renewable energy in australia - focus on wind · renewable energy in australia - focus on wind ....
TRANSCRIPT
Renewable Energy in
Australia - Focus on Wind
Asociación Empresarial
Eólica (AEE)
Madrid, 21 November 2013
Do you know Australia?
Australia key facts
Economy US$1.5 Trillion GDP o 4th largest in Asia Pacific region
o 80% services economy
Population 22.9 million
Culture Multicultural, multiracial,
multilingual
Aboriginal heritage
Geography World’s 6th largest country o 7,682,300 sq km
o coastline 36,735 km long
Climate Temperate – but varied
Political
Environment
Democratic / Westminster system
Federation formed in 1901
Three tiers of government
o Commonwealth
o 6 States and 2 Territories
o Local government
Australia – means opportunities
Australia is a globally significant economy –
US$1.5 trillion GDP
Australia – means opportunities
Australia GDP – the highest expected growth among
major advanced economy
Australia – means opportunities
A diverse economy
Australia – means opportunities
Australia’s States in the Asian perspective
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450446
323
281
236
91
32 24 18
333
267
230
119
AU
D '
000,0
00,0
00
Australian State GDP: Asia-Pacific Regional Comparison
Opportunities in Australia -
Renewable Energy
Wind
October 2013
• Exceptional Renewable Resources
• A Supportive Policy Landscape
• Timing and an Evolving Market
• Current and Emerging Opportunities
Renewable Energy Opportunities in Australia
Today
Australia – means opportunities
Extensive Energy Resources
Australia Unlimited
An abundance of
energy resources
1
1
Australia’s wind resources
12
Source: Geoscience Australia
Australia – means opportunities
Australia’s massive solar resource
13 Australia – means opportunities
Source: Geoscience Australia
Emission Reduction Policies
• Renewable Energy Target (RET, 2001 and 2009)
• Carbon Price (2012)
• Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA, 2012)
• Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC, 2013)
• National Strategy on Energy Efficiency (NSEE, 2009)
• National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Act (NGERS)
• Energy Efficiency Opportunities Act (EEO)
• State & Territory Initiatives
Current Emission Reduction Policies,
Institutions and Programmes
Australia – means opportunities
• Energy White Paper 2012: Minimum 20% renewable
energy electricity generation by 2020
• New Government’s Direct Action Plan to be enacted by
July 2014
• New white paper to be drafted
– Consultation process underway 6 November to 12 December
2013
• Implementing legislation to be prepared by 5 February
2014
Australia's Energy Policy going forward
Australia – means opportunities
Source: DRET, December 2012, http://www.energywhitepaper.ret.gov.au and http://www.environment.gov.au/emissions-
reduction-fund/consultation.html
Australian Government commitment to address
Climate Change 2007-2013
2007 2009 2013 2012 2010 2012 2012
See: http://www.ret.gov.au/energy/Documents/ewp/2012/Energy_%20White_Paper_2012.pdf
Australian Government policy process in addressing
Climate Change – Status November 2013
2012 2013 2014 2013 2013 2014 2014 2013
Pledge to
reduce
emissions
to 5% below
2000 levels
by 2020
See http://www.environment.gov.au/emissions-reduction-fund/consultation.html
Key policies
Technology Key policy support
Wind • Large Scale Renewable Energy Target
Large Scale Solar • Large Scale Renewable Energy Target
• Australian Renewable Energy Agency
• Clean Energy Finance Corporation
• Some state grant schemes
Other emerging large scale
technology (geothermal,
marine, hybrid)
• Large Scale Renewable Energy Target
• Australian Renewable Energy Agency
• Clean Energy Finance Corporation
Domestic PV • Small Scale Renewable Energy Target
• State based Feed-in-Tariffs
Other domestic
technologies
• Small Scale Renewable Energy Target
• Some state Feed-in-Tariffs
• Some state grant schemes
Australia – means opportunities
• 2001 - Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET) introduced by Liberal Government.
