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Report onManpower Projection to 2007

Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

June 2003

Report onManpower Projection to 2007

Economic Analysis Division, Financial Services and the Treasury Bureauin collaboration with

Education and Manpower Bureau,Census and Statistics Department, and

Labour Department

Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

June 2003

Manpower projection to 2007

Content Paragraphs

Summary (pages i – v)

Introduction 1 - 3

The macroeconomic scenario 4 - 5

Approach for the assessment 6 - 8

Assessment results

(A) Manpower requirement projections

(i) Projection of manpower requirement by economicsector

9 - 11

(ii) Projection of manpower requirement by occupationcategory within economic sector

12 - 15

(iii) Projection of manpower requirement by educationalattainment within occupation category

16 - 20

(iv) Projection of manpower requirement in strategiceconomic sector/domain

21 - 37

(B) Manpower supply projections

(i) Population projection 38 - 39

(ii) Labour force projection 40 - 41

(iii) Projection of manpower supply by educationalattainment

42 - 43

(C) Projected manpower resource balance 44 - 48

(D) Comparison between the 2000-round and 2003-roundprojections

(i) Manpower requirement 49 - 52

(ii) Manpower supply 53 - 54

(iii) Manpower resource balance 55 - 56

(E) Surveys and consultations

(i) Household survey on employment concerns and trainingneeds

57 - 65

(ii) Establishment survey on manpower training and jobskill requirements

66 - 76

(iii) Broad-level consultation with business, labour andrelated organisations

77 - 82

Concluding remarks 83 - 90

Annexes 1 - 56

- i -

Manpower Projection to 2007

Summary

The general trend of globalisation in trade and investment, the rapidadvances in production, service and communications technologies, as well as China’srobust economic growth and progressive liberalisation together with accession to theWorld Trade Organisation (WTO), have been prompting profound changes in theglobal and regional economic scene. In an increasingly competitive internationalmarketplace, it is crucial for Hong Kong to foster a well-educated, well-trained,capable and versatile workforce in order to stay aloft in the pursuit of businessopportunities and hence to sustain overall economic growth. It is against thisbackground that the Government has carried out another round of projection ofmanpower requirement and supply to 2007, further to its earlier projection up to2005.

2. There are two main tracks of work in this projection exercise. Theseare (i) making quantitative projections of manpower requirement and supply for themedium-term period; and (ii) soliciting qualitative views of employers andemployees on business outlook, employment prospect, career aspirations and trainingneeds through surveys and consultations.

3. Projection of manpower requirement, covering all employed HongKong residents regardless of their place of work and excluding foreign domestichelpers, is done in a manner that is free from constraint from the manpower supply.This is intended to reflect fully the extent of potential job opportunities emerging.On this basis, total manpower requirement is projected to grow from 3.03 million in2001 to 3.22 million in 2007, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.0% oran addition of 193 300 jobs over the period.

4. Analysed by economic sector, the financing, insurance, real estate andbusiness services sector is projected to have the fastest increase in manpowerrequirement, at an average annual rate of 3.0% over the period 2001-07. Thetransport, storage and communications and the community, social and personalservices sectors are also projected to have relatively faster increase in manpowerrequirement, at average annual rates of 2.4% and 1.7% respectively over the sameperiod. Yet the wholesale, retail and import/export trades, restaurants and hotels

- ii -

sector and the construction sector are projected for rather slower rise in manpowerrequirement, both at an average annual rate of around 0.5% over the period. Thelocal manufacturing sector is projected for continued shrinkage in manpowerrequirement, with an average annual rate of decline of 5.5% over the period.Amongst the sub-sectors, particularly notable increases in manpower requirement areenvisaged for insurance, postal/courier services, sanitary services, non-Chineserestaurants, recreational services and business services.

5. In line with continuous orientation towards a service-specialised andknowledge-based economy, manpower requirement is likely to favour thehigher-skill, better-educated and more experienced workers. Hence on occupationcategory, total manpower requirement for managers and administrators,professionals and associate professionals taken together is projected to grow at anaverage annual rate of 3.3% over 2001-07, as against a decline of 0.3% projected forworkers below these levels.

6. Specifically, for associate professionals and professionals, manpowerrequirement is projected to have the fastest rise, at average annual rates of 4.0% and3.4% respectively over 2001-07, and then for managers and administrators, at acorresponding rate of 1.7%. For service workers and shop sales workers and forworkers in elementary occupations, manpower requirement is projected for anaverage annual increase of 1.2% for both categories over the same period. Yet forclerks, manpower requirement is projected for an average annual decline of 2.1%over 2001-07, amidst continuous automation and relocation of office processes.For plant and machine operators and assemblers and for craft and related workers,manpower requirement is likewise projected to decrease, on annual average by 0.7%and 0.8% respectively over the period.

7. Concurrent with a shift in manpower requirement towards the uppersegment of the occupation hierarchy, a shift towards the higher end of educationalattainment is also foreseen. Manpower requirement for persons at post-secondarylevel and at first degree level and above are projected for strong growth over2001-07, on annual average by 5.4% and 6.3% respectively. These taken togethermore than offset the projected decline in manpower requirement for persons at lowersecondary level and below and at upper secondary level, on annual average by 1.6%and 1.0% respectively over the same period.

8. Analysing the educational attainment requirement within differentoccupation categories, a virtually across-the-board upgrading is expected. Ofparticular note is the projected upward shift in demand for managers and

- iii -

administrators more towards persons at first degree level and above, for associateprofessionals more towards persons at sub-degree level and above, for clerks moretowards persons at post-secondary level, as well as for craft and related workers,plant and machine operators and assemblers, and workers in elementary occupationsall more towards persons at upper secondary level.

9. The five strategic economic sectors/domains are expected to providemuch impetus to the growth in overall manpower requirement over the medium-termperiod. Specifically, manpower requirements in information technology, tourism,professional services and financial services are all projected to grow at asignificantly faster pace than overall manpower requirement in the economy to 2007,at average annual rates of 6.1%, 5.9%, 3.7% and 2.7% respectively as compared tothat of 1.0% overall. As to manpower requirement in trading and logistics, it isprojected to grow nearly on par with the overall pace, at an average annual rate of0.9% over the same period. Also, this sector will continue to provide considerablejob opportunities, projected at slightly more than one-quarter of the totalemployment in 2007. In general, it shows that for all these strategicsectors/domains, the trend of continuous shift towards workers with better educationand higher skills is likely to continue.

10. The total local manpower supply, i.e. excluding foreign domestichelpers and imported workers, is projected to expand from 3.20 million in 2001 to3.35 million in 2007. This represents an average annual growth rate of 0.8% overthe period. The increase is attributable entirely to a projected rise in the populationof working age, at an average annual rate of 1.5%, which more than offsets aprojected decline in the overall labour force participation rate.

11. Differentiating by educational attainment, manpower supply at lowersecondary level is projected to decline by an annual average of 1.5% over 2001-07,as young people are less likely to stop at this education level upon the availability ofbetter education opportunities at a higher level. Manpower supply at uppersecondary level is projected to increase only mildly, by an annual average of 0.7%over the same period. Manpower supply at post-secondary level and at first degreelevel and above are nevertheless projected for distinctly faster growth, on annualaverage by 3.1% and 4.6% respectively over the period.

12. Matching the projections of manpower requirement and manpowersupply by broad educational attainment groups, the projected manpower resourcebalance in 2007 can be depicted.

- iv -

Projected manpower resource balanceby broad educational attainment in 2007

(a) (b) (c) = (a) - (b)(d) = (c)/(a)

x 100%

Broad educational attainment

Projectedmanpower supply*

Projectedmanpower

requirement**

Projectedmanpowerresource

balance

As % of therespectiveprojected

manpower supply

Lower secondary and below 1 236 200 1 102 700 +133 500 +10.8

Upper secondary@ 989 100 891 000 +98 000 +9.9

Post-secondary # 501 200 566 400 -65 200 -13.0

First degree and above~ 626 000 662 500 -36 500 -5.8

Notes : (@) Including the upper secondary and craft levels.

(#) Including the matriculation, technician and sub-degree levels.

(~) Including the first degree and postgraduate levels.

(*) Excluding foreign domestic helpers and imported workers.

(**) Including all employed Hong Kong residents regardless of their place of work, andexcluding foreign domestic helpers.

(+) Surplus in manpower supply against requirement.

(-) Shortfall in manpower supply against requirement.

13. This shows that the projected surplus in manpower is most significant atthe lower secondary level and below, at 133 500 or 10.8% of the projected manpowersupply at that level in 2007. The projected surplus in manpower at the uppersecondary level is also considerable, at 98 000 or 9.9%. Both reflect that theevolving job requirements are less in favour of persons with up to such educationalattainment. On the other hand, there is a distinct projected shortfall in manpower atthe post-secondary level, at 65 200 or 13.0% of the projected manpower supply atthat level in 2007, as demand is being upgraded while supply is yet to catch upadequately. There is also much projected shortfall in manpower at the degree level,at 36 500 or 5.8%, as demand at such level should continue to be strong.

- v -

14. From the surveys and consultations, the feedback is in broad agreementwith the quantitative projection results, pointing to an upward shift in manpowerrequirement more towards workers with better education and higher skills. Inaddition to on-going orientation towards a knowledge-based economy, expandingbusiness opportunities in the mainland of China (the Mainland) upon China’saccession to WTO and ever closer economic links between Hong Kong and theMainland will also lift the demand for workers at the upper segment of theoccupation hierarchy.

15. From the perspective of the local workforce, those with highereducational attainment and at the upper segment of the occupation hierarchy aregenerally more optimistic about their job prospect, whereas those with lessereducation and skills are usually found to be less able to cope with changes inmanpower demand. Yet at all levels, most of them envisage a tighter jobrequirement and greater work intensity in the course of time. From the perspectiveof the business community, the establishments surveyed generally see the need toequip their staff well in order to compete. This poses an imperative task to theGovernment and the education and training institutions in regard to manpowerplanning and provision, in order to strive for an optimal and efficient use of theavailable human resources and to underpin economic growth.

16. Overall, the present assessment points to a gradually improved aggregatemanpower resource balance in the medium-term period to 2007, with the economybeing expected to return to a more stable growth path after the current setback. Butthere is likely to be protraction of a marked degree of imbalance at different broadlevels of educational attainment. Recognising the economic uncertainties that mayemerge from time to time on both the external and domestic fronts, as well as thetechnical margin of uncertainty with a projection exercise of this nature, it isadvisable to have periodic review and update of the manpower projection, in order tokeep track of the evolving economic situation and developments in the labourmarket.

------------------------------


Introduction

The trend of globalisation as facilitated by the advance in informationtechnology (IT), coupled with China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation(WTO), has led to a new order in international division of labour. In thisincreasingly competitive environment, it is crucial for Hong Kong to foster awell-educated, well-trained, capable and versatile workforce in order to succeed inthe pursuit of business opportunities and to benefit from the robust economicgrowth in the mainland of China (the Mainland). It is against this backgroundthat the Government has carried out a new round of projection of manpowerrequirement and supply to 2007.

2. As in the last round conducted in 2000(1), the projection is thecombined result of a quantitative analysis of data and a qualitative analysis offeedback from surveys and consultations. In addition to this main report, fivesupplementary reports have been compiled to provide more focused analysis ofthe projected manpower requirement in the five economic sectors/domains whichare of strategic importance to the Hong Kong economy. There are also a numberof detailed analytical and survey reports underpinning the study results as given inthis main report. The titles of these supplementary reports and detailed reportsare listed in Annex 1.

3. Apart from this introduction, the main report comprises four mainparts. Part I provides a broad outline of the macroeconomic scene that is likelyto influence the development of the Hong Kong economy in the coming years,with ensuing implications for the labour market. Part II describes in broad termsthe approach and methodologies adopted for projecting the manpower requirement,manpower supply and manpower resource balance to 2007. Part III presents thekey projection results thus derived, as well as the major findings from the surveysand consultations. Part IV gives some concluding remarks.

(1) “Report on Manpower Projection to 2005”, Economic Analysis Division of the thenFinancial Services Bureau in collaboration with the Education and Manpower Bureau,Census and Statistics Department, and Labour Department, November 2000.

- 2 -

The macroeconomic scenario

4. With its high degree of external orientation, the Hong Kong economyhas been hit profoundly by the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the synchronisedglobal economic downturn in 2001. But still, the economy has derived itsgrowth impetus mainly from the external source over the past few years, as thecompletion of the Airport Core Programme project in 1997-98 and the bursting ofthe property market bubble after 1997 resulted in a sharp decline in domesticspending within the economy. Against this background, manpower requirementin the local economy was generally slack during 1998-2002, except in 2000 whenthe economy staged a robust upturn.

Slack labour market conditions : Amidst a profound shock externally,the unemployment rate soared from below 3% to nearly 6% over thecourse of 1998. Even with a strong pick-up in overall economicactivity in 2000, the unemployment rate was still higher than thenormal level. This has raised concern about structural change in thelabour market, and the likelihood of a weaker link between theexternal and the domestic economic dimensions. The abrupt changein demand, coupled with the pressure in maintaining costcompetitiveness, has prompted the corporate sector to take a morecritical look at its manpower resource situation, resulting in waves ofcorporate downsizing and restructuring.

Along with the reduction in staffing, employment has shifted moretowards workers with higher skill and better educational attainment,leaving those at the lower level being harder hit. For the economyas a whole, this shift in employment composition helps reduce costand render higher average labour productivity, and facilitates thedevelopment of more sophisticated and higher value-added activities.However, workers at the lower level, being generally less adaptableto changes in manpower demand, may thus not be able to benefit asmuch from further economic growth.

China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation : China is now inthe second year of its accession to WTO. Over the past year or so, theMainland saw robust export growth and accelerated capital inflow.Foreign capital will spur technological upgrading in both productionfacilities and management skills, as well as lift further the export

- 3 -

capacity. This, together with continued revamping of enterprises andliberalisation of markets, should greatly enhance the growth potential ofthe Mainland economy, although there will continue to be challenges inadaptation and adjustment.

Sustained economic growth and market opening in the Mainland willbring about ample business opportunities for Hong Kong companies.In the past two decades or so, Hong Kong has benefited enormouslyfrom the Mainland’s open door policy through exercising itsmiddleman role in trading and foreign direct investment, and throughrelocation of the more labour-intensive production process across theboundary. As a highly service-oriented economy, Hong Kong can beexpected to benefit even more from the Mainland’s progressive openingup of its service sectors following WTO accession, including sectorslike banking, securities, distribution, tourism and telecommunications.The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) with theMainland is expected to present broader and deeper businessopportunities for Hong Kong companies in the vast Mainland market.In turn, this will provide ample employment opportunities for the HongKong workforce. Upon closer co-operation with the Mainland in theeconomic sphere, Hong Kong will thrive as a leading hub and gatewayfor the huge hinterland.

A new global and regional economic order : Over the past decade,the global economy was characterised by expansion in the US andEast Asian economies, along with shrinkage or slackening in theJapanese and European economies. The US economy, after over tenyears of uninterrupted growth, now contributes around one-third ofthe world GDP. Yet the ascendancy of the East Asian economies, inparticular the Mainland economy, is also respectable. China’scontribution to the world GDP almost doubled over a span of just tenyears, with a share of 3.9% in 2002. The Mainland is expected toplay a more prominent role in both the global and the regionaleconomies in the years ahead, given the sheer size and potential of itseconomy and it now being a WTO member.

In fact, China had been the key engine of economic growth in theregion over the past few years, as reflected by the robustintra-regional trade involving the Mainland. Apart from being amajor manufacturer for the world, the Mainland is also a growing

- 4 -

consumer of world products, thereby providing an increasingly usefulbuffer against slow-down in demand in other parts of the world.The Mainland is thus playing such a dual role in the overallglobalisation process, which has become irreversible with theadvance in technology and move towards greater liberalisation. Therecent concern with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)may only be a brief aberration in this main mega trend.

5. The emergence of an increasingly competitive international businessenvironment will however aggravate the current mismatch between labourdemand and supply in Hong Kong. In order to make optimal use of the humanresources, it is of utmost importance to identify at an early stage the extent ofimbalance between projected manpower requirement and supply at the variouseducation levels, and henceforth to devise appropriate policy measures to redress.

Approach for the assessment

6. There are two main tracks of work in the present assessment. Theseare (i) making quantitative projections of manpower requirement and supply forthe period up to 2007; and (ii) soliciting qualitative views of employers andemployees on business outlook, employment prospect, career aspiration andtraining needs through surveys and consultations. The methodologies underlyingthese two major tracks of work are described below.

7. On quantitative projection, a bottom-up approach involving detaileddata analysis and statistical model fitting is adopted for projecting manpowerrequirement by economic sector in 2007. This is further broken down intomanpower requirements by occupation category and educational attainment, formatching against the projected manpower supply by educational attainment. Inthis quantitative analysis, account has been taken of the detailed labour force andemployment data collated from the 2001 Population Census(2), the General

(2) The 2001 Population Census provides a comprehensive data set for analysis of and henceformulation of projection for manpower requirement by occupation category andeducational attainment within economic sector. It also provides the necessary data inputfor projecting manpower supply. It is for these reasons that 2001 has been chosen as thebase year for the present round of manpower projection. That said, reference has alsobeen made to the actual data in 2002, as well as to the findings of the two qualitativesurveys on households and on establishments and of the consultations conducted in aroundmid-2002, in working up the projection results.

- 5 -

Household Survey, and the Survey of Employment and Vacancies onEstablishments. Reference has also been made to the qualitative views obtainedfrom surveys and consultations.

Manpower requirement

Projection of manpower requirement by economic sector :Projection is made of the total manpower requirement and its sectoraldistribution up to 2007, covering all employed Hong Kong residentsregardless of their place of work and excluding foreign domestichelpers, in a way which is unconstrained by the overall labour supply.This is intended to reflect fully the extent of potential jobopportunities emerging. For this purpose, statistical forecastingmodels have been formulated and run for 40 major economic sectors,based on their respective employment data series from 1986 to 2001.The projected growth rates thereby generated are then examinedcarefully and refined, taking into account the views of industryleaders, trade association representatives, academic experts, andrelevant Government bureaux and departments as obtained during theconsultations. Applying these projected growth rates to thebase-year employment figures for 2001 gives the projection ofmanpower requirement by economic sector for 2007.

