research validation of climate change

8/14/2019 Research Validation of Climate Change

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1.0INTRODUCTIONResearch Topic:

CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABLE IMPACTS OF HYDROELECTRIC POWERSUPPLY IN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

After reviewing the literature based on the research topic, the following research questions

were formed:

Research Questions:

What are the climate parameters that have significant change that were brought aboutin the increase of greenhouse gases?

What are the climate variables that resulted in the change of climate in the Philippines? What is the relationship in rising temperature and precipitation change due the climate

change in the Philippines with Hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao,

Philippines?

What is the effect of El Nino phenomenon with Hydroelectric Power generation inMindanao, Philippines?

What other factors aside from climate change and El Nino that can be considered asinvolved in the Power shortage supply in Mindanao, Philippines?

Hypothesis:

Climate Change in the Philippines affects the hydroelectric power generation in

Mindanao, Philippines.

This type of hypothesis is a relational hypothesis since it will state the relationships between

variables. The variables involved in climate change are the temperature and precipitation.

Other variables are the temperature and precipitation change brought about by the El Nino

phenomenon. An increase in temperature will increase evaporation; this will affect the water

resources required in hydroelectric generation. Decrease in precipitation will also affect

water slow therefore will affect also power supply in hydroelectric facilities. Hypothesis can

be tested qualitatively because variables such as temperature and precipitation can be

measured. Hydroelectric power output can also be quantified.

After a second review of literatures a revised hypothesis was drawn:


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Increase in temperature, decrease in precipitation and decrease river runoff due to

climate change in the Philippines has a negative impact of the hydroelectric power

generation in Mindanao, Philippines.

The potential impact of climate change on water resources can be shown in terms of

variations in temperature and precipitation. There is a relationship between increased

temperatures with variations in river runoff due to changes in precipitation. Studies show not

only the effect on the river flows but also the impact on generation from hydroelectric

stations.

After selecting an appropriate research methods and selecting relevant data collection

methods two hypotheses were made:

Hypothesis 1: Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation due to climate

change in the Philippines will decrease river runoff.

Hypothesis 2: Decrease river runoff has a negative impact of the hydroelectric power

generation in Mindanao, Philippines.

In this research the procedure that will be used in describing or explaining climate change in

the Philippines is by using change of temperature and precipitation. The capacity of the

natural water resources used in Mindanao, Philippines in hydroelectric power generation can

be assessed against projected climate change and variability. Quantitative research method

will be applied that will primarily base on the measurement of change of temperature and

precipitation consequently the estimates of river flow or river runoff. This research method

will be based on simulation case studies; therefore, it will generally classify as quantitative

research.

Secondary historical climate data of change in temperature and precipitation from the

Philippines government statistics website can be investigated to convert into primary date

using regression analysis. To assess the effect of climate change, a model can be develop

using this method to provide estimates of potential and actual evapotranspiration in terms of

river runoff based on temperature and precipitation change. The effect of climate change on

hydrogenation can then be determined by using the expected values for river runoff using the

model taken from a case study.


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Table 1 Historical Climate Data 1966-1982 (Philippine National Statistical

Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

Table 2. Historical Climate Data 1983-1996 (Philippine National Statistical

Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).


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With the increasing emission of greenhouse gases, their concentrations in the

atmosphere also go up which, in turn, cause the temperature of the earth to rise.

The rise in earths temperature, meanwhile, leads to changes in the patterns of

precipitation and the sea level to rise. The changes in climate have adverse

effects not only on our ecological and socioeconomic systems but on human

health as well. Thus, there is a growing concern over various manifestations of

climate changes like the pollution-induced global warming and the El Nio

phenomenon (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d.).

A study made by the NSCB in 1998 on the various climate data generated by

PAGASA from 1966 to 1996 indicated a shift to a warmer climate. A close

examination of the temperature in the Philippines from the period 1966 to

1996 revealed that from 1987 onwards, the average minimum temperatures

recorded were higher than the normal minimum temperature of 22.95 degrees

C, suggesting that the climate in the country is getting warmer. Similarly, the

average mean temperature observed in the same period has not fallen below

the normal mean temperature of 27.03 degrees C (Philippine National

Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

Other climate variables were tested in terms of the effect of El Nino covering

the same period (1966-1996). Data on the various climate variables for the

past three decades are given in Table 1 and Table 2. Annual data presented

were obtained by averaging the data recorded by the different PAGASA

stations located nationwide (Philippine National Statistical Coordination

Board (NSCB) n.d.).

The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been suggestedsince the 1980s, as work progressed on predicting climate change. Although

Global Circulation Model (GCM) can be used to predict runoff directly, the

coarse scale used means that this information is only useful for the most

general studies. As a result, many studies have been carried out on individual

basins, showing that river basins display a range of sensitivities to climate

change. Figure 1 shows the response of a typical river basin to variations in

precipitation and temperature. It can be seen that increased temperature results

in non-linear variations in runoff due to changes in precipitation. Base on this


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model, primary data which is the river runoff from change of temperature and

change of precipitation from Table 1 and 2 can be derived.

(Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.) .

Figure 1 River Basin Response to Climate Change (Harisson, Whittington

& Gundry n.d.)

In order to verify the hypotheses, a value of the hydropower generation output

in Mindanao, Philippines should be used. This value will be taken from the

government website. The Philippines has power electricity generating

capacity of 15.1gigawatts(GW). The country generated 53.1 billionkilowatt-

hours (Bkwh) of electricity in 2004, while consuming 49.4 Bkwh. The

Philippine electric power industry is composed into three main divisions

which are generation, transmission and distribution. In spite of the naturaldisasters and the adverse impact of climate change, the performance of the

power sector had developed. Mindanao hugely underwent the worst of the

power shortage brought by El Nio Phenomenon as 50 percent of its

electricity requirement mostly sourced from hydroelectric power facilities.

Electric supply in this area was inadequate as water level in lakes and rivers all

over the grid constantly below critical level.
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Table 3 2010 and 2009 Comparative Power Generation in the Philippines (2010 Philippine

Power Sector Situtationer, 2010)


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4.2Primary Source DataPrimary sources are original sources from which the researcher directly collects data

that have not been previously collected. Primary data are first-hand information

collected through various methods such as observation, interviewing, mailing

etc(Graciano & Raulin 2004).

In this research the primary data is generated using regression analysis of secondary

data taken from the Philippine government statistic website. Base on the research

hypotheses the variables involved are temperature and precipitation. Therefore, from

these independent variables, change of river runoff can be derived using the model

which is shown on table 4.


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From Table 3 the average of the hydropower generation in Mindanao Philippines

output was taken in order to get the true value corresponding with the change of

temperature, change of precipitation and change of runoff.

5.0Research Data Analysis5.1Secondary Data Analysis5.2Primary Data Analysis

6.0Research Hypotheses Verification6.1Hypotheses Verification6.2Critique of Hypotheses

7.0Research Data Validation7.1Statistical Analysis for Research Data Validation7.2Statistical Analysis for Research Data Reliability

8.0Conclusion of Research Validation

research validation of climate change

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