reframing climate change:
DESCRIPTION
Reframing Climate Change:. How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate. Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008. Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Kevin AndersonResearch director
Tyndall Centre University of Manchester
November 2008
Reframing Climate Change:
Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate
Talk outline
1) What is dangerous climate change?
2) Reframing the debate - cumulative emissions
3) Global greenhouse gas emission pathways
4) UK greenhouse gas emission pathways
What is dangerous climate change?
UK & EU define this as 2C
What are the ‘correct’ emission-reduction targets for
2C ? UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets
- UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050- EU 60%-80% reduction in CO2 e by 2050- Bali 50% global reduction in CO2e by 2050
But CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years
Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays & will be added to by tomorrows
So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading
the final % reduction in carbon has little
relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change
(e.g. 2C)
Put bluntly …
What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon & other
greenhouse gases (i.e. the carbon budget)
How do global temperatureslink to
global and national carbon budgets & from there to
emission-reduction pathways?
Temperature threshold
GHG concentration
Global cumulative emission budget
National cumulative emission budget
Apportionment regime
science/modelling
science/modelling
Global emission pathway
National emission pathway
2000-2008emissions
+short-termprojections
Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
s
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Plot recent emissions
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Em
issi
on
s alr
ead
y
rele
ase
d
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Em
issi
on
s alr
ead
y
rele
ase
d
We can project:- Short-term emissions to peak year/s
We know:- Cumulative emissions for 2°C
available carbon budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Em
issi
on
s alr
ead
y
rele
ase
d
Hence can draw emission pathways
carbon budget range
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issi
on
sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget
Em
issi
on
s alr
ead
y
rele
ase
d
How does this ‘scientifically-credible’ way
of thinking alter the challenge we face at:
1) the global level
2) the UK level
the global level
What are the latest CO2 emission trends?
What are implications of factoring in:
- land-use & forestry?
- non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions?
When will global CO2e emissions peak?
Tyndall’s
‘global emission scenarios (CO2e)’
~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs
~ 3.3% p.a. in last 5 years
What are the latest global CO2 emission trends?
What are the latest global CO2e emission trends?
~ 2.8% p.a. since 2000
~ Stern assumed 0.96%
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sions
(GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C
O2 E
mis
sions
(GtC
y-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61Observed
2000-2006 3.3%
20062005
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issi
ons
of C
O2 (
MtC
O2)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Emissions of CO2 from land-use change
- Characterised by high
uncertainty (principally
driven by deforestation)
- Represents 12%-25% of
total global greenhouse
gas emissions in 2000
- Two Tyndall scenarios
with different carbon-
stock levels remaining:
70% & 80%
- Optimistic compared
with Forest Resource
Assessment
Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issi
ons
of n
on-C
O2 g
hg (
GtC
O2e)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Early actionMid actionLate action
- Short-term EPA estimates
- Characterised by
considerable tail due to
emissions associated
with food production
- Represents ~20-23% of
total global greenhouse
gas emissions in 2000
- Three scenarios with
different peak dates
Bush - USA - 2025
Stern – Global aim - 2015
Tyndall - 2015, 2020, 2025
Suggested CO2e emissions peak?
2°C
greenhouse gas emission pathways
(450ppmv CO2e)
For 2°C, emissions between 2000-2100 (the carbon budget) are estimated to be
~ 1400 to 2200 GtCO2e
Total greenhouse gas emission pathways
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issi
ons
of g
reen
hous
e ga
ses
(GtC
O2e
)
0
20
40
60
80
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issi
ons
of g
reen
hous
e ga
ses
(GtC
O2e
)
0
20
40
60
80
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issi
ons
of g
reen
hous
e ga
ses
(GtC
O2e
)
0
20
40
60
80
Low DL
Low DH
Medium DL
Medium DH
High DL
High DH
2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak
(Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)
450ppmv cumulative emission scenarios peaking in 2020
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issio
ns o
f g
ree
nh
ou
se
ga
se
s (
GtC
O2e
)
0
20
40
60
80
Low ALow BMedium AMedium BHigh AHigh B
What does all this imply for a 450ppmvCO2e future?
Unprecedented annual
reductions (~10% pa globally, even for 2020 peak)
3°C & 4°C
greenhouse gas emission pathways
(550 & 650 ppmv CO2e)
For 3°C (550ppmv CO2e) with emissions peaking by 2020:
6% annual reductions in CO2e
9% annual reductions in CO2 from energy
For 4°C (650ppmv CO2e) with emissions peaking by 2020:
3% annual reductions in CO2e
3.5% annual reductions in CO2 from energy
Annual reductions of greater than 1% p.a. have only
“been associated with economic recession or upheaval”
Stern 2006
UK gas & French 40x nuclear ~1% p.a. reductions
(ex. aviation & shipping)
Collapse Soviet Union economy ~5% p.a. reductions
What are the precedents for such reductions?
Even assuming:
… an unprecedented step change in mitigating emissions
… stabilising at 650ppmv CO2e appears increasingly to be
the best we can expect
i.e. human-induced climate change of ~4°C or more
So where does this leave us?
We need to urgently reframe the climate change debate:
For mitigation
2°C should remain the driver of policy
For adaptation
4°C should become the driver of policy
Consequently …
the UK level(older work based on CO2 only - to be updated)
~ 17-23 GtCO2
between 2000-2050
the UK’s budget is
For a reasonable chance of 2°C to 3°C
1. What are the emissions between 2000 & today?
2. What emissions are we locked into in the
immediate future?
From this two questions arise
… emissions between 2000-2006
were
~ 4.5 billion tonnes of CO2… i.e. we’ve used ~¼ of our permitted
emissions for 50 years in around 6 years
Answer 1
Looking at this graphically …
Answer 2
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Carbon pathway
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Plot data from 2000 to 2006
Carbon pathway
Dip due to September 11th
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
What about the next 6 years …
with more aviation and shipping
Carbon pathway
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
This gives a notable rise in emissions between now & 2012
Carbon pathway
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Carbon pathway
But UK can emit
only
17 to 23 GtCO2
locking nation into unprecedented annual CO2 reductions for
~2 decades, beginning 2012-14
6% p.a.
9% p.a.
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
6% p.a.
9% p.a.
… and this equates, at best, to only a 50:50 chance of staying below 2°C
What does the pathway approach say
about UK emission policies ?
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mos
t em
ission
s ove
r
the
next
15 ye
ars
Policy implications
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n d
ioxi
de
em
issi
on
s (M
tCO 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
demand
supply&
demand
Policy implications
Does the demand-side have what’s
needed?
FuelProduction,Extraction &TransportPowerstationTransmission
ElectricityConsumptionLight
10 50 54 120 133
the example of domestic lighting
… ultimately ..
“at every level the greatest obstacle to
transforming the world is that we lack the
clarity and imagination to conceive that it
could be different.”Roberto Unger
1-person living in 3 bedroom housespatio heaters10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen3 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg flesh 3milesdriving children to school business tycoons with private jetsacademics flying to climate change conferencesmusicians flying to climate change concerts celebrating the excesses of celebrities‘right’ to fly & drive when & to wherever we want year-round strawberrieshen parties in Prague & birthdays in Barcelonadouble door refrigerators & home cinemasecond homes, 2 cars & 3 TVs & all with 9 billion people living on our planet!
EndReframing Climate Change:
Kevin Anderson & Alice BowsTyndall Centre
University of Manchester
How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate