regional material flow modelling and ghg inventorying

Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement (IfaS) 15.03.2010

© IfaS 2008 1

© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.

Regional Material Flow Modelling and

GHG Inventorying

Material Flow Management

Summer School Curitiba 2010

March 5-17, 2010, Curitiba

Universidade Positivo, Graduate Program

in Environmental Management

Angel Avadi


Contents

� Sustainable development (briefly!)

� MFA and LCA

� Regional Material Flow Modelling

� National and regional GHG Inventorying

T1:Region

P1:goods

raw mater ials

P2:fossi l fuels

P3:imported

energy

P4:waste

P5:emissions

P7:waste

water

P8:imported

water

P9:energy

P10:water

P11:exported energy

P1:goods

raw materials

Angel:

IT engineer � eBusiness

management � IMAT

IT = a tool for everything, including

Material Flow Management


Sustainable Development

� System change from “throughput” to “circular”

societies

� Decoupling energy from emissions and engage in

decarbonisation

� Bio-mimicry of ecosystems circular flows: no

waste!

“development that meets the needs of the present

without compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs”Brundtland Report (Our Common Future) ,1987, WCED


Scopes and Tools for Sustainable Development

� Firm level

� Eco-efficiency

� Cleaner Production (PIUS)

� SCP

� Environmental strategies

• Bio-cascading

• extended product life

• reduced material intensity

• management practices, etc.

� Environmental

Management Systems

• ISO14001

• EMAS

� Industrial collaboration

� Industrial Ecology

� Industrial Symbiosis

�EIPs, Eco-Industrial

Networks

� Regional SD

�Urban Symbiosis

�RMFM

• CE, ZE, MFA


Strategies for Regional Development

� Regional Sustainable

Development

� MFM: regional value-adding

strategies

� Pragmatically extends

Agenda 21

� Interdisciplinary approach

� Adaptation to specific

conditions

� Conventional regional

development strategies:

� poverty reduction,

� canned receipts for

development (e.g.

Washington Concensus)

� UN, OECD, IMF/WB,

etcD


Regional Material Flow Management

� Region is an ideal system to optimise towards

sustainability

� Build the Circular Economy (CE) via Zero

Emission (ZE) initiatives

� Engage in regional value-adding initiatives

� Aim for decentralized, regionally-bound activities

� Stimulate synergies among productive activities

(i.e. Industrial Symbiosis)

� Identify sources of emissions and reduce those

emissions

� Modelling regions to understand their material and

energy flows, and then optimise them!!!


© IfaS 2008 2


MFA and LCA: tools for RMFM

� MFA for systematically assessing flows and stocks

of materials within a system

� Static depiction, but may lead to id trends of

accumulation/depletion of stocks

� Key aspects: energy and socioeconomic factors

� Can be used for regional modelling (understanding of

regional dynamics)

� LCA for understanding impact of products within a

system

� Various impact categories

� May lead to region-impacting measures, such as

Industrial Symbiosis initiatives: escalation of positive

impacts!


Carbon Footprinting � for organisations

� CFP: CO2 (GHG) impact of an activity or

product along its whole life cycle

�a single impact category: GWP

� Organisations are interested in

�Calculate: ISO 14040 (LCA), ISO 14067

(CFP), PAS2050

�Reduce: energy efficiency, material efficiency

�Offset: emission-reducing projects

�COMMUNICATE!


Suggested concepts hierarchy


Objectives of Material Flow Analysis

� describe quantitatively the system, delineate it

and overcome its complexity: understand it!

� locate pollutants, potentials and unnecessary

cost factors

� deeply assess all input/output flows of energy

and materials in the system, including full cost

calculations

� identify improvement and innovation potentials

that may lead to a further local development

10

© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.11

MFA activities

� Start with available data (statistics)

� Visit main facilities

� Interview key people!

�Stakeholder management is a whole

science/craft by itself

� Visualise gathered data (MFA software)

�Visualisation is key for system change

Compare towards RMFM approach

(e.g. as practiced by IfaS)


Umberto 5.5 by IFU

• Industrial processes-oriented

• LCA-oriented modelling tool

• Designed to study Material Flow Networks

• Uses place/transition networks (Petri)

• Features valuation systems

• Produces mass balances, Life Cycle

Inventories and Sankey diagrams

• Ecoinvent-connected

• Modules library

• Umberto for Carbon Footprinting in BETA


© IfaS 2008 3


Umberto: industrial MFA

Could Umberto be used for regional material flow modelling???

