monsoon season). This has led to an increase

in discounts by ~Rs50,000 for HCVs in comparison to Q4FY18.

Customer preference continues to move towards higher tonnage vehicles due to better cost

economics and partial overloading restrictions.

AL’s iEGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation) technology trucks have been well accepted by

customers. Fuel efficiency is broadly similar with TTMT’s trucks.

AL’s HCV trucks are priced ~5% lower compared to TTMT’s trucks. Mahindra & Mahindra’s

VECV trucks are priced lower than AL’s trucks.

AL has taken price hikes of ~2% in Q1FY19 to pass-on commodity inflation.


Key takeaways from Ashok Leyland dealer – Gujarat (West India)

We hosted AL dealer from Gujarat and he expects MHCV volume growth of 20-25% in

FY19. He is one of the large MHCV dealers in Gujarat, with sales of ~200 units/month.

Gujarat has been one of the weaker states in terms of the volume performance of MHCVs,

with 6% yoy growth in Q4FY18 v/s 19% yoy growth at the all-India level.

Post the weak performance in FY18, this dealer expects 20-25% growth in FY19. AL has

given a target of 18% volume growth for FY19.

FY19 volume growth is expected to be driven by improvement in replacement demand and

strong sales of construction tippers. Freight availability remains healthy from sectors such

as Cement, Metals, E-commerce, FMCG etc. Also, improvement in EXIM trade is driving

demand for Tractor Trailers.

Q1FY19 volume grew by 80% yoy, supported by a low base. The volume in the quarter

was the highest in the last 5 years. Q2FY19 volume growth is expected at 25-30% yoy.

AL’s iEGR technology trucks have been well accepted by customers and no major

problems have been reported in Gujarat.

AL has taken price hikes of ~2% in Q1FY19 to pass-on commodity inflation.

Discounts remain at broadly similar levels, at Rs400,000-500,000 for Tractor Trailers.

Any increase in truck axle load is expected to result in quicker wear-and-tear of the vehicles,

and large fleet operators may not resort to higher loading.

If government implements mandatory scrappage policy for over 20 year old vehicles, it

could notably aid demand from FY21 onwards.





Key takeaways from Industry Expert – Indian Foundation of Transport Research

and Training (IFTRT)

We hosted Mr. S P Singh, Senior Fellow & Coordinator, IFTRT and he believes that the

government is not working on any formal proposal to increase truck axle load by 20-25%

for heavy vehicles.

The expert believes that the government would not increase truck axle load by 20-25% for

multi axle vehicles. Increase in truck axle load may lead to deterioration of roads and higher

accidents. Assuming there is an increase in axle load, it would be done on retrospective

basis. The last increase in truck axle load happened in 1988.

Share of higher tonnage Tractor Trailers has been increasing in overall MHCV volume. This

trend has been fuelled by an increase in the contractual business (from mere 7-10% a

decade ago to 25-30%). Earlier contracts were for 6 months only, while now industrial users

are offering dedicated business for 3-4 years but include contractual conditions like

technical specifications, age of the vehicle, size and material of the container (aluminium,

steel or insulated etc). Also, the shift towards higher tonnage vehicles is supported by

greater cost efficiency and driver shortage.

Truck rentals remained firm in June’18 despite fall in diesel prices, as fleet utilization was

supported by arrival of fruits/vegetables and improvement in factory output. Also, freight

rates persisted at higher levels due to truckers’ strike.

Exhibit 1: Trend in Freight rates: Rates remain firm in June’18 despite fall in diesel prices

Round Trip from Delhi 15 ton pay load 2-May-18 2-Jun-18 chg (%) 1-Jul-18 chg (%) CY15 CY16 chg (%) CY17 chg (%)