• Original objective to deliver 9500 GWh of additional renewable energy generation by 2010 (2% increase).
• 2009 – RET was expanded to 20% by 2020 by Labor Government, with support of both the Coalition and Greens.
• 2010 – scheme was split into 41,000GWh Large scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) and Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) with multiplier.
• 2012 review confirmed scheme was effective and properly designed. Key points of debate:
• Cost and uncertainty of SRES
• Target in light of falling 2020 demand forecast
See http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/
Renewable Energy Target status
20 Australia – means opportunities
• Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) established 1 July 2012
• Capital grants, venture capital funding along with strategic research partnerships
• Critical role in supporting technologies across the development chain from early stage R&D to large-scale commercial deployment
• Focus on marine, geothermal, solar PV, solar thermal, storage, hybridisation
• New programs so far focusing on off-grid (Regional Australia Renewables Initiative) and knowledge sharing
Australian Renewable Energy Agency
21 Australia – means opportunities See www.arena.gov.au
• State governments play a key role in planning policy, network regulation and retail pricing (in most
jurisdictions). For example
– ACT: http://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/energy_policy (scroll down page)
– NSW: http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/climatechange/renewableenergy.htm
– NT: http://www.powerwater.com.au/sustainability_and_environment/renewable_energy
– SA: http://www.renewablessa.sa.gov.au/
– TAS: http://www.development.tas.gov.au/economic/economic_development_plan/achieving_our_vision/sector_development/sector_strategies/renewable_energy
– VIC: http://www.energyandresources.vic.gov.au/energy
– WA: http://www.finance.wa.gov.au/cms/content.aspx?id=15108&linkidentifier=id&itemid=15108
• Premium feed-in tariffs for domestic technology deployment (primarily PV) have now been removed.
• Wind planning policies are key factor impacting wind deployment
• Variety of other programs, including:
• Royalties for Regions (WA)
• Rebates (previously for Solar Hot Water)
• Deployment support (NSW Precincts)
• Direct deployment (ACT Solar Auction)
State based programs
22 Australia – means opportunities
The Right Timing –
AN EVOLVING MARKET
• Significant market reform creating opportunities: • Full retail competition
• Network access, augmentations and pricing
• Asset privatization
• Smart grid and consumer engagement
• Asset divestment, refinancing and M&A activity
• Vertical re-integration continues
Energy Market is Evolving
Australia – means opportunities
Key Energy Market Trends
25
Aspect Trend Driver
Wholesale gas prices LNG export
Technology costs Global forces and strong $AU
Carbon costs Carbon price legislated
Wholesale prices Falling demand and renewable energy
Peak energy prices Interval meters and peak pricing
Retail energy prices Network expenditure and overall cost of
business
Australia – means opportunities
Electricity and gas retail price index (real) –
Australian capital cities
Source: http://www.ret.gov.au/Department/Documents/clean-energy-future/ELECTRICITY-PRICES-
FACTSHEET.pdf
Electricity Price breakdown
Australia – means opportunities
Source: http://www.ret.gov.au/Department/Documents/clean-energy-future/ELECTRICITY-PRICES-FACTSHEET.pdf
See Also http://www.aemo.com.au/
Energy Demand is Falling
Australia – means opportunities
Source: AEMO, 2013.
