Regulatory outlook for real-

world emissions

Vicente Franco, Peter Mock vicente@theicct.org

International Conference: Engine Optimisation for RDE

20-21 January 2015. NH Hotel Frankfurt-Mörfelden, Germany

Regulatory outlook for real-world emissions

Current challenges: results from Diesel

PC meta-study

Advanced systems and trends for

emission measurement

Technologies to meet 2020 targets

3

Real Driving

Emissions

Current challenges:

results from Diesel PC

meta-study

‘Translator’

script

Source

A

Source

B

Source

C

ICCT ICCT

ICCT ‘Calculator’

functions

MATLAB environment

DB

results

‘Renderer’

functions

IN: PEMS

datasheets

(Excel)

OUT: standard

PEMS charts/tables

Automatic

operation

Manual

operation

PEMS data analysis

Windowed emissions

• by CO2 window (assessment of

‘on-road compliance’)

Other

• Time and distance shares

• Transience metrics

Average distance-specific emissions (CO2,

CO, NOX and THC)

• by trip

• by vehicle (collection of trips)

• by operating conditions

• velocity

• acceleration*velocity

• gradient

• exhaust temperature

ICCT ICCT ICCT

‘Calculator’

functions DB

results

PEMS data analysis

Diesel PC meta-study

Real-world Emissions Report 2014: Modern Diesel Cars

• Multiple data sources

• 15 vehicles (3 Tier 2 Bin 5 + 12 Euro 6)

• 5 different sources

• 96 trips/ 140 hrs / 6,400 km of recorded data

• One multi-level analysis and reporting framework

• Raw emission factors (trip averages)

• Windowed emissions (‘on-road compliance’)

• Situation-specific emissions

• Instantaneous emissions

http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars

‘Raw’ average distance-specific emissions, by vehicle

Diesel PC meta-study: Overall results

http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars

Euro 6 conformity factor for NOX, all vehicles

Meta-study: Results for NOx

Mean CF = 7.1

Best vehicle: 1.0

Worst vehicle: 25

Euro 6 conformity factor for CO, all vehicles

Meta-study: Results for CO

Mean CF = 0.40

Real-world CO2 ratios, all vehicles

Meta-study: Results for CO2

Mean on-road/type-approval ratio = 1.43

Meta-study: Results in more detail

Situation-specific analysis: undemanding driving conditions

Meta-study: Results by driving condition

NOX emission factors [mg/km]

Meta-study: Results by driving condition

Diesel PC meta-study: Results

15

Real-world NOX:Euro 6 Diesel PCs are (on average)

worse than they should have been 15 years ago

16

Real Driving

Emissions

Advanced systems and

tends for emission

measurement

17

From laboratory to road: PEMS makes it possible to

accurately measure real-world emissions

Road tests with PEMS

Chassis dyno measurements

Photo credit: AVL / ERMES Group

Vehicle photos unrelated to the results shown

http://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us

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Trust is good – control is better!

Vehicle emissions certification/testing in the EU and US

Pre-production testing Certificate of Conformity

Manufacturer

Conformity tests about 10% of vehicles

EPA

vehicle design and build 0 km 100,000 km 50,000 km

Selective Enforcement Audit +

Confirmatory Road Load Testing

EPA

In-use verification tests on random sample

Manufacturer

In-use surveillance random / selected sample

EPA

1

2

3

4

5

Pre-production testing Certificate of Conformity

Manufacturer 1

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/bought-tiger-got-hello-kitty-how-fix-vehicle-fuel-economy-fraud-china

19

Upon the introduction of CO2 standards for passenger

cars in Europe, emission reduction rates increased

sharply

http://www.theicct.org/co2-emissions-new-passenger-cars-eu-car-manufacturers%E2%80%99-performance-2013

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The actual CO2 emissions from new cars

are about 30% higher than type-approval values

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/trend-that-cant-continue-europes-car-co2-emissions-gap

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This means that more than half of CO2 reductions

only happened on paper

http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update

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A chain is only

as strong...