Mumbai 87,200 92,000 5.5 92,000 0.0 76,967 84,921 10.3 81,900 -3.6

Nagpur 83,300 87,900 5.5 87,900 0.0 76,767 84,563 10.2 80,320 -5.0

Kandla 85,700 90,400 5.5 90,400 0.0 61,358 72,517 18.2 81,666 12.6

Kolkata 82,600 87,000 5.3 87,000 0.0 78,400 86,275 10.0 80,125 -7.1

Guwahati 143,500 151,400 5.5 151,400 0.0 131,950 140,763 6.7 140,758 0.0

Hyderabad 116,700 123,000 5.4 123,000 0.0 109,317 119,400 9.2 111,983 -6.2

Chennai 122,100 128,000 4.8 123,000 -3.9 122,308 131,925 7.9 119,016 -9.8

Bangalore 130,700 137,900 5.5 137,900 0.0 121,792 131,708 8.1 126,200 -4.2

Ranchi 111,000 116,000 4.5 116,000 0.0 79,600 87,350 9.7 86,550 -0.9

Raipur 79,500 84,000 5.7 84,000 0.0 76,208 87,263 14.5 77,000 -11.8

Bilaspur 83,500 88,100 5.5 88,100 0.0 75,950 83,467 9.9 80,666 -3.4

Source: IFTRT

With regards to E-way bill implementation, the expert believes that it is too early to gauge

the benefits in terms of shift of market share from unorganized to organized players,

reduction in tax evasions etc. Increase in intra-state E-way bill generation threshold from

Rs50,000 to Rs100,000 by Maharashtra and West Bengal dilutes the potency of the

regulation.

Implementation of scrappage policy would be difficult as majority of old trucks are plying in

rural areas. If the government implements the scrappage policy for over 20 year old

vehicles on a voluntary basis, the same may not support demand materially, as it does not

make economic sense for old truck owners to buy new trucks.

Number of trips per month has not increased in past one year despite removal of border

check-posts due to GST implementation. This trend indicates initial signs of over-capacity.

Improvement in private investments and faster GDP growth are essential for higher freight

availability and improvement in truck sales volume.




Exhibit 2: Domestic MHCV market share – Tata Motors has notably increased share in Q1FY19

Source: SIAM

Exhibit 3: State wise performance – Gujarat witnessing better growth; Uttar Pradesh growth tapering due to partial relaxation in overloading restrictions

MHCV Industry sales 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18

Uttar Pradesh 3,052 4,438 4,158 5,313 3,857 3,464 3,722 6,818 3,537 7,074 9,213 9,967

Rajasthan 3,760 4,992 6,484 7,554 5,289 4,615 4,787 6,726 3,480 7,988 7,999 9,835

Gujarat 3,312 4,907 4,320 5,984 4,674 3,818 4,418 5,391 2,091 3,574 4,878 5,688

Total 50,036 65,700 60,554 80,685 58,815 54,211 56,215 84,250 39,718 71,072 87,607 105,801

Growth (%)

Uttar Pradesh 4 41 17 23 26 -22 -10 28 -8 104 148 46

Rajasthan 27 37 40 44 41 -8 -26 -11 -34 73 67 46

Gujarat 13 25 13 48 41 -22 2 -10 -55 -6 10 6

Total 24 45 24 34 18 -17 -7 4 -32 31 56 26

Source: SIAM

Key takeaways from CV/PV Tyre dealer – Maharashtra (West India)

We hosted a multi-brand tyre dealer from Maharashtra and he expects double-digit growth

to persist in Truck & Bus Radial (TBR) and Passenger Vehicle (PCR) tyres over the next

few years. He is a large tyre retailer/distributor in Maharashtra with revenue of Rs400mn.

In FY18, the dealer witnessed strong demand for TBR tyres manufactured by domestic

players, with growth over 20%, driven by lower imports of Chinese tyres and radialization.

Imports of Chinese tyres have significantly declined (by over 50% from peak levels) since

demonetization and increase in duties.

Demand for TBR tyres remains robust due to increasing radialization. Radialization in the

replacement market is expected to increase from current ~50% to 70-80% over the medium

term. This would result in lower demand of Truck & Bus Bias (TBB) tyres.

Demand for PCR tyres is expected to grow in double digits. Realization is also expected to

increase due to shift towards larger tyres. For instance, 12-13” tyres cost Rs5,000-6,000,

while 13-14” tyres cost almost double at Rs13,000-14,000.