T1: Malthouse

P1: raw materials

P2: Opp. supplies

P3: malt

P4:Waste

T2: Lorry transport

P5:emissions

P6:Brewing

malt

T3:brewery P7:BEEEER

P1: raw materials

P4:Waste

P8:preliminary

products


Why RMFMo?

� The region can be optimised

towards sustainable

development: RMFM

� Modelling to reduce complexity

via aggregation, abstraction

and idealisation

� Modelling a region to describe

key material and energy flows

� Various approaches to regional

modelling

� Technical-scientific

� Economic-organisational

� Economic-ecological

Once simplified, a system

can be understood and thus

improved

Which impact of economic,

social and environmental

dimensions of the region

Ideal: economic-

organisational-ecological


Critical aspects of RMFMo

� System boundaries

� Regional subsystems to be taken into account

� Integration of social aspects of sustainability, on

top of environmental and economic

� Eco-efficiency: dematerialisation of the economy

� Modesty (conservation): sustainable consumption

� Consistency (innovation): composition and effects

of materials, chosen/replaced

Fels, T. and Noell, C. (2001) Managing Sustainable Regional Material Flows: A Key Issue of Sustainable Development – Contemporary Concepts and Models


Umberto challenges to RMFMo

� Abstraction/aggregation

� Households, Industry and commerce, Public, AFOLU

� Energy generation, waste management, waste and

waste water management, transportation, regionally-

relevant materials

� Materials, energy, emissions

� Customisation

� Pre-defined levels

� Parameterisation and flow calculation

� Desirable

� Data issues

� Tiered approach from IPCC


V. Regional modelling with Umberto© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.

Conclusions on Umberto for RMFMo

� A region can certainly be modelled, but

� Interpretability of Umberto outputs is

questionable and sensitive

� Umberto does not seem suitable for GHG

Inventorying

� Current version is not very user-friendly (for

programming)

� Generated Sankey diagrams are poorly

customisable; thus

� Additional modelling and simulation tools/

environments should be explored towards an

integrated RMFM/GHG Inventorying solution

Vensim DSS

Threshold 21 Model

GoldSim


© IfaS 2008 4


Why GHG inventorying?

� Material and energy flows feature associated GHG

emissions

� GWP of anthropogenic GHG emissions perceived

as a main environmental impact category

� Inventorying is understanding!

� Inventorying is first step towards reducing/

offsetting


GHG Inventorying

� Mostly inspired by IPCC/UNFCCC

� National, regional, supply chain levels

� Various guidelines

� IPCC Guidelines

� UNDP/UN DESA Manual

� US EPA guidelines (AP-42)

� CORINAIR Guidebook

� Various frameworks and programmes

� European Energy Award

� Climate Alliance

� RAPIDC

40.000

tCO2eq


Key GHG Inventory design aspects

� Data selection

� Top-down

� Bottom-up

� Combination

� Boundary setting

� Territorial principle

� Causal principle

� “Problematic” categories

� Energy

� Transportation

Suggested approach:

IPCC’s tiers. Combination when

needed/possible (i.e. transportation)

Suggested approach:

IPCC principles � Territorial, except

for Energy (LCA/UNFCCC �

emission factors-based usage-related

emissions)

Suggested approach:

100% IPCC principles � emissions

calculation based upon sold fuel

ECO2Region - Balancing Methodology, by Ecospeed SA., Zurich, August 28, 2009

Kennedy et al (2009) Greenhouse Gas Emission Baselines for Global Cities and Metropolitan Regions


GHG Inventorying tools

Criteria �� Interface Data Calculations and

boundaries

Applica-

bility

Methodo-

logy

Price

schemeTools

ECO2Region,

by Ecospeed

Remote

application, web-based

National GHG

Inventories + regional data

Based upon IPCC

guidelines; Territorial + perhaps cause

principle for energy and transportation

Regions

can be flexibly

defined

Bottom-up/

top-down combination

Commerc

ial

GEMIS,

by Öko-Institut

Standalone

Windows application,

requires browser

Extensive DB which

includes more than 8000 processes in

over 20 countries

Algorithms probably

proprietary, simple and following mostly

linear functions.

