research on drugs and crime: where we’ve been and where we’re going thomas e. feucht, ph.d....
TRANSCRIPT
Research on Drugs and Crime:
Where We’ve Been and Where We’re Going
Thomas E. Feucht, Ph.D.Acting Assistant Director
National Institute of Justice
California ACJR MeetingSacramento, CA, March 17, 2005
Presentation Overview
• Overview of NIJ
• Where we’ve been in D&C research– What we think we know– What we actually know from research
• Where we ought to be going – and why
NIJ Overview
• NIJ’s mission: Enhance justice and public safety through research, development, and evaluation
• NIJ’s research focus: Aid state and local CJ practitioners and policymakers
• NIJ’s research agenda: – Broad, national perspective– Established by the NIJ Director – guided by the needs of CJ professionals, policymakers, and
researchers
www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij
National Institute of JusticeNational Institute of Justice
Sarah V. Hart, DirectorSarah V. Hart, Director
Office of ResearchOffice of Research
And EvaluationAnd EvaluationOffice of ScienceOffice of Science
And TechnologyAnd Technology
Evaluation DivisionEvaluation Division
Crime Control and Prevention Crime Control and Prevention
Research DivisionResearch Division
Violence and Victimization Violence and Victimization
Research DivisionResearch Division
Justice Systems Justice Systems
Research DivisionResearch Division
Research and TechnologyResearch and Technology
Development DivisionDevelopment Division
Investigative and ForensicInvestigative and Forensic
Sciences DivisionSciences Division
Technology AssistanceTechnology Assistance
DivisionDivision
Office of the DirectorOffice of the Director
Office of Research and Evaluation
Violence and Victimization Research Division
Angela Moore Parmley
Violence and Victimization Research Division
Angela Moore Parmley
Crime Control and Prevention Research Division
Bryan Vila
Crime Control and Prevention Research Division
Bryan Vila
Justice Systems Research Division
Chris Innes
Justice Systems Research Division
Chris Innes
Acting Assistant Directorfor Research and Evaluation
Thomas Feucht
Acting Assistant Directorfor Research and Evaluation
Thomas Feucht
Deputy Assistant DirEd Zedlewski
Deputy Assistant DirEd Zedlewski
InternationalResearch CenterJay Albanese
InternationalResearch CenterJay Albanese
EvaluationsDivision
Betty Chemers
EvaluationsDivision
Betty Chemers
NIJ Funding, 1993-2005 ($M)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 (est)
Direct Approp'n Separate Approp'n Transfers
FY 03-05 Base Appropriations
FY2003 FY2004 FY2005
Social Science Discretionary
$22 $8.3 $11.0
Violence Against Women Research
$5.2 $5.0 $4.9
Technology $32.8 $38.0 $43.3
Research on Drugs and Crime:Where We’ve Been…
Drug Court Research
NIJ Research on Drug Courts
• Active portfolio since mid-1990s
• More than $5 million invested to date
• More than 25 different courts
• Range of topics, issues
• Investments in research improvement
• On-going longitudinal drug court evaluation
NIJ Research on Drug Courts, cont’d
• DC Superior Court Drug Intervention Program evaluation (1997)
• Clark Cty (NV) and Multnomah Cty (OR) evaluations (2001)
• Kansas City (MO) and Pensacola (FL) evaluations (2001)
• Treatment modalities study (2002) • Multnomah (OR) cost study (2004)• NY State six-court evaluation (OJP, 2003)
Drug Court Research:What We Know and What We Don’t Know
ASSERTIONS ( “testable hypotheses”):
H1: Treatment Works
H2: Length of Treatment Matters
H3: The Judge Matters
H4: Sanctions and Incentives Make a Difference
H5: Drug Courts Achieve Results
H4: Sanctions and Incentives Make a Difference
• Evidence:– Treatment research has provided evidence – Evaluation of NIJ’s “Breaking the Cycle”
program provided evidence of the importance of sanctions and incentives
– DC Superior Court test of “graduated sanctions”
Sanctions and Incentives:What We Don’t Know
• Question of balance
• Tied to the role of the judge
• Theoretical model of a drug court
H5: Drug Courts Achieve Results
Outcomes:
• Reduced drug use
• Reduced recidivism
• Cost Effectiveness
Reducing Recidivism
• NIJ national study of 2,020 graduates from 95 drug courts (Urban/Caliber 2003)– Indicates 16.4% recidivism one year after
graduation– 27.5% after two years
• Compared to what?
Reducing Recidivism (cont’d)
• Randomized Control Trials– DC Superior Court – Baltimore City– Maricopa County
• Matched samples, other designs
Reducing Recidivism (cont’d):Randomized: Enrolled vs Control Group
• Re-arrest at 12 months post-admission– 48% vs 66% (Baltimore City)– 66% vs 81% at 24 months post-adm (Balt. City)
• Re-arrest at 12 months post-sentencing– 19% vs 27% (DC Superior)
• Re-arrest at 36 months post-treatment– 33% vs 47%
Reducing Recidivism (cont’d): Problems and Dilemmas
• Measuring recidivism– Arrest vs conviction– Drug offense? Technical violation? Other?– Cachment of offending?