Domestic players have gained share from Chinese players since demonetization and

increase in duties (imposition of anti-dumping duty and import duty). The difference in

pricing has narrowed to 10-15% between domestic TBR tyres and China/Thailand TBR

tyres. Among the domestic players, Apollo Tyres and JK Tyres are the major gainers in

market share.

Apollo Tyres and JK Tyres are gaining market share from CEAT in the 2W tyre segment by

offering higher margins to CEAT’s distributors.

Domestic tyre companies may lose market share in the PV segment, as international

companies (such as Bridgestone, Continental, Pirelli, Michelin, Yokohama etc) have strong

product portfolio in large size tyres and their products have received a positive response

from customers. Also, international companies are offering higher credit period to dealers

compared to domestic companies.

Tyre retreading segment had been adversely impacted by increasing penetration of

Chinese tyres. Due to the reduction in market share of Chinese tyres, retreading segment

is poised for a recovery.

45 50 52 50 53 55 49 47 50 4658 52

37 34 34 33 31 31 37 35 34 3629

30

10 11 11 12 12 10 9 13 11 13 8 11

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18

Tata Motors Ashok Leyland VECV Mahindra Others




CV tyre prices have been increased by up to 3% in Q1FY19. In comparison, PV tyre

discounts have reduced.

Dealer inventory for CV tyres is limited. In comparison, dealer inventory for PV tyres stands

at 2 months.

Exhibit 4: Valuation Summary

Companies CMP (Rs) Target

(Rs) Mcap

(Rs.bn) Reco

EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%)

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E

Ashok Leyland 132 186 388 Buy 5.4 7.4 9.2 23.8 17.2 13.8 12.4 10.3 8.5 23.7 28.4 30.8 28.6 37.5 41.8

Atul Auto 389 590 9 Buy 20.6 25.7 29.7 19.1 15.3 13.2 11.3 9.1 8.0 22.9 24.0 23.5 33.7 35.2 34.6

Bajaj Auto 3,020 3,460 875 Accumulate 141.7 165.4 189.9 21.0 18.0 15.7 16.7 14.2 12.3 22.7 23.6 24.1 31.4 32.9 33.6

Eicher Motors 27,626 31,900 753 Accumulate 798.6 1033.6 1301.2 35.4 27.3 21.7 26.9 21.0 16.8 35.2 34.3 32.6 44.8 43.0 40.9

Escorts Ltd 880 1,110 108 Buy 44.1 55.6 62.9 19.9 15.8 14.0 11.6 9.3 7.9 16.6 17.3 16.9 23.6 25.0 24.5

Hero Motocorp 3,637 4,660 726 Buy 185.1 203.2 232.8 18.7 17.0 14.9 12.0 11.0 9.7 33.8 32.3 32.5 46.0 44.0 44.3

Mahindra & Mahindra 925 960 1150 Buy 33.7 40.9 47.6 26.7 22.0 18.9 15.4 13.0 11.4 14.7 15.7 16.2 19.5 21.2 22.1

Maruti Suzuki India 9,305 9,800 2811 Buy 255.7 331.2 391.5 36.1 27.8 23.6 23.0 19.1 16.6 19.8 22.3 22.8 28.5 31.4 32.2

Tata Motors 271 450 862 Buy 18.6 35.2 44.5 14.4 7.6 6.0 3.7 3.2 2.6 8.2 11.8 13.2 8.4 9.3 10.6

TVS Motor 577 670 274 Accumulate 13.9 20.3 26.7 41.7 28.7 21.8 25.5 17.6 13.8 25.1 29.9 31.5 23.8 31.1 35.1

Amara Raja Batteries 777 900 133 Buy 27.6 35.1 40.9 28.2 22.2 19.0 14.9 11.6 9.7 17.0 18.8 18.7 24.7 26.9 27.0

Apollo Tyres 262 310 150 Buy 12.7 19.2 26.0 20.0 13.2 9.7 10.3 7.7 5.9 8.5 10.8 13.3 8.9 11.3 14.0

