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Provision Review for Government Secondary Schools in Southern Geelong & Armstrong Creek

Published by the Resources Strategy DivisionDepartment of Education and TrainingMelbourne, October 2016

© State of Victoria (Department of Education and Training) 2016

The copyright in this document is owned by the State of Victoria (Department of Education and Training), or in the case of some materials, by third parties (third party materials). No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968, the National Education Access Licence for Schools (NEALS) (see below) or with permission.

An educational institution situated in Australia which is not conducted for profit, or a body responsible for administering such an institution may copy and communicate the materials, other than third party materials, for the educational purposes of the institution.

Authorised by the Department of Education and Training,2 Treasury Place, East Melbourne, Victoria.

ContentsFigures and tables 6

1. Introduction 3

Project scope 3

2. Background 4

Planning for new schools across Victoria 4

3. Study area 5

Local context 5

4. Needs assessment 11

Population forecasts 11

Government secondary school demand forecasts 13

Key findings 15

5. Other factors 16

Student enrolment trends 16

2016-17 State Budget Funding 17

Key findings 18

6. Conclusions 19

Future additional secondary school provision 19

Options analysis for consideration 19

Next steps 20

Appendix 1: Demand analysis of existing schools 21

Oberon High School 21

Belmont High School 22

Grovedale College 23

Appendix 2 – Data sets 24

Appendix 3 – Detailed options analysis 28

Option A – Southern Geelong 28

ContentsOption A – Armstrong Creek 29

Option A – Total study area 30

Option B – Southern Geelong 31

Option B – Armstrong Creek 32

Option B – Total study area 33

Appendix 3 – Review of feedback 34

Revision to Options 35

Figures and tablesFigure 1: Study area showing discrete geographical areas and government secondary schools....................................................7Figure 2: Context map of study area showing government schools on the Surf Coast.............................................................9Figure 3: Armstrong Creek development area and proposed schools........................................................................................11Figure 4: Population forecasts for southern Geelong and Armstrong Creek.........................................................................12Figure 5: Map of population forecasts for southern Geelong and Armstrong Creek.........................................................................13Figure 6: Demand assessment – southern Geelong..................14Figure 7: Demand assessment – Armstrong Creek....................15Figure 8: Demand assessment – overall study area...................16

Table 1: Analysis of residing area for students enrolled at Belmont High School, Oberon High School and Grovedale College........................................................................................17Table 2: Student address data analysis......................................24Table 3: Capacity, enrolment and forecast demand data by school..........................................................................................25Table 4: Historic capital works investment by school..................26

1. Introduction

Project scopeThe Department of Education and Training (DET) plans for new government school infrastructure through regular monitoring of residential growth, demographic change and enrolment trends across Victoria. The key aim of the Department’s school provision process is to ensure that each government school can accommodate every government school student who currently lives, and is expected to live, in its local neighbourhood.

The Department works with planning authorities, such as the Metropolitan Planning Authority and/or the relevant local council, to identify sites for future schools to meet the needs of growing communities.

Given current patterns of growth in southern Geelong, along with projected growth in the Armstrong Creek residential development, the Department is assessing the viability of new secondary schools in the area. This is a timely opportunity to consider the provision for current and future student demand.

The project will involve the establishment of a stakeholder consultation group to review the assumptions and findings. This group will also review the development, assessment, proposed timing and costings of options to meet future school provision requirements in Stage Two.

The project will focus on the suburbs of Wandana Heights, Highton, Belmont, Waurn Ponds, Marshall and Charlemont. It will also look at the broader area across Armstrong Creek, Mount Duneed and as far south as Torquay. The study area has been split into two discrete geographical areas: the existing suburbs in southern Geelong and the future development area of Armstrong Creek to the immediate south (as shown in Figures 1-3).The Department has worked with specialist demographers to develop demand forecasts for school-aged people across Victoria and appropriate catchments for each Victorian school. This report will look at demand, capacity and enrolment data for each government secondary school in the proposed area to identify options for future provision requirements. This includes examining the impact specifically associated with the planned residential development in Armstrong Creek. Existing schools included in the review are Belmont High School, Oberon High School and Grovedale College.

Department of Education and Training 3

2. Background

Planning for new schools across VictoriaThis section outlines the Department’s school provision planning in Victoria. This provides an important context for understanding how schools are planned and how funding is prioritised.

Approach to school provision planningDET uses the following key objectives when planning schools across Victoria:

ensure there is sufficient capacity to accommodate all government school students who currently live or are expected to live in a given area

carefully balance considerations such as accessibility, viability and financial sustainability

deliver schools that meet the diverse needs of local communities.

For many years the number of school-aged children in Victoria remained relatively stable. However, population forecasts project significant growth in this demographic across the State of Victoria. This growth is likely to put pressure on existing infrastructure and increase demand for new infrastructure.