Projection of manpower requirement by occupation category withineconomic sector : This involves a more detailed breakdown of theprojection for each of the economic sectors into nine majoroccupation categories, for which the respective growth rates up to2007 are projected primarily on the basis of their growth trends overthe period 1996-2001. Relevant information gathered from thesurveys and consultations is also taken into account. Applying theseprojected growth rates to the base-year 2001 figures yields theprojection of manpower requirement by occupation category withineconomic sector for 2007.

Projection of manpower requirement by educational attainmentwithin occupation category : Having regard to the past profile ofeducational attainment of employed persons and relevant feedbackfrom the surveys and consultations, the projection of manpowerrequirement by occupation category is further split into eight majorlevels of educational attainment for 2007.

- 6 -

Manpower supply

Population projection : This is the necessary starting point forprojection of manpower supply. Projection of the total populationand its age-sex composition is made on the basis of the fertility,mortality and migration trends envisaged for the future period.

Labour force projection : For projecting the labour force, a set ofprojected age-sex specific labour force participation rates (LFPRs) isrequired. This is obtained mainly from statistical extrapolation ofpast trends. Applying these projected LFPRs to the populationprojection, and then summing up the results across the variousage-sex groups, gives the projection of labour supply for 2007. Asthe focus is on the underlying manpower resource balance in the localeconomy, foreign domestic helpers and imported workers areexcluded.

Projection of manpower supply by educational attainment :Projection of local manpower supply by eight major levels ofeducational attainment for 2007 is made on the basis of theprogrammes planned for different levels of education and vocationaltraining over the period. The effects of ageing and mortality in theexisting manpower stock, as well as inflow/outflow of the respectivemanpower, have also been taken into account in working out theprojection.

Manpower resource balance

Manpower resource balance by educational attainment : Bringingtogether the projection of manpower requirement by educationalattainment and the corresponding projection of local manpowersupply gives the projection of manpower resource balance byeducational attainment for 2007.

8. On qualitative analysis, study is made of data and informationobtained from the two comprehensive and scientifically designed surveys ofhouseholds and business establishments conducted by the Census and StatisticsDepartment (C&SD), and from the broad-level consultation with selected business,labour and related organisations conducted by the Labour Department (LD).

- 7 -

Household survey on employment concerns and training needs :This survey was commissioned by C&SD during the third quarter of2002. At a response rate of 72%, a total of 8 000 households weresuccessfully enumerated for their views on a wide range of issues ofconcern to persons in the labour force, including challenges/problemsencountered in the current jobs, perceived prospects of the currentlyengaged economic sectors and occupation categories, impact broughtabout by corporate restructuring since 2001, personal careeraspirations, experience in and aspirations for working in the Mainland,and experience in and plan for attending job-relatedtraining/retraining courses. The questionnaire used for this surveyhad incorporated comments from local academic experts and tradeunions.

Establishment survey on manpower training and job skillrequirements : This survey was conducted by C&SD also during thethird quarter of 2002 to collect employers’ views on manpowertraining and job skill requirements. Specifically, employers wereinvited to give views on their future manpower requirements,aspirations and preparations in relation to Hong Kong’s economicrestructuring and China’s accession to WTO, manpower training andjob skill requirements, and evaluation of employees’ generalperformance. A total of 4 200 establishments were successfullyenumerated, constituting a response rate of 90%. The questionnairewas prepared after consulting local academic experts and tradeunions/business associations.

Broad-level consultation with business, labour and relatedorganisations : This consultation was undertaken by LD in June andJuly 2002. It was aimed at gauging views from employers’associations, employees’ groups and related organisations on theimpact that Hong Kong’s economic restructuring is likely to have onthe labour market. Specifically, respondents were asked to give theirviews, via self-administered questionnaires, on opportunities andchallenges for the local labour market as a result of restructuring ofthe local economy, prospects in the various sectors and for theeconomy as a whole, and possible measures to upgrade the quality oflocal workers. A total of 48 replies were received, giving a responserate of 49%.

- 8 -

Assessment results

(A) Manpower requirement projections

(i) Projection of manpower requirement by economic sector

9. Total manpower requirement, covering employed Hong Kongresidents and excluding foreign domestic helpers, is projected to continue to growover the medium term, from 3.03 million in 2001(3) to 3.22 million in 2007,representing an average annual growth rate of 1.0% (Annex 2). Although this isfaster than the actually attained average annual growth in total employment,excluding foreign domestic helpers, of 0.7% in 1996-2001, it is slower than thecorresponding growth of around 1.2% in 1990-96(4). Total employment, aftercontracting in 1998 and 1999 upon the impact of the Asian financial crisis,rebounded in 2000 and 2001, yet shrank again in 2002.

(3) This pertains to the Composite Employment Estimate, which is compiled annually byC&SD on the basic of the results from the Quarterly Survey of Employment and Vacancies,the General Household Survey, and other supplementary data sources. As eachconstituent set of employment data is subject to some limitations in revealing the level anddistribution of territory-wide employment by economic sector, the Composite EmploymentEstimate, having been reconciled with due regard to the relative strengths and weaknessesof these data sources, provides an overall better set of employment figures for applicationin general and for analysing the sectoral breakdown of employment in particular.

(4) The figure for 1990-96 is compiled under the old-definition population series, before thecurrent “resident population” approach is adopted for compiling the population estimates.

- 9 -

Table 1 : Projected manpower requirement by economic sector

Economic sector

Actualemployment in 2001

Projectedmanpower

requirement in 2007 Change in 2007 over 2001

Number % share Number % share Number % change

Averageannual %change

Primary

Agriculture and fishing 11 000 0.4 8 400 0.3 -2 600 -23.4 -4.3

Secondary

Mining and quarrying 200 * 100 * -100 -60.2 -14.2

Manufacturing 212 500 7.0 151 200 4.7 -61 300 -28.9 -5.5

Electricity, gas and water 13 600 0.4 12 600 0.4 -1 000 -7.2 -1.2

Construction 298 500 9.9 307 600 9.5 9 100 3.0 0.5

Tertiary

Wholesale, retail andimport/export trades,restaurants and hotels

1 049 600 34.6 1 084 300 33.6 34 600 3.3 0.5

Transport, storage andcommunications

362 400 12.0 417 100 12.9 54 700 15.1 2.4

Financing, insurance, realestate and businessservices

489 900 16.2 585 500 18.2 95 500 19.5 3.0

Community, social andpersonal services

591 600 19.5 655 900 20.4 64 300 10.9 1.7

All economic sectors# 3 029 400 100.0 3 222 700 100.0 193 300 6.4 1.0

Notes : (*) Less than 0.05%.

(#) Excluding foreign domestic helpers.

Figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding.

- 10 -

10. A breakdown by economic sector indicates that the tertiary sector, orthe service sectors as a whole, will constitute the major source of growth inmanpower requirement over the medium term, with its share in the overall totalprojected to rise further from 82% in 2001 to 85% in 2007. On the other hand,the share of the secondary sector in overall manpower requirement is projected tocontinue to decline, from 17% in 2001 to 15% in 2007. This is mainlyattributable to a further contraction in the share for the manufacturing sector, from7% to 5%. The corresponding share for the construction sector is projected toremain broadly stable over the period, at slightly below 10%. As to the primarysector, its share in overall manpower requirement is projected to stay at less than1% up to 2007.

Diagram 1 : Manpower requirement by economic sector, 2001 and 2007

Agricultureand

fishing

Miningand

quarrying

Manufacturing Electricity,gas andwater

Construction Wholesale,retail andimport/export

Transport,storage

andcommunications

Financing,insurance,real estate

and

Community,social andpersonalservices

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200'000

2001 (actual employment) 2007 (projected manpower requirement)

11

trades,restaurantsand hotels

businessservices

8

213151

0.2 0.1 14 13

299 308

10501084

362417

490

585 592656

- 11 -

Diagram 2 : Actual employment by economic sector, 2001

Projected manpower requirement by economic sector, 2007

Wholesale, retail and import/export trades, restaurants and hotels

35%

Transport, storage and

communications12%

Financing, insurance, real

estate and business services

16% Community, social and personal services

20%

Construction10%

Electricity, gas and water

0.4%

Manufacturing7%

Mining and quarrying

<0.1%

Agriculture and fishing

0.4%

Secondary sector(17%)

Primary sector(0.4%)

Tertiary sector(82%)

Wholesale, retail and import/export trades, restaurants and hotels

34%

Transport, storage and

communications13%

Financing, insurance, real

estate and business services

18% Community, social and personal services

20%

Construction10%

Electricity, gas and water

0.4%Manufacturing

5%

Mining and quarrying

<0.1%

Agriculture and fishing

0.3%

Secondary sector(15%)

Primary sector(0.3%)

Tertiary sector(85%)

- 12 -

11. The individual industries, services and trades that make up thesebroader economic sectors are expected to show different growth profiles, asdiscussed below :

Within the service sectors, the wholesale, retail and import/exporttrades, restaurants and hotels sector is expected to remain the largestsource of employment over the medium term, with the manpowerrequirement projected at 1 084 300 in 2007. This is followed by thecommunity, social and personal services sector (655 900); thefinancing, insurance, real estate and business services sector(585 500); and the transport, storage and communications sector(417 100).

In the construction sector, manpower requirement is projected at307 600 in 2007. As to the other sectors, manpower requirement isprojected at 151 200 in manufacturing; 12 600 in electricity, gas andwater; 8 400 in agriculture and fishing; and 100 in mining andquarrying.

Ranked in terms of growth rate, the financing, insurance, real estateand business services sector is projected to have the fastest growth inmanpower requirement, at an average annual rate of 3.0% over theperiod 2001-07. This is largely underpinned by :

The high growth in the local insurance market, as thepenetration rate of life insurance is far from saturated so thatthe industry should have considerable room for expansion.Although the double-digit annual growth seen in the recentpast may not continue, the future growth in the industry wouldstill be robust;

The increase in manpower for real estate, to provide qualitybuilding management services, and to cope with the additionaldemand arising from the large number of new privateresidential flats; and

The expansion in business services, due to the popularity ofcontracting out IT services and the positive effect broughtabout by China's accession to WTO.

- 13 -

Transport, storage and communications will be another service sectorwith good growth potential. Its manpower requirement is projectedto increase at an average annual rate of 2.4% over 2001-07, largelyattributable to :

The further development of Hong Kong as a logistics hub inthe region, especially for air freight transport;

New business opportunities brought about by continuedtechnological advancement in the telecommunications andinternet services sector; and

Greater demand for courier or delivery services.

As to the community, social and personal services sector, manpowerrequirement is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7%over 2001-07. Despite the drop in employment in publicadministration, more notable growth in manpower requirement isexpected in the following areas :

The growth in population and the ageing phenomenon willincrease the manpower requirement in medical and healthservices as well as in other community and social services,especially in homes for the aged. Also, the severe impact ofSARS demonstrates the importance of maintaining sufficientmanpower for both prevention and cure in the medical andhealth field;

The Government's target of providing post-secondaryeducation to 60% of senior school graduates and thedevelopment of a knowledge-based economy will increase themanpower demand in education services;

The opening of Hong Kong Disneyland and the surge innumber of visitors from the Mainland will require moremanpower for recreational services;

- 14 -

Manpower requirement for sanitary services will be strong, inline with the trend of contracting out such services, andincreased focus on sanitary conditions in the aftermath ofSARS; and

The sustained increase in demand in respect of barber andbeauty shops as well as other personal services will add to themanpower requirement in this sector.

Yet the wholesale, retail and import/export trades, restaurants andhotels sector is projected to have a relatively slower growth inmanpower requirement, at an average annual rate of 0.5% over2001-07. The growth is expected to come mainly from thefollowing sources :

Despite a more or less stagnant manpower requirement in theimport/export trade over the past few years, the initiativesbeing taken to promote trade between Hong Kong and theMainland, including CEPA, should foster growth in this sectorand hence in its manpower requirement; and

The retail trade, restaurants, and hotels and boarding housesare expected to benefit from the robust growth in incomingvisitors, especially those from the Mainland.

Similarly, manpower requirement in the construction sector isprojected to grow only slowly, at an average annual rate of 0.5% over2001-07, with a relative shift in composition of manpower within thesector as follows :

The large-scale infrastructure projects to be developed willsupport the demand for on-site construction workers, but thesecivil engineering projects are less labour intensive than thehousing projects. Meanwhile, the subdued property marketand heavy scale-back in the Public Housing Programme willcontinue to restrain the demand for site workers. Overall,the demand for site workers is expected to fall over 2001-07;and

- 15 -

Yet this is expected to be more than offset by the growthenvisaged for non-site workers in the sector, including inparticular those providing repair and maintenance services onexisting buildings. More recently, the SARS impact hasaroused greater public concern about the importance of properbuilding maintenance, so raising manpower requirement inthis area.

On the other hand, manpower requirement in the local manufacturingsector is projected to continue to shrink, at an average annual rate of5.5% over 2001-07. This is largely attributable to the followingfactors :

The full elimination of quota restrictions on WTO members, ifto come about by 2005, will induce further relocation ofproduction facilities in the textiles and wearing apparelindustries to the Mainland;

Continuously improving investment environment in theMainland, including an abundant supply of skilled productionworkers and technologists as well as enhanced infrastructuralfacilities; and

Keen competition from other low cost production bases in theregion.

As to agriculture and fishing, mining and quarrying, and electricity,gas and water, these are sectors with relatively small size ofemployment, for which decreases in manpower requirement areprojected in 2007 over 2001.

Taking all the economic sectors together, total manpower requirementis projected to increase by 193 300 between 2001 and 2007, withbusiness services, non-Chinese restaurants and non-site constructiontaken together accounting for around half of the projected overallemployment gain. Also worth noting is the high growth rate ofmanpower requirement projected for insurance, postal/courierservices, sanitary services, non-Chinese restaurants, recreationalservices and business services (Annex 3).

- 16 -

(ii) Projection of manpower requirement by occupation category withineconomic sector

12. Concurrent with the on-going shift in economic structure moretowards knowledge-based activities, there has been a leap in demand forhigher-skill, better-educated and more experienced workers in recent years. Thistrend is expected to continue over the medium term. As an indication, totalmanpower requirement for managers and administrators, professionals andassociate professionals taken together is projected to grow at an average annualrate of 3.3% over 2001-07, distinctly faster than that of 1.0% projected for overallmanpower requirement.

13. Yet at the same time, manpower requirement for lower-skill workers(5)

is projected to shrink moderately, at an average annual rate of 0.3% over 2001-07.This is mainly due to a substantial drop in the demand projected for clerks, amidstcontinuous automation of office processes and relocation of supportingdepartments to lower cost areas outside Hong Kong. Also contributed in part is aprojected decline in the demand for craft and related workers and for plant andmachine operators and assemblers, along with further contraction in the localmanufacturing sector.

(5) In this assessment, lower-skill workers are defined to include clerks, service workers and shopsales workers, craft and related workers, plant and machine operators and assemblers, andworkers in elementary occupations.

- 17 -

Table 2 : Projected manpower requirement by occupation category

Occupation category

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Managers and administrators 283 900 9.4 314 600 9.8 30 800 10.8 1.7

Professionals 191 500 6.3 234 500 7.3 43 000 22.5 3.4

Associate professionals 583 000 19.2 737 200 22.9 154 300 26.5 4.0

Clerks 586 500 19.4 515 100 16.0 -71 400 -12.2 -2.1

Service workers and shopsales workers

430 800 14.2 461 700 14.3 31 000 7.2 1.2

Skilled agricultural andfishery workers

9 700 0.3 6 600 0.2 -3 100 -31.7 -6.2

Craft and related workers 291 800 9.6 278 900 8.7 -12 900 -4.4 -0.8

Plant and machine operatorsand assemblers

235 100 7.8 225 500 7.0 -9 600 -4.1 -0.7

Elementary occupations# 417 100 13.8 448 300 13.9 31 200 7.5 1.2

All occupation categories 3 029 400 100.0 3 222 700 100.0 193 300 6.4 1.0

Notes : (#) Examples are cleaners, messengers, watchmen and general labourers.


- 18 -

5 8 3

2 9 2

2 3 5

3 1 5

7 3 7

5 1 5

4 6 2

7

2 8 4

4 1 7

1 9 2

5 8 6

4 3 1

1 0

2 7 9

2 2 6

4 4 8

2 3 5

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

7 0 0

8 0 0

M an age rs an d

ad m in is tra to rs

P ro fe ss ion a ls A ssoc ia tep ro fession a ls

C lerk s S erv icew ork e rs a n d

sh op sa le sw ork e rs

S k illeda g ricu ltu ra la n d f ish ery

w ork e rs

C ra ft a n drela ted

w ork e rs

P la n t a n dm ac h in e

o p era to rs a n dassem b lers

E lem en ta ryoc cu p a tion s

'0 0 0

2 0 0 1 (a c tu a l e m p lo ym en t)2 0 0 7 (p ro jec ted m a n p o w e r re q u ire m e n t)

14. Thus the share of managers and administrators, professionals andassociate professionals in overall manpower requirement is projected to reach 40%in 2007, up from 35% in 2001. On the other hand, the share of lower-skillworkers is projected to decline, from 65% in 2001 to 60% in 2007.

Diagram 3 : Manpower requirement by occupation category, 2001 and 2007

- 19 -

Managers andadministrators

9%

Professionals6%

Clerks19%

Elementary occupations14%

Service workersand shop sales

workers14%

Plant and machineoperators and

assemblers8%

Craft and relatedworkers

10%


0.3%

Associate professionals19%

Personnelat theupper

segment(35%)

Personnelat thelower

segment(14%)

Professionals6%


9%


Clerks19%


workers14%

Plant and machineoperators and assemblers

8%

Craft and related workers10%


0.3%


Personnelat the upper

segment(35%)

Personnelat themiddlesegment(51%)

Personnel atthe lowersegment

(14%)

Professionals7%



7%



0.2%

Craft and related workers9%

Managers and administrators

10%


workers14%

Clerks16%

Personnel atthe upper

segment(40%)

Personnelat themiddlesegment(46%)

Personnelat thelower

segment(14%)

Diagram 4 : Actual employment by occupation category, 2001

Projected manpower requirement by occupation category, 2007

- 20 -

15. On manpower requirement by individual occupation categories, thefollowing results are noteworthy :

Of all the major occupation categories, manpower requirement forassociate professionals(6), especially those engaged in sales/marketingfunction for developing markets in Hong Kong and the Mainland, isexpected to have the most appreciable growth, along with China’saccession to WTO. Specifically, manpower requirement for thisparticular occupation category is projected to grow at an averageannual rate of 4.0% over 2001-07. In absolute terms, this means anincrease of 154 300 jobs over the period. The increase is expectedto be more apparent amongst associate professionals engaged in thewholesale, retail and import/export trades, restaurants and hotels, infinancing, insurance, real estate and business services, and incommunity, social and personal services (Annex 4).

