residential ues: smart plug power strips josh rushton regional technical forum aug 18, 2015

Residential UES: Smart Plug Power Strips

Josh RushtonRegional Technical Forum

Aug 18, 2015

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Objectives

Seeking RTF decision on updates to Residential Smart Plug Power Strips UES measure.• Review Research Strategy• Approve as Planning measure with extended

sunset date

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Measure Background• August, 2013: RTF approved the measure (Planning category) with a detailed

Research Plan• August, 2015: ETO has some research in the pipeline

– Applies to IR-sensing APS in home entertainment settings– Results expected Q1, 2016 – Staff believes the ETO work justifies Provisional category for IR-sensing APS in

workstations• Need to document RTF Research Plan;

– Mostly point to ETO contractor’s planning memo– Clarify things like adjustments related to delivery channel and persistence

• Staff plans to move forward with this process immediately

– SDG&E “Phase II” pre/post study (IR-sensing home entertainment) may be also be helpful when completed.

• Today’s main intent is to align the measure with RTF’s current usage of Planning versus Provisional categories – Minor modifications to measure itself – Retain Planning category – Replace existing Research Plan with new Research Strategy.

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Measure OverviewSector: ResidentialMeasure name: Advanced Power StripsApplications: • Home entertainment (AV), load-sensing

• Home entertainment (AV), IR-sensing • Home office, load-sensing • Home office, motion-sensing • Home office, PC interaction-sensing

Eligibility: Must have at least one controlled deviceDelivery channel: Rebate, direct-install, or mail-by-request only

Current ProposedCategory: Planning Planning Status: Active ActiveBaseline: Pre-conditions Pre-conditionsSunset Date: 08/31/2015 08/31/2018 Annual Savings: Varies VariesMeasure life: 5 years 5 yearsB/C Ratio: Varies Varies

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Measure applications• Research Strategy does not use “Tier I/Tier II” terminology

– Performance expected to be specific to APS technology and usage setting • Measure divided into five distinct applications:

– Home entertainment (AV), load-sensing– Home entertainment (AV), IR-sensing– Home office, load-sensing– Home office, motion-sensing– Home office, PC interaction-sensing

• Research Strategy describes objectives and research methods specific to each application– Research questions look alike for most applications– Answers likely to be highly context-dependent

• Don’t necessarily expect all four applications to make it to proven

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Load-sensing APS, Home entertainment

• How it works– APS configured so that peripheral devices are powered down when

the TV is turned off– Typical controlled devices include DVD player and other AV

equipment; – Controlled equipment should not include set-top box, cable

modem, DVR, some game consoles, or AV equipment used separately from TV

• Research questions– Primary: How much energy does it typically save?– Secondary: What are the typical controlled devices?

• Do controlled devices change over time?• Are some controlled devices associated with poor persistence?

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IR-sensing APS, Home entertainment

• How it works– IR sensor monitors remote-control signals; after 1-2 hour period of

inactivity, APS powers down controlled devices (user is given chance to over-ride)

– Typical controlled devices include TV, DVD player, and IR-controlled AV equipment;

– Controlled equipment should not include set-top box, cable modem, DVR, some game consoles

• Research questions– Primary: How much energy does it typically save?– Secondary: What are the typical controlled devices?

• Do controlled devices change over time?• Are some controlled devices (including TV) associated with poor persistence?

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Load-sensing APS, Home office

• How it works– Load-sensing APS configured so peripheral devices are powered

down when the PC is shut down or put to sleep– Typical controlled devices include external monitors, speakers,

desk lamps, and some printers; – Controlled devices typically should not include home-network

printers, modem/routers, phone, external hard drives• Research questions

– Primary: How much energy does it typically save?– Secondary: What are the typical controlled devices?

• Do controlled devices change over time?• Are some controlled devices associated with poor persistence?

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Motion-sensing APS, Home office

• How it works– Motion-sensing APS configured so peripheral devices are powered down

when no movement is detected by the sensor for a period of time– Typical controlled devices include external monitors, speakers, desk

lamps, and some printers; – Controlled devices typically should not include home-network printers,

modem/routers, phone, external hard drives• Research questions

– Primary: How much energy does it typically save?– Secondary: What are the typical controlled devices?

• Do controlled devices change over time?• Are some controlled devices associated with poor persistence?

– Secondary: Are sensor-placement instructions needed to ensure savings or persistence?

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PC interaction-sensing APS, Home office

• How it works– User-downloaded PC application monitors user interactions via the keyboard

and mouse; when no activity is detected for a period of time, the application initiates shut-down routine (user is given a chance to over-ride).

– Typical controlled devices include the PC, monitor(s), speakers, desk lamps, and some printers;

– Controlled equipment typically should not include home-network printers, modem/routers, telephone, external hard drives

• Research questions– Primary: How much energy does it typically save?

• Must account for efficiency achieved by baseline PC energy saver settings.

– Secondary: What are the typical controlled devices?• Are some controlled devices (including the PC) associated with poor persistence?

