reflections on the global generic pharmaceuticals market place dr. brian w tempest vidya...
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Reflections on the Global Generic Pharmaceuticals Market place
Dr. Brian W Tempest
www.briantempest.com
Vidya Pratishthan’s School of Biotechnology , Baramati, India
October 10th 2007
DR. BRIAN W. TEMPEST CSci, CChem, MRSC, BSc, PhD
Dr. Brian Tempest has worked in the pharma industry for the last 36 years. During this time he has worked for several pharma majors, including Glaxo & Searle,
around the world and joined Ranbaxy 12 years ago. During this period Ranbaxy has transformed from a small company focused on the India domestic market, to a top 10 global generic company. Dr. Tempest has lived in New Delhi, India for the
last 8 years, and has been President, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer and, until recently, the Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board. Dr.
Tempest retired from Ranbaxy in December 2007, when he reached 60. Dr. Tempest is one of a few westerners to have held a leadership position in an Indian
blue chip MNC, and has an unusual insight into India.Dr Tempest is also a Honorary Professor of the Management School at Lancaster
University, UK, and he sits on the Editorial Board of the Journal of Generic Medicines and on the Advisory Board of the India Fund held by JM Financial
Investment Managers Ltd in Mumbai.Dr. Tempest will be available from Hale & Tempest Co. Ltd from January 1st 2008
[email protected] / [email protected] +91-98100-91192 / Tel:+44 1753 864 616
Asia’s Share of the World GDP (at PPP in %)
Year 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001 China 17% 9% 5% 5% 12% India 12% 8% 4% 3% 5% Japan 2% 3% 3% 8% 7%
Rest of Asia 7% 5% 7% 9% 13% Total Asia 38% 25% 19% 25% 37%
Source – WEF
- was 59% in 1820 with India 16%, China 33%
Asia on the Rise
Source – FT
The Global Challenge from Asia
The Asian Race to Prosperity
Reflections
Market drivers Competition is rising Why Branded generics IP changes in USA & India M&A and Private Equity East-West Alliances
The Productivity Advantage
India a usa Pharma view USA India a usa Pharma view USA
1 chemist Better education x 1.3 1 chemist 1 chemist Better education x 1.3 1 chemist
70 hours/week Longer working time x 1.3 50 hours/week 70 hours/week Longer working time x 1.3 50 hours/week
$ 800 monthly Lower cost x 20 $ 12,000 monthly $ 800 monthly Lower cost x 20 $ 12,000 monthly
Sources: IPHMR Conferences, New Delhi August 2004
India’s Youthful Advantage
Percentage of Population aged 65 and older
6.9
5
8.3
14.714.8
21.5
29.2
12.3
18.7
21.4
13.2
22.7
China India Europe North America
2000 A
2025 E
2050 E
Median Age in Asia
India 24 31 38
China 30 39 44
Japan 41 50 53
2000 2025 2050
Sources: Rand Corporation
Years
The Education Advantage
The Education Advantage
Engineers/Science graduates p.a – India 0.7m, China 0.5m, EU 0.5m, USA 0.4m, Japan 0.3m
Japan’s Wealth Advantage
Canada2%
Rest of World10%
Japan27%
Germany4% Italy
4%
France5%
UK6%
USA37%
Netherlands2%
Spain1%
Switzerland1%Taiwan
1%
Source: The World Distribution of Household Wealth
Sources: Goldman Sachs 2007
Top 5 Global Pharmaceutical Markets 2020
Rank Country Size
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
USA
China
Japan
France
India
$ 475b
$ 125b
$ 61b
$ 51b
$ 43b
Sources: AXA Framlington
Company Expiry2010
Expiry2012
Expiry2011
Pfizer Aricept - $800m Lipitor - $12.1bn
Xalatan - $1.6bn
Viagra - $1.7bn
Detrol - $860m
Geodon - $1.1bn
Astra Zeneca Arimidex - $2.2bn Seroquel - $4.7bn Symbicort - $3.7bn
Sanofi-Aventis Taxotere - $2bn US Plavix - $3.8bn
Avapro - $2.1bn
Lovenox - $3.1bn
BMS US Plavix - $4.8bn