Manpower requirement for professionals is also projected to growappreciably, at an average annual rate of 3.4% over 2001-07. Thiswill translate into a gain of 43 000 jobs. The increase is expected tobe more distinct amongst professionals engaged in financing,insurance, real estate and business services and in community, socialand personal services.

In tandem with more tourist attractions being developed in HongKong, particularly the opening of Hong Kong Disneyland, manpowerrequirement for service workers and shop sales workers will also beon the rise. A modest average annual growth rate of 1.2% isprojected over 2001-07, with an addition of 31 000 jobs concentratingin the community, social and personal services and in the wholesale,retail and import/export trades, restaurants and hotels sectors.

(6) Associate professionals are known to straddle a wide range of occupation categories.These include technicians, supervisors, survey interviewers, electrical draughtsmen, salesrepresentatives, insurance brokers, merchandisers, marketing officers and assistants, estateofficers, quality controllers, computer graphic designers, credit analysts, Chinese medicinepractitioners, dispensers, nurses, etc.

- 21 -

For workers in elementary occupations, manpower requirement islikewise projected to grow modestly, at an average annual rate of1.2% over 2001-07. This increase, with 31 200 additional jobs, islikely to be concentrated mostly in real estate and certain businessservices.

In contrast, a shrinkage in demand is envisaged for clerks, as there isfurther scope for office automation and relocation. The decrease, atan average annual rate of 2.1% or by 71 400 jobs over the mediumterm, is likely to be concentrated in the wholesale, retail andimport/export trades, restaurants and hotels, in the financing,insurance, real estate and business services, and in the manufacturingsectors.

Demand for craft and related workers and plant and machineoperators and assemblers is also projected to decline, predominantlyin the manufacturing sector. For these two groups, the averageannual rate of decline over the medium term is projected at 0.8% and0.7% respectively, corresponding to 12 900 and 9 600 jobs.

As to skilled agricultural and fishery workers, manpower requirementis projected to contract at an average annual rate of 6.2% over2001-07. Yet the number of jobs thereby reduced is relatively small,at about 3 000.

(iii) Projection of manpower requirement by educational attainmentwithin occupation category

16. Future manpower requirement is expected to shift more towards theupper end of the educational attainment ladder, in tandem with Hong Kong’sprogressive transformation into a knowledge-based economy.

17. Analysed by educational attainment, manpower requirement at nearlyall levels except upper secondary and lower secondary and below is projected togrow markedly between 2001 and 2007. More specifically, manpowerrequirement for workers at sub-degree level and above is projected to growstrongly, at an average annual rate of 6.8% or by 282 800 jobs over 2001-07. Onthe other hand, manpower requirement for workers at the secondary level and

- 22 -

below is projected to decline, at an average annual rate of 1.3% or by 166 200 jobsover 2001-07. Consequently, the share of the former group of workers in overallmanpower requirement is projected to increase significantly, from 19% in 2001 to27% in 2007, while the share of the latter group of workers is projected to dropdistinctly, from 71% to 61%.

Table 3 : Projected manpower requirement by educational attainment

Educational attainment

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower



Averageannual

% change

Lower secondary and below 1 212 200 40.0 1 102 700 34.2 - 109 500 -9.0 - 1.6

Upper secondary 933 100 30.8 876 400 27.2 - 56 700 -6.1 - 1.0

Matriculation 200 600 6.6 252 700 7.8 52 000 25.9 3.9

Craft 10 500 0.3 14 600 0.5 4 100 39.0 5.6

Technician 86 100 2.8 106 600 3.3 20 500 23.8 3.6

Sub-degree 127 200 4.2 207 100 6.4 79 900 62.8 8.5

First degree 379 200 12.5 538 500 16.7 159 300 42.0 6.0

Postgraduate 80 400 2.7 124 100 3.8 43 600 54.3 7.5

All education levels 3 029 400 100.0 3 222 700 100.0 193 300 6.4 1.0

Note : Figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding.

- 23 -

201

379

80

1103

253

15

107

207

1212

933

11

86127

538

124

876

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

Lower

secondary

and below

Upper

secondary

Matriculation Craft Technician Sub-degree First degree Postgraduate

' 000

2001 (actual employment)2007 (projected manpower requirement)

Diagram 5 : Manpower requirementby educational attainment, 2001 and 2007

- 24 -

Postgraduate3%

First degree13% Technician

3%

Matriculation7%

Upper secondary31%

Craft0.3%

Lower secondaryand below

40%

Sub-degree4%

First degreeand above

(15%)

Post-secondary(14%)

Upper secondary(31%)

Postgraduate4%

Upper secondary27%

Matriculation8%

Technician3%

Craft0.5%

First degree17%


34%

Sub-degree 6%


(21%)Post-secondary

(18%)


Diagram 6 : Actual employment by educational attainment, 2001

Projected manpower requirement by educational attainment, 2007

- 25 -

18. A more detailed breakdown of the above projection by occupationcategory shows a continuous rise in demand for higher-skill and better-educatedworkers virtually across-the-board, in line with the orientation towards aknowledge-based economy (Annex 5).

19. For workers at the upper segment of the occupation hierarchy,increase in share in total manpower requirement is generally expected to be morevisible at sub-degree education and above. For workers at the middle and lowersegments, increase in share in total manpower requirement is expected to beconcentrated more at the relatively lower education levels. Yet manpowerrequirement for workers with lower secondary education and below is predicted todecline for all occupation categories.

20. Of closer note is the projected upward shift in demand for managersand administrators more towards persons at first degree level and above, forassociate professionals more towards persons at sub-degree level and above, forclerks more towards persons at post-secondary level, as well as for craft andrelated workers, plant and machine operators and assemblers, and workers inelementary occupations all more towards persons at upper secondary level.

- 26 -

Table 4 : Projected significant change in share ofmanpower requirement by educational attainment within occupation category

between 2001 and 2007

Educational attainment withinoccupation category with

significant projected change in % share

Occupation category Increase > 2 % points Decrease > 2 % points

Managers and administrators ˙ FD ( + 5.9 ) ˙ LS ( - 4.8 )˙ PG ( + 2.8 ) ˙ US ( - 4.7 )

Professionals ˙ PG ( + 4.3 ) -

Associate professionals ˙ FD ( + 7.0 ) ˙ LS ( - 2.2 )˙ SD ( + 4.8 ) ˙ US ( - 9.4 )

Clerks ˙ FD ( + 3.6 ) ˙ US ( - 9.0 )˙ SD ( + 3.1 )˙ MA ( + 2.8 )

Service workers and shop salesworkers

˙ MA ( + 3.5 ) ˙ LS ( - 6.0 )

Craft and related workers ˙ TE ( + 3.2 ) ˙ LS ( - 8.9 )˙ US ( + 3.1 )

Plant and machine operators andassemblers

˙ US ( + 2.7 ) ˙ LS ( - 3.7 )

Elementary occupations ˙ US ( + 5.6 ) ˙ LS ( -7.7 )

Notes : (1) LS = lower secondary and below US = upper secondary MA = matriculationTE = technician SD = sub-degree FD = first degreePG = postgraduate

(2) Figures in brackets are the projected changes in percentage share at the specificeducational attainment between 2001 and 2007.

- 27 -

(iv) Projection of manpower requirement in strategic economicsector/domain

21. On the basis of the projected manpower requirement for the 40economic sectors above, projection of manpower requirement for the fiveeconomic sectors/domains which are considered to be of strategic importance tothe Hong Kong economy has been separately compiled. The results are set outbelow.

(a) Trading and logistics

22. The trading and logistics sector is composed of five major sub-sectors,viz. the import/export trade, the wholesale trade, freight transport, storage andmiscellaneous communications services. These sectors taken together accountedfor around 26.3% of Hong Kong’s total employment in 2001. Manpowerrequirement in the trading and logistics sector is projected to increase from795 300 in 2001 to 837 300 in 2007, or by an annual average of 0.9%. Logisticswill continue to provide the primary impetus to growth in manpower requirementin the whole sector over 2001-07, with a projected average annual increase in itsmanpower requirement at 2.4%, while trading will render only a moderate impetus,with a projected average annual increase in its manpower requirement at 0.3%(Annex 6). It is envisaged that more and more foreign companies will get intodirect contact with their counterparts in the Mainland, upon China’s accession toWTO. But Hong Kong’s position as a maritime and air services hub in theregion will still continue.

23. Analysed by occupation category, the requirements for professionalsand associate professionals are projected to have more notable growth between2001 and 2007 as compared to those for managers and administrators, for craftand related workers, and for plant and machine operators and assemblers, whilethe requirements for the other occupation categories are expected to fall (Annex 7).This suggests that, in overall terms, there is expected to be a further increase indemand for higher-skill workers, plausibly at the expense of lesser-skill ones,upon continued relocation of certain support functions to lower cost areas outsideHong Kong, and also amidst increasing use of electronic means for businesstransactions.

24. Analysed by educational attainment, manpower requirement forpersons with sub-degree education and above is projected to show distinctly fastergrowth over 2001-07 than manpower requirement for persons with lowereducation levels, in line with continuous upgrading in the education standard of

- 28 -

the local workforce. Yet reflecting demand for staff at the middlemanagement/supervisory ranks, the projected increases in manpower requirementfor persons at the matriculation and technician levels are also appreciable(Annex 8).

Diagram 7 : Manpower requirement in trading and logistics by occupation category, 2001 and 2007

Managers and

administrators

Professionals Associate professionals

Clerks Serviceworkersand shop

sales workers


Plant and machine operators

and assemblers

Elementaryoccupations

0

50

100

150

200

250

300'000


127144

17 22

234

11

236

14

91 102

180

13

278

11

79 75

Diagram 8 : Manpower requirement in trading and logistics by educational attainment, 2001 and 2007


Upper secondary

Matriculation Craft Technician Sub-degree First degree Postgraduate0

100

200

300

400'000


235209

327

281

227

78 7195

145

66

31

2

3313 19

- 29 -

(b) Tourism

25. Hong Kong is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the AsiaPacific region. Tourism activities embrace those segments providing servicesmainly to tourists, like hotels, travel agents, and inbound and outbound passengertransport, as well as those segments serving both tourists and local consumers, likethe retail trade, restaurants, and cultural and recreational services. The tourismdomain took up around 3.4% of the total employment in 2001. Manpowerrequirement for tourism is projected to increase from 103 600 in 2001 to 146 400 in2007, representing an average annual increase of 5.9% over the period. As visitorsfrom the Mainland are expected to have further solid growth over the medium term,the employment growth projected for inbound tourism exceeds that for outboundtourism (Annex 9).

26. Analysed by occupation category, manpower requirement in the tourismdomain is expected to increase rather extensively. Yet the requirements formanagers and administrators, professionals, associate professionals, as well asservice workers and shop sales workers are projected to have larger increases thanthe average for the domain over 2001-07, reflecting strong demand for better-skillstaff for improving operational efficiency and service quality, and also for frontlineservice staff to cater for business expansion (Annex 10).

27. Analysed by educational attainment, double-digit growth in manpowerrequirement is projected for persons with matriculation, sub-degree and postgraduateeducation during 2001-07. Nevertheless, manpower requirement for persons withsecondary education and below will still have a growth of around 4.5%, indicatingthe contribution of the tourism domain in rendering jobs at a relatively lowereducation level (Annex 11).

- 30 -

Diagram 9 : Manpower requirement in tourism by occupation category, 2001 and 2007

Managersand

administrators



sales workers



and assemblers


0

20

40

60

80'000


610

1 2

18

52

15

46 78

3

16

77

1114

Diagram 10 : Manpower requirement in tourism by educational attainment, 2001 and 2007


Upper secondary


20

40

60

80'000


47

59

37

49

0.4 3

15

6 712

720.3

41 1

- 31 -

(c) Financial services

28. The financial services sector has grown from strength to strength overthe past decades. Hong Kong now runs the world’s 11th largest stock market interms of market capitalisation, 12th largest banking centre in terms of externaltransactions, and seventh largest foreign exchange market, and is also one of themost vibrant insurance centres. The financial services sector as a wholesupported around 5.9% of the total employment in 2001. Manpower requirementin financial services is projected to increase from 180 000 in 2001 to 211 500 in2007, or at an average annual rate of 2.7%. Within the sector, manpowerrequirement for insurance is projected to grow most notably, as there still existsconsiderable scope for expansion in insurance services in view of the relativelylow penetration rate at present (Annex 12).

29. Analysed by occupation category, the requirements for managers andadministrators, professionals and associate professionals are projected to increasefurther during 2001-07, recognising the need to uphold the quality of service inface of keen competition in the market, and to strengthen management support tocater for business operation in the Mainland. On the other hand, the requirementfor clerks is projected to decline, owing to office automation and cost saving(Annex 13).

30. Concurrent with a shift in manpower requirement in this sectortowards the upper end of the occupation hierarchy, there will be greater demandfor better-educated workers, with projected visible growth in manpowerrequirement for persons with postgraduate, first degree and sub-degree education(Annex 14).

- 32 -

Diagram 11 : Manpower requirement in financial servicesby occupation category, 2001 and 2007

Managersand

administrators



sales workers



and assemblers


0

20

40

60

80

100'000


35

44

1216

53

0.1

93

0.4 1 1

67

0.4

61

0.24 4

Diagram 12 : Manpower requirement in financial services by educational attainment, 2001 and 2007


Upper secondary


20

40

60

80'000


1713

70

60

0.5

6

27

18

44

68

21

9

0.3

712

19

- 33 -

(d) Professional services

31. The professional services sector provides a wide range of essentialservices for the conduct of business, including accounting, legal, advertising,engineering, architectural and surveying, and IT and related services. Personsengaged in the provision of professional services accounted for around 4.2% ofthe total employment in 2001. Manpower requirement in this sector is projectedto increase by an annual average of 3.7% from 126 200 in 2001 to 156 500 in2007, with more notable growth expected for IT-related, legal and accountingservices (Annex 15).

32. Analysed by occupation category, the requirements for managers andadministrators, professionals and associate professionals are expected to maintainrobust growth over 2001-07, mainly attributable to the strong demand for ITpersonnel and for skilled workers to support business activities in the Mainland.Yet the trend of office automation and application of communications technologyis likely to lead to a further contraction in the demand for clerks (Annex 16).

33. Analysed by educational attainment, manpower requirement forpersons with postgraduate, first degree and sub-degree education is projected togrow by an annual average of around 8-9% during 2001-07, whereas manpowerrequirement for persons with secondary education and below is projected to fall byan annual average of around 6% (Annex 17).

- 34 -

Diagram 13 : Manpower requirement in professional servicesby occupation category, 2001 and 2007

Managersand

administrators



sales workers



and assemblers


0

20

40

60

80'000


1420

39

55

16

0.04

62

1 0.5 0.3

46

1

23

0.05 2 2

Diagram 14 : Manpower requirement in professional services by educational attainment, 2001 and 2007


Upper secondary


20

40

60

80'000


9 7

31

20

1

710

18

47

75

9 11

1

711

18

- 35 -

(e) Information technology

34. Hong Kong’s IT industry is one of the most developed in the region,with IT personnel(7) providing essential support to a wide range of economicsectors including banking and finance, trading and logistics, retail trade,manufacturing, business services, public administration, etc. They are employedeither in the IT services related firms or in the in-house IT departments ofcompanies. Taking all the IT personnel together, they accounted for around 2.1%of the total employment in 2002(8). IT manpower requirement is projected to risefrom 63 100 in 2002 to 85 000 in 2007, or at an average annual rate of 6.1%.The increase in this demand is expected to come mainly from the transport,storage and communications sector; the financing, insurance, real estate andbusiness services sector; and the community, social and personal services sector(Annex 18).

35. Analysed by occupation category, IT personnel at all levels areexpected to grow by 5-7% per annum over 2002-07, so that the occupation mix ofIT personnel is likely to remain fairly stable over the period (Annex 19).

36. Analysed by educational attainment, manpower requirement for ITpersonnel with postgraduate, first degree and sub-degree education is projected fornotable growth between 2002 and 2007, more than offsetting the envisageddecline in manpower requirement for IT personnel with lower education level(Annex 20).

(7) Statistics on IT personnel in this report are based primarily on the manpower surveyconducted by the Vocational Training Council (VTC). According to the definitionadopted by VTC, IT personnel refers to those who are engaged in principal jobs related toIT management, application systems development, e-Business/Internet services,telecommunications and networking, database, systems programming, hardware support,operation support services, IT research and product development, and IT education andtraining. End-users of IT systems and frequent users of IT packages are not included.

(8) As the manpower survey on IT personnel by VTC is not conducted on an annual basis,statistics on employment of IT personnel in 2001 are not available.

- 36 -

Diagram 15 : Manpower requirement in IT domainby occupation category, 2002 and 2007

IT/Computer managers IT/Computer professionals

IT/Computer associate professionals

IT assistants0

10

20

30

40

50

60'000


79

22

1 2

38

52

17

Diagram 16 : Manpower requirement in IT domainby educational attainment, 2002 and 2007


Upper secondary


10

20

30

40

50

60'000


1 1

98

0.134

10

32

48

47

0.12

7

12

- 37 -

37. The above projection results indicate that manpower requirements ininformation technology, tourism, professional services and financial services areall projected to grow at a significantly faster pace than overall manpowerrequirement in the economy over 2001-07, while the projected growth inmanpower requirement in trading and logistics is nearly on par with the overallpace. Also, the trading and logistics sector will continue to provide considerablejob opportunities, projected at slightly more than one-quarter of the totalemployment in 2007. As to the pattern of manpower requirement, the trend ofcontinuous shift towards workers with better education and higher skills is likelyto continue. The tourism domain is the only one with greater envisaged demandfor persons with secondary education and below over 2001-07.