The Department measures long-term demand for primary and secondary schools by measuring and forecasting the current and future school aged population and the government market-share in the area immediately surrounding a school. This supports the Department’s policy to provide local access to education.

The Department manages peaks in enrolment numbers through the provision of relocatable classrooms. If increased capacity is required in the long term, in particular as a result of growing local demand for school provision, the development of additional permanent facilities is considered.

Managing Existing InfrastructureIn addition to managing the high rate of growth demand for school provision, the Department has the ongoing challenge of managing the existing infrastructure. The Victorian Auditor-General identified a considerable surplus of 38 per cent of building space in the education portfolio, across Victoria. Unfortunately, much of this surplus infrastructure is not in the areas that are currently experiencing, or expected to experience, growth in demand for school infrastructure.

Hence, the long-term need and viability of an additional school capacity is of high importance when considering the development of a new school in a particular area. Additional investment must demonstrate that will be needed now and in the future, and thus provide an enduring benefit to Victorians.

Prioritisation of projectsDeveloping a new school is a significant investment and involves a number of stages to ensure that public money is invested in the right place at the right time. These stages include demographic assessment, site suitability assessment, land acquisition, design and finally construction.

The Department recognises that the prioritisation of need across Victoria must be balanced and fair. Each year the Department undertakes analysis and evaluation of proposed new school projects and school upgrades. These are then prioritised for consideration in the annual budget process for school capital investments across the State of Victoria.


3. Study areaThe study area as illustrated in Figure 1 is defined by the areas of southern Geelong between the Barwon River and Mount Dunned Road. Within this are two distinct smaller areas: established suburbs of southern Geelong (which includes the existing secondary schools of Belmont High School, Oberon High School and Grovedale College), and the adjacent Armstrong Creek development area (which is detailed in Figure 1.

It is also important to identify broader commuting patterns to understand the impact that a new school or the relocation of a school may have on the area. For this reason, the report considers the commuting patterns to schools outside of this study area to identify the areas in the Surf Coast that families currently travel from to access schools in the study area. In particular the report will look at the impact of the new Surf Coast Secondary College.

Local contextArmstrong Creek is a planned southern extension of the metropolitan area of Geelong. The Department of Education and Training and the City of Greater Geelong have identified future sites for eight government primary schools and three government secondary schools within Armstrong Creek to meet the expected future population of up to 65,000 people.

With this projection in mind, the Armstrong Creek Education Precinct is currently being developed. This comprises the integrated Armstrong Creek Primary School and Armstrong Creek Special School, which will be delivered through the new Schools Public Private Partnership Project, opening in January 2018. The Department has planned for one of the proposed secondary schools to be built on the thirteen-hectare site in the future, adjacent to the primary and special schools.

In contrast there is capacity in the established schools of southern Geelong, with some experiencing enrolment decline. Historically these schools enrolled a number of students from the Surf Coast, in particular Oberon High School which has public transport connections along the Great Ocean Road. However, since the opening of Surf Coast Secondary College in 2012 enrolments have declined and this may decline further as additional schools open to the south and reduce the local catchment of the existing schools in southern Geelong.

This study will build on the Department’s existing processes and help ensure that potential enrolment growth is effectively planned for and managed in southern Geelong, with options to consider when additional provision is required.


Figure 1: Study area showing discrete geographical areas and government secondary schools


Torquay and Surf Coast Secondary College

Winchelsea

Barwon Heads & Ocean GroveAnglesea & Lorne

Figure 2: Context map of study area showing government schools on the Surf Coast (2016 Student Address data available in Sepetmber 2016)


Oberon High enrolments from Surf Coast SC catchment:

2011:261

2015: 55

Oberon High enrolments from Lorne-Aireys Inlet P–12 catchment:

2011:57

2015: 28

Figure 3: Armstrong Creek development area and proposed schools


Armstrong Creek Education Precinct

- Armstrong Creek Special School

- Armstrong Creek Primary School

- Armstrong Creek Proposed 7–12

4. Needs assessment

Population forecasts The population forecasts for the study area (see Figure 4 and Figure 5) shows two areas in completely different states of growth. The population of southern Geelong is forecast to stabilise from 2026 as the population matures and the number of school-aged people begins to decline. Armstrong Creek, however, is a new suburb, which is expected to see significant growth over the next 20+ years, in particular in the school-aged cohorts.

Figure 4: Population forecasts for southern Geelong and Armstrong Creek

Figure 5: Map of population forecasts for southern Geelong and Armstrong Creek


Total populationThe total population of the southern Geelong study area is forecast to increase from approximately 50,000 people in 2011 to an estimated maximum of 60,000 people by 2026. It is forecast to remain constant until 2036.