Exide Industries 263 270 223 Accumulate 8.4 9.9 12.0 31.4 26.4 21.9 17.7 14.7 12.2 13.7 14.9 16.3 19.5 21.8 23.8

Motherson Sumi 298 375 627 Buy 8.4 11.5 15.0 35.1 25.7 19.7 13.5 10.4 8.1 19.5 22.8 25.6 17.3 20.9 25.0

Source: Company, Emkay Research




Ashok Leyland – Best proxy on MHCV upcycle

MHCV volume have recovered from Q3FY18 onwards on the back of higher sales of

construction tippers, partial restrictions on overloading, proliferation of hub & spoke model

(due to GST implementation) and gradual improvement in industrial production. AL has

registered strong growth in Q1FY19 and we expect volume momentum to sustain in

the subsequent quarters.

With an objective to insulate itself from the cyclicality of domestic MHCV business, the

company has increased focus on LCVs, Defense, Spares and Exports. Domestic LCV

volume is expected to grow at 13% CAGR over FY18-20E, supported by new

launches and ease in availability of finance.

AL has become the second largest CV exporter, with a presence in over 30 countries. We

expect 17% CAGR over FY18-20E, owing to a strong growth in Africa/Asia regions.

Defense revenue to grow at a strong pace over the medium term. Execution of existing

order book would result in cumulative revenue of Rs50bn over the next 5 years.

Products relate to transportation of goods and passengers.

We have built in revenue/earnings CAGR of 16%/31% over FY18-20E with ROE of

~30% and average free cash flow of ~Rs19bn.

We recommend BUY with TP of Rs186 based on 12x FY20E EV/EBITDA and value of

investment in Hinduja Leyland Finance Ltd (HLF) at Rs5/share.

Risks: Weak macro-economic environment, delay in execution of infrastructure projects,

heightened competition, adverse commodity/currency rates etc are the key risks to our call

and estimates.




Ashok Leyland — Key Financials (Standalone)

Income Statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Revenue 189,373 201,401 262,479 307,469 355,916

Expenditure 166,827 179,376 235,089 271,624 312,676

EBITDA 22,546 22,025 27,390 35,846 43,241

Depreciation 4,879 5,179 5,546 6,089 6,880

EBIT 17,667 16,846 21,844 29,757 36,361

Other Income 1,176 1,363 1,898 2,392 3,333

Interest expenses 2,476 1,554 1,312 624 442

PBT 16,367 16,655 22,429 31,524 39,252

Tax 4,369 1,070 6,681 9,773 12,168

Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0

Minority Int./Income from Assoc. 0 0 0 0 0

Reported Net Income 11,998 15,585 15,748 21,752 27,084

Adjusted PAT 11,998 15,585 15,748 21,752 27,084

Balance Sheet


Equity share capital 2,846 2,846 2,927 2,931 2,931

Reserves & surplus 51,226 58,415 68,721 78,692 91,107

Net worth 54,071 61,261 71,648 81,622 94,038

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0

Loan Funds 24,150 21,449 7,157 5,328 3,513

Net deferred tax liability 3,291 1,269 2,984 2,858 2,701

Total Liabilities 81,512 83,978 81,789 89,809 100,251

Net block 47,920 50,938 49,742 51,301 52,603

Investment 19,804 28,789 58,026 68,026 83,026

Current Assets 59,255 56,210 54,080 61,560 70,752

Cash & bank balance 15,931 9,120 10,044 3,584 3,641

Other Current Assets 9,209 7,602 12,134 14,214 16,454

Current liabilities & Provision 46,225 54,017 84,072 97,443 109,312

Net current assets 13,030 2,193 (29,992) (35,883) (38,561)

Misc. exp 0 0 0 0 0

Total Assets 81,512 83,978 81,789 89,809 100,251

Cash Flow


PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 7,089 11,938 20,531 29,132 35,919

Other Non-Cash items 0 0 0 0 0

Chg in working cap (1,795) 1,903 32,165 (4,352) (781)

Operating Cashflow 15,654 20,185 52,170 22,158 30,762

Capital expenditure (1,659) (3,660) (6,304) (10,000) (5,000)

Free Cash Flow 13,994 16,525 45,866 12,158 25,762

Investments 4,790 (11,784) (29,238) (10,000) (15,000)

Other Investing Cash Flow 487 676 0 0 0

Investing Cashflow 4,795 (13,406) (33,644) (17,608) (16,667)

Equity Capital Raised 0 0 81 4 0

Loans Taken / (Repaid) (7,886) (8,827) (14,292) (1,829) (1,815)

Dividend paid (incl tax) (1,541) (3,254) (8,561) (11,781) (14,669)

Other Financing Cash Flow 77 127 6,482 3,220 2,888

Financing Cashflow (12,030) (13,592) (17,602) (11,010) (14,038)

Net chg in cash 8,418 (6,812) 924 (6,460) 57

Opening cash position 7,513 15,931 9,120 10,044 3,584

Closing cash position 15,931 9,120 10,044 3,584 3,641





Key Ratios

Profitability (%) FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19E FY20E

EBITDA Margin 11.9 10.9 10.4 11.7 12.1

EBIT Margin 9.3 8.4 8.3 9.7 10.2

Effective Tax Rate 26.7 6.4 29.8 31.0 31.0

Net Margin 6.3 7.7 6.0 7.1 7.6

ROCE 22.0 22.0 28.6 37.5 41.8

ROE 22.8 27.0 23.7 28.4 30.8

RoIC 35.5 37.8 81.3 276.3 327.1

Per Share Data (Rs) FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19E FY20E

EPS 4.2 5.5 5.4 7.4 9.2

CEPS 5.9 7.3 7.3 9.5 11.6

BVPS 19.0 21.5 24.5 27.8 32.1

DPS 0.4 0.9 2.4 3.3 4.2

Valuations (x) FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19E FY20E

PER 31.4 24.2 24.6 17.8 14.3

P/CEPS 22.3 18.1 18.2 13.9 11.4

P/BV 7.0 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.1

EV / Sales 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.1

EV / EBITDA 17.1 17.3 12.9 10.6 8.8

Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.5 3.1

Gearing Ratio (x) FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Net Debt/ Equity 0.2 0.1 (0.5) (0.1) (0.1)

Net Debt/EBIDTA 0.4 0.2 (1.2) (0.2) (0.2)

Working Cap Cycle (days) (5.6) (12.6) (55.7) (46.9) (43.3)

Growth (%) FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Revenue 39.6 6.4 30.3 17.1 15.8