Table 5 : Projected manpower requirementfor the five strategic sectors/domains

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower

requirementin 2007 Change in 2007 over 2001


Averageannual

% change

Trading and logistics 795 300 26.3 837 300 26.0 42 000 5.3 0.9

Tourism 103 600 3.4 146 400 4.5 42 800 41.3 5.9

Financial services 180 000 5.9 211 500 6.6 31 500 17.5 2.7

Professional services 126 200 4.2 156 500 4.9 30 300 24.0 3.7

Information technology* 63 100+ 2.1+ 85 000 2.6 21 900 34.7 6.1

c.f. Total employmentin the economy#

3 029 400 100.0 3 222 700 100.0 193 300 6.4 1.0

Notes : (*) With employment in the IT domain covering also IT personnel engaged in the various othereconomic sectors, apart from those directly employed by IT-related firms, there is bound tobe some overlap in the manpower requirement in the five strategic sectors/domains.

(+) This refers to the actual number and share of IT personnel in 2002, and hence the projectedchange is also between 2002 and 2007. Also see Footnotes (7) and (8).


- 38 -

Diagram 17 : Manpower requirement for the five strategicsectors/domains, 2001 and 2007

Trading and logistics

Tourism Financial services

Professional services

Information technology *

0

200

400

600

800

1000'000


795837

104

180156146 126

211

63 85

Note : (*) This refers to the actual number of IT personnel in 2002. The projected number is nevertheless for 2007. Also see Footnotes (7) and (8).

(B) Manpower supply projections

(i) Population projection

38. The total population in Hong Kong is projected to grow from6.72 million in mid-2001 to 7.20 million in mid-2007, or at an average annual rateof 1.2% over the period(9). This is faster than the average annual growth of 0.9%attained in the period between mid-1996 and mid-2001.

39. The trend of gradual ageing is expected to continue. The proportionof persons aged 15 (i.e. minimum age for a person to be included in the labourforce) and above in the total population is projected to increase further, from 84%in 2001 to 85% in 2007. So is the proportion of persons aged 65 and above, from11% to 12%. The median age is thus projected to go up, from 37 in 2001 to 39in 2007.

(9) “Hong Kong Population Projections 2002-2031”, Census and Statistics Department,May 2002.

- 39 -

Table 6 : Projection of total population#

Mid-yearpopulation

Year-on-yeargrowth rate

Proportion ofpersons aged15 and above

Proportion ofpersons aged65 and above

Median age

(million) (%) (%) (%)

2001+ 6.72 0.9 83.6 11.2 372002+ 6.79 0.9 83.9 11.4 37

2003 6.88 1.3 84.2 11.6 382004 6.96 1.2 84.5 11.7 382005 7.04 1.2 84.8 11.8 392006 7.12 1.2 85.1 11.9 392007 7.20 1.2 85.4 11.9 39

Average annualgrowth rate (%)

1.2

Notes : (#) Covering the resident population in Hong Kong.

(+) Actual figures.

Diagram 18 : Total population by age group, 2001 and 2007

2001 2007

Persons aged65 and above

12% Persons agedbelow 15

15%

Persons aged15 - 2413%



Persons agedbelow 15

16%



Persons aged65 and above

11%


- 40 -

(ii) Labour force projection

40. The total local manpower supply or local labour force, havingexcluded foreign domestic helpers and imported workers, is projected to growfrom 3.20 million in 2001 to 3.35 million in 2007, or at an average annual rate of0.8% over the period(10). This is attributable entirely to a projected increase inthe population of working age (i.e. population aged 15 and above), at an averageannual rate of 1.5%, which more than offsets the projected decline in the overallLFPR. Yet the projected growth in local labour force is slower than the averageannual growth of 1.3% attained over 1996-2001 (Annex 21).

Table 7 : Projection of local labour force

Population of working age


Locallabourforce#


(million) (%) (million) (%)

2001+ 5.58 1.5 3.20^ 1.02002+ 5.64 1.1 3.25 1.5

2003 5.74 1.7 3.26 0.42004 5.83 1.6 3.28 0.72005 5.92 1.5 3.31 0.72006 6.01 1.5 3.33 0.72007 6.10 1.5 3.35 0.6

Average annualgrowth rate (%)

1.5 0.8

Notes : (#) This excludes foreign domestic helpers and imported workers, whonumbered 227 000 and 1 600 respectively totalling 228 600 in 2001.

(+) Actual figures.

(^) The actual labour force in 2001 shown here is larger than the actualemployment shown in the other tables, by the actual numbers unemployed.

(10) “Labour Force Projections for 2002-2021” published in Hong Kong Monthly Digest ofStatistics, January 2003, Census and Statistics Department.

- 41 -

Diagram 19 : Projection of total population, population of working ageand local labour force up to 2007

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

2000

4000

6000

8000'000

Note :: (#) Actual figures.

Total population

Population of working age

Local labour force

# #

41. The following profile is seen from a more detailed analysis of thelabour force projection :

The overall LFPR is projected to decline steadily from 61.4% in 2001to 60.1% in 2007. This is mainly due to :

projected increase in the proportion of older persons aged 60and above (whose LFPR is lower than that for youngerpersons) in the population aged 15 and above, from 17.6% in2001 to 18.0% in 2007;

projected decline in the proportion of persons aged 25-29 (thegroup having the highest LFPR amongst all age groups) in thepopulation aged 15 and above, from 9.3% to 8.2% over thesame period; and

projected increase in the proportion of women (whose LFPRis lower than that for men) in the population aged 15 andabove, from 51.7% to 53.5% over the same period.

- 42 -

The LFPR for youngsters aged 15-24 is projected to decrease from44.9% in 2001 to 42.7% in 2007, owing to increasing opportunitiesfor pursuing tertiary education.

Persons in the age group of 25-29 have the highest LFPR, which isprojected to increase from 91.3% in 2001 to 92.6% in 2007. This isattributable to a projected rise in the LFPR for females from 87.0% in2001 to 89.4% in 2007, amidst improved educational attainment,marriage postponement, and increased prevalence of spinsterhoodamongst females.

If the age-sex structure of the population in 2007 is standardised tothat in 2001, the standardised overall LFPR would nevertheless edgeup from 61.4% in 2001 to 61.8% in 2007.

(iii) Projection of manpower supply by educational attainment

42. Analysed by educational attainment, local manpower supply ofworkers at almost all education levels (except matriculation, and lower secondaryand below) are projected to grow, at an average annual rate ranging from 0.4% to16.5% over 2001-07. On a broad front, the increase in manpower supplyprojected for the higher education levels, including the sub-degree, first degreeand postgraduate levels, is distinct. A combined increase by 0.22 million or at anaverage annual rate of 5.3% is projected over the period. As a result, theproportion of workers with sub-degree education and above is projected toincrease from 19% in 2001 to 25% in 2007. By contrast, a decline in manpowersupply is projected for the education levels below taken together, by 0.07 millionor at an average annual rate of 0.4% over the period. Thus in general, there isexpected to be an overall improvement in educational attainment of the localmanpower supply, given the continuous expansion in education opportunities atthe higher education levels.

43. A further examination of the projected local manpower supply byeducational attainment gives the following observations :

At lower secondary education and below, local manpower supply isprojected to decrease steadily, at an average annual rate of 1.5% over2001-07. In consequence, its share in the local labour force is

- 43 -

projected to fall from 42% in 2001 to 37% in 2007. With theavailability of better education opportunities, young people are lesslikely to stop at the lower secondary level of education and will ratherwish to proceed further. Hence the proportion of older-aged workersat this level is expected to rise. In 2007, nearly two-thirds of themwill be in the age group of 40-59, up from about 59% in 2001.

At upper secondary education, local manpower supply is projected toincrease slightly, at an average annual rate of 0.4% over 2001-07.This results in a mild decline in its share in the local labour force, byless than one percentage point to 29% in 2007. Likewise, anincrease in the proportion of older-aged workers at this level isexpected.

At the matriculation level, local manpower supply is projected todecrease at an average annual rate of 1.0% over 2001-07, resulting ina small decline in its share in the local labour force to slightly lessthan 6% in 2007. With the expanded provision of education at thesub-degree level, more of the people after completing matriculationare expected to continue their study rather than joining the labourforce.

At the craft level(11), local manpower supply is projected to surge byan annual average of 16.5% over 2001-07. Yet this increase ismagnified by the small base in 2001. Nevertheless, workers withcraft training in the local labour force should still be relatively few,with a share at below 1% in both 2001 and 2007.

At the technician level(12), local manpower supply is projected toincrease at an average annual rate of 3.6% over 2001-07. Its sharein the local labour force may hence rise modestly, to slightly above3% in 2007.

(11) Including vocational training at the craft level, which requires completion of Secondary 3as the minimum entrance qualification.

(12) Including vocational training at the diploma/certificate level which requires completion ofSecondary 5 as the minimum entrance qualification; enrolled nurse training programmes;and equivalent qualifications.

- 44 -

At the sub-degree level(13), local manpower supply is projected togrow markedly, at an average annual rate of 7.8% over 2001-07,leading to an appreciable increase in its share in the local labour forcefrom 4% in 2001 to 6% in 2007. About 40% of the manpowersupply in 2007 at the sub-degree level will be at younger age below30.

At the first degree level, local manpower supply is projected to growat an average annual rate of 2.5% over 2001-07. Its share in thelocal labour force is thus projected to rise from 12% in 2001 to 14%in 2007. Apart from the local education output, Hong Kong peoplereturning from overseas study and entrants from places other than theMainland are also major sources of manpower supply at the firstdegree level. Between 2002 and 2007, nearly three-quarters of thegraduates returning from overseas are expected to be degree holders.In the same period, more than one-third of the entrants from placesother than the Mainland are likely to be at degree level.

At the postgraduate level, local manpower supply is projected todouble in number over 2001-07, increasing at an average annual rateof 12.3%. Its share in the local labour supply is thus projected toincrease from 3% to 5% over the period. Increase in educationoutput at the postgraduate level from local institutions and morepeople returning from overseas study with postgraduate attainmentare envisaged in the coming years. A great majority of persons atthis education level will proceed to join the labour force.

(13) Including non-degree post-secondary programmes leading to the award of higher diploma,associateship, professional diploma, associate degree and endorsement certificate;registered nurse training programmes; and equivalent qualifications.

- 45 -

Table 8 : Projected manpower supply by educational attainment


Actuallabour force

in 2001

Projectedmanpower

supplyin 2007 Change in 2007 over 2001



Lower secondary and below 1 352 700 42.3 1 236 200 36.9 - 116 500 -8.6 - 1.5Upper secondary 937 800 29.3 958 900 28.6 21 000 2.2 0.4Matriculation 201 500 6.3 190 100 5.7 - 11 400 -5.7 - 1.0Craft 12 100 0.4 30 200 0.9 18 200 150.6 16.5Technician 88 800 2.8 110 100 3.3 21 300 24.0 3.6Sub-degree 127 800 4.0 201 000 6.0 73 200 57.3 7.8First degree 393 900 12.3 455 900 13.6 62 000 15.7 2.5Postgraduate 84 900 2.7 170 100 5.1 85 300 100.4 12.3

All education levels 3 199 500# 100.0 3 352 500 100.0 152 900 4.8 0.8

Notes : (#) This total figure exceeds the corresponding figure on total employment in Table 3, by theaverage number of unemployed persons in 2001.


Diagram 20 : Manpower supply by educational attainment, 2001 and 2007

1353

938

202

1289

128

394

85

959

190

30110

201

456

170

1236

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Lower

secondary

and below

Upper

secondary

Matriculation Craft Technician Sub-degree First degree Postgraduate

2001 (actual labour force)2007 (projected manpower supply)

'000

- 46 -

Post-secondary(13%)



(15%)

Diagram 21 : Actual labour force by educational attainment, 2001

Projected manpower supply by educational attainment, 2007

Matriculation6%

Craft1%


37%

Sub-degree6%

Technician3%First degree

14%

Postgraduate5%

Upper secondary29%


(19%)

Post-secondary(15%)


Postgraduate3%

Upper secondary29%

Craft0.4%


42%

Sub-degree4%

Technician3%

First degree12%

Matriculation6%

- 47 -

(C) Projected manpower resource balance

44. Matching the projections of manpower requirement and manpowersupply to reveal the projected manpower resource balance in 2007 by eighteducational attainment groups, the following can be observed :

substantial surplus of manpower supply at the lower secondary andbelow and upper secondary levels;

considerable surplus of manpower supply at the craft level;

significant shortfall of manpower supply at the matriculation level, assupply is being constrained by those proceeding to tertiary educationafter matriculation;

mild imbalance of manpower supply at the technician and sub-degreelevels;

marked shortfall of manpower supply at the first degree level; and

apparent surplus of manpower supply at the postgraduate level, yetthis is probably due to employers mostly stipulating first degree asbasic requirement for recruitment to higher hierarchy jobs.

- 48 -

+ 82 500

- 62 600

+ 15 600

- 6 100

+ 46 100

+ 133 500

+ 3 400

- 82 600

- 150 000 - 100 000 - 50 000 0 + 50 000 + 100 000 + 150 000 + 200 000

Lower secondary and below

Upper secondary

Matriculation

Craft

Technician

Sub-degree

First degree

Postgraduate

Table 9 : Projected manpower resource balanceby educational attainment

(a) (b) (c) = (a) – (b)


Projectedmanpower

supply in 2007

Projectedmanpower

requirement in 2007

Projectedmanpower resource

balance in 2007(surplus (+)/shortfall (-))

Lower secondary and below 1 236 200 1 102 700 + 133 500Upper secondary 958 900 876 400 + 82 500Matriculation 190 100 252 700 - 62 600Craft 30 200 14 600 + 15 600Technician 110 100 106 600 + 3 400Sub-degree 201 000 207 100 - 6 100First degree 455 900 538 500 - 82 600Postgraduate 170 100 124 100 + 46 100

Diagram 22 : Projected manpower resource balanceby educational attainment in 2007

Notes : (+) Surplus in manpower supply against requirement.

(-) Shortfall in manpower supply against requirement.

- 49 -

45. The substantial surplus of manpower projected at the lower end of theeducation ladder is likely to tie in with continuous upgrading in the occupationstructure. Jobs at lower levels of skill will tend to be either phased out by officeautomation or relocated to the lower cost areas outside Hong Kong. As a result,many of the people at lower education levels who used to take up the lower-skilljobs will become surplus workers in the labour market.

46. On the other hand, the large shortfall of manpower projected at theupper end of the education ladder is likely to be associated with the increasingdemand for higher skill and better educated personnel, in line with the orientationtowards a service-specialised and knowledge-based economy.

47. Yet recognising that there exists some degree of substitutabilitybetween workers at certain successive education levels (e.g. between the firstdegree and postgraduate levels, between the technician and sub-degree levels), itmay be more appropriate to condense the projected manpower resource balance in2007 into four broader educational attainment groups.

Table 10 : Projected manpower resource balanceby broad educational attainment

(a) (b) (c) = (a) – (b)

Broad educational attainment

Projectedmanpower

supply in 2007

Projectedmanpower

requirement in 2007

Projectedmanpower resource

balance in 2007(surplus (+)/shortfall (-))

Lower secondary and below 1 236 200 1 102 700 + 133 500

Upper secondary* 989 100 891 000 + 98 000

Post-secondary# 501 200 566 400 - 65 200

First degree and above~ 626 000 662 500 - 36 500

Notes : (*) Including the upper secondary and craft levels.(#) Including the matriculation, technician and sub-degree levels.(~) Including the first degree and postgraduate levels.(+) Surplus in manpower supply against requirement.(-) Shortfall in manpower supply against requirement.

- 50 -


Upper secondary *

Post-secondary #

First degree and above ~

0 50000 100000 150000 200000-50000-100000-150000

Diagram 23 : Projected manpower resource balanceby broad educational attainment in 2007

+133 500

+98 000

-65 200

-36 500

0 +50 000 +100 000 +150 000 +200 000-50 000-100 000-150 000


48. This shows even more clearly the projected surplus of manpowermostly at the lower secondary level and below, and also considerably at the uppersecondary level. Both reflect that the evolving job requirements are less infavour of persons with up to such educational attainment. On the other hand,there is a distinct projected shortfall of manpower at the post-secondary level, asdemand is being upgraded while supply is yet to catch up adequately. There isalso much projected shortfall of manpower at the degree level.

- 51 -

(D) Comparison between the 2000-round and 2003-round projections

(i) Manpower requirement

49. The 2003-round projection envisages a slower growth in manpowerrequirement over the medium term than the 2000-round projection, by an annualaverage of 1.0% up to 2007 as compared to 2.4% up to 2005. The currentlymore conservative outlook is partly attributable to the changing labour marketconditions observed over the past two years. Total employment excludingforeign domestic helpers, having rebounded to a 2.5% increase in 2000, moderatedto a 0.8% rise in 2001, and then slackened to a 1.1% decline in 2002. The Asianfinancial crisis in 1997-98 and the global economic downturn in 2001 havebrought to the fore the importance of maintaining a slim and efficient workforce,as reflected by waves of corporate downsizing and restructuring in recent years.

50. Analysed by economic sector, manpower requirement in the transport,storage and communications sector and in the financing, insurance, real estate andbusiness services sector are projected to have above-average growth rates in thepresent round, as in the last round. This is in line with the positioning of HongKong as a premier international trade and financial centre. While manpowerrequirement in construction was also projected to grow faster than the overallaverage last time, it is no longer the case now. Its growth will be restrained bythe continued decline seen in the building consents in the private sector and by theheavy scale-back in the Public Housing Programme. A new source of growth inmanpower requirement in the present round is in community, social and personalservices. Despite a continued cut-back in Civil Service employment in thecoming years, there is expected to be rising demand for various communityservices like medical and health, sanitary and education, as well as further boost insports, cultural and recreational services, leading to expanding manpowerrequirement. As to the local manufacturing sector, manpower requirement islikely to remain on a downtrend.

51. Analysed by occupation category, the projections of manpowerrequirement are broadly similar between the two rounds, with both pointing toupgrading to a higher level of skill. Thus the projected growth in requirementsfor managers and administrators, professionals and associate professionals arehigher than the overall average in both the present and the last rounds. Therequirement for service workers and shop sales workers is projected to berelatively faster than average only in the present round, upon an expanding labour

- 52 -

demand envisaged for community, social and personal services. On the otherhand, the requirements for craft and related workers and for plant and machineoperators and assemblers are projected for a slight decline in the present round, asagainst a slight increase in the last round.