In contrast, Armstrong Creek is forecast to increase from approximately 1,100 people in 2011 to an estimated 30,000 people by 2036. The City of Greater Geelong estimates that eventually Armstrong Creek will provide housing for between 55,000 and 65,000 people. (Refer to https://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/armstrongcreek

Secondary school-aged population (12 to 17 years of age)The secondary school-aged population of the southern Geelong study area is forecast to increase from approximately 4,000 people in 2011 to an estimated maximum of 4,400 by 2026, and it is forecast to slightly decrease to approximately 4,200 by 2036.

In contrast, the secondary school-aged population of Armstrong Creek is forecast to increase from approximately 100 people in 2011 to an estimated maximum of 3,200 by 2036.

Primary school-aged population (5 to 11 years of age)The primary school-aged population of the southern Geelong study area is forecast to increase from approximately 4,350 people in 2011 to an estimated maximum of 5,000 by 2026, and it is forecast to slightly decrease to approximately 4,400 by 2036.

In contrast, the primary school-aged population of Armstrong Creek is forecast to increase from approximately 100 people in 2011 to an estimated maximum of 3,850 by 2036.

Preschool-age population (0 to 4 years of age)The preschool-age population of the southern Geelong study area is forecast to increase from approximately 3,100 people in 2011 to an estimated maximum of 3,400 by 2021, and it is forecast to decrease to approximately 2,900 by 2036.

In contrast, the preschool-age population of Armstrong Creek is forecast to increase from approximately 50 people in 2011 to an estimated maximum of 2,600 by 2036.


https://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/armstrongcreek/armstrong/article/item/8cfafd49ea31e3f.aspx)

Government secondary school demand forecastsSouthern Geelong Figure 6 shows that the demand for secondary school provision in the southern Geelong study area (taking into account a local average market share of 55.5 per cent) is forecast to peak at approximately 2,500 in 2026. This is below the enrolment trend line, which has dropped from approximately 3,100 in 2011 to 2,750 in 2016, but is forecast to increase back to 3,000 by 2021. This indicates that there are more students enrolled in schools in the study area than live in the study area.

The combined capacity of the government secondary schools in southern Geelong is estimated at 3,450 places (total), of which 3,050 places are in permanent facilities. This means that by 2026 the forecast minimum surplus in capacity will be approximately 600 places, the equivalent of half a secondary school.

Figure 6: Demand assessment – southern Geelong

There is currently capacity to meet projected enrolments in southern Geelong, but if the enrolments were to fall to the forecast demand (based on the current local market share of 55.5 per cent), there would be surplus capacity of approximately 750 places by 2036 (the equivalent of 0.7 standard secondary schools).


Armstrong Creek Figure 7 shows that the demand for secondary school provision in the Armstrong Creek study area (taking into account a local average market share of 55.5 per cent) is forecast to grow to 923 students by 2026 and to 1,767 by 2036. Using the Department’s current standard secondary-school capacity of 1,100, it is expected that Armstrong Creek will require one secondary school between 2021 and 2026 and another secondary school in approximately 2036.

Figure 7: Demand assessment – Armstrong Creek


Overall study areaFigure 8 shows that the demand for secondary school provision in the overall area of southern Geelong and Armstrong Creek area (taking into account a local average market share of 55.5 per cent) is forecast to grow from approximately 2,250 government secondary school students in 2011 to 3,000 by 2021, and 4,000 in 2036.

Figure 8: Demand assessment – overall study area

In 2016 across the study area there is expected to be a local demand for approximately 2,450 government secondary school places, and the schools in the study area are expected to have approximately 2,750 enrolments. Given the current estimated capacity of 3050 places, in 2016 there is expected to be a surplus of 600 places (the equivalent of 0.55 standard schools). However, enrolments from outside the study area will account for another 300 places, reducing the surplus capacity to 0.26 schools.

Key findingsBetween 2026 and 2036, the forecast decline in the school-aged population in southern Geelong will not necessitate a reduction in the number of schools. However, it does indicate a significant shift in growth as Armstrong Creek becomes the more populous area (at least in terms of the school-aged population) sometime after 2036.

By 2026 the forecast government secondary school demand in the study area is expected to be approximately 350 places greater than the current capacity of the existing schools (the equivalent of 0.33 new secondary schools). By 2036 this is forecast to rise to approximately 1000 places (the equivalent of 0.9 new secondary schools), even when taking into account the forecast surplus capacity of the existing secondary schools in southern Geelong.

To address this, the Department of Education and Training and the City of Greater Geelong have identified future sites for three government secondary schools within Armstrong Creek.

Given the forecast demand within the study area, it is expected that an additional government secondary school will be required in Armstrong Creek between 2026 and 2036, subject to funding ability and the prioritisation of funding to meet greater demand needs across Victoria.

A second or third government secondary school in Armstrong Creek is not expected to be required until beyond 2036. However, this could change due to updates to the population forecasts that are used by the Department to forecast demand.


