renault: globalization and some doubts 1992-2007 freyssenet michel cnrs paris gerpisa 15th gerpisa...
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Renault:globalization and some doubts
1992-2007
Freyssenet Michel
CNRS Paris
GERPISA
15th GERPISA International Colloquium
Paris, 20-22 june 2007
Since three years, some difficulties
Fall of market share
Each ten years, a difficult phase
1983-1987
1993-1997
2004- ?
But the importance and the causes of the difficulties
were completely differentFreyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
The last fifteen years can be divided in three phases
1993-1997« The quality isn’t enough »
but the constraint of the costs reality
1998-2004The surprising success of innovating car models
The take over and the recovery of Nissan, Dacia and Samsungin a favourable context
2005-200?The failure of several car models
The compatibility problems of innovative strategy with the QCD requirements
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Résultats du Groupe Renault, 1976-2006: marge opérationnelle, résultat d'exploitation et résultat net par rapport au CA, part de la valeur ajoutée dépassant le point mort
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
1945194719491951195319551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005
année
pourcentage Marge/CA, RE/CA, RN/CA
-30,0
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
part de la valeur ajoutée dépassant le point mort
marge opérationnelle / CA (avec filiales financières) résultats d'exploitation / CA (sans filiales financières jusqu'en 1992)résultat net / CA (avec filiales financières) Part de la valeur ajoutée dépassant le point mort (VA-DC/DCx100)
Source: Rapports d'activité Renault. Élaboration: Michel Freyssenet 2007
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
1993-1997 « The quality isn’t enough »
The fall of the European market, after the first speculative bubble and the German reunification
The failure of the Renault-Volvo merger
The impossibility to pursue a « quality » strategy and to contract new alliances
The shift to an innovative strategy
A cautious internationalization and the privatization of Renault
But the necessity to reduce the costs strongly and immediately:
closure of Setubal, of Creil and of Vilvoorde plants
The pursuit of externalization and the reducing of supplies prices
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Production mondiale du Groupe Renault par type de véhicule, 1945-2006(véhicules particuliers, véhicules utilitaires légers, véhicules industriels)
VP
VUL
VI
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
19451947194919511953195519571959196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001 (b)
20032005
années
volume
Source: Rapports de gestion de Renault. Élaboration: Freyssenet M., 2006. Mise à jour 2007
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Les effectifs de Renault (maison mère) en six catégories professionnelles, 1955-2006
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
1 955 1 957 1 959 1 961 1 963 1 965 1 967 1 969 1 971 1 973 1 975 1 977 1 979 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1 991 1 993 1 995 1 997 1 999 2 001 2 003 2 005
nombre
année
ouvriers/APR
ATPMaîtrise
Employés
Techniciens
IC
Sources: Renault, Annuaires statistiques, Bilans du personnel, Bilans sociaux. Élaboration: Freyssenet M., 1998, 2007
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
1998-2004: a series of successes owing to favourable conditions cleverly used
(1) innovating models
The shattering of the second speculative bubble: the « Asian crisis » and the fall of the car sales in the emergent countries markets and in Japan
The inflating of the « new economy » bubble in North America and in Europe and the strong increase of the automobile demand (1997-2000)
The success of the conceptually innovating cars: Espace, Twingo, Scenic, Kangoo…
gives to Renault importants financial means used to jump at new opportunities…
but the requirements of the new profit strategy are not integrated in the socio-productive configuration of Renault
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
1998-2004: a series of successes owing to favourable conditions cleverly used
(2) The take over of Nissan
An unimaginable opportunity
The astonishing rapid recovery of Nissan : at least three internal and external favourable conditions
The acceleration of the Alliance (2002)- equal advantages and responsibilities- Fields of autonomy precisely defined- but Renault reinforces its capital control and its leadership on
the Alliance
The realized and forecasted synergies and economies
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
1998-2004: a series of successes owing to favourable conditions cleverly used
(3) The take over of Dacia and Samsung
The 5000 euros car project. Its originalityThe conditions of the purchase of Dacia: social and fiscal
conditionsLogan: the success before the launchThe insufficient forecasts of sales and the lack of capacity: bis
repetita
The first foreigner carmaker in South KoreaA New plant ready-to-useA top level R&D departmentbut an error about the perspectives of South Korean market
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
1998-2004: a series of successes owing to favourable conditions cleverly used (4) but that hided some structural problems
The reversing of the demand after the shattering
of the “new economy” bubble
The failure or the disappointing sales
of new cars models: Avantime, Vel Satis, Laguna II
The failure in Latin America and Russia
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Production mondiale de véhicules particuliers de Renault par modèle1945-2006
Dauphine
Juva
R8-R10
R25
Safrane"niches"
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
1945194719491951195319551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120042006
année
volume
Kangoo
Modus
Source: Rapports de gestion RenaultÉlaboration: Freyssenet M., 2006.
Logan
Vel Satis
4cvR4
R6
R5
Twingo
Clio
Frégate
R12 R9-R11
R19
Mégane
R16
R20
R18
R30
R21
Laguna
Espace
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
2005-200?: The compatibility problems of innovative strategy with the QCD requirements
The position of Renault: to face the early sales fall of some models, we must design and launch quickly models « that people buy ». Meanwhile we prefer to lose market share and to preserve our margin. It is also a good means to know the real preferences of the consumers.
A condition: to be able economically and socially to maintain some plants in under capacity
What does mean « what people buy » to design innovating cars models? Innovating car models require the liberty of the dimensions
The limits of the AllianceFreyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Évolution de la répartition en pourcentage des salariés travaillant dans les établissements de Renault selon leur statut, 1978-2006
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 9781 9791 9801 9811 9821 9831 9841 9851 9861 9871 9881 9891 9901 9911 9921 9931 9941 9951 9961 9971 9981 9992 0002 0012 0022 0032 0042 0052 006
année
pourcentage
CDI
CDD
Intérimaires
Prestataires(estimation)
Source: Bilan sociaux de Renault. Élaboration: Freyssenet M., 2006. Mise à jour 2007
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.
Conclusion
Some interesting decisions
1. abandon of the specialisation of the plants, developing the lines flexibility
2. standardisation of components interfaces
Can Renault invent a new profit strategy?
Freyssenet M., Presentation, Renault 1992-2007, Globalization and some doubts, Proceedings of Fifteenth GERPISA International Colloquium, "What have we learned about the dynamics of automobile firms and systems over the past 15 years ?", Paris, 20-22 june 2007. Édition numérique : freyssenet.com, 2007, 1,5 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.