52. Analysed by educational attainment, the projected manpowerrequirement for persons with first degree education and above has a faster increasein the present round than in the last round, despite a slower growth rate expectedfor the overall manpower requirement. As a result, the share for this educationlevel is projected to rise notably, from the last round’s 15.5% in 2005 to thepresent round’s 20.6% in 2007. On the other hand, the projected manpowerrequirement for persons with lower secondary education and below and withupper secondary education turns from increase to decline.

(ii) Manpower supply

53. Concurrent with a slower growth projected for manpowerrequirement, manpower supply is also projected for slower growth over themedium term in the 2003-round than in the 2000-round, by an annual average of0.8% up to 2007 as compared to 1.4% up to 2005. This is due to a smallerincrease expected for the population of working age and a steady decline in theLFPRs.

54. Analysing the local manpower supply by educational attainment,manpower supply at the post-secondary level and the first degree level and aboveis expected to increase faster than the overall average in both rounds of projection.Also, manpower supply at the first degree level and above is projected to havefaster growth in the present round than in the last round. On the other hand,manpower supply at the lower secondary level and below is projected to turn intoa decline in the present round, while manpower supply at the upper secondarylevel is projected to slow down in growth.

(iii) Manpower resource balance

55. Bringing the projected manpower requirement and manpower supplytogether, the patterns of manpower surplus and shortfall at the various levels ofeducational attainment are found to be broadly similar in the 2000 and 2003

- 53 -

rounds of projection. Yet the projected surplus in workers with upper secondaryeducation surges in the present round, notwithstanding only a small rise beingprojected for the respective supply. The projected surplus in workers with lowersecondary education and below nevertheless shrinks slightly in the present round,with the respective supply being projected to switch to a decline.

56. The shortfall in workers with first degree and above education isexpected to enlarge in the present round, despite a marked increase beingprojected for the respective supply, as the requirement for workers at that level ofeducational attainment is envisaged to expand even more. Also, the shortfall inworkers with post-secondary education is expected to decrease considerably in thepresent round, upon a slower increase being projected for the respectivemanpower requirement.


Upper secondary *

Post-secondary #

First degree and above ~

0 50000 100000 150000 200000-50000-100000-150000

last round of projection to 2005 current round of projection to 2007

Diagram 24 : Projected manpower resource balance by educational attainment, last round of projection to 2005 as compared to

present round of projection to 2007

+136 700

-31 400

0 +50 000 +100 000 +150 000 +200 000-50 000-100 000-150 000

+133 500

+22 500

+98 000

-85 500

-65 200

-36 500


- 54 -

(E) Surveys and consultations

(i) Household survey on employment concerns and training needs

57. On perceived prospects of current employment, the followingfeedback was obtained from the survey :

Amongst all the employed persons, 32% were optimistic about theprospects of their respective economic sectors. These sectors wereperceived by them to have fast to moderate growth in the next fewyears. Yet 32% anticipated only slow growth in their respectivesectors, 25% perceived no growth, and 12% foresaw somecontraction (Annex 22).

Analysed by economic sector, persons engaged in the financing,insurance, real estate and business services sector, and in thecommunity, social and personal services sector were the mostoptimistic about the prospects of their respective sectors. Thoseengaged in the construction sector were the least optimistic(Annex 22).

Analysed by occupation category, persons at the upper segment of theoccupation hierarchy, including managers and administrators,professionals and associate professionals, were more optimistic aboutthe prospects of their own occupation category than those at the lowersegment, including plant and machine operators and assemblers, craftand related workers, and workers in elementary occupations(Annex 23).

Regarding their perception about the prospects of the occupationcategories in which they were engaged, 16% were content with theprospects in the next few years, describing such prospects as verygood or good. Another 61% considered the prospects as justaverage, while the remaining 23% saw the prospects as poor or verypoor (Annex 23).

In overall terms, employed persons with usual place of work in theMainland were relatively more optimistic about the prospects of theirrespective economic sectors and occupation categories, whencompared with those who did not need to work in the Mainland.

- 55 -

Also, employed persons who were younger, those with highereducational attainment, and those with higher employment earningstended to be more sanguine about the prospects of the economicsectors and occupation categories in which they were engaged.

58. On challenges/problems being faced by employed persons, thefollowing feedback is noteworthy :

Analysed by economic sector, “contraction of business” was thechallenge/problem most commonly cited by persons engaged in themanufacturing sector, the construction sector, the wholesale, retailand import/export trades, restaurants and hotels sector, and thetransport, storage and communications sector. For those engaged inthe financing, insurance, real estate and business services sector,“keen competition amongst companies within the sector” and“corporate downsizing” were most commonly cited, while for thoseengaged in the community, social and personal services sector,“corporate downsizing” and “cost reduction” were most commonlycited (Annex 24).

Analysed by occupation category, “heavier workload” was thechallenge/problem most commonly cited by managers andadministrators, professionals and associate professionals, clerks,service workers and shop sales workers, and workers in elementaryoccupations. For craft and related workers, and plant and machineoperators and assemblers, “salary/wage cuts” was most commonlycited (Annex 25).

59. On changes in job requirement experienced in the past three years,most of the employed persons pointed to “higher intensity of work”, “jobstraddling/multi-skilling”, and “longer working hours” as the most significantchanges (Annex 26). Moreover, the following is observed amongst those whoreported changes in their job requirements :

Some 11% indicated that they were able to cope with such changescomfortably. Another 86% indicated that they could just meet thechanges, while 2% indicated inability in doing so.

- 56 -

The majority (78%) had not taken any specific measures to deal withthe changes. As to the remainder, the measures taken included :

self-learning (15%);

attending job-related training/retraining courses (5%);

on-the-job training (5%); and

search for another suitable job (2%).

60. Overall speaking, 26% of all the employed persons had been affectedby corporate restructuring since 2001. In particular, 31% of those engaged inthe construction sector, 29% in the financing, insurance, real estate and businessservices sector, and 29% in the transport, storage and communications sector hadbeen so affected. On individual occupation categories, craft and related workers(30%), and plant and machine operators and assemblers (28%) had been affectedmore than the others. When enquired about the impact brought about bycorporate restructuring, most of those affected cited “increasing work pressure”,“salary/wage cuts” and “longer working hours” as specific impacts(Annexes 27 and 28).

61. On career aspirations, the salient survey results are as follows :

Of all the economically active persons, 12% indicated a pressing needto find new jobs, with “being unemployed”, “slack work” and“salary/wage cuts” cited as their major reasons (Annex 29).

7% of all the economically active persons had plan to switch toanother economic sector in the coming year. The major reasonscited were “better opportunities in other sectors”, “hard to find job inthe current sector” and “no prospects for the current sector”. Withinthis group of people, 78% indicated a pressing need to find new jobs(Annex 30).

Nevertheless, the majority (81%) of the economically active personswere inclined to stay in their existing economic sectors in the nextthree years. The major reasons given were “do not want to change”and “greater job stability” (Annex 31).

- 57 -

About 2% of all the economically active persons planned or intendedto set up their own business in the coming year. The major reasonsquoted were “want to earn more money”, “want to have ownbusiness/want to be an employer”, “want to grasp new opportunitiesin a changing business environment” and “want to take up newchallenge”. Generally speaking, younger persons, persons withhigher educational attainment, and persons having been affected bycorporate restructuring since 2001 were more inclined to set up theirown business (Annex 32).

Amongst those with plan or intention to set up their own business, themajority (87%) planned to set up their business in Hong Kong, whilea fair proportion (13%) planned to do so in the Mainland. In termsof economic sector, the majority (63%) chose the wholesale, retailand import/export trades, restaurants and hotels sector as target sectorfor setting up their business (Annex 33).

62. On engagement in job-related business activities in the Mainland,11% of all the economically active persons reported that they had been engaged invarious job-related business activities in the Mainland in the past 12 months.Amongst them, 53% had done so owing to “engagement in work”, 32% for“attending meetings”, 29% for “engagement in business-related entertainment”,21% for “inspection of business”, and 6% for “cross-boundary travel by virtue oftheir jobs as drivers etc” (Annex 34).

63. On aspirations for working in the Mainland, only 1% of all theeconomically active persons whose usual place of work was not in the Mainland atthe time of enumeration intended to work in a job which might require them to bestationed in the Mainland for a relatively long period of time in the coming 12months. Their most commonly cited reasons for having such an intention were“better prospects of career development in the Mainland” and “easier to seek jobsin the Mainland” (Annex 35).

64. 39% of these persons had already taken action in the past six monthsto look for a job which might require them to be stationed in the Mainland for arelatively long period of time. The major action taken included “searchedthrough the Internet”, “sought assistance from friends/relatives” and“placed/answered advertisement” (Annex 36). Besides, 43% of these personsperceived that they would require skill upgrading or training/retraining in order to

- 58 -

work in the Mainland. Within this group, 40% considered that they wouldrequire training in Putonghua, while 16% felt that they would need training incomputer skills (Annex 37).

65. On job-related training/retraining courses attended in the past 12months and intention to attend training/retraining courses in the coming 12months, the following survey results are of interest :

15% of all the economically active persons had attended job-relatedtraining/retraining courses arranged by their employers (10%) and/ortaken on their own initiative (7%) in the past 12 months. Thecourses attended were mostly related to IT skills, language skills,management skills and job-specific skills (Annex 38).

Analysed by economic sector, a relatively larger proportion ofpersons engaged in the financing, insurance, real estate and businessservices sector and the community, social and personal services sectorhad attended job-related training/retraining courses in the past 12months. Analysed by occupation category, managers andadministrators, professionals and associate professionals were morelikely to have done so.

On future plan to upgrade skills, 16% of all the economically activepersons revealed plans to attend training/retraining courses in thecoming 12 months. Generally speaking, younger persons, females,and those who were more sanguine about the prospects of theeconomic sectors and occupation categories in which they wereengaged showed greater inclination to upgrade themselves throughfuture training/retraining. The courses most commonly cited wereon IT skills, language skills and management skills (Annex 39).

Analysed by economic sector, the financing, insurance, real estate andbusiness services sector had the largest proportion of persons havingplans to attend training/retraining courses in the coming 12 months,followed by the community, social and personal services sector.Analysed by occupation category, persons at the upper segment,including managers and administrators, professionals and associateprofessionals, were more eager to receive training/retraining in thecoming 12 months.

- 59 -

(ii) Establishment survey on manpower training and job skillrequirements

66. On current manpower situation, the following survey results arenoteworthy :

About 246 400 establishments, with some 2 152 500 persons engagedas at mid-2002, were reckoned to be within the scope of the survey.Analysed by employment type, the proportions of persons engaged infull-time permanent, full-time non-permanent and part-time jobs were93%, 2% and 5% respectively (Annex 40).

Of these 246 400 establishments, 4% had some 41 500 employeesrecruited from outside Hong Kong. Analysed by country/territoryof recruitment, 35% of such employees were recruited from theMainland, followed by Japan (9%), the United Kingdom (8%), andthe United States (7%) (Annex 41).

On the reasons for recruiting employees from outside Hong Kong,“employees are sent from headquarters outside Hong Kong” (32%)and “to serve clients from individual countries/territories” (29%)were most commonly cited.

On the reasons for not recruiting employees from outside Hong Kong,“employees with relevant experience and qualifications can easily berecruited in Hong Kong” (30%), “no need to recruit employees”(29%) and “employees with local experience preferred due to natureof business” (27%) were most commonly cited.

Of these 246 400 establishments, 11% had some 53 800 personsdeployed to work outside Hong Kong. Analysed bycountry/territory of deployment, 96% of such persons were deployedto work in the Mainland.

On the reasons for deploying persons to work outside Hong Kong,“for handling business operations outside Hong Kong” (54%), “HongKong persons with job-specific skills” (30%) and “for training staffoutside Hong Kong” (29%) were most commonly cited.

- 60 -

On the reasons for not deploying persons to work outside Hong Kong,“no business outside Hong Kong” (72%) and “employees outsideHong Kong are capable of handling the business operations there”(13%) were most commonly cited.

67. On future manpower requirements, the establishments surveyed heldthe following views :

Analysed by economic sector, increases in the proportion of personsengaged between mid-2002 and mid-2007 were predicted for thewholesale, retail and import/export trades, restaurants and hotels andfor financing, insurance, real estate and business services. On theother hand, decreases were predicted for manufacturing, electricityand gas, for community, social and personal services, and fortransport, storage and communications (Annex 42).

Analysed by occupation category, increases in the proportion ofpersons engaged between mid-2002 and mid-2007 were predicted forprofessionals and clerks. On the other hand, decreases werepredicted for persons in elementary occupations and for plant andmachine operators and assemblers (Annex 43).

Future manpower requirement was expected to shift towards highereducation level. Analysed by educational attainment, increases inthe proportion of persons engaged between mid-2002 and mid-2007were predicted for postgraduate, first degree, sub-degree andmatriculation education, while decreases were predicted for uppersecondary education and for lower secondary education and below(Annex 44).

68. On plans to recruit employees from the Mainland over the next fiveyears, the establishments surveyed gave the following feedback :

14% of the establishments had plans to recruit employees from theMainland over the next five years. Of these establishments, 42%would recruit professionals, and 22% would recruit managers andadministrators. As regards educational attainment, 59% preferred torecruit employees with first degree, and 10% preferred to recruitpostgraduates (Annex 45).

- 61 -

On the reasons for recruiting employees from the Mainland over thenext five years, “remuneration reason” (70%) was most commonlycited.

On the reasons for not recruiting employees from the Mainland overthe next five years, “employees can easily be recruited in HongKong” (33%), “no need in business operation” (30%) and “employeeswith local experience preferred due to nature of business” (29%) weremost commonly cited.

69. On plans to deploy persons to work in the Mainland over the nextfive years, the establishments surveyed gave the following feedback :

16% of the establishments had plans to deploy persons to work in theMainland over the next five years. Of these establishments, 72%would deploy managers and administrators, and 24% would deployprofessionals. As to educational attainment, 58% would deploypersons at first degree level (Annex 46).

On the reasons for deploying persons to work in the Mainland overthe next five years, “for training staff in the Mainland” (38%) wasmost commonly cited.

On the reasons for not deploying persons to work in the Mainlandover the next five years, “no business in the Mainland” (64%) wasmost commonly cited.

70. On business prospects over the next five years, 20% of theestablishments were “optimistic”, and another 1% were “very optimistic”. Onthe other hand, 28% of the establishments were “pessimistic”, and another 7%were “very pessimistic”. Analysed by economic sector, establishments inmanufacturing were relatively less optimistic about their business prospects.Analysed by employment size, the large establishments were more optimistic thanthe small ones (Annex 47).

71. When asked about the impact of Hong Kong’s economicrestructuring and China’s accession to WTO on their business turnover over thenext five years, 16% of the establishments predicted “some increase”, and another2% predicted “significant increase”. On the other hand, 26% of the

- 62 -

establishments envisaged “some decrease”, and another 15% envisaged“significant decrease”. Analysed by economic sector, 7% of the establishmentsin manufacturing, electricity and gas anticipated an increase in business turnoverover the next five years, while 24% of the establishments in financing, insurance,real estate and business services anticipated an increase. As to the other sectors,10-18% of the establishments anticipated an increase. Analysed by employmentsize, the large establishments were more sanguine about the impact than the smallones (Annex 48).

72. 17% of the establishments surveyed reported that they hadinvestment projects in the Mainland. Most of these establishments hadinvestment in manufacturing (61%), followed by import/export (19%), and retail(11%) (Annex 49).

73. 31% of the establishments expected that China’s accession to WTOwould bring about new business opportunities, while 63% did not think so.Analysed by economic sector, establishments in construction and in financing,insurance, real estate and business services generally held a more sanguine view,with 38% and 36% respectively anticipating greater business opportunities(Annex 50).

74. On influence to the business environment in Hong Kong over thenext five years, the following three aspects were of particular concern :

Face keener competition from enterprises in the Mainland;

Need to understand better the market and changes in investmentenvironment in the Mainland; and

More companies to relocate their business operations to the Mainland(Annex 51).

75. To cope with the changes arising from Hong Kong’s economicrestructuring and China’s accession to WTO, the establishments were asked toindicate what measures they would adopt over the next five years. Their topthree choices of measures were :

Increase the use of IT within the company;

- 63 -

Focus on the core business, and reduce the peripheral business withlower value-added; and

Upgrade the skills of existing staff (Annex 52).

76. On training plans and budget, the following views were rendered bythe establishments :

Of those establishments having employees, 13% and 11%respectively reported to have training plans and training budget fortheir employees. Analysed by employment size, the largeestablishments were generally more conscious of devising trainingplans for their employees than the medium-sized and smallestablishments (Annex 53).

Of those establishments having employees, 29% would increasetraining so as to upgrade the knowledge and skills of their employees.37% would allow their employees to attend training courses duringoffice hours. 12% had evaluated the performance of theiremployees after attending training courses (Annex 54).

By occupation category, the establishments preferred their managersand administrators to focus on enhancement of management skills,their professionals and associate professionals on IT skills, and theirclerks and their service workers and shop sales workers on languageskills (Annex 55).

As regards the mode of training, self-learning was most preferred,followed by extra-mural courses and in-house training (Annex 56).

(iii) Broad-level consultation with business, labour and relatedorganisations

77. According to feedback from these consultations, Hong Kong’seconomic restructuring and China’s accession to WTO are likely to bring aboutboth opportunities and challenges to the local economy.

- 64 -

78. On employment opportunities, professionals, managerial staff andworkers with upgraded knowledge and skills would be in a better position to grasp.For those who resisted change or failed to pick up new skills, their employmentprospects would be less favourable. Furthermore, more Hong Kong residentswere expected to go for work in the Mainland, where more employmentopportunities would be available for those with the necessary language skills, withMainland experience, and with desire to work across the boundary.

79. On prospects of individual economic sectors, the main viewsgathered were as follows :

The sectors likely to prosper in the coming years would be thosewhich were more knowledge-based, more technology intensive andwith higher value-added content. The more promising ones wouldinclude information technology, logistics, high technology, financialservices, tourism and e-commerce.

On the other hand, the sectors likely to decline in significance wouldbe the traditional and more labour intensive ones, such asmanufacturing, and those support services which are likely to beoutrun by modern technology.

80. On outlook of the local economy, the respondents envisaged that thiswould depend largely on the Mainland’s economic development after China’saccession to WTO and also on the global economic performance, including inparticular the growth tempo in the United States. While the respondents generallyexpected the local economy to improve over the medium term, they wereconcerned that shortage of talent, high labour cost and high property prices coulddiscourage investment, which could in turn reduce employment opportunities inHong Kong.