5. Other factors

Student enrolment trendsOverall, the number of students enrolled at Belmont High School, Oberon High School and Grovedale College (refer to Appendix 2 – Data sets) has declined by almost 10 per cent in the last five years, from approximately 3,000 in 2011 to 2,700 in 2016, while the reduction in local enrolments has been 31 students, or less than 1.5 per cent.

The percentage of students that attend one of these three schools and also reside in the study area has in fact increased; from 67 per cent in 2011 to 73 per cent in 2015 (2016 student address data is available in September 2016). This is largely due to reduced enrolments from students living the catchments of Surf Coast Secondary College and Lorne-Aireys Inlet P–12 College. This reduction coincides with the opening of Surf Coast Secondary College in 2012.

Table 1: Analysis of residing area for students enrolled at Belmont High School, Oberon High School and Grovedale College (2016 student address data is available in Sept 2016)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Historic EnrolmentBelmont High School 1,181 1,192 1,200 1,208 1,210

Oberon High School 1,091 904 770 700 660

Grovedale College 841 883 875 901 841

Total Enrolments 3,113 2,979 2,845 2,809 2,711

Residing school catchment - Study AreaBelmont High School 706 738 763 767 751

Grovedale College 727 726 704 680 708

Oberon High School 588 583 556 534 531

Subtotal residing in study area 2,021 2,047 2,023 1,981 1,990

Per cent residing in study area 65% 69% 71% 71% 73%

Residing school catchment - Outside study areaSurf Coast Secondary College 466 385 318 268 214

Bellarine Secondary College 128 135 132 140 144

Newcomb Secondary College 70 65 75 109 128

Lorne-Aireys Inlet P–12 College 101 91 77 75 76

Western Heights Secondary College 88 78 68 78 66

Geelong High School 33 25 26 29 38

Northern Bay P–12 College 28 22 23 35 35

Lara Secondary College 7 12 7 9 9

North Geelong Secondary College 4 5 8 15 11

Other 167 114 88 70 0

Subtotal residing outside area 1,092 932 822 828 721

Per cent residing outside study area 35% 31% 29% 29% 27%Student address data analysis for Belmont High School, Oberon High School and Grovedale College is discussed below. The full data set can be found in Appendix 2 – Data sets.


Grovedale College A total of 839 students attended Grovedale College in 2015. Of those, 432 students resided within the local Grovedale College catchment, 431 within the Oberon HS catchment and 68 within the Surf Coast SC catchment (refer Table 2).

Enrolments at Grovedale College have remained steady. In 2011 there were 841 students enrolled, this has increased slightly to 882 students in 2016. This amounts to a 5 per cent increase.

The Department’s condition assessment rating for Grovedale College is fair.

Belmont High School A total of 1,219 students attended Belmont High School in 2015. Of those, 672 students resided within the local Belmont HS catchment, 165 within the Grovedale College catchment and 130 within the Oberon HS catchment (refer Table 2).

Enrolment at Belmont High School has remained steady. In 2011 there were 1,181 students enrolled, this increased slightly to 1,230 students in 2016. This amounts to a 4 per cent increase.

The Department’s condition assessment rating for Belmont High School is fair.

Oberon High School A total of 660 students attended Oberon High School in 2015 (and 598 in 2016). Of those (in 2015), 221 students resided within the local Oberon catchment, 116 were from within the Bellarine SC catchment, 111 from the Grovedale College catchment and 55 from the Surf Coast catchment (refer Table 2).

In contrast, in 2011 there were 1,091 students enrolled at Oberon High School. Of those, 295 students resided within the local Oberon catchment, 102 were from Bellarine SC, 186 were from Grovedale and 261 were from Surf Coast.

Enrolment has significantly decreased in recent years, with a 45 per cent reduction in students in this time period.

There has been a 69 per cent decrease in enrolments at Oberon High School from students living within the Surf Coast Secondary College local area, from 261 students in 2011 to 55 students in 2014.

The Department’s condition assessment rating for Oberon High School is fair to worn.

2016-17 State Budget FundingOberon High SchoolIn the 2016-17 State Budget, $2.5 million has been allocated to the school for upgrade and modernisation

Timelines (based on calendar year) Architect Appointed: Q3, 2016 Builder Appointed: Q4, 2017 Sod Turn: Q4, 2017 Building Opening: Q4, 2018

Grovedale CollegeIn the 2016-17 State Budget, $7 million has been allocated to the school for upgrade and Modernisation

Timelines (based on calendar year) Architect Appointed: Q3, 2016


Builder Appointed: Q4, 2017 Sod Turn: Q4, 2017 Building Opening: Q1, 2019

Belmont High SchoolIn the 2016-17 State Budget, $5 million has been allocated to the school for upgrade and modernisation.