NSW annual electricity consumption forecasts and actual data (GWh)
Retail Electricity Prices are Rising
Australia – means opportunities
Source: Clean Energy Council and ROAM/2012
Estimated Annual Renewable Electricity Generation
Australia – means opportunities
Source: Clean Energy Council 2013, Clean Energy Council Renewable Energy Database, BREE 2012, REC Registry, AEMO, IMO, IES
11.5GW in 2012
Up from 8.3 GW in 2001
Annual Contribution to Renewable Energy Generation
Australia – means opportunities
Source: Clean Energy Council 2013, Clean Energy Council Renewable Energy Database, BREE 2012, REC Registry, AEMO, IMO, IES
Investment in Renewable Energy Generation Since 2011
Australia – means opportunities
Source: Clean Energy Council 2013, Clean Energy Council Renewable Energy Database, BREE 2012, REC Registry, AEMO, IMO, IES
Key developments
• 420MW Macarthur Wind Farm in
Victoria, April 2013, A$1 billion
• 1GW portfolio investment by
Denham Capital, May 2013
A$78.8million
• 700MW plan Hydro Tasmania
and Shenhua Group strategic
cooperation, Tasmania, A$1.6
billion*
• 600MW Repower Australia
(Suzlon), South Australia,
A$1.3billion
• 189MW Mt Gellibrand, Acciona
Energy, Victoria, A$696 million
• 196MW Ryan Corner and
Hawkesdale, Union Fenosa,
Victoria, A$ 500million
• 200MW, multiple states, Ratch
Australia A$1.2 billion
• 106MW, Taralga Wind Farm Pty
Ltd, (60% Santander), New
South Wales, A$ 240million*
*The only cross-border renewables deals in the
region in H2 2012 (PWC, February 2013)
Australia – means opportunities
Advanced Electricity Generation Projects,
October 2013
Australia – means opportunities
Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, Electricity Generation Major Projects 2013, October 2013
www.bree.gov.au/publications/megp.html
Publicly Announced Feasibility Stage Committed Stage Completed Stage Total
Energy Source No. capacity
MW Value A$m
No. capacity
MW Value A$m
No. capacity
MW Value
$m No.
capacity MW
Value $m
No. capacity
MW Value A$m
Non-renewable 9 2 530 2 640 29 18 764 19 865 4 588 1 217 1 240 600 43 22 122 24 322 Oil 0 0 0 1 150 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 150 110
Gas 9 2 530 2 640 20 11 928 9 755 4 588 1 217 0 0 0 33 15 046 13 612
Brown coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brown coal gasification 0 0 0 1 600 1 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 600 1 100
Black coal 0 0 0 5 2 086 5 100 0 0 0 1 240 600 6 2 326 5 700
To be determined 0 0 0 2 4 000 3 800 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 000 3 800
Renewable 28 3 716 5 227 71 14 365 22 959 18 2 101 4 350 3 643 1 600 120 20 825 34 136
Wind 23 3 086 4 697 55 12 359 20 889 14 1 867 3 775 3 643 1 600 95 17 955 30 961
Hydro 0 0 0 1 37 na 1 na na 0 0 0 2 37 na
Solar 3 294 530 10 646 1 420 3 194 555 0 0 0 16 1 134 2 505
Biomass 0 0 0 1 83 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 83 500
Geothermal 0 0 0 3 790 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 790 150
Ocean 2 336 Na 1 450 na 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 786 na
Total 37 6 246 7 867 100 33 129 42 824 22 2 689 5 567 4 883 2 200 163 42 947 58 458 Share of RE 76% 59% 66% 71% 43% 54% 82% 78% 78% 75% 73% 73% 74% 48% 58%
Share of Wind 62% 49% 60% 51% 37% 49% 64% 69% 68% 75% 73% 73% 58% 42% 53%
Australia’s Electricity Sector is Transforming –
the numbers
Australia – means opportunities
Source: BREE, Electricity Generation Major Projects List, October 2013 www.bree.gov.au/publications/megp.html, note some
missing data on project costs, see source data.