Regions Bottom-up/


Free,

public domain

CO2

Grobbilanz,

by Climate

Alliance Austria

Remote

application,web-based

National GHG

Inventories (Germany, Austria)

+ regional data

? Regions Bottom-up/


Free,

public domain

IFEU

Treibhausgasbil

anz, by IFEU

Institute

Excel tool Municipal data +

GEMIS for emission factors

Klimaschutz in

Kommunen guidelines + IPCC

Municipalit

ies, regions

Bottom-up Project-

specific


Ideal features of a GHG inventorying tool

� applicable at different sizes and complexities of regions

(cities, towns, rural municipalities);

� based on easily accessible, available and maintained data,

such as official regional or national statistics;

� easy to use (usability), i.e. based on basic tools like web

browsers or spreadsheets;

� flexible as to accommodate estimations when specific

detailed figures are unavailable (i.e. regarding

transportation);

� a combination bottom-up with top-down approaches;

� coherent regarding boundaries setting (i.e. IPCC or LCA

approach to energy and transportation emissions); and

� based on trustable emission factors information sources.

eea (2008) BALANCE – globally, evaluate locally: Additional features for the European Energy Award®


Desired features (IfaS)

� Should allow to predict/forecast CO2 development

as a reaction to measuresD

� In this context it should show CO2 abatement efficiency

per invested monetary unit (e.g. €/tCO2)

� Should be user-friendly and suitable for scenario-

buildingD (as opposite to Umberto)

� Should be some kind of regional investment and

policy setting steering toolD

� Should be designed for evaluating various GHG

abatement potentials and predict changes ex ante

� IfaS CO2 balancing tool for regions


© IfaS 2008 5


IfaS: http://stoffstrom.org

IMAT: www.imat-master.de© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.

RMFM approach (IfaS)

1. Informal data gathering (internet and literature-based) and

preliminary analysis of the region

2. Kick-off meeting(s) with pre-defined stakeholders. Stakeholder

analysis is to be performed along the whole process. Settle a

MFM board of trustees, with power to make decisions.

3. Information, motivation, training of decision makers and key

actors in the system, towards the ideal (vision) of a Circular

Economy.

4. Formal data gathering and Material Flow Analysis (MFA) of the

system, previous definition of the system boundaries . MFA

should focus on the urban systems, main economic drivers, and

explore possibilities for interplay and circular material and energy

flows, as well as in the energetic and material utilisation of

“wastes”.


RMFM approach (IfaS)

4. (cont) Main goal: to understand and describe the system

(especially its real operation costs), for which IT and diagramming

tools are to be used (Sankey and block diagrams, modelling

tools, the Umberto MFA package, etc.) Network analysis should

identify the current interplay relations and potentials.

5. Define concrete optimisation potentials and craft sustainable

ideas towards it. Consider financing mechanisms

6. Craft a Master plan, stating the optimisation/development vision

for the system and both the strategy (programs) and tactics

(concrete projects, featuring financial aspects and project

management) to achieve it.

7. Founding an MFM firm (public or public-private partnership) to

deal with the projects implementation, involving the MFM-Team

and the MFM board.


Steps for CFP and offseting

� CFP or LCA to accurately determine the current carbon footprint

� Identification of hot-spots in terms of energy consumption and associated

CO2-emissions (energetic transparency)

� Where possible, changing to another electricity company to switch to

buying electricity from renewable sources: wind turbines, solar panels,

biomass-to-energy, hydroelectric plants

� Optimisation of energy efficiency and, thus, reduction of CO2-emissions

and reduction of other GHG emissions contributed from production

processes

� Identification of solutions to neutralise the CO2 emissions that cannot be

eliminated by energy efficiency measures. This last step includes carbon

offsetting; investment in projects that aim at the reducing CO2 emissions,

for instance LULUCF, carbon trading, etc.


Offseting ideas

� Renewable energy: wind, solar, hydro, biomass to energy

� Methane collection and combustion: flaring and biogas

� Energy efficiency: co-generation, energy-efficient buildings, fuel

efficiency/substitution, energy transparency, PIUS measures

� Destruction of industrial pollutants: suitable for CDM, but perhaps

leading to “evil” incentives

� LULUCF projects (Land use, land-use change and forestry)

� Purchase of carbon allowances from emissions trading schemes

� Links with emission trading schemes: after accredited by

UNFCCC, a project can be linked to EUETS, KP, voluntary

markets.

regional material flow modelling and ghg inventorying

Documents

development aim

regional sddecoupling

sustainable development

ecosystems circular

circular economy ce

system product

towardsdevelopment strategies

specificenergy flows