Timelines (based on calendar year) Architect Appointed: Q3, 2016 Builder Appointed: Q4, 2017 Sod Turn: Q4, 2017 Building Opening: Q1, 2019

Each school is at the beginning of the building project process. The next stage will be consultation with the students, teachers and local community. This will help to identify what building works are needed, and begin to prioritise them. The curriculum needs of the school, as well as their future ambitions, will form part of this process.

Each school will be supported by the Department to make sure that the building works are in line with the needs of the school community and that they fit in with the school's vision for the future. When this scoping is complete, an architect will be appointed to undertake detailed designs and drawings.

The above quarters are forecasted only and subject to change dependant on future budget decisions and other varying factors.

Key findingsWhile the overall number of students enrolled at Belmont High School, Oberon High School and Grovedale College has declined by 300 students, or almost 10 per cent, between 2011 and 2015, the reduction in local enrolments has been 31 students, or less than 1.5 per cent.

The percentage of students that attend one of these three schools and also reside in the study area has in fact increased, from 67 per cent in 2011 to 73 per cent in 2015. This is largely due to a reduction in the number of students at these schools that reside in the catchments of Surf Coast Secondary College and Lorne-Aireys Inlet P–12 College, and this reduction coincides with the opening of Surf Coast Secondary College in 2012.

Thus there is little change in local enrolments to the secondary schools in the study area; rather there has been a significant reduction in the number of students attending who live outside the study area – primarily from the Surf Coast.

There is, however, a significant drop in the number of students living in the Oberon area that attend Oberon High School (295 in 2011 to 221 in 2015 (refer Table 3). This correlates with an increase in the number of students living in the Oberon area that attend Grovedale College (153 in 2011 up to 180 in 2015). This identifies that Grovedale College is currently the local school of choice.


6. Conclusions

Future additional secondary school provision While the overall number of students enrolled at Belmont High School, Oberon High School and Grovedale College has declined by 300 students, or almost 10 per cent, between 2011 and 2015. The reduction in local enrolments has been 31 students, or less than 1.5 per cent.

Thus there is little change in local enrolments to the secondary schools in the study area; rather there has been a significant reduction in the number of students attending who live outside the study area – primarily from the Surf Coast.

Furthermore, the Department has identified that most schools in southern Geelong require significant investment to bring them to a reasonable standard. The condition ratings of the three secondary schools included in this report are all below the Department’s acceptable condition rating of 3.5, and major work is needed to meet this standard.

Based on the needs assessment conducted, no additional schools are recommended in the study area of southern Geelong. The assessment identified that demand for government secondary schools in this area is forecast to peak in 2026, before falling back to 2016 levels by 2036.

Future additional secondary school provision in Armstrong CreekThe Armstrong Creek development area is expected to see sustained population growth that will require the delivery of seven to eight government primary schools and up to two government secondary schools by 2036.

The Department already owns land for the development of the first government secondary school in Armstrong Creek. Based on the needs assessment, this school is not likely to be required before 2026. The second and third proposed secondary schools in Armstrong Creek are not likely to be needed before 2036.

Options analysis for considerationThe Department has identified two options for the future government secondary school provision of southern Geelong. A detailed options analysis of how proposed infrastructure investment will meet forecast demand is included in Appendix 3 – Detailed options analysis.Option A involves keeping the existing government schools in southern Geelong while providing new government secondary schools as needed to meet forecast demand in Armstrong Creek.

Currently it is expected that two new secondary schools will be required in Armstrong Creek, by 2026 and 2036 respectively.

This option will create a surplus capacity of approximately 1,000 places in permanent facilities in 2036 to cater for expected future demand (DET forecasts are currently limited to 2036).

The Government already owns land for the first secondary school in Armstrong Creek. The second school will require investment in land acquisition and construction.

Option B involves relocating Oberon High School from its current site to the Armstrong Education Precinct by 2021 (noting that declining enrolments and ensuring provision of a high quality education at the school may support an earlier timeframe), as well as providing a second government secondary school in Armstrong Creek by 2036.

This will meet the forecast demand of two additional schools in Armstrong Creek by 2036, with the first to be provided up to five years earlier than in Option A.

The Government already owns land for the first school in Armstrong Creek. The second school will require investment in land acquisition and construction.


Appendix 1: Demand analysis of existing schoolsKey enrolment, demand and capacity statistics of the existing schools in the study area are shown below. A comprehensive set of data is included in Appendix 2.

Oberon High School

Site area: 8.8 hectares Estimated capacity: 1,000 (total), 950 (permanent) Enrolment: 1,184 (2010); 598 (2016; 605 (2020 projected) Demographic demand (2016):

- 1,028 secondary school-aged students lived in the local catchment - 696 or 68 per cent of these attended a government school - 295 or 43 per cent of these attended Oberon High School

Demographic Demand Forecast (2036): - 1,529 secondary school-aged students are forecast to live in the local catchment - If the local market share remained constant, 988 government secondary school-

aged students are forecast to live in the local catchment.


