DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 022 854VT 003 808

A NOTE ON: APPRENECESHIP AND ECONOMIC CHANGE.

Manpower Administration (DOL), Washington, D.C. Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training.

Report No-TR-3Pub Date 64Note-28p.ECRS Price MF-$025 HC-$120Descrietors-*APPRENTICESHIPS, EMPLOYMENT TRENDS, *NATIONAL PROGRAMS, *PROGRAM EVALUATION,

TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL EDUCATION, UNEWLOYMENT

The apprenticeship system in the Uniied States is a method of training for a

vocation or skilled trade within the framework of a relatively free labor market. It is a

system which furnishes training through employment and one which is affected by the

employment level of a given period. This is particularly important as the apprenticeship

typically lasts 4 years, and the apprentice need at the termination of the training

period may not be the apprentice intake based on the employment level 4 years

earlier. The declining trend in apprenticeship since World War II cannot be attributed to

any single cause, but the increased number of persons who continue their formal

education seems to be the maior one. Maior factors which affec of apprentices are

(1) irregula"y of employment rate, (2) the completion rate, (3) unemployment, (4) college

and apprentice enrollment, and (5)the ratio between craftsmen and

professional-technical personnel. Statistical analysis indicates nc significant

relationship between the number of apprentices and the number of lourneymen.

Although apprentice numbers appear to have been small due to employer reluctance

to train skilled workers rather than to union policy, relatively little consideration has

been given to the system itself, the factors affecting the employer's decision to hire

apprentices, nor the factors affecting the apprentice's decision to enter or complete

such a training program. (EM)

APPRENTICESHIP andECONOMIC CHANGE

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, W. Willard Wirtz, SecretaryMANPOWER ADMINISTRATION, Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training

,

Technical Report No. 3

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION & WELFARE

OFFICE OF EDUCATION

THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE

PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIGINATING IT. POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINIONS

STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDUCATION

POSITION OR POLICY.

A Note On:

APPRENTICESHIP

AND

Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Manpower Administration

1964

ECONOMIC CHANGE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

INTRODUCTION1

1-- THE NUMBER OF NEW APPRENTICES 2

The Ratio of Apprentices to Craftsmen 2

Unemployment and the Number of Apprentices 6

2--THE APPRENTICESHIP COMPLETION RATE 9

Apprentice Completion Rates 9

Unemployment and Completion Rates 12

3- -UNEMPLOYMENT, NEW REGISTRANTS, AND COMPLETION RATES 12

Apprenticeship and Cyclical Change 12

The Downward Trend in Apprenticeship 16

4--EDUCATIONAL AND OCCUPATIONAL FACTORS 16

College Enrollment and Apprenticeship 16

The Craftsmen - Professional and Technician Ratio 18

CONCLUSION21

APPENDIX23

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page

1--Indices of annual average employed male craftsmen and newapprentice registrants, each year, 1947-62 5

2--Indices of unemployment and number of new apprentice registrants,each year, 1947-62 8

3--Indices of unemployment, each year, 1947-62, and of completionrates of new apprentice registrants, each year, 1947-59 11

4--Indices of unemployment and new apprentice registrants, each year,1947-62, and of completion rates of apprentices, newly registered,each year, 1947-59 13

5--Relationship between indices of unemployment and of new apprenticeregistrants, each year, 1947-62 16

6--Relationship between indices of completion rates of apprentices newlyregistered, each year, 1947-59 and of unemployment, each year,1947-62 .. 4 16

7--Ratio of annual average employed craftsmen to annual averageemployed professional and technical workers, 1947-62 17

INTRODUCTION

The apprenticeship system in the United States today is a method oftraining for a vocation, or more specifically, for a skilled trade operatingwithin the framework of a relatively free labor market.

The apprentice is free to leave the employer, and generally, subjectto collective bargaining agreements, the employer is at liberty to lay offor to discharge the apprentice.

As a result, American apprenticeship rests on two interrelatedparadoxes. The first concerns the "ends and means" of the system. Al-though its "end" is the training of well-rounded craftsmen, as presentlyconstituted the apprenticeship system can achieve its objective only by the"means" of employment of the apprentice. He is an employeea workerwho acquires his skill almost wholly on the job, earning wages from workwith a designated employer. He produces, and his product is sold. Theapprentice's training ceases when his employment ceases or is interrupted.Achievement of the "end" of craft training, therefore, depends wholly onthe availability of employment for apprentices. No matter how excellentthe training might be, it cannot be transmitted to the apprentice unless heis employed. Thus, although the apprenticeship system is in a sense aform of vocational training, the system can be operational only as a formof employment.