81. On outlook for the local workforce, the respondents generallyexpected that there would be continuing imbalance between manpowerrequirement and manpower supply, and some were concerned that the skillmismatch would intensify. Judging from the future job opportunities, higher skilland better educated workers would be the main beneficiaries. On the other hand,those with low skill and low educational attainment would be harder hit. Thesituation would be aggravated with more companies relocating their supportservice operations to the Mainland and elsewhere, resulting in less clerical and

- 65 -

other junior positions in the local labour market. Some employee groups wereparticularly wary of unemployment and wage cuts that were likely to be faced bythe lower skill and lesser educated workers. Moreover, they were worried thatolder aged workers would find it increasingly difficult to secure jobs. Somerespondents stressed the need for the local workforce to be more flexible andadaptable in order to cope with the emerging changes.

82. The respondents suggested a variety of measures to be taken byemployees, employers and the Government to gear in with the new jobrequirements stemming from economic restructuring. They all pointed out thatcontinuous learning and training would help the local workforce to re-orienttowards the new employment opportunities. They considered that employersshould facilitate the training of their employees and encourage their employees topursue further education opportunities. Moreover, they urged the Government totake a more pro-active role to facilitate enterprise and manpower development,through such measures as :

investing in infrastructure and attracting foreign investment;

providing financial and technical support to small and medium-sizedestablishments;

streamlining government procedures to make them morebusiness-friendly;

formulating long-term manpower policies and promoting life-longlearning;

allocating more resources for training and retraining and developing acompetence-based qualification framework;

implementing sound education policies to prepare young people for adynamic, knowledge-based society; and

helping to create jobs by revitalising the manufacturing industry aswell as promoting those industries that could absorb more lower-skilllabour, such as tourism, logistics, transportation and environmentalprotection.

- 66 -

Concluding remarks

83. In the present assessment, the growth in overall labour demand overthe medium-term period to 2007 is projected to be slightly faster than that in thepast five years, while the growth in overall labour supply is projected to slowdown, so that there is likely to be a gradually improved overall manpowerresource balance. The growth in labour demand is premised on a more steadygrowth in the overall economy after the current setback, underpinned by enlargedbusiness potential upon China’s accession to WTO and ever closer economicinterface between Hong Kong and the Mainland. Extension of labour demandbrought about by Hong Kong’s accentuating business activities in the Mainland isgoing to receive greater interest. Yet concurrently, an increasingly competitiveinternational business environment brought about by globalisation andtechnological advance will aggravate the mismatch between labour demand andsupply, making effective adaptation in the manpower structure all the moreessential.

84. Both the quantitative analysis and the qualitative findings in thisexercise indicate that labour demand will shift more and more towards the highereducation level, with an envisaged significant excess in manpower requirementover manpower supply mainly for persons with post-secondary education andabove. Moreover, workers with higher educational attainment and at the uppersegment of the occupation hierarchy are generally more optimistic about their jobprospect. On the other hand, workers with lesser education and skill are usuallyfound to be less able to cope with changes in manpower demand. This poses animperative task to the Government and the education and training institutions inregard to manpower planning and provision, in order to strive for an optimal andefficient use of the available human resources and to underpin economic growth.

85. The results from this round of manpower projection, as with thosefrom the last round, should be viewed against the dynamic interactions in thelabour market. As such, the various projection results are not that hard and fast,and may better be seen as indicating pressures or tendencies rather than absolutepositions. A number of further considerations in this light are relevant.

86. First, the projection of manpower requirement is done in a mannerthat is free from any constraint from the manpower supply. In other words, it isdone on the premise that the future labour supply could cope with thecorresponding future labour demand. If the size and composition of the locallabour force is inadequate for meeting the demand, there will be increased

- 67 -

vacancies in overall terms and probably more so for particular segments withrather tighter demand, such that some of the labour demand would be left unmet.On the other hand, if the size and composition of the local labour force outstripsthe demand, there will be increased unemployment in overall terms and perhapsalso structurally, reflecting that some of the labour supply would be left idle.Within the overall size, it is important to enhance the adaptability of the locallabour force so as to fit the changing labour market conditions and to reap the fullbenefit of evolving business opportunities.

87. Secondly, where there are prevailing manpower surpluses or shortfalls,the wage mechanism in the labour market will set in towards narrowing themanpower resource imbalance, yet the process of adjustment may take some time.With a manpower shortfall, the higher wages thus entailed in the segmentconcerned will imply higher cost of doing business, with ensuing implications forthe cost competitiveness of business. With a manpower surplus, on the otherhand, the lower wages thus ensued will imply lesser employment income in thesegment concerned.

88. Thirdly, a certain degree of substitutability may exist betweenworkers at successive education or skill levels, especially in those segments wheresuitable on-the-job training is provided or where sufficient work experience can beaccumulated. Such substitutability may help to even out imbalances betweendifferent related segments as business conditions vary.

89. Fourthly, there is likely to be complementarity from the bettereducated and higher skill workers towards the lesser educated and lower skillworkers. A manpower shortage at the upper spectrum of the labour market, if notduly addressed, could hence extend to jeopardise employment opportunities at themiddle and lower spectrum. This is one key aspect of strategic importanceunderlying the higher level manpower that is everywhere so much sought after.

90. The present projection exercise has taken full account of the resultsfrom quantitative projection as well as feedback from the qualitative surveysconducted on households and business establishments and from the consultationswith relevant organisations. As for SARS, it is not deemed to exert any distinctimpact on the projected manpower requirement over the medium-term period to2007, since it should have had nil influence on the base year 2001, and since itseffect, being regarded as short-term and one-off in nature, may not extend so far asto impinge on the projection benchmark year 2007. In general, recognising the

- 68 -

economic uncertainties that may emerge from time to time on both the externaland domestic fronts, as well as the technical margin of uncertainty with aprojection exercise of this nature, it is advisable to have periodic review andupdate of the projection, in order to keep track of the evolving economic situationand developments in the labour market.

------------------------------

Annex 1


List of associated reports

(A) 2001-based manpower requirement projection by economic sector, by theCensus and Statistics Department.

(B) 2001-based manpower requirement projection by occupation category andeducational attainment within economic sector, by the Education andManpower Bureau.

(C) 2001-based manpower supply projection by educational attainment, by theEducation and Manpower Bureau.

(D) 2001-based manpower projection for trading and logistics up to 2007, by theEconomic Analysis Division in collaboration with the Census and StatisticsDepartment and the Education and Manpower Bureau.

(E) 2001-based manpower projection for tourism up to 2007, by the EconomicAnalysis Division in collaboration with the Census and Statistics Departmentand the Education and Manpower Bureau.

(F) 2001-based manpower projection for financial services up to 2007, by theEconomic Analysis Division in collaboration with the Census and StatisticsDepartment and the Education and Manpower Bureau.

(G) 2001-based manpower projection for professional services up to 2007, by theEconomic Analysis Division in collaboration with the Census and StatisticsDepartment and the Education and Manpower Bureau.

(H) 2001-based manpower projection for the information technology domain up to2007, by the Economic Analysis Division in collaboration with the Censusand Statistics Department and the Education and Manpower Bureau.

(I) Thematic household survey report no. 13 : employment concerns and trainingneeds of the labour force, by the Census and Statistics Department.

(J) 2002 establishment survey on manpower training and job skills requirements,by the Census and Statistics Department.

(K) Report on a broad-level consultation with business, labour and relatedorganisations, by the Labour Department.

Annex 2

Projected manpower requirementby more detailed economic sector/sub-sector in 2007

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower


Economic sector/sub-sector Number % share Number % share Number % change


Agriculture and fishing 11 000 0.4 8 400 0.3 -2 600 -23.4 -4.3Mining and quarrying 200 * 100 * -100 -60.2 -14.2Manufacturing 212 500 7.0 151 200 4.7 -61 300 -28.9 -5.5

Textiles and wearingapparel

59 200 2.0 34 400 1.1 -24 800 -41.9 -8.7

Other manufacturingindustries

153 400 5.1 116 800 3.6 -36 600 -23.8 -4.4

Electricity, gas and water 13 600 0.4 12 600 0.4 -1 000 -7.2 -1.2Construction 298 500 9.9 307 600 9.5 9 100 3.0 0.5Wholesale, retail and

import/export trades,restaurants and hotels

1 049 600 34.6 1 084 300 33.6 34 600 3.3 0.5

Wholesale and retail trades 303 200 10.0 311 600 9.7 8 400 2.8 0.5Import/export trade 518 800 17.1 529 200 16.4 10 400 2.0 0.3Restaurants and hotels 227 600 7.5 243 500 7.6 15 900 7.0 1.1


362 400 12.0 417 100 12.9 54 700 15.1 2.4

Transport and storage 307 800 10.2 347 700 10.8 39 800 12.9 2.0Communications 54 600 1.8 69 500 2.2 14 900 27.2 4.1

Financing, insurance, realestate and business services

489 900 16.2 585 500 18.2 95 500 19.5 3.0

Financing 139 900 4.6 154 900 4.8 15 000 10.7 1.7Insurance 40 100 1.3 56 500 1.8 16 500 41.1 5.9Real estate 97 300 3.2 112 200 3.5 14 900 15.4 2.4Business services 212 700 7.0 261 800 8.1 49 100 23.1 3.5


591 600 19.5 655 900 20.4 64 300 10.9 1.7

Community and socialservices

448 400 14.8 493 200 15.3 44 800 10.0 1.6

Recreational, cultural andpersonal services

143 100 4.7 162 700 5.0 19 500 13.6 2.2

All economic sectors# 3 029 400 100.0 3 222 700 100.0 193 300 6.4 1.0

Notes : (*) Less than 0.05%.



Source : 2001-based Manpower Requirement Projection by Economic Sector, Census and Statistics Department.

Annex 3

(A) Top 10 highest economic sectors ranked by absolute increase in manpowerrequirement over 2001-2007

Manpower requirement (No.)

Rank Economic sector2001

(actual)2007

(projected)

Projectedincrease

in number

1. Business services 212 700 261 800 49 1002. Non-Chinese restaurants 97 200 122 900 25 7003. Construction (excluding on-site manual

workers)218 200 242 800 24 600

4. Land transport 202 000 226 100 24 1005. Education services and research institutes 136 100 157 900 21 8006. Insurance 40 100 56 500 16 5007. Medical and health services 83 500 98 500 15 1008. Real estate 97 300 112 200 14 9009. Sanitary services 40 700 53 000 12 300

10. Import/export trade 518 800 529 200 10 400

Total 1 646 500 1 861 000 214 400

(B) Top 10 highest economic sectors ranked by growth rate of manpower requirement over2001-2007

Rank Economic sector Manpower requirement (No.)

2001(actual)

2007(projected)

Projectedaverage

annual growthrate (%)

1. Insurance 40 100 56 500 5.92. Communications (other than

telecommunications)21 400 30 000 5.8

3. Sanitary services 40 700 53 000 4.54. Non-Chinese restaurants 97 200 122 900 4.05. Other sports, cultural and recreational services 29 200 36 800 4.06. Business services 212 700 261 800 3.57. Services incidental to transport 45 000 54 400 3.28. Telecommunications and internet services 33 200 39 400 2.99. Medical and health services 83 500 98 500 2.8

10. Hotels and boarding houses 29 000 33 900 2.6

Total 631 900 787 300 3.7


Source : 2001-based Manpower Requirement Projection by Economic Sector, Census and StatisticsDepartment.

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.4}

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3)(2

4.6)

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}(1

3.9)

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5){1

.2}

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8)(2

0.4)

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}(0

.1)

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){-

1.7}

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)(4

.5)

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3}(1

.7)

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){-

2.5}

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3)(1

9.5)

{1.0

}(1

00.0

)(1

00.0

){1

.7}

Ove

rall

283

900

314

600

30

800

191

500

234

500

43

000

583

000

737

200

154

300

586

500

515

100

- 71

400

430

800

461

700

31

000

9 7

00 6

600

- 3

100

291

800

278

900

- 12

900

235

100

225

500

- 9

600

417

100

448

300

31

200

3 0

29 4

00 3

222

700

193

300

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)(9

.8)

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}(6

.3)

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){3

.4}

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2)(2

2.9)

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}(1

9.4)

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0){-

2.1}

(14.

2)(1

4.3)

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}(0

.3)

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){-

6.2}

(9.6

)(8

.7)

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8}(7

.8)

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){-

0.7}

(13.

8)(1

3.9)

{1.2

}(1

00.0

)(1

00.0

){1

.0}

Not

es:

(1)

Fig

ures

may

not

add

up

exac

tly to

the

tota

l due

to ro

undi

ng.

(2)

Fi

gure

s in

2001

are

est

imat

ed fi

gure

s, w

hile

figu

res i

n 20

07 a

re p

roje

cted

figu

res.

(

3)

Smal

l fig

ures

may

be

subj

ect t

o ve

ry la

rge

estim

atio

n / p

roje

ctio

n er

ror.

(4)

Fi

gure

s in

( ) d

enot

e pe

rcen

tage

shar

es o

f ind

ivid

ual o

ccup

atio

n ca

tego

ries a

mon

gst i

ndiv

idua

l eco

nom

ic se

ctor

s.

(

5)

Figu

res i

n {

} de

note

pro

ject

ed a

vera

ge a

nnua

l rat

es o

f cha

nge.

(6)

Fi

gure

s exc

lude

fore

ign

dom

estic

hel

pers

.

(

-)

Zer

o fig

ure.

(#)

Le

ss th

an 0

.05.

(*)

Le

ss th

an 5

0.

(

@)

With

in ±

50.

(̂)

With

in ±

0.05

.

Econ

omic

sect

or

Fina

ncin

g, in

sura

nce,

real

esta

te a

nd b

usin

ess s

ervi

ces

Annex 4

Who

lesa

le, r

etai

l and

impo

rt/ e

xpor

t tra

des,

rest

aura

nts

and

hote

ls

Tran

spor

t, st

orag

e an

dco

mm

unic

atio

ns

Com

mun

ity, s

ocia

l and

pers

onal

serv

ices

Man

pow

er R

equi

rem

ent b

y O

ccup

atio

n C

ateg

ory

and

Edu

catio

nal A

ttain

men

t, 20

01 a

nd 2

007

Educ

atio

nal a

ttain

men

tLo

wer

seco

ndar

y an

d be

low

Upp

er se

cond

ary

Mat

ricul

atio

nC

raft

Tech

nici

anSu

b-de

gree

Firs

t deg

ree

Post

grad

uate

Ove

rall

2001

2007

Diff

eren

ce20

0120

07D

iffer

ence

2001

2007

Diff

eren

ce20

0120

07D

iffer

ence

2001

2007

Diff

eren

ce20

0120

07D

iffer

ence

2001

2007

Diff

eren

ce20

0120

07D

iffer

ence

2001

2007

Diff

eren

ce

Man

ager

s and

adm

inis

trato

rs59

600

50 8

00 -8

800

71 5

0064

700

-6 9

0025

200

27 7

002

500

800

1 00

0 2

007

800

7 60

0 -

200

16 8

0022

300

5 50

077

600

104

600

27 0

0024

600

36 1

0011

500

283

900

314

600

30 8

00(2

1.0)

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1){-

2.6}

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2)(2

0.5)

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7}(8

.9)

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){1

.6}

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.3)

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.7)

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){-

0.3}

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.1)

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7.3)

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2){5

.1}

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)(1

1.5)

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}(1

00.0

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00.0

){1

.7}

Prof

essi

onal

s-

- -

4 50

03

500

-1 0

003

200

2 70

0 -

500

--

- 5

400

4 00

0 -1

400

16 6

0017

400

900

121

900

147

900

26 0

0040

100

59 1

0019

000

191

500

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43 0

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.5)

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9}(1

.7)

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){-

2.9}

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.8)

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){-

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)(7

.4)

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}(6

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1){3

.3}

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9)(2

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00.0

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00.0

){3

.4}

Ass

ocia

te p

rofe

ssio

nals

38 1

0031

900

-6 2

0021

4 60

020

1 90

0 -1

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066

800

79 8

0013

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3 50

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39 3

0044

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071

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126

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54 7

0013

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086

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0027

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0058

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073

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015

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0(6

.5)

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){-

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8)(2

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0}(1

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8){3

.0}

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}(6

.7)

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){2

.3}

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Cle

rks

114

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91 6

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.0)

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(100

.0)

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.0)

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1}

239

700

229

200

-10

500

146

500

159

100

12 7

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43 7

0017

900

700

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- 4

900

7 50

02

600

3 70

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09

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004

400

200

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9 20

06

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00 5

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.0)

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ft an

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late

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185

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000

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01

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@1

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Elem

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cupa

tions

348

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000

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0054

100

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0029

200

11 3

0020

400

9 00

0 6

00 7

00 1

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001

300

600

500

900

400

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044

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}

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01

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0010

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020

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207

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0037

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053

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015

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080

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124

100

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003

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2){-

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8)(2

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){3

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7){6

.0}

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.8)

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}(1

00.0

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00.0

){1

.0}

Not

es:

(1)

F

igur

es m

ay n

ot a

dd u

p ex

actly

to th

e to

tal d

ue to

roun

ding

.

(

2)

Fig

ures

in 2

001

are

estim

ated

figu

res,

whi

le fi

gure

s in

2007

are

pro

ject

ed fi

gure

s.

(

3)

Sm

all f

igur

es m

ay b

e su

bjec

t to

very

larg

e es

timat

ion

/ pro

ject

ion

erro

r.

(

4)

Fig

ures

in (

) den

ote

perc

enta

ge sh

ares

of i

ndiv

idua

l edu

catio

nal a

ttain

men

ts a

mon

gst i

ndiv

idua

l occ

upat

ion

cate

gorie

s.

(

5)

Fig

ures

in {

} d

enot

e pr

ojec

ted

aver

age

annu

al ra

tes o

f cha

nge.

(6)

F

igur

es e

xclu

de fo

reig

n do

mes

tic h

elpe

rs.

(-)

Z

ero

figur

e.

(

#)

Les

s tha

n 0.

05.

(@

) W

ithin

±50

.

(

^)

With

in ±

0.05

.