Belmont High School

Site area: 10.8 hectares Estimated capacity: 1,400 (total), 1,100 (permanent) Enrolment: 1,164 (2010); 1,230 (2016); 1,393 (2020 projected) Demographic demand (2016):

- 2,324 secondary school-aged students lived in the local catchment - 822 or 35 per cent of these attended a government school - 633 or 82 per cent of these attended Belmont High School

Demographic Demand Forecast (2035): - 2,497 secondary school-aged students are forecast to live in the local catchment - If the local market share remained constant, 859 government secondary school-

aged students are forecast to live in the local catchment.


Grovedale College

Site area: 8.1 hectares Estimated capacity: 1,050 (total), 1,000 (permanent) Enrolment: 823 (2010); 882 (2016) 1,049 (2020 projected). Demographic demand (2016)

- 1,345 secondary school-aged students lived in the local catchment - 855 or 64 per cent of these attended a government school - 383 or 47 per cent of these attended Grovedale College

Demographic Demand Forecast (2036): - 2,536 secondary school-aged students are forecast to live in the local catchment

- If the local market share remained constant, 988 government secondary school-aged students are forecast to live in the local catchment.


Appendix 2 – Data setsTable 2: Student address data analysis (2016 student address data will be available in Sepetmber 2016)

Attending School name

Grovedale College Belmont High School Oberon High School

Residing.School name 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Grand Total 811 848 850 873 839 1185 1185 1214 1215 1219 1031 883 743 684 660Grovedale College 383 402 410 431 432 158 164 157 144 165 186 160 137 105 111

Belmont High School 18 25 28 26 27 633 653 678 675 672 55 60 57 66 52

Oberon High School 153 163 172 170 180 140 137 146 144 130 295 283 238 220 221

Surf Coast Secondary College 103 107 100 84 68 102 103 105 101 91 261 175 113 83 55

Newcomb Secondary College 21 24 25 42 57 19 18 23 32 34 30 23 27 35 37

Lorne-Aireys Inlet P–12 College 33 39 33 34 33 11 11 12 15 15 57 41 32 26 28

Bellarine Secondary College 7 10 13 17 15 19 15 14 12 13 102 110 105 111 116

Western Heights Secondary College 14 13 14 23 14 58 55 42 42 40 16 10 12 13 12

Northern Bay P–12 College 2 6 5 9 7 12 9 9 15 17 14 7 9 11 11

Geelong High School 4 5 1 1 3 22 12 16 16 22 7 8 9 12 13

Lara Secondary College 2 5 2 3 2 2 4 5 5 7 3 3 1

Wyndham Central Secondary College 4 5 1 7 1 1

North Geelong Secondary College 1 1 4 3 2 4 11 9 1 2 3 2

Phoenix P–12 Community College 1

Hoppers Crossing Secondary College 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1

Colac Secondary College 1 1 2 2 1 1

Other 66 43 44 19 0 5 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0


Table 3: Capacity, enrolment and forecast demand data by school

YearSchool Name Values 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036Belmont High School

Site Area 10.82Estimated Capacity 1,400Estimated Perm Capacity 1,100

Historic Enrolment1,18

1 1,230

DDF (Total)2,15

8 2,3242,49

0 2,6282,54

5 2,497DDF (Local share) 776 822 870 913 878 859Market Share (Local) 36.0 35.4 34.9 34.7 34.5 34.4

Grovedale CollegeSite Area 8.09Estimated Capacity 1,050Estimated Perm Capacity 1,000Historic Enrolment 841 882

DDF (Total)1,32

0 1,3451,54

9 1,9862,31

5 2,536

DDF (Local share) 821 855 992 1,2911,50

7 1,651Market Share (Local) 62.2 63.6 64.0 65.0 65.1 65.1

Oberon High SchoolSite Area 8.78Estimated Capacity 1,000Estimated Perm Capacity 950

Historic Enrolment1,09

1 598

DDF (Total)1,00

7 1,0281,07

0 1,2211,38

7 1,529DDF (Local share) 688 696 727 816 908 988


Market Share (Local) 68.3 67.7 67.9 66.8 65.5 64.6


Table 4: Historic capital works investment by school

School Budget Year Program Description Project Description

State Announced

TEI

Comm Announced

TEI

Total Announced

TEI($000’s) ($000’s) ($000’s)

Belmont High School (7585)

2001/02 Modernisation pre-01/02 Projects to improve educational outcomes through the provision of 21st-century classrooms, facilities and technology. These may include modernisation of classrooms, libraries, specialist facilities and technology. $2,940