• Time frame– Starting point: admission, completion, other?– Offending during period of treatment?
Cost-Benefit of Drug Courts
• Multnomah County study shows system savings
• Washington State Institute for Public Policy
• New York (CCI) study show cost effectiveness
• NIDA “Measuring and Improving Costs of Tx Programs” (1999)
Cost-Benefit of Drug Courts (cont’d): Multnomah Costs and Benefits
• Up-front costs: $5927 for DC client vs $7369 for “business-as-usual” offenders– Drug court costs $1441 less up front– Due largely in jail and probation savings
• Benefits (later costs avoided)– First year: drug court avoids $3597 in later costs– 30 months: drug court avoids $5071
• x 300 clients/yr = $1,521,471 system savings
Cost-Benefit of Drug Courts: Problems and Dilemmas
• How to capture marginal costs, savings
• Savings in other parts of CJ system
• Savings to victim
“If drug courts were required to undergo the same type of approval process as new medications, they would probably be labeled as ‘experimental’ and might not be approved for specific uses. This is because we do not yet understand their mechanism of action, do not know their contraindications, and do not know their proper dosage…. [But] there is ample scientific support to warrant further research on them and to make them available to desperate clients who have not responded favorably to currently available treatments.”
Marlowe (2003)
Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) Program
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00Q1 00Q2 00Q3 00Q4 01Q1 01Q2 01Q3 01Q4 02Q1
Overall Pacific Rim Other Sites
Arrestee Drug Test Results for Methamphetamine, 2000-2002
9
Percent Positive
The percent of arrestees who use a phone to buy drugs has been increasing, in general
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00Q1 00Q2 00Q3 00Q4 01Q1 01Q2 01Q3 01Q4
MarijuanaCrack CocainePowder CocaineHeroinMethamphetamine
Recent Developments on ADAM
• ADAM program terminated at the end of FY 2003 due to NIJ budget constraints
• 2003 Annual report and data forthcoming
• Plans underway at BJS for new national felony arrestee drug use monitoring sample
ADAM , concluded
• Contracting funding, competing objectives (national v. local)
• How to understand local drug patterns, problems? To what end?
Other Important Research on Drugs and Crime
• Re-entry (including NIJ’s SVORI evaluation)
• Prescription drugs (Rogers PDDP)
• Meth labs and public safety
• Campus Drug Courts (Colo St Univ)
… and where does all this lead us?
Principles and Lessons Thus Far
• Test the hypothesis (RCTs)
• Research is a long-term endeavor
• Budget limitations are real
• Value of studying drugs in the CJ context
One Other Lesson
• Danger of “intervening events:”
– new drugs (like ecstasy)
– New Policies (like Prop 36)
Ecstasy Sellers Sheigla Murphy, Inst. For Sci. Anal, SF, CA
• “Friends selling to friends”
• Use largely limited to “social situations”
• 54% of sellers wanted “out”
• Transition to selling powder cocaine?
California SACPA (Prop 36)
• UCLA 2nd year report• Tx referrals
– 44,000 in Year 1, 50,000 in Year 2– About ½ for methamphetamine– Many entering Tx for first time ever
• About 70 percent of those referred show up for Tx– Of these, about 1/3 completed Tx
www.uclaisap.org
Okla Pseudoeph Law (2003)
• Pseudoephedrine tables Schedule V– Requires photo ID, signature– Sold from a “secure” location (behind counter)
• Monthly lab seizures:– 14.5/mo in 2003– 5.3/mo since April 2004
Research on Drugs and Crime:Where We’re Going…
“Signposts”
1. All crime is local.
• Crime “hotspots”
• Mapping and GIS
• Local problem-solving is efficacious.
2. “S____ Happens.”
The rate of change in offending and in the CJS sometimes (often?) outstrips the knowledge-gathering tools we use to study, understand, and respond to crime.– Technological innovation– Policy changes – Offenders, drug markets, cybercrime, etc.
3. Researchers need to be antagonistic.
• Look for commonalities where others see only uniqueness.
• Recognize the unique where others want to generalize.
Recommendation #1:Measurement
• Improvement and consistency needed in measuring:– treatment compliance/attendance/retention– Sanctions and incentives– recidivism
Recommendation #2:Research Designs
• The value of RCTs: “research-led policy”
• Alternatives: local problem-solving, action research
• Liberman on “Research-generating policy”
• Kleiman on “imperfect rationality”
Recommendation #3:Tempered Expectations
• Addiction is a chronic disease.• Understand addiction in a context of personal
dysfunction.• Relapse requires an array of available responses.• System changes will occur.• Isolating effects is difficult in a complex
environment.
So… Where are We Headed?
• CJ program evaluation, but only with rigorous designs
• “Cost-Benefit/Effectiveness Analysis
• Examining drug policy
• Testing/proving the value-added of research, especially for local problem-solving
www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij
www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nijNational Institute of Justice
www.ncjrs.orgNational Criminal Justice Research Service
(Publications clearinghouse)
[email protected] E. Feucht
Office of Research and EvaluationNIJ