The second paradox concerns time. An apprentice generally learnshis craft in four years, and in some instances in as many as five or sixyears. To insure a supply of apprentices who will have completed theirapprenticeships four years hence, for example, employment of a sufficientnumber of first year apprentices must begin in the present year. Thus,if shortages in the number of skilled craftsmen are anticipated in the future,employment of apprentices must be increased in the present--even if cur-rently depressed employment opportunities for apprentices may make suchincreased employment economically difficult or impossible.

Much of the current discussion of the apprenticeship system in theUnited States centers about the effectiveness with which it has added to,or can be expected to add to, the supply of skilled craftsmen. Considerableemphasis has also been devoted to the relationship between the presentnumber of apprentices and the projected need for skilled craftsmen in thefuture. Relatively little consideration has been given to the apprenticeshipsystem itself, and to the socio-economic factors which affect the employer'sdecision to hire apprentices, the decision by a young man to become anapprentice, or the decision by an already indentured apprentice to completehis term of apprenticeship or to accept employment elsewhere.

These three factors are examined in the context of apprenticeshipprimarily as a form of employment which should be considered not only interms of its relationship to the supply and demand for craftsmen, but alsoas a response to the complex tides of the labor market and of the economy.

This report was prepared by David J. Farber in the Division ofResearch, Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training, Mildred S. Barber, Chief.

1-- THE NUMBER OF NEW APPRENTICES

The Ratio of Apprentices to Craftsmen

Between 225, 000 and 250, 000 bona fide apprentices are estimated tohave been actively engaged in learning their crafts in 1962.11 About 160, 000of these apprentices were receiving their training under programs registeredeither with the Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training or with State appren-ticeship agencies, and it is the data for registered apprentices for the1947-62 period on which this report is based.

In the majority of cases, the 160, 000 registered apprentices werereceiving training in accordance with apprenticeship standards established

1/ See Number of Apprentices: 1962, Bureau of Apprenticeship andTraining, U. S. Department of Labor, 1964.

by collective bargaining agreements. Typically, such agreements providefor a ratio of apprentices to craftsmen. The effect of these ratios on theemployment of apprentices has never been established. Available evidencesuggests, however, that despite the widespread use of these provisions inlabor agreements, there is no necessary relationship between the numberof employed craftsmen and the number of employed apprentices, or between

the year-to-year changes in the number of employed workers in eithergroup.

During the post-World War 11 period, for example, as table 1 andfigure 1 make clear, the number of new apprentice registrants declinedfrom 94, 000 in 1947 to 49, 000 in 1961, while the annual average numberof employed male craftsmen increased from about 7. 6 million in 1947 to8. 4 million in 1961. Furthermore, in any number of instances, there weredifferences between the direction of year-to-year changes in the number of

new apprentices and in the annual average number of employed male crafts-men. From 1947 to 1948, the number of new apprentices declined while

the annual average number of craftsmen increased; other contradictoryyear-to-year changes in the employment of apprentices and the annual aver-age number of craftsmen also occurred in 1949-50, 1951-52, 1952-53, and1960-61. Measurement of the extent to which the annual average employ-ment of craftsmen and the employment of new apprentices were relatedduring the entire 1947-62 period resulted in a negative correlation which

was statistically insignificant. 2/

Statistical inference, therefore, indicates that there is no significantrelationship between changes in the number of new apprentices and the

number of journeymen craftsmen. This indication also seems to be borneout by another factor not directly related to economic change but whichshould be mentioned in passing. This is the apprentice ratios to journeymenincluded in many labor agreements. This factor is often cited as a deter-mining and limiting influence on the number of new apprentices hired inany one year. Impartial observation of this factor gives ample groundsfor concluding that the apprenticeship policies reflected in such agreementsff... seem to have had virtually no effect on the number of journeymen.The number of apprentices has been small but this has been due to the

reluctance of most employers to train skilled workers rather than to unionpolicies. Indeed, nonunion employers who were free from uniqn restrictionshave trained fewer apprentices than did union employers. "If

i

2/ It should be noted that the statistics on new apprentice registrantsare annual unduplicated employment data, but the statistics on craftsmenrefer to annual average employment in this occupational group. The com-parison, therefore, is not intended as a precise measure of the craftsmen--new apprentice registrant ratio because, in a very real sense the data areat best only grossly comparable.

3/ Slichter, Healy, and Livernash, The Impact of Collective Bargainingon Managemiint, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C. , 1960, p. 74.