-$2,940

2005/06 Leading Schools Capital 05/06Builds the capacity of secondary schools to provide specialist programs to students, which may include science & technology, arts, languages, sport, design and music. This project involves provision of Year 7 Learning Centre (new building)

$520 -

$520

2005/06 Modernisation 05/06The provision of 21st-century classrooms and facilities, which may include modernisation of classrooms, libraries, specialist facilities/technology. This project includes Stage 3 – general purpose classrooms, staff administration and toilets

$5,240 -

$5,240

2009/10 National School Pride Program Round 1

-

$200 $200

2009/10 Specialisation and Excellence 09/10 (closed) $4,000

-$4,000

2016/17 upgrade and ModernisationEach school will be supported by the Department to make sure that the building works are in line with the needs of the school community and that they fit in with the school's vision for the future. When this scoping is complete, an architect will be appointed to undertake detailed designs and drawings

$5,000 $5,000

$17,700 $200 $17,900

Grovedale College (7183)

2001/02 Modernisation 01/02 The provision of 21st-century classrooms and facilities, which may include modernisation of classrooms, libraries, specialist facilities/technology. This project includes library refurbishment/deaf facility $35

-$35

2001/02 Modernisation for ICT Refurbishment of facilities to provide students with access to computers in specially designed areas $78 -

$78

2001/02 Modernisation pre-01/02 Projects to improve educational outcomes through the provision of 21st-century classrooms, facilities and technology. These may include modernisation of classrooms, libraries, specialist facilities and technology. $1,060

-$1,060

2004/05 Community Facility Fund Funding to support the construction of facilities which benefit schools and communities $250 -

$250

2006/07 Modernisation 06/07This program involves modernisation of classrooms, libraries, specialist facilities/technology. This project includes general purpose classrooms, technology, music, art, staff administration, student toilets and locker space

$2,940 -

$2,940


-

$200 $200

2009/10Science and Language Centres for 21st Century Secondary Schools

This Commonwealth program involves construction of new science or language centres which support specialist education. This specific project involves construction of a Language Learning centre

-

$1,970 $1,970


$7,000 $7,000

$11,363 $2,170 $13,533Oberon High School (8210)

2001/02 Modernisation for ICT Refurbishment of facilities to provide students with access to computers in specially designed areas $208 -

$208


2005/06 Leading Schools Capital 05/06 Builds the capacity of secondary schools to provide specialist program to students, which may include science & technology, arts, languages, sport, design and music. $220

-$220

2007/08 Modernisation 07/08 (closed) $1,783 -

$1,783


-

$200 $200


$2,500 $2,500

$4,711 $200 $4,911


Appendix 3 – Detailed options analysis

Option A – Southern Geelong

South Geelong2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Total population 3,9453,98

7 4,217 4,4084,24

2 4,133

Enrolments 3,1132,75

8 3,047

DDF (Current Local Market Share) 2,1892,21

3 2,340 2,4462,35

4 2,294

Permanent Capacity 3,0503,05

0 3,050 3,0503,05

0 3,050


Option A – Armstrong Creek

Armstrong Creek2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Total population 91 432 9231,73

3 2,625 3,183

EnrolmentsDDF (Current Local Market

Share) 51 240 512 962 1,457 1,767

Permanent Capacity 0 0 01,00

0 1,000 2,000

Additional Schools 1 1

Two additional new secondary schools required, by 2026 and 2036 respectively

Second school will require investment in land acquisition and construction.


Option A – Total study area

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036


9 5,140 6,1416,86

7 7,316


8 3,047DDF (Current Local Market

Share) 2,2402,45

3 2,852 3,4083,81

1 4,061


0 3,050 4,0504,05

0 5,050


Two new secondary schools required, by 2026 and 2036 respectively 2020 enrolment forecasts and future demand both met by 100 per cent

permanent facilities Approximate surplus permanent capacity of 1,000 places in 2036 to cater

for expected future demand growth (DET forecasts are currently limited to 2036).


Option B – Southern Geelong

South Geelong2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036


7 4,217 4,4084,24

2 4,133



Share) 2,1892,21

3 2,340 2,4462,35

4 2,294


0 2,050 2,0502,05

0 2,050

Proposed closure of Oberon High School by 2021 Future demand met by 75 per cent permanent facilities Potential savings due to the sale of Oberon High School site.