Avapro - $1.3bn
Abilify - $2.1bn
GSK Advair - $3.8bn Avandia - $2.5bn
Patent Expiry Dates
41%
38%
34%
30%
23%
% at Risk
Competition is Rising CPHI Attendees, Milan, 2nd – 4th Oct’07
1. China 467 – 33%
2. India 189 – 13%
3. Germany 96
4. Italy 80
5. USA 75
6. UK 55
7. France 55
8. ROW 387
Total 1404
As registered on July 25, 2007
Generics – API’s
USA DMF filings by India % Share of USA DMF filings
India China 2004 27% 9% 2005 37% 10% 2006 44% 14%
Q1’07 48% 17%
Source: US FDA / J P Morgan, 2 may 2007
Source: US FDA, Credit Suisse
India China 2004 187 48 2005 252 87 2006 357 128
Source: US FDA / J P Morgan, 6th August 2006
- One in every four ANDAs filed by Indian Companies in top USA FDA filers Source: KPMG
- No Chinese generic company has yet filed a USA FDA ANDAbut expected in 2008
Generics - ANDAs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2446
64
144
ANDA Filings in USA by Indian Companies
250
R&D Productivity is Falling
Global Pharmaceuticals Sales Trends
Global Pharmaceuticals Equity Trends
Speed of Clinical Trials in India
EU India
Patients 85 650 Sites 22 5 Time 36m 18m
Neck Cancer CT
Plan Actual
Patients 100 130 Sites 10 9 Time 5m 2.5m
Overactive bladder CT
300 patients, 30 sites$5.6m EU/USA vs $ 1.8m plus
30% faster at $800K per day savings
No. of USA investigators: 2001 - 2006 26,000 18,000
Sources: CT Outsourcing Conference, 24th July 2007, Mumbai
Electronic Data Capture in India
% Trials in EDC
2005 2007 25% 45%
Savings
Paper EDC
$2.8m $ 0.5m
2004 data
Sources: CT Outsourcing Conference, 24th July 2007, Mumbai
Accuracy
- 300 GSK Staff
- 2.2m Clinical Data sheets
- 450 Trials
- No data security issues
- Error rate <0.01 / 100k
Source: BCG report “Looking Eastward, Sept’2006”
Branded Generics
Promotion to doctors rather than pharmacists Consistent sales year on year No huge highs & lows for sales and profits Need field force to promote products Tend to be profitable Promoted in conventional manner Global generic brands Relevant to Central Europe, East Europe, Latam, Asia Ranbaxy 50% branded generics & 50% commodity
generics
Branded Generics - the Analyst’s view
“Branded Generics are the most profitable place to be in generics and there are a few markets with better branded characteristics than those of the Middle East and North Africa region”
Frances Cloud Nomura September 14 2007
Different Global Generic Market Sizes $bn
Region Sandoz
2006
IMS
2008USA 23 68
West Europe 14 19
East Europe 13 NA
Japan 3 3
Latam/Canada 10 3 (Canada only)
ROW 37 7
Total 100 100
Ranbaxy 2006 Sales by Geography
Europe & CIS25%
API8%
Americas33%
Asia27%
Africa7%
$ 1.34b
Ranbaxy H1 2007 Sales by Market
Emerging Markets
54%
Developed Markets
40%
Other6%
ROW Top 10 Generic Markets - $bn
IP – USA Pendulum
“A key USA Supreme Court ruling KSR VS Teleflex led to Pharmaceutical patents being more easily challenged on the grounds of obviousness, a ruling which immediately came into play when J&J & Merck had a US patent for Pepcid Complete (Famotodine) found to be obvious”.
Scrip, July 6th 2007, p3
The full beneficial impact of this ruling on the generic industry is yet to be seen eg Sanofi-Aventis Ramipril was invalidated as obvious by Lupin in September 2007.
Bilateral FTAs - USA Pendulum
Democrats now chair the Ways & Means Committee USTR legally required to work within TRIPS Up till now the USA has been incorporating TRIPS PLUS IP
protection into bilateral free trade agreements Corrections to bilateral trade agreements e.g. Peru, Columbia,
Panama FTAs now being made
TRIPS
Basic product patent
Data protection
PLUS TRIPS + Data exclusivity
+ New forms, isomers etc
+ New Indications
+ New Combinations
Should IP be the same across all Countries?