• Only one retail product currently available for this application

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Research Strategy: Data CollectionMeasure Minimum Sample Size Pre/Post

IR-Sensing, Home Entertainment 60 Yes

Load-Sensing, Home Entertainment 60 Yes

Load-Sensing, Home Office 60 Yes

Motion-Sensing, Home Office 60 Yes

PC Interaction-Sensing, Home Office 60 Yes

• Pre and post metering (3 weeks min each), cumulative kWh of controlled devices – For IR-Sensing, Home Entertainment: APS control algorithms vary, so research should

test whether savings vary significantly across different models – Manufacturer of PC-interaction-sensing APS: Devices can be programmed to collect

pre/post kWh and submit to evaluator via internet for low-cost evaluation.– Metering periods should be staggered to avoid seasonal effects.

• Site audits to inform– Typical configurations of controlled equipment– First-year removal rates

• Research plan should be appropriate for expected program delivery methods.

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Research Strategy: Data Analysis• Annual savings based difference between average daily kWh in the pre-

period minus average daily kWh in the post-period. • Researchers should check for important savings determinants

– Is energy savings correlated with connected device types?– IR-sensing (A/V): Is savings correlated with TV energy-saver functionality?– PC-interaction-sensing: Is savings correlated with baseline PC energy-saver

settings. – Results may be help inform program design and UES maintenance.

• Adjustments may be needed to account for differences between study conditions (e.g., participants and delivery channels) and expected programs conditions.– Final research plan should describe expected adjustments

Estimated Cost Range (all five applications):(< $25k) ($25k-$100k) ($100k-$250k) ($250k-$500k) ($500k-$1million) ($1million-$2million) (> $2million)

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Alternative Research Paths

The Research Strategy briefly mentions three alternative research strategies (see Additional Slides for details).The RTF’s judgment is that the following methods are not likely to provide sufficient rigor for Proven UES estimates:• Bottom-up savings • Post-only or pre-only metering with simulated

counterfactualThe RTF does not have a strong opinion as to whether this method can provide sufficient rigor for Proven UES estimates• Wide study with AMI interval data

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UES Planning valuesAPS type Application setting Delivery channel KWh

savings (current)

KWhSavings*, ** (proposed)

Load-Sensing

Home Entertainment Direct install 40 40

Home Office Direct install 20 20

Unknown Mail-by-request/retail 30 30

Motion-Sensing

Home Office Direct install 70 70

Home Office Mail-by-request/retail 70 70

IR-SensingHome Entertainment Direct install 300 215

Home Entertainment Mail-by-request/retail 300 215

PC-Sensing Home Office Unknown N/A 275

* RTF Planning estimates are not necessarily reliable.** Savings figures refer to properly-installed APS units and do not include adjustments for improper installation or subsequent removal.

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UES Planning Values

• RTF Planning values are not subject to stringent reliability requirements.

• The UES values on the previous page seek to estimate savings for properly installed APS units.

• Savings claims should be subject to three types of adjustments:– Installation rates. Improperly installed units may not save energy

(especially relevant to mail-by-request and retail delivery channels)– Removal rates. Customers who object to an APS control strategy may

remove the unit (relevant to all channels)– UES true-up. UES values (for properly installed units) should be

updated to reflect evaluation data or outcomes from reliable studies as those resources become available.

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Cost updatesAPS type Application setting Delivery channel Measure

cost (current)

Measure cost

(proposed)

Load-Sensing

Home Entertainment Direct install

Home Office Direct install

Unknown Mail-by-request/retail

Motion-SensingHome Office Direct install

Home Office Mail-by-request/retail

IR-SensingHome Entertainment Direct install

Home Entertainment Mail-by-request/retail

PC Interaction-Sensing

Home Office Unknown

This Table Under Construction

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Proposed Motion

“I, ______________, move that the RTF approves the Residential Advanced Power Strips as a UES measure– Keep category Planning– Set sunset date to August, 2018”

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Additional Slides

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Alternative Research Method:Bottom-up savings

• Basic method for estimating savings:– Research the type and quantity of controlled equipment;

– Combine with secondary data on estimates of stand-by and active power;

– Use judgment to estimate average duration of savings periods for various controlled devices in different operating modes.

• Similar method appears to have been used in other jurisdictions for some applications.

The RTF’s judgment is that this method is not likely to provide sufficient rigor for Proven UES estimates

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Alternative Research Method:Simulated counterfactual

• Basic method for estimating savings:

• This slide will describe the Simulated-counterfactual approach used in several recent “Tier II” studies in California

The RTF’s judgment is that this method is not likely to provide sufficient rigor for Proven UES estimates

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Alternative Research Method:AMI Interval Data

• Basic method for estimating savings:– Rather than a small sample of plug-load data, use a large sample of whole-

house data;

– Could use actual pre-post consumption data;

– At minimum, interval data could help identify unoccupied vacation periods (might permit longer study periods);

– Method details not spelled out in research strategy

• Con: Reliability hard to know in advance (harder than usual)

• Pro: Add to understanding of The Great AMI Opportunity

• Estimates could apply directly to UES for mail-by-request program (assuming units in the study were mailed out)

The RTF does not have a strong opinion as to whether this method can provide sufficient rigor for Proven UES estimates