Option B – Armstrong Creek

Armstrong Creek2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Total population 91 432 923 1,733 2,625 3,183

EnrolmentsDDF (Current Local Market

Share) 51 240 512 962 1,457 1,767

Permanent Capacity 0 0 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000

Relocatable Capacity 0 0 100 100 450 200


Two new secondary schools required by 2021 and 2036 respectively


Option B – Total study area

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036


9 5,140 6,1416,86

7 7,316



Share) 2,2402,45

3 2,852 3,4083,81

1 4,061


0 3,050 3,0503,05

0 4,050

Relocatable Capacity 400 400 500 450 800 550


Two new secondary schools required by 2021 and 2036 respectively Enrolment forecast and future demand for 2020 both met by 100 per cent

permanent facilities; forecast demand in 2031–36 to be met by approximately 75 per cent permanent facilities

Permanent capacity expected to match 2036 forecast demand, so growth in demand beyond this time will require the development of an additional secondary school (DET forecasts are currently limited to 2036)


Appendix 3 – Review of feedbackThe first meeting of the Community Reference Group was held on 28 April 2016 and was attended by principals and parent/school council representatives from Oberon High School, Belmont High School and Grovedale College, staff from the Department of Education and Training and staff from the City of Greater Geelong. Stakeholders indicated broad support for Option B which involves the relocation of Oberon High School and the majority of feedback was focused around this option. Teleconferences were also held after the meeting with some members of the Community Reference Group and written feedback was also received.

Key issues identified at and following the meeting include:

Timing for implementationStakeholders voiced broad support for the relocation of Oberon High School as soon as possible. Stakeholders identified that leaving Oberon High School at its current location for an extended period of time may result in a further reduction in student numbers and challenge its viability due to having limited curriculum choices, VCE offerings and issues of staff excess. There was also an awareness of the growing number of enrolments and demand for secondary school provision coming from Armstrong Creek and a desire to ensure that a local school is set up to address the need for students in this growing area who currently travel into Geelong for schooling.

Ensuring that the remaining secondary schools in southern Geelong have sufficient capacity to meet local demand for secondary school provisionThe potential relocation of Oberon High School will reduce the overall government secondary capacity in the southern Geelong area, placing additional demand on the remaining secondary schools which are already at enrolment capacity. Whilst some students who attend these schools may choose to attend a relocated school, the Department will need to ensure that the remaining schools have sufficient capacity to meet the local demand for secondary provision. Consideration may need to be given to additional capital works investment at remaining secondary schools in southern Geelong to allow for a reconfiguration to accommodate additional local demand. Furthermore, enrolments and demand from families moving into Armstrong Creek West will need to be monitored closely, as population growth this area may increase demand at the remaining schools in southern Geelong and can be accommodated through the provision of additional future additional schools in Armstrong Creek.

Future use of Oberon High school site Community Reference Group Members have asked that the future use of the site be considered in the context of preventing issues that can occur when sites are under-utilised and there is time before a decision made around land ownership and usage. Vacating the existing Oberon site may potentially have a negative impact on the Oberon South Primary School, particularly if the site is left vacant for a significant length of time and the impact of any works should consider the impact on the primary school.

Implications for Oberon South Primary SchoolThere are a number of implications from Option B for Oberon South Primary School which is collocated with Oberon High School. There is an existing relationship between the primary school and the secondary school and this may affect primary school enrolments, due to factors such as there not being an obvious transition point and difficulties for families with primary and secondary aged students and school drop-offs. Under Option A, Oberon South Primary School could be considered alongside the rebuilding of Oberon High School.

Bus InterchangeOberon High School is the location of a significant local bus interchange for buses coming in from Colac, the Surf Coast and from Ocean Grove. If the school was to relocate consideration would need to be given to a future site for the bus interchange. Feedback from Community Reference Group member has not yet identified an obvious option for where the bus interchange would be located. Consideration would also need to be given to the bus connections of a future school at Armstrong Creek for buses that travel through that area to Geelong.


Student transportLocal travel arrangements will need to be examined prior to a reconfiguration of provision as the proposed relocation of Oberon High School is expected to alter the travel entitlements of students from surrounding areas. Feedback was received that efforts are made to minimise any negative impact on current Oberon High School students that are accessing bus travel.

School identityIt was suggested that consideration be given to the identity of a possible relocated Oberon High School, including school name and uniform and that support be offered to families to facilitate the transition and to ensure that families are not negatively affected by a change in location.

Revision to OptionsOption A involves keeping the existing government schools in southern Geelong while providing new government secondary schools as needed to meet forecast demand in Armstrong Creek.

• Currently it is expected that two new secondary schools will be required in Armstrong Creek, by approximately 2026 and 2036 respectively.

• This option will create a surplus capacity of approximately 1,000 places in permanent facilities in 2036 to cater for expected future demand (DET forecasts are currently limited to 2036).

Option B involves closing the current site of Oberon High School and relocating it to a new site in Armstrong Creek by 2021 (noting that declining enrolments and ensuring provision of a high quality education at the school may support an earlier timeframe), as well as providing a second government secondary school in Armstrong Creek by 2036.

• This will meet the forecast demand of two additional schools in Armstrong Creek by 2036, with the first to be provided up to five years earlier than in Option A.


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