regional housing update 10-2009

8/14/2019 Regional Housing Update 10-2009

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Regional Housing UpdateOctober 2009

Reports from District homebuilders indicated that that new home sales in the region turned

slightly positive in September on a year-over-year basis. August sales were even with a year

earlier. September improvements were driven largely by improvements among Florida con-

tacts. Weakness remained most pronounced among Georgia builders. Contacts also noted

that buyer traffic softened somewhat during August. Most continued to report that home

prices declined on a year-over-year basis while inventories continued to trend down. Overall

construction activity remained below the year earlier level and was little changed from Au-

gust. The outlook for sales improved while construction activity was expected to slow.

Homebuilder Survey

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09

Homebuilder Activity

SalesActivity vs. Year Ago

GA FL AL, LA, MS, TN

Key:+1 = Increase

0 = No Change

-1 = Dec rease

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09


Construction Activity vs. Year Ago


2/8


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09


Inventory of Unsold Homes vs. Year Ago


Key:

+1 = Increase

0 + No change

-1 = Decrease

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09


Selling Price vs. Year Ago


Key:

+1 = Increase

0 = No change

-1 = Decre ase


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-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09

Average of Survey

Responses


Material Cost vs. Year Ago

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09


Labor Cost vs. Year Ago



4/8


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09


Sales Activity over the Next 3 Months vs. Year Ago


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09


Construction Activity over the Next 3 Months vs. Year Ago

Key

+1 = Increase

0 = No Change

-1 = Decrease


5/8


District Builder Responses: September vs. a Year Ago

Responses in terms of percent, may not sum to 100 due to rounding

AL FL GA LA MS TN District

Activity compare to plan:Above Plan 0 27 0 0 0 0 10At Plan: 45 36 50 0 33 0 35

Below Plan: 55 36 50 100 67 100 55

Construction

Up significantly 0 23 0 0 0 17 8

Up slightly 24 31 13 50 33 0 24

No Change 29 15 13 25 33 17 22

Down slightly 24 23 25 25 0 50 25

Down significantly 24 8 50 0 33 17 22

Sales


Up slightly 17 54 0 50 50 17 27

No Change 39 8 25 25 0 17 24

Down slightly 22 15 13 0 0 0 14


Buyer Traffic


Up slightly 20 13 8 29 33 0 15

No Change 40 63 46 29 33 71 48

Down slightly 8 0 0 0 0 0 3


Selling Price

Up 0 0 13 0 0 17 4

No Change 33 17 13 50 50 0 23

Downs 67 83 75 50 50 83 72

Material Price

Up 12 0 0 0 0 0 4

No Change 47 33 63 75 33 17 44

Down 41 67 38 25 67 83 52

Inventory of Unsold Homes

Up 19 8 0 0 0 25 12

No Change 13 0 33 33 50 0 14

Down 69 92 67 67 50 75 74

Difficulty Filling Positions

More 0 8 0 0 0 0 3

No Change 36 25 57 0 0 20 32

Less 64 67 43 100 0 80 65

Labor Costs

Up 6% + 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Up 5-6% 0 0 14 0 0 0 2

Up 4-5% 0 0 0 0 50 0 2

Up 3-4% 0 0 14 0 0 0 2

Up 1-3% 6 0 14 0 0 0 4

No Change 31 42 43 0 50 20 33

Down 63 58 14 100 0 80 56


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Reports from District Realtors indicated that home sales in the region improved during Sep-

tember on a year-over-year basis, up slightly. In September, nearly half of respondents re-

ported that sales increased following reports in August, where nearly half reported sales de-

clined. Improved sales in September were strongest among Florida and Georgia contacts

with the majority reporting year-over-year gains. District buyer traffic softened somewhat in

September but half of the contacts reported that traffic levels remained above the year ear-

lier level. Listing inventories exceed the year earlier level in. The outlook for sales over the

next three months continued to weaken in September but remained slightly positive.

Residential Real Estate Survey

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09

District Home Sales

Curent Activity vs. Year Ago

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09

District Home Sales

Activity over the Next 3 Months vs. Year Ago

AL, LA, MS, TN Florida GA

Key:

+1 = Incre ase

0 = No change

-1 = Decre ase


7/8


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09

Inventory of Homes For Sale vs. Year Ago

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

06 07 08 09

District Home Sales

Selling Price vs. Year Ago

AL, LA, MS, TN FL GA


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District Realtor Responses: September vs. a Year Ago

Responses in terms of percent, may not sum to 100 due to rounding

AL FL GA LA MS TN District

Activity compare to plan:

Above Plan 8 13 20 0 0 11 11

At Plan: 31 50 20 0 0 44 35

Below Plan: 62 38 60 100 100 44 54

Total sales


Up slightly 11 53 57 100 25 41 35

No Change 22 5 0 0 25 18 15

Down slightly 30 0 0 0 0 24 16


Buyer Traffic


Up slightly 22 44 43 100 25 41 35

No Change 22 6 14 0 25 29 19

Down slightly 11 6 14 0 25 18 12


Condominium sales


Up slightly 17 14 0 0 100 6 14

No Change 50 21 0 0 0 65 40

Down slightly 17 29 40 0 0 12 19


Overall Sales Prices


Up slightly 15 0 14 0 0 6 8

No Change 19 6 14 0 0 18 14

Down slightly 52 28 29 100 100 47 46


Inventories of Unsold

Homes

Up 46 35 60 0 0 59 44

No Change 15 6 0 0 100 35 21

Down 38 59 40 100 0 6 34

What are your expectations for

sales over the next three

months compared with the

prior year level?


Up slightly 36 53 43 0 0 33 38

No Change 20 11 0 100 50 22 19

Down slightly 32 16 29 0 50 28 27


regional housing update 10-2009

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