EBITDA 119.6 (2.3) 24.4 30.9 20.6

EBIT 189.5 (4.6) 29.7 36.2 22.2

PAT 413.0 29.9 1.0 38.1 24.5

Quarterly (Rs mn) Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18

Revenue 66,537 42,378 60,469 71,412 87,725

EBITDA 7,299 3,061 6,118 7,884 10,327

EBITDA Margin (%) 11.0 7.2 10.1 11.0 11.8

PAT 8,041 1,265 3,369 4,499 6,615

EPS (Rs) 2.8 0.4 1.2 1.5 2.3


Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18

Promoters 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3

FIIs 22.2 21.8 23.4 22.6 23.3

DIIs 9.5 9.2 10.5 11.4 11.1

Public and Others 17.1 17.8 14.8 14.7 14.4

Source: Capitaline




Tata Motors RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst

24-May-18 289 450 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL

6-Feb-18 375 460 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL

9-Nov-17 440 510 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL

4-Oct-17 424 470 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL

4-Sep-17 383 470 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL

10-Aug-17 380 470 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL

13-Jul-17 459 535 12m Buy Mihir Jhaveri

24-May-17 470 535 12m Buy Mihir Jhaveri

15-Feb-17 436 535 12m Buy Mihir Jhaveri



11-Jan-17 519 600 12m Buy Mihir Jhaveri

7-Dec-16 445 600 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo

15-Nov-16 457 530 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo

29-Aug-16 525 545 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo

31-May-16 460 520 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo

12-Feb-16 298 465 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo

9-Feb-16 311 505 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo



3-Sep-15 334 510 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo

10-Aug-15 386 505 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo


RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research

260

328

396

464

532

600

8-J

ul-

15

5-J

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-16

4-J

ul-

16

1-J

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-17

1-J

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17

29

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c-1

7

28

-Ju

n-1

8

BUY Hold SellAccumulate Reduce PriceTarget Price

Ashok Leyland RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst


23-Apr-18 159 186 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL





24-Jul-17 104 117 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL

13-Jul-17 106 90 12m Hold Bibhishan Jagtap

26-May-17 92 90 12m Hold Mihir Jhaveri

24-Apr-17 87 90 12m Hold Mihir Jhaveri

3-Feb-17 95 90 12m Hold Mihir Jhaveri

27-Jan-17 92 90 12m Hold Mihir Jhaveri

7-Dec-16 77 80 12m Hold Mihir Jhaveri

9-Nov-16 91 90 12m Hold Mihir Jhaveri

25-Jul-16 96 94 12m Hold Kaushal Maroo

27-May-16 107 97 12m Hold Kaushal Maroo

15-Feb-16 90 88 12m Hold Kaushal Maroo

9-Feb-16 88 84 12m Hold Kaushal Maroo

26-Nov-15 94 84 12m Hold Kaushal Maroo

6-Nov-15 88 84 12m Hold Kaushal Maroo

14-Aug-15 89 82 12m Hold Kaushal Maroo




70

96

122

148

174

200

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15

5-J

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-16

4-J

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16

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29

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28

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ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: DHANANJAY SINHA July 6, 2018| 10

Eicher Motors RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst

9-May-18 30,316 31,900 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL

7-Feb-18 28,010 30,200 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL

14-Nov-17 30,090 38,000 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL

4-Oct-17 30,885 34,000 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL

4-Sep-17 31,754 33,000 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL

9-Aug-17 31,489 33,000 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL

13-Jul-17 28,056 28,000 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

5-May-17 25,833 28,000 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

3-Feb-17 23,386 27,000 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo


7-Dec-16 23,382 26,000 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

29-Jul-16 22,461 22,500 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

6-May-16 20,216 21,200 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo



7-Dec-15 16,231 18,150 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

26-Nov-15 16,486 18,150 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

9-Nov-15 15,953 18,150 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

22-Jul-15 21,110 21,000 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo




15260

19808

24356

28904

33452

38000

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Mahindra & Mahindra RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst





4-Sep-17 664 820 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL


30-May-17 681 725 12m Accumulate Mihir Jhaveri

27-Mar-17 633 725 12m Accumulate Mihir Jhaveri

10-Feb-17 639 725 12m Accumulate Mihir Jhaveri

3-Feb-17 630 700 12m Accumulate Mihir Jhaveri

7-Dec-16 591 700 12m Accumulate Mihir Jhaveri

11-Nov-16 620 710 12m Accumulate Mihir Jhaveri

11-Aug-16 711 735 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

31-May-16 661 700 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

13-Apr-16 666 675 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

2-Mar-16 600 625 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

15-Feb-16 613 655 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

9-Feb-16 592 680 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

26-Nov-15 673 680 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

9-Nov-15 625 680 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo

10-Aug-15 680 700 12m Accumulate Kaushal Maroo




550

635

720

805

890

975

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Emkay Rating Distribution

BUY Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of over 25% within the next 12-18 months.

ACCUMULATE Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of over 10% within the next 12-18 months.

HOLD Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of upto 10% within the next 12-18 months.

REDUCE Expected total return (%) (Stock price depreciation) of upto (-) 10% within the next 12-18 months.

SELL The stock is believed to underperform the broad market indices or its related universe within the next 12-18 months.

Completed Date: 07 Jul 2018 02:09:48 (SGT) Dissemination Date: 07 Jul 2018 02:10:48 (SGT)

Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.

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refer to important disclosures at the end of this report...

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