Annex 5

Occ

upat

ion

cate

gory

Serv

ice w

orke

rs a

nd sh

op sa

les

wor

kers

Skill

ed ag

ricul

tura

l and

fish

ery

wor

kers

Plan

t and

mac

hine

ope

rato

rsan

d as

sem

bler

s

Annex 6

Projected manpower requirementfor trading and logistics in 2007

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower


Number Number Number % change


Trading and logistics 795 300 837 300 42 000 5.3 0.9

Of which :

(a) Trading 591 300 601 700 10 400 1.8 0.3

- Import/export trade 518 800 529 200 10 400 2.0 0.3

- Wholesale trade 72 500 72 500 0.0 0.0 0.0

(b) Logistics 204 000 235 600 31 600 15.5 2.4

- Freight transport 177 300 199 700 22 300 12.6 2.0

- Storage 5 300 5 900 700 12.6 2.0

- Miscellaneouscommunicationservices

21 400 30 000 8 600 40.3 5.8

c.f. Total employment in theeconomy (net of foreigndomestic helpers)

3 029 400 3 222 700 193 300 6.4 1.0



Annex 7


by occupation category

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Managers andadministrators 126 700 15.9 143 700 17.2 17 000 13.4 2.1

Professionals 17 400 2.2 21 900 2.6 4 600 26.3 4.0


Clerks 277 700 34.9 234 100 28.0 -43 600 -15.7 -2.8

Service workers andshop sales workers 11 000 1.4 10 500 1.3 -400 -3.9 -0.7

Craft and related workers 13 100 1.6 13 900 1.7 700 5.6 0.9

Plant and machineoperators andassemblers 90 700 11.4 102 400 12.2 11 700 12.9 2.0

Elementary occupations 78 500 9.9 74 600 8.9 -3 900 -5.0 -0.8

Overall 795 300 100.0 837 300 100.0 42 000 5.3 0.9


Source : 2001-based Manpower Requirement Projection by Occupation Category and EducationalAttainment within Economic Sector, Education and Manpower Bureau.

Annex 8


by educational attainment

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Postgraduate 12 600 1.6 18 800 2.2 6 200 49.1 6.9

First degree 95 100 12.0 144 900 17.3 49 800 52.3 7.3

Sub-degree 31 100 3.9 71 500 8.5 40 400 130.1 14.9

Technician 26 600 3.3 32 600 3.9 6 000 22.5 3.4

Craft 2 000 0.3 2 000 0.2 # -1.1 -0.2

Matriculation 66 300 8.3 78 100 9.3 11 800 17.8 2.8

Upper secondary 326 700 41.1 280 700 33.5 -46 000 -14.1 -2.5

Lower secondary andbelow 234 900 29.5 208 800 24.9 -26 100 -11.1 -1.9

Overall 795 300 100.0 837 300 100.0 42 000 5.3 0.9

Notes : (#) Change in number being less than 50.



Annex 9

Projected manpower requirement for tourism in 2007

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Tourism 103 600 146 400 42 800 41.3 5.9

Of which :

(a) Inbound tourism 80 500 118 900 38 400 47.8 6.7

Retail trade 27 500 44 400 16 900 61.6 8.3

Hotels and boardinghouses

21 000 27 000 5 900 28.2 4.2

Restaurants 19 500 32 500 13 000 66.8 8.9

Cross-boundary passengertransport

5 900 6 900 1 000 16.8 2.6

Other personal services 6 600 8 200 1 600 23.8 3.6

(b) Outbound tourism 23 100 27 500 4 400 19.0 2.9

Travel agents and airlinetickets agents

16 800 21 300 4 400 26.4 4.0

Cross-boundarypassenger transport

6 300 6 200 -100 -0.9 -0.2

c.f Total employment in theeconomy (net offoreign domestichelpers)

3 029 400 3 222 700 193 300 6.4 1.0



Annex 10

Projected manpower requirementfor tourism in 2007


Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower





Professionals 1 000 1.0 1 600 1.1 500 50.3 7.0


Clerks 15 700 15.1 17 900 12.3 2 300 14.7 2.3

Service workers and shopsales workers 52 300 50.5 76 600 52.3 24 300 46.4 6.6

Craft and related workers 3 000 2.9 3 700 2.6 800 25.6 3.9

Plant and machine operatorsand assemblers 6 200 5.9 6 700 4.6 500 8.5 1.4

Elementary occupations 10 500 10.2 14 300 9.8 3 800 36.3 5.3

Overall 103 600 100.0 146 400 100.0 42 800 41.3 5.9

Note : Figures may not add up to exactly to the total due to rounding.


Annex 11

Projected manpower requirementfor tourism in 2007


Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Postgraduate 600 0.6 1 100 0.8 500 85.9 10.9

First degree 7 100 6.8 11 700 8.0 4 700 66.0 8.8

Sub-degree 2 100 2.1 5 700 3.9 3 600 168.3 17.9

Technician 2 500 2.4 4 000 2.8 1 500 60.8 8.2

Craft 300 0.3 400 0.3 100 40.7 5.9

Matriculation 7 300 7.1 14 600 9.9 7 200 98.5 12.1

Upper secondary 36 700 35.5 49 300 33.7 12 600 34.4 5.0

Lower secondary and below 46 900 45.3 59 400 40.6 12 500 26.7 4.0

Overall 103 600 100.0 146 400 100.0 42 800 41.3 5.9



Annex 12

Projection of manpower requirementfor financial services in 2007

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Financial services 180 000 211 500 31 500 17.5 2.7

Of which :

(a) Banks 77 400 82 000 4 700 6.0 1.0

(b) Investment and holdingcompanies; stock,commodity andbullion brokers; andmiscellaneousfinancial services

62 500 72 900 10 400 16.6 2.6

(c) Insurance 40 100 56 500 16 500 41.1 5.9


3 029 400 3 222 700 193 300 6.4 1.0



Annex 13

Projected manpower requirementfor financial services in 2007


Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower





Professionals 11 800 6.5 16 200 7.6 4 400 37.4 5.4


Clerks 60 700 33.7 52 900 25.0 -7 800 -12.8 -2.3

Service workers and shopsales workers 200 0.1 100 0.1 -100 -33.3 -6.5

Craft and related workers 400 0.2 400 0.2 # -0.7 -0.1

Plant and machine operatorsand assemblers 1 000 0.6 800 0.4 -300 -26.4 -5.0

Elementary occupations 4 200 2.4 3 600 1.7 -600 -15.0 -2.7

Overall 180 000 100.0 211 500 100.0 31 500 17.5 2.7

Notes : (#) Change in number being less than 50.



Annex 14

Projected manpower requirementfor financial services in 2007by educational attainment

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Postgraduate 12 500 6.9 19 300 9.1 6 800 54.4 7.5

First degree 43 700 24.3 67 600 32.0 24 000 54.9 7.6

Sub-degree 9 100 5.1 18 400 8.7 9 300 102.6 12.5

Technician 6 100 3.4 6 600 3.1 500 8.1 1.3

Craft 300 0.2 500 0.2 200 56.1 7.7

Matriculation 21 500 11.9 26 600 12.6 5 100 23.9 3.6

Upper secondary 70 200 39.0 59 600 28.2 -10 600 -15.1 -2.7

Lower secondary and below 16 700 9.3 12 900 6.1 -3 800 -22.7 -4.2

Overall 180 000 100.0 211 500 100.0 31 500 17.5 2.7



Annex 15

Projected manpower requirementfor professional services in 2007

Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Professional services 126 200 156 500 30 300 24.0 3.7

Of which :

(a) Legal services 15 500 20 500 5 000 32.3 4.8

(b) Accounting, auditing andbookkeeping services

17 100 22 400 5 300 31.0 4.6

(c) Information technology relatedservices

27 100 37 600 10 500 38.6 5.6

(d) Engineering services (notrelated to construction andreal estate activities) andbusiness management andconsultancy services

27 800 31 300 3 500 12.5 2.0

(e) Advertising and related services 19 400 22 500 3 000 15.6 2.4

(f) Architectural, surveying andproject engineering servicesrelated to construction andreal estate activities

19 200 22 300 3 000 15.7 2.5


3 029 400 3 222 700 193 300 6.4 1.0



Annex 16



Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower





Professionals 39 100 31.0 54 800 35.0 15 700 40.1 5.8


Clerks 23 200 18.3 16 400 10.5 -6 700 -29.0 -5.5

Service workers and shopsales workers # * # * # -12.9 -2.3

Craft and related workers 1 300 1.0 900 0.6 -400 -32.2 -6.3

Plant and machineoperators andassemblers 500 0.4 300 0.2 -200 -44.1 -9.2

Elementary occupations 1 800 1.5 2 200 1.4 400 19.8 3.1

Overall 126 200 100.0 156 500 100.0 30 300 24.0 3.7

Notes : (*) Share of less than 0.05%.

(#) Number involved being less than 50.



Annex 17



Actualemployment

in 2001

Projectedmanpower




Postgraduate 10 800 8.6 18 200 11.7 7 400 68.9 9.1

First degree 47 200 37.4 75 300 48.2 28 200 59.7 8.1

Sub-degree 11 200 8.9 18 000 11.5 6 800 60.9 8.3

Technician 7 200 5.7 7 000 4.5 -200 -3.0 -0.5

Craft 600 0.4 600 0.4 100 14.1 2.2

Matriculation 9 300 7.3 10 200 6.5 900 10.2 1.6

Upper secondary 31 300 24.8 19 900 12.7 -11 400 -36.3 -7.2

Lower secondary and below 8 700 6.9 7 100 4.5 -1 600 -18.1 -3.3

Overall 126 200 100.0 156 500 100.0 30 300 24.0 3.7



Annex 18

Projection of manpower requirementfor information technology (IT) domain in 2007

Actualemployment

in 2002

Projectedmanpower




All IT personnel+ 63 100 85 000 21 900 34.7 6.1

Of whom, in :

(a) Manufacturing 2 500 3 100 600 23.1 4.2

(b) Electricity, gas and water 400 300 -100 -16.9 -3.6

(c) Construction 400 400 # 1.4 0.3

(d) Wholesale, retail andimport/export trades,restaurants and hotels

19 200 20 300 1 100 5.8 1.1

(e) Transport, storage andcommunications

4 000 7 000 3 000 76.2 12.0

(f) Financing, insurance, realestate and business services

27 200 39 400 12 200 44.8 7.7

(g) Community, social andpersonal services

9 500 14 500 5 000 52.9 8.9

c.f. Total employment in theeconomy (net of foreigndomestic helpers)*

3 029 400[2 996 500]

3 222 700 193 300[226 100]

6.4[7.5]

1.0[1.5]

Notes : (+) Statistics on IT personnel are based on the respective manpower survey conducted by theVocational Training Council (VTC). As the survey is not conducted on an annual basis,statistics on employment of IT personnel in 2001 are not available.

(#) Change in number being less than 50.

(*) Figures not in square brackets refer to total employment in 2001, and hence the projectedchange in overall manpower requirement is for the period 2001 to 2007. Figures in squarebrackets refers to total employment in 2002, and hence the projected change in overallmanpower requirement is for the period 2002 to 2007.



Annex 19

Projected manpower requirementfor IT domain+ in 2007by occupation category

Actualemployment

in 2002

Projectedmanpower




IT/Computer managers 7 300 11.6 9 500 11.1 2 200 29.6 5.3

IT/Computer professionals 37 600 59.6 52 100 61.3 14 500 38.6 6.7

IT/Computer associateprofessionals 17 100 27.0 21 800 25.7 4 700 27.8 5.0

IT assistants 1 200 1.8 1 600 1.9 500 39.3 6.9

Overall 63 100 100.0 85 000 100.0 21 900 34.7 6.1




Annex 20

Projected manpower requirementfor IT domain+ in 2007


Actualemployment

in 2002

Projectedmanpower




Postgraduate 7 300 11.5 12 300 14.5 5 000 69.0 11.1

First degree 31 800 50.4 48 000 56.5 16 100 50.7 8.5

Sub-degree 7 200 11.4 10 400 12.3 3 300 45.6 7.8

Technician 3 400 5.4 2 400 2.8 -1 000 -30.3 -7.0

Craft 100 0.1 100 0.1 # -26.7 -6.0

Matriculation 3 800 6.1 3 700 4.4 -100 -2.9 -0.6

Upper secondary 8 800 14.0 7 500 8.8 -1 300 -15.0 -3.2

Lower secondary and below 600 1.0 600 0.7 -100 -9.9 -2.1

Overall 63 100 100.0 85 000 100.0 21 900 34.7 6.1


(#) Change in number being less than 50.



Annex 21

Population and labour force projections to 2007

2001^ 2002^ 2007

Total population* (No.) 6 682 700 6 732 000 7 143 300

Population of working age# (No.) 5 579 200 5 641 400 6 095 600

Labour force participation rate (LFPR) 61.4% 61.8% 60.1%

- Male 72.9% 72.5% 71.1% - Female 50.7% 52.0% 50.4%

Total labour force (No.) 3 427 100 3 487 900 3 660 500

- Male 1 965 200 1 964 600 2 017 100 - Female 1 461 900 1 523 300 1 643 400

Local labour force+ (No.) 3 198 400 3 246 900 3 350 000

- Male 1 959 800 1 959 400 2 010 300 - Female 1 238 600 1 287 500 1 339 700

Standardised LFPR@ 61.4% 62.1% 61.8%

Notes : (^) Actual figures.

(*) Referring to total land-based non-institutional population.

(#) Referring to the land-based non-institutional population aged 15 and above.

(+) Referring to total labour force excluding foreign domestic helpers and imported workers,as representing local manpower supply.

(@) Computed by using the sex-age distribution of the 2001 land-based non-institutionalpopulation aged 15 and above as standard.


Source : 2001-based Labour Force Projection, Census and Statistics Department.

Annex 22

Percentage distribution of employed persons by perceived prospects of theeconomic sector in which they were engaged and by economic sector

Perceived prospects of the economic sector engaged :

Source : Thematic Household Survey Report No. 13 : Employment Concerns and Training Needs ofthe Labour Force, Census and Statistics Department.

manufacturing contruction wholesale transport financing community allManufacturing Construction Wholesale,retail and

import/exporttrades,

restaurantsand hotels

Transport,storage and

communications


andbusinessservices


All employedpersons

Fast growth

Moderate growth

Slow growth

No growth

Contraction

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Annex 23

Percentage distribution of employed persons by perceived prospects of theoccupation category in which they were engaged and by occupation category

Perceived prospects of the occupation category engaged :


manager clerk service worker craft plant element allManagers andadministrators,professionalsand associateprofessionals

Clerks Serviceworkers

andshop salesworkers

Craft andrelatedworkers

Plant andmachineoperators

andassemblers


All employedpersons

Very good

Good

Average

Poor

Very poor

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Annex 24

Employed persons by major challenge/problem being faced by the economicsector in which they were engaged and by economic sector

Major challenge/problem beingfaced by the economic sector engaged

Corporatedownsizing

Contractionof business

Costreduction,including

salary/wage cuts

Keencompetitionwithin sector

All persons in theeconomic sector

Economic sector No. of persons ('000)

Manufacturing 112.3(30.6%)

148.9(40.6%)

82.4(22.4%)

92.9(25.3%)

367.3

Construction 102.8(33.0%)

127.2(40.8%)

119.1(38.2%)

77.8(25.0%)

311.8

Wholesale, retail andimport/export trades,restaurants and hotels

258.4(32.0%)

331.6(41.1%)

207.6(25.7%)

272.0(33.7%)

807.9


124.5(32.8%)

140.8(37.1%)

104.5(27.6%)

123.5(32.6%)

379.2

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

171.6(42.1%)

77.3(19.0%)

106.0(26.0%)

172.3(42.3%)

407.4


264.7(33.5%)

70.9(9.0%)

264.2(33.4%)

108.3(13.7%)

790.9

Others 5.2(33.5%)

3.5(22.8%)

5.3(34.6%)

3.0(19.6%)

15.4

Overall1 039.6(33.8%)

900.3(29.2%)

889.1(28.9%)

849.9(27.6%)

3 079.8

Note : Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares of employed persons in the respectiveeconomic sectors.

Source : Thematic Household Survey Report No. 13 : Employment Concerns and Training Needs of theLabour Force, Census and Statistics Department.

Annex 25

Employed persons by major challenge/problem being faced by the occupation category in which they were engaged and by occupation category

Major challenge/problem being facedby the occupation category engaged

Heavierworkload

Salary/wage cuts

Longerworking

hoursHigher job

requirements

All persons inthe occupation

category

Occupation category No. of persons ('000)

Managers andadministrators,professionals andassociate professionals

479.5(48.8%)

274.1(27.9%)

327.9(33.3%)

254.8(25.9%)

983.3

Clerks 276.4(49.7%)

160.0(28.7%)

148.3(26.7%)

139.6(25.1%)

556.5

Service workers and shopsales workers

186.9(43.1%)

163.2(37.6%)

110.8(25.5%)

68.1(15.7%)

433.9

Craft and related workers 98.9(36.2%)

117.7(43.1%)

55.6(20.4%)

36.8(13.5%)

273.0


76.3(36.3%)

84.5(40.2%)

75.3(35.8%)

11.4(5.4%)

210.2

Elementary occupations 229.3(36.9%)

186.5(30.0%)

129.3(20.8%)

49.3(7.9%)

620.9

Others 1.1(49.5%)

#

(*)1.1

(49.5%)0.5

(25.1%)2.1

Overall 1 348.4(43.8%)

985.9(32.0%)

848.2(27.5%)

560.6(18.2%)

3 079.8

Notes : (#) Number being less than 50.

(*) Share being less than 0.05%.

Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares of employed persons in the respectiveoccupation categories.