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
USA Thai China IndiaBrazil
USD
Sources: World Health Report 2005
Per Capita Expenditure on Healthcare 2002
Sources: 1. IMS Midas, March 20052. Earth Trend Data Tables 2005
82% of the world population accounts for only 12% of the Global pharmaceutical sales
Region Pharma Sales Population
North America
Europe
Japan
$255 b 47%
$158 b 30%
$59 b 11%
332 5%
725 11%
128 2%
Asia/Africa/Aus
Latam
88%
$41 b 8%
$20 b 4%
18%
4711 73%
558 9%
12% 82%
Worldwide $533 b 100% 6454 100%
Enforcement versus Evergreeningin Developing Countries
India IP 02/03 06//07 Filed 11466 28882 Examined 9538 14119 Granted 1379 7359
- 140 patent examiners 2007- 600 more planned- Attrition an issue- Weekly patent journal- IP Appellate Court
Source: Business Standard, 16th Aug’2007
• 1995 – 2005 FDA cleared 327 drugs
• 95% pre 1995 – before WTO deal
• 16 basic patent molecules possible
• However 9000 Pharma applications - for evergreen changes
- for new indications
Source: Gopa Kumar “Centre for Trade & Development, Delhi”
PCT Filings
PCT Files from Developing Countries 2006
1. Huawei - China2. LG - Korea3. Samsung - Korea4. LG Cem - Korea5. Elec Telecom – Korea6. 2TE – China7. STR – Singapore8. Ranbaxy – India9. CSIR – India10. NHN - Korea
Ranbaxy Patent Filings
24 32 49 86 146 170 185
M&A Building the Top Players in the Global Generic Market
PE Deals in Asia (ex-Japan) in H1 2007
Country No. of deals Sum Invested - $mChina 103 1489
India 90 1369
Hong Kong 5 186
Australia 26 71
Taiwan 6 33
S.Korea 30 29
Thailand 2 29
Singapore 4 16
New Zealand 9 3
Total 278 3233
Sources: Thomson Financial
% PE/VC Share of all Global M&A Deals
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5%6%
9%
16%17%
21%
Sources: Thomson One Banker, BCG Analysis
PE Investment in India is rising
Key Challenges to the Asian Scenario
Potential Challenge – Asian Flu*
*50% of world chickens bred in Asia
CO2 emission - % of World total in 1990-2000
USA 23%EU 25 17%China 14%Russia 7%Japan 5%India 4%
– source: WRI, EIA
Potential Challenge – Climate Change
Potential Challenge – Infrastructure
Source – Manmohan Singh
“Our greatest potential will be realised only if we can ensure that ourInfrastructure does not become a severe and critical handicap”
Corruption - Perception Index
Rank Country
1 Finland, Iceland, NZ5 Singapore11 Austria, Luxemburg, UK16 Germany20 Belgium, Chile, USA42 Mauritius, S.Korea51 South Africa, Tunisia70 Brazil, China, India, Mexico121 Philippines, Russia
163 Haiti
Sources: Transparency International 2006, selected countries only
Potential challenge – Oil prices
Source – Assocham
• A war against Iran could drive oil > $200 a barrel - ‘Times’ 22nd June 2006• India is expected to import 85% of crude oil by 2012 from 70% today
Source – BP
Potential Challenge – over the border
Potential Challenge - Currency Volatility
The Tempest Crystal Ball
•India will continue to be a Key Driver in the Global Generic Industry
•Competition is rising – Post TRIPs Indian companies will evolve
•Discovery companies will continue to be attracted to India for CT, EDC, MO. China will be perceived to be stronger in biology/ toxicology
•IP changes in US & India will slowly favor Generics
•Alliances between Western Biotech and Asians companies will expand. M&A PE deals will grow
•How to use Asia will become the key opportunity
- Assumes GDP growth of 7.3% for next 20 years with no profound shift in economic policy
Sources: McKinsey Quarterly, 3rd November 2007
The rise of the Indian Middle Class
Annual Income < Rs. 90k Rs. 90 k - Rs.2L > Rs. 2L
1985 A
1995 A
2005 E
2015 F
2025 F
702 m
742 m
598 m
447 m
314 m
45 m
167 m
454 m
550 m
514 m
8 m
19 m
55 m
281 m
600 m
“The Indian System looks ramshackleand improvised. But at its best it is capable of brilliance”
“When we say the Silicon Valley isbuilt on ICs we don’t mean integratedcircuits – we mean Indians & Chinese”
“The UK needs to wake up to whatIndia is becoming”
Source: DEMOS report – January 2007
Perceptions of Asia
Asia economic strength is returning to levels seen in the past
Many advantages for India with some challenges India is a global strategic asset for developed markets India is a rich location for R&D alliances and CT outsourcing
MNCs will dip in & out of India & China South East Asian economies will be driven by India & China
Japan will continue to represent a huge share of global wealth
“China & India represent the future of Asia and quite possibly the future for
the global economy” – Steve Roach, Morgan Stanley
Summary
Thank You