Snapshot: Wind project pipeline of approximately
17.2 GW and A$31.5billion in investment
Australia – means opportunities
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
NSW
QLD
SA
TAS
VIC
WA
Estimated Estimated New Capacity MW, Status August 2013
Announced 3112MW
Feasibility 11595 MW
Committed 1867 MW
Completed 643 MW
Source: BREE, Electricity Generation Major Projects 2013, October 2013
www.bree.gov.au/publications/megp.html,
Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity in Australia
(2000-2012)
Source: CEC, 2013
• Australian Electricity Market Operator
– Wind Integration Studies Report (Sep 2013) – http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/~/media/Files/Electricity/Planning/Reports/Integrating%20Renewable%20Energy%20-
%20Wind%20Integration%20Studies%20Report%202013.pdf.ashx
– Wind Turbine Plant Capabilities Report (June 2013) – http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/~/media/Files/Other/planning/Wind_Turbine_Plant_Capabilities_Report.ashx
Integrating Wind Energy
Australia – means opportunities
Expected renewable energy mix by 2020
39
The majority of the 2020 target was forecast to be met by wind (9507
MW) and solar (511MW) with other technologies playing a minor role.
Source: CEC, SKM MMA – Benefit of the Renewable Energy Target to Australia’s Energy Markets and Economy, 2012
Large scale renewable energy demand
40
Source: AGL, 2013
Cumulative Installed Capacity of Solar PV
Source: CEC, 2013, SunWiz Consulting 2013.
• Free certificate trading on spot and future values
Renewable Energy Certificate Market
Australia – means opportunities
Certificate price on 18 NOV 2013
• Half of National Electricity Market capacity (~20GW) is project
financed
• Power Purchase Agreements are therefore critically important.
• ~A$20 billion pipeline of projects to deliver 2020 RET
• Local equity constraints
• Utility scale projects are seeking equity/debt
• Domestic and commercial scale sector is innovating to
overcome capital challenges
Financing drivers
43
• Rising cost of energy and growing carbon constraints
driving energy efficiency and transition to renewable
energy.
• Clean energy market is maturing as it drives toward 20%
Renewable Energy Target by 2020.
• Large deployment pipeline presenting opportunities for
international partners
• While upcoming federal election presents some policy
uncertainty, key clean energy policies have broad and
enduring political support.
Timing
44 Australia – means opportunities
• Wind industry developing quickly • Move to vertically integrated utilities
• International technology manufacturers developing own projects
• Demand for debt/equity
• Large Scale Solar • Emerging quickly
• International developers and technology suppliers very active
• Emerging technologies – geothermal, marine and storage • Technology innovation remains key
• Demonstration projects underpinned by government support
• Energy Efficiency • Strong economic driver
• Service and technology innovation focus
Industry status
Australia – means opportunities
• There is no single point of market entry
• Project initiation – small local speculators
• Project development – local developers seeking national and international equity partners and technology partners
• Construction – internationally competitive market
• Commissioning – seeking national and international equity/debt/JV
• O&M – diverse landscape, generally led by local utilities
Market entry opportunities
Australia – means opportunities
How the Australian Trade
Commission can Assist
Investors
Austrade’s Investment Network
Australia – means opportunities
The Australian Trade Commission, in cooperation with State and Territory governments, provides free and confidential assistance
– National coordination of Australian government investment services
– Information on the Australian business and regulatory environment
– Market intelligence and investment opportunities
– Identification of suitable investment locations and partners in Australia
– Advice on Australian government programs and approval processes
How we assist investors
• Carbon Expo, 2-4 December 2013, Melbourne,
www.carbonexpo.com.au/
• Clean Energy Week , 22-25 July 2014, Sydney,
www.cleanenergyweek.com.au
• AllEnergy, 15-16 October 2014, Melbourne,
www.all-energy.com.au/
• Annual Wind Farm Conference, 2014
www.windfarmdesign.com.au/
• Annual Wind Energy Conference, 2014
http://www.informa.com.au/conferences/energy-utilities
Some Upcoming Industry Events
Australia – means opportunities
Thank you for your attention
Carolyn ABELA REBISCOUL
Clean Energy Leader and Investment
Manager, Western Europe
Australian Trade Commission
(Austrade)
4 rue Jean Rey, 75724 Paris Cedex
15, France
T +33 (0)1 56 77 12 35
www.austrade.gov.au
Australia – means opportunities Australia – means opportunities