1 2001 000800600200 4000

Annex 26

Employed persons by change in job requirement experiencedin the past three years

Note : Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all employed persons.


don't know

no change

others

multiple language skill

higher academic

job straddling

skill upgrading

higher intensity

increase use ofcomputer Higher intensity of work1 037.7 (33.7%)

Job straddling/multi-skilling1 017.1 (33.0%)

Longer working hours1 000.9 (32.5%)

Skill upgrading 554.5 (18.0%)

Higher academic qualification538.2 (17.5%)

More flexible working hours 425.1 (13.8%)

Increasing use of computer and machinery/equipment388.8 (12.6%)

Higher/multiple language skills287.1 (9.3%)

No change 344.3 (11.2%)

No. of persons ('000)

manufacturing construction wholesale transport financing community All employed personConstruction Wholesale,retail

and import/export trades,

restaurants andhotels

Transport,storage and

communications


andbusinessservices

All employedpersons


100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%Manufacturing

Annex 27

Percentage distribution of employed persons by whether having beenaffected by the prevalence of corporate restructuring since 2001

and by economic sector

Whether having been affected by corporate restructuring :


Yes

No

26.8%

73.2%

31.4%

68.6%

26.2%

73.8%

28.6%

71.4%

28.6%

71.4%

18.9%

81.1%

25.5%

74.5%

managers and clerks service workers craft and related plant and machine elementary All employed person

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Annex 28

Percentage distribution of employed persons by whether having been affectedby the prevalence of corporate restructuring since 2001

and by occupation category

Whether having been affected by corporate restructuring :


Managers andadministrators,professionalsand associateprofessionals

Clerks Serviceworkers

andshop salesworkers

Craft andrelatedworkers


and assemblers


All employedpersons

Yes

No

26.8%

73.2% 72.8% 74.2% 70.4% 71.6% 80.9% 74.5%

27.2% 25.8% 28.4% 19.1% 25.5%29.6%

Annex 29

Percentage distribution of economically active persons by whether having apressing need to find new job and reasons for having such need

Notes : (#) Multiple answers were allowed.

Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all economically active persons in respectof those who had a pressing need to find new job.


No88.3% Yes

11.7%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

reduction in fringe benefits

contract will be ended in the

near future

longer working hours

may be laid off

high work pressure

salary / wage cuts

slack work

unemployment Being unemployed278.4 (69.4%)

Slack work 50.3 (12.5%)

Salary/wage cuts 32.5 (8.1%)

High work pressure 24.0 (6.0%)

Contract will be ended in the near future 7.3 (1.8%)

Reason#

Whether having a pressingneed to find new job


May be laid-off/dismissed in the near future 17.9 (4.5%)

Reduction in fringe benefits 3.0 (0.8%)

Longer working hours 15.5 (3.9%)

Annex 30

Percentage distribution of economically active persons*by whether having plan to move to another economic sectorin the coming 12 months and reasons for having such plan

Notes : (*) Excluding unemployed persons without previous employment.

(#) Multiple answers were allowed.

Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all economically active persons inrespect of those who had plan to move to another economic sector in the coming 12 months.



Yes7.0%

No93.0%

0 20 40 60 80 100

hard to find job

work too hard

no prospect

low salary

better opp

Reason#

Better opportunities in othersectors 89.7 (38.1%)

Low salary/wage in the currentsector 34.6 (14.7%)

No prospects for the currentsector 47.4 (20.1%)

Work too hard in the currentsector 34.4 (14.6%)

Hard to find job in the currentsector 70.1 (29.8%)

Whether having plan to move toanother economic sector in

the coming 12 months

Annex 31

Economically active persons by the economic sector in which theywould most wish to work over the next three years

Economic sector most wish towork in over the next three years No. of persons

('000) (%)

Economic sector currently engaged 2 777.5 81.0

Any economic sector 517.8 15.1

Wholesale, retail and import/export trades,restaurants and hotels

39.4 1.1

Financing, insurance, real estate and businessservices

32.7 1.0

Community, social and personal services 29.0 0.8

Transport, storage and communications 13.1 0.4

Construction 10.9 0.3

Manufacturing 8.9 0.3

Others 0.8 ~

Total 3 430.1 100.0

Note : (~) Less than 0.05%.


Reason#


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

being unemployed

for interest

hard to find job

take up new challenge

grasp new opportunities

want to have own business

can earn more money

Annex 32

Percentage distribution of economically active persons by whetherhaving plan or intention to set up own business in the coming 12 months

and reasons for having such plan/intention


Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all economically active persons in respectof those who had plan or intention to set up own business in the coming 12 months.


No98.3%

Whether having plan/intentionto set up own business in the

coming 12 months Want to earn moremoney 30.0 (52.6%)

Hard to find job7.9 (13.8%)

Want to have own business/want to bean employer 11.7 (20.5%)

Want to grasp new opportunities in a changingbusiness environment 10.7 (18.8%)

Want to take up new challenge10.6 (18.6%)

Yes1.7%

For interest7.2 (12.7%)

Being unemployed3.6 (6.3%)

Annex 33

Economically active persons having plan/intention to set up own business inthe coming 12 months by economic sector of the business desired

Economic sector of the business desired No. of persons ('000) (%)

Wholesale, retail and import/export trades,restaurants and hotels

36.1 63.3

Financing, insurance, real estate and businessservices

6.1 10.8

Community, social and personal services 5.6 9.9

Transport, storage and communications 3.7 6.4

Construction 3.3 5.8

Manufacturing 1.9 3.4

Others 0.3 0.5

Total 57.1 100.0


Annex 34

Economically active persons by whether having been engaged in job-relatedbusiness activities in the Mainland in the past 12 months and by type of

business activities engaged in while in the Mainland

Whether having been engaged in job-relatedbusiness activities in the Mainland in thepast 12 months/type of business activitiesengaged in while in the Mainland # No. of persons

('000) (%)

Yes 386.5 11.3

Engagement in work 203.3 (52.6)

Attending meetings 124.7 (32.3)

Engagement in business-relatedentertainment

110.1 (28.5)

Inspection of business 80.1 (20.7)

Attending trade fairs 46.7 (12.1)

Travelling between Hong Kong and theMainland by virtue of jobs related totransportation (e.g. cross-boundarydrivers)

24.2 (6.2)

No 3 043.6 88.7

Total 3 430.1 100.0


Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all economically active persons inrespect of those who had been engaged in job-related business activities in the Mainland in thepast 12 months.


Yes1.1%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

others

higher pay of job

better living environment

Having spouse/children

Lower cost of living

Being unemployed

Easier to seek jobs

better prospects of career

Easier to seek jobs in theMainland 9.9 (26.0%)

Higher pay for job in the Mainland1.6 (4.3%)

Better prospects of career developmentin the Mainland 24.3 (63.9%)

Annex 35

Percentage distribution of economically active persons* by whether havingintention to work in a job which might require them to be stationed in

the Mainland for a relatively long period of time in the coming 12 monthsand reasons for having such intention

Notes : (*) Excluding those persons whose usual place of work was already in the Mainland at thetime of enumeration.

(#) Multiple answers were allowed.

Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all economically active persons inrespect of those who had intention to work in a job which might require them to be stationed inthe Mainland for a relatively long period of time in the coming 12 months (excluding thosewhose usual place of work was already in the Mainland at the time of enumeration).


Reason#

No98.9%


Whether having intention to work in a jobwhich might require the job-holder to bestationed in the Mainland for a relatively

long period of time in the coming 12 months

Better living environment in theMainland 2.2 (5.7%)

Being unemployed in Hong Kong5.3 (13.9%)

Lower cost of living in the Mainland4.9 (13.0%)

Having spouse/children/relatives/friendsliving in the Mainland 2.3 (6.0%)

Others 0.9 (2.3%)

Annex 36

Economically active persons having intention to work in a job which mightrequire them to be stationed in the Mainland for a relatively long period of time

in the coming 12 months by whether having taken any action to find such job in thepast 6 months/action taken to find such job

Whether having taken any action in the past 6 monthsto find a job which might require the job-holderto be stationed in the Mainland for a relativelylong period of time/action taken to find such job No. of persons

('000) (%)

Yes 14.8 38.9

Searched information on job vacancies through the Internet

4.8 (32.7)

Sought assistance from relatives/friends 3.9 (26.2)

Placed/answered advertisement 3.4 (23.2)

Attended career exhibitions 1.4 (9.2)

Others 1.3 (8.6)

No 23.2 61.1

Total 38.1 100.0

Note : Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all economically active persons inrespect of those who had taken action in the past six months to find a job which might requirethem to be stationed in the Mainland for a relatively long period of time.


Annex 37

Economically active persons having intention to work in a job which mightrequire them to be stationed in the Mainland for a relatively long period of

time in the coming 12 months by perception on whether skill upgrading andtraining/retraining would be required/type of skill upgrading and

training/retraining required

Perception on whether skill upgrading andtraining/retraining would be required/type ofskill upgrading and training/retraining required No. of persons

('000) (%)

Required 16.4 43.2

Putonghua 6.5 (39.8)

Computer skills 2.6 (16.0)

China-related knowledge 1.9 (11.9)

Job-specific skills 1.7 (10.2)

Basic academic qualification required for entry 1.1 (6.9)

Management skills 1.1 (6.8)

Others 1.4 (8.5)

Not required 21.6 56.8

Total 38.1 100.0

Note : Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all economically active persons inrespect of those who had intention to work in a job which might require them to be stationedin the Mainland for a relatively long period of time in the coming 12 months and perceivedthat skill upgrading and training/retraining would be required for them to do so.


Annex 38

Economically active persons by whether having attended anyjob-related training/retraining courses arranged by employers and/or

on own initiative in the past 12 months

Whether having attended any job-related training/retraining coursesarranged by employers and/or on own initiative in the past 12 months

Yes No Total

No. of persons No. of persons No. of persons('000) (%) ('000) (%) ('000) (%)

Job-related training/retraining coursesarranged byemployers

338.9 9.9 3 091.2 90.1 3 430.1 100.0

Job-related training/retraining coursesattended on owninitiative

242.2 7.1 3 187.9 92.9 3 430.1 100.0

Overall+ 499.2 14.6 2 930.9 85.4 3 430.1 100.0

Note : (+) A person might have attended both the job-related training/retraining courses arranged byemployers and those on own initiative in the past 12 months.


Annex 39

Percentage distribution of economically active persons by whether havingplan to attend job-related training/retraining courses in the coming 12

months and type of job-related training/retraining courses to be attended


Figures in brackets represent the percentage shares in all economically active persons inrespect of those who had plan to attend job-related training/retraining courses in the coming12 months.


0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

others

china-related knowledge

communication

job-specific

language skill

management skill

It skill

Type of course to be attended#

IT skills145.8 (26.2%)

Management skills126.8 (22.7%)

Language skills138.5 (24.8%)

Job-specific skills92.2 (16.5%)

Interpersonal and intrapersonal skillsrequired for workplace 32.3 (5.8%)

China-related knowledge andworld vision 14.2 (2.5%)


No83.7%

Yes16.3%

Whether having plan to attendjob-related training/retraining

courses in the coming 12 months

Other skills 72.1 (12.9%)

Annex 40

Number of persons engaged as at mid-2002by occupation category by employment type

0 100 200 300 400 500

Elementary occupations�


Craft and related workers�

Service workers andshop sales workers�

Clerks�

Associate professionals�

Professionals�

Managers andadministrators�

Number of persons engaged ('000)

Full-timepermanent

Full-timenon-permanent

Part-time

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements,Census and Statistics Department.

Occupation category

Annex 41

Distribution of employees recruited from outside Hong Kongby country/territory of recruitment

Themainlandof China(34.8%)

Japan(9.2%)

The UnitedKingdom

(8.3%)

The UnitedStates(6.9%)

Othercountries

/ territories(40.7%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Community, social and personal services

Financing, insurance, real estateand business services

Transport, storage and communications

Wholesale, retail and import/exporttrades, restaurants and hotels

Construction(with 10+ persons engaged)

Manufacutring, electricity and gas

% of employees recruited from the mainland of China

Economic sector


Annex 42

Proportion of persons engaged as at mid-2002 (actual)and mid-2007 (projected) by economic sector

Economic sectorProportion of

persons engagedChange

(% points)

Mid-2002 Mid-2007

Manufacturing, electricity and gas 9.2% 8.7% - 0.5

Construction (with 10+ personsengaged)

4.2% 4.2% 0.0

Wholesale, retail and import/exporttrades, restaurants and hotels

48.7% 49.3% + 0.6

Transport, storage and communications 11.4% 11.3% - 0.1

Financing, insurance, real estate andbusiness services

20.7% 20.8% + 0.1

Community, social and personalservices

5.8% 5.7% - 0.2

Total 100.0% 100.0%

Notes : (1) All information collected in the survey, including factual data and employers’ opinions,refers only to the businesses of the sampled establishments rather than that of therespective sectors they were engaged in. As such, the survey findings may not fullyreflect the situation of those growth sectors with new establishments joining, and thosedeclining sectors with existing establishments closing down or changing trade.

(2) Quite a number of respondents found it difficult to forecast the manpower requirement asat mid-2007, as they did not have such long-term plans in face of rapid changes in theeconomy. Hence, care should be taken in interpreting the survey findings in respect ofthe projected manpower requirement as at mid-2007, which may just represent therespondents’ manpower requirement in broad terms in the foreseeable future.


Annex 43

Proportion of persons engaged as at mid-2002 (actual)and mid-2007 (projected) by occupation category

Occupation categoryProportion of


(% points)

Mid-2002 Mid-2007

Managers and administrators 16.8% 16.7% - 0.1

Professionals 6.3% 6.9% + 0.6

Associate professionals 9.6% 9.6% + 0.1

Clerks 19.1% 19.4% + 0.3

Service workers and shop salesworkers

20.2% 20.2% 0.0

Craft and related workers 6.1% 6.0% - 0.1


7.1% 6.8% - 0.3

Elementary occupations 14.8% 14.4% - 0.4

Total 100.0% 100.0%




Annex 44

Proportion of persons engaged as at mid-2002 (actual)and mid-2007 (projected) by educational attainment

Educational attainmentProportion of


( % points)

Mid-2002 Mid-2007

Postgraduate 1.9% 2.6% + 0.7

First degree 15.3% 21.6% + 6.3

Sub-degree 3.8% 4.7% + 0.9

Technician 3.0% 3.1% 0.0

Craft 1.8% 1.7% - 0.1

Matriculation 8.2% 12.1% + 4.0

Upper secondary 33.0% 29.6% - 3.4

Lower secondary and below 33.0% 24.5% - 8.4

Total 100.0% 100.0%




Annex 45

Distribution of establishments by whether having plans to recruitemployees from the mainland of China over the next 5 years

Notspecified(3.1%)

No(82.9%)

Yes(13.9%)

Occupation category of employees to be recruited

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Others

Professionals

Managers and�administrators�

% of establishments having such plans

Preferred educational attainment of employees to be recruited

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Others�

First degree�

Postgraduate�



Annex 46

Distribution of establishments by whether having plans to deploy personsto work in the mainland of China over the next 5 years

Notspecified(2.8%)

No(80.9%)

Yes(16.3%)

Occupation category of persons to be deployed

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Others

Professionals



Preferred educational attainment of persons to be deployed

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Others

First degree

Postgraduate�



Annex 47

Views on business prospects over the next 5 years in view ofHong Kong’s economic restructuring and China’s accession to WTO

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Financing, insurance,real estate and

business services�

Transport, storage andcommunications�

Wholesale, retail andimport/export trades,�restaurants and hotels�

Construction(with 10+ persons

engaged)

Manufacturing,electricity and gas�

Very optimistic

Optimistic

Neither optimisticnor pessimistic

Pessimistic

Very pessimistic

No comment

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Large�

Medium-sized

Small�

% of establishments

Size of establishment

% of establishments

Economic sector

Source : Report on 2002 Establishment Survey on Manpower Training and Job Skills Requirements,Census and Statistics Department

Annex 48

Impact of Hong Kong’s economic restructuring andChina’s accession to WTO on business turnover over the next 5 years

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Community, social andpersonal services�






engaged)

Manufacturing,electricity and gas Significant increase

Some increase

No change

Some decrease

Significant decrease

No comment

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Large�

Medium-sized

Small�

% of establishments


% of establishments

Economic sector


Annex 49

Distribution of establishments by whether having investmentin the mainland of China

Notspecified(1.6%)

No(81.6%)

Yes(16.8%)

Type of investment project

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Real estate�

Wholesale�

Retail�

Import/export�

Manufacturing�

% of establishments having investment in the mainland of China


Annex 50

New business opportunities brought about by China’s accession to WTO

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Community, social andpersonal services�






engaged)

Manufacturing,electricity and gas

Would bring about new business opportunities

Would not bring about new business opportunities

Not specified

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Large�

Medium-sized

Small

% of establishments


% of establishments

Economic sector


Annex 51

Implications for Hong Kong's business environment over the next 5 yearsupon China's accession to WTO

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Hong Kong's middleman role likely to diminish�

More inducement to conduct business�in the mainland of China upon more�

objective and transparent rules and regulations�

More companies to relocate their business�operations to the mainland of China�

Need to better understand�the market and changes in investment�environment in the mainland of China�

Face keener competition from�

enterprises in the mainland of China�

% of establishments considering that specific concern to have implications

Concern


Annex 52

Measures to be adopted by the company over the next 5 years to cope withHong Kong’s economic restructuring and China’s accession to WTO

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Increase intake of skilled workers

Search for working partners or commencebusiness in the mainland of China

Expand business in the mainland of China

Diversify the business of the company

Restructure the organisation and/orbusiness process to stay competitive

Upgrade the capability of the workforcein terms of technology and language skills

Upgrade the skills of existing staff

Focus on the core business and reduce theperipheral business with lower value-added

Increase the use of IT within the company

% of establishments to adopt the measure

Measure


Annex 53

Distribution of establishments having employeesby whether having training plans and/or training budget for employees

Yes(13.1%)

No(82.3%)

Notspecified(4.6%)

(i) Whether having training plans (ii) Whether having training budget

Yes(11.2%)

No(84.2%)

Notspecified(4.6%)


Annex 54

Distribution of establishments having employees by whether having plans toincrease training for upgrading knowledge and skills of employees

Yes(29.1%)

Not specified(5.0%)

No(66.0%)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Increasetrainingslightly

Increasetraining

moderately

Increasetraining

considerably



Annex 55

Most popular types of skills to be enhanced

Occupation category Most popular type of skill to be enhanced

Managers and administrators Management skills

Professionals IT skills

Associate professionals IT skills

Clerks Language skills

Service workers and shop sales workers Language skills

Craft and related workers Interpersonal and intrapersonal skills forthe workplace


Job-specific skills

Elementary occupations Interpersonal and intrapersonal skills forthe workplace


Annex 56

Preferred training modes

Ranking Preferred training mode

1 Self-learning (outside office hours)

2 Extra-mural courses

3 In-house training

4 On-the-job training

5 Contract-out

6 Web-based training

7 Distance learning


report on manpower projection to 2007 - education bureau · 2012-11-08 · report on manpower...

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