regional workshop on approaches to the implementation and monitoring of community-based ecosystem...

Regional Workshop on Approaches to the Implementation and monitoring of Community-based Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (CEAFM)

Noumea, New Caledonia, 29 November - 3 December 2010Funded by European Union

SciCOFish

Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal fisheries to climate change

Scientific support for the management of Coastal and Oceanic Fisheries in the Pacific Islands region (SciCOFish)

Funded by European Union(10th EDF)

Summary of possible climate change effects that may influence CEAFM activities in the Pacific region



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Sea level riseRelative sea-level = level of the sea surface relative to the land

Net relative sea level trend since 1994 is around 4 to 6 mm/year

Map of region showing net relative sea level trends (in mm/year) after subtracting the effects of the vertical movement of the platform and the inverse barometric pressure effect, utilising all

the data collected since the start of the project up to the end of December 2009 (Australia Bureau of Meteorology - Sea Level & Climate report - December 2009)

• Sea level will rise between 0.75 and 1.90 by 2100 (Vermeer & Rahmstorf 2009)

• Adding up to storm surges, swell, ENSO,...

• Increased sedimentation due to erosion of shorelines

• Degradation of coastal freshwater aquifers• Loss of mangrove area (12-50%)• Land loss



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Ocean acidification• Ocean acidification is

unavoidable with current CO2 emissions.

• Decrease of calcification productivity

• Less resilience to corals diseases and other perturbations

• Loss of coral biodiversity is to be expected

From Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification. Science Vol. 318. no. 5857.

2010

~2030

~2050

~2070



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Increase of SST and thermal stress

An extended period where sea surface temperature (SST) is 1°C greater than the maximum in monthly climatology causes thermal stress and bleaching

Frequency that annual degree heating month >1 (PCM model /A2 scenario) from Donner et al. 2005

Bleaching is expected to become more and more frequent in the future, with less time for recovery



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Changes in precipitationsA2 scenario

A lot of uncertainty remains on changes in precipitations over small islands.

Precipitations are also largely influenced by El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Changes in rainfall patterns will impact the sediment and nutrient inputs to the reef areas.

Region 2010-2039 2040-2039 2070-2099

North Pacific -6.3 to +9.1 -19.2 to +21.3 -2.7 to +25.8

South Pacific -3.9 to +3.4 -8.23 to +6.7 -14.0 to +14.6

Projected changes in precipitations over small islands by region (%) from 7 models and 4 scenarios (IPTC 2008)



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Impact on coastal fisheriesClimate change will likely cause habitat loss and possibly change in recruitment and larval dispersion.

These threats will add up to overfishing with a feedback effect :

Reef herbivorous species (grazers, bioeroders and scrapers) are essential to ensure coral resilience to destructive events (bleaching, cyclones,…) and preventing macroalgae from colonizing the area after the event.

Overfishing of these species increases the impact of climate change on habitat.

Protection of herbivorous species by communities and notification to technical services of major changes in habitat is essential



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Impact on oceanic fisheriesClimate change models predict that warm pool and primary production will move to the East. Tuna

distribution and abundance has been shown to be sensitive to ENSO and will change with displacement of the warm pool

Further studies are conducted by the SPC Oceanic Fisheries and Climate Change Project (OFCCP / GLOBEC)



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Building resilience to climate changeThe healthiest the environment, the better its chances to survive climate change stressors.

Conservation actions improve resilience to climate change :

•Reducing overfishing especially protecting herbivores

•Stopping harmful fishing practices (trampling, dynamiting, poisoning,...)

•Reducing pollution (nutrients, chemicals)

•Reducing sedimentation (deforestation, infrastructures, dredging)

•Protecting coral reefs and associated habitats (mangrove, seagrass)



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Monitoring climate change impactOceanographic environment

Remote sensing, in-situ loggers

Habitat supporting coastal fisheries

Benthic cover surveys through photoquadratsHabitat mapping (satellite imagery and ground truthing)Algal bloom (dinoflagellates) and water quality sampling

Fish and invertebrate resources

Underwater Visual Census, selected commercial familiesCommercial/edible invertebrates through a combination of manta tow, scuba and shallow water transects.

Fisheries

Market and landing surveysHousehold & census surveys



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Alternatives to reef fisheries

Nearshore FADs Inshore FADs Small pond aquaculture

regional workshop on approaches to the implementation and monitoring of community-based ecosystem...

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