...as its weakest

link

A solid CO2 regulation requires:

• A modern test procedure

• Independent retests

• On-road testing

• Transparency of test results

Fazit und These zur Diskussion

Photo credit: http://photoopia.com/view/6856-Schwaches+Glied+in+der+Kette.html

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/trend-that-cant-continue-europes-car-co2-emissions-gap

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/will-new-test-procedure-solve-problem-latest-developments-eu-vehicle-testing

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/art-cooking-popcorn-and-2013-eu-statistical-pocketbook

http://www.theicct.org/wltp-how-new-test-procedure-cars-will-affect-fuel-consumption-values-eu

http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update

http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars

http://www.theicct.org/wltp-november2013-update

More info:

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Real Driving

Emissions Technologies to meet

2020 targets

There are many different technologies available to reduce vehicles’ CO2 emissions

Technical efficiency, low-CO2 options

Petroleum efficiency

Gasoline

Diesel

Hybrid

Alternative fuels

Compressed natural gas

Biofuels

Electric-drive

Plug-in hybrid electric

Electric

Fuel cell electric

24 Electric

Turbo

Hybrid

Plug-in hybrid

Fuel cell

Stop-start

Advanced

materials and

design Low rolling

resistance tires

Aerodynamics

Efficient

accessories

Direct injection

Diesel

6+ Speed

Variable valve

controls

Low-friction

lubricants

HFO

1234yf

Ricardo vehicle simulations Efficiency, low CO2 technologies

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%

Ad

dit

ion

al

dir

ec

t m

an

ufa

ctu

rin

g c

osts

[E

UR

] re

lati

ve

to

20

10

ba

se

lin

e

95 g

/km

corresponding

fleet targets

90 g

/km

80 g

/km

70 g

/km

60 g

/km

Ford Focus 2010

159 g/km

2012

109 g/km -31%

2010

164 g/km

2012

79 g/km

(hybrid) -52%

Toyota Yaris

2020

CO2 / fuel consumption

relative to 2010 baseline

95 g/km in 2020:

Fuel cost savings: ≈350-450 € / year [BEUC, 2012]

Avoided oil imports: ≈160 million tons 2020-2030 [EC, 2012]

Reduction in CO2: ≈420 million tons 2020-2030 [EC, 2012]

Investment in technology: <1000 € / vehicle [ICCT, 2013]

26

US EPA / CARB / ICCT

Vehicle computer simulation

RICARDO (Detroit)

Tear-down cost assessment

FEV (Detroit)

ICCT

Vehicle computer simulation

RICARDO (Shoreham + Detroit)

Tear-down cost assessment

FEV (Aachen + Detroit)

Significantly improved method to assess technology potential and costs

Accelerating Technology Introduction

Source: 2013 EPA Fuel Economy Trends Report – Cars only

GDI Turbo 6 speed 7+ speed CVT Hybrid

2004 - 4% 5% 0.4% 2% 1%

2005 - 2% 6% 0.4% 3% 2%

2006 - 3% 12% 2% 3% 2%

2007 - 4% 16% 2% 10% 3%

2008 3% 4% 19% 3% 11% 3%

2009 4% 4% 19% 3% 11% 3%

2010 9% 4% 33% 3% 14% 5%

2011 18% 8% 54% 5% 12% 3%

2012 28% 10% 58% 6% 15% 5%

2013 38% 16% 61% 8% 17% 6%

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Standards drive technology upgrades… (example: high-selling passenger cars in the US, 2010 to 2014)

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3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

Fu

el e

co

no

my

(k

m/l)

Vehicle footprint (m2)

2014 4-cylinder sedans

2010 4-cylinder sedans

Fusion

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Accord

Camry

Mazda 6

Mazda 6

i-eLOOP

Altima

Thank you for your attention!

Vicente Franco, Peter Mock vicente@theicct.org

International Conference: Engine Optimisation for RDE

20-21 January 2015. NH Hotel Frankfurt-Mörfelden, Germany