745-805 0-64-2 - 3 -

Table 1--Number and indices of annual average employed male craftsmen andnew apprentice registrants, 1947-62

Year

NuMber Indices (1957-59 = 100.0)

Annual averageemployed malecraftsmen andkindred workers

(000)

New

apprenticeregistrants

Annual averageemployed malecraftsmen andkindred workers

Newapprentice

registrants

1947 7:565 94,238 90.7 164.1

1948 7:924 85,918 95.0 149.6

1949 7:453 66,745 89.3 116.2

1950 7)482 60,186 89.7 104.8

1951 8:193 63,881 98.2 111.2

1952 8,480 63,055 101.7 109.8

1953 8,325 73,198 99.8 127.5

1954 8,073 58,970 96.8 102.7

1955 8,114 66,747 97.3 116.2

1956 8,457 72,869 101.4 126.9

1957 8:432 58,463 101.1 101.8

1958 8,244 50,134 98.8 87.3

1959 8,349 63,679 100.1 110.9

1960 8:338 58,129 99.9 101.2

1961 8,407 48,889 100.8 85.1

1962 8,455 55,321 101.4 96.3

Source: Table A-7, 1964 Manpower Report of the President, p. 199 andTrends in Apprentice Registrations, 1941-62, Bureau of Apprenticeship andTraining, U. S. Department of Labor.

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Unemployment and the Number of Apprentices

Because no relationship could be discerned between the apprentice-ratioprovisions in collective bargaining agreements and the number ofnew appren-tices, it was decided to investigate the relationship between year-to-year fluc-tuations in the number of apprentices to some of the many indices of economicchange. More explicitly, it was hypothesized that both the number of new ap-prentices and the rate at which they complete their terms of apprenticeshipare related to fluctuations in unemployment. The hypothesis appea._.; realistic,in the light of generally declining trends in apprentice registrations for thepost-World War II period, as shown in the Appendix.

Table 2 shows clearly the secular decline in the number of new appren-tice registrants. During the post-World War II years, the number of new ap-prentices decreased from an average of 82,300 per year for 1947-49; to 63,858for 1950-54; to 62,378 for 1955-59; to a drastically new low of 54,113 for1960-62. While it is possible that the 1947-49 average--because it reflects thesudden influx of returning World War Il veterans anxious to resume interruptedcareers--is abnormally high, the decline as measured from 1950-54 or from1955-59 to 1960-62 is still of substantial magnitude. The average annual numberof new apprentice registrants in 1960-62 is approximately 16 percent below theaverage for 1950-54, and about 13 percent below the annual average for 1955-59.The evidence of a substantial and continuing decline in the number of new ap-prentice registrants is clear and unmistakable. The extent to whi:th this declineis caused by lack of interest--either on the part of employers, of unions, or ofyoung people--or by the increased frequency and severity of unemployment--cannot, of course, be determined from these data.

Evidence is available which indicates that irregularity of employment,and unemployment, affects apprentices to a greater degree than other occu-pational groups. Data from the 1960 Census, for example, indicate that amongmale workers, only 52 percent of the apprentices had been employed for 50-52weeks in 1959, as contrasted with 76 percent of the clerical workers, 75 per-cent of :.he sales workers and 68 percent of the craftsmen. Indeed, the pro-portion of apprentices employed the year-round was substantially lower thanthe 63 percent of the operatives, or the 66 per9ent of the service workers whohad been employed for 50-52 weeks in 1959.1_V A survey of apprentices in theState of California, also disclosed that as of April 1962, a relatively largenumber of apprentices had been unemployed for an extended period of time.Of the 6,172 apprentices who responded to questions on employment, 697(11 percent) had been unemployed for more than 12 weeks, and 1,492 (24 percent)had been unemployed for five or more weeks during the previous 12 months...5iThese data suggest that demand for the services of apprentices is quite elastic,and fluctuates considerably from year to year. Unemployment might therefore

4/ Table 208, U. S. Census of Population, 1960, U. S. Summary,PC(1)-71D.

5/ Preliminary Report on Survey of Active Apprentices, Division ofApprenticeship Standards, Department of Industrial Relations, State ofCalifornia, April 1962.

6 _)

Table 2--Number andindices of unemployment and new apprentice registrants,1947-62

Year

Number Indices (1957-59 . 100.0)

Unemployment

Newapprentice

registrants

Unemployment(in millions)

Newapprentice

registrants

1947 94,238 2.4 164.1 63.2

1948 85,918 2.3 149.6 60.5

1949 66,745 3.7 116.2 97.4

1950 60,186 3.4 104.8 89.5

1951 63,881 2.1 111.2 55.3

1952 63,055 1.9 109.8 50.0

1953 73,198 1.9 127.5 50.0

1954 58,970 3.6 102.7 94.7

1955 66,747 2.9 116.2 76.3

1956 72,869 2.8 126.9 73.7

1957 58,463 2.9 101.8 76.3

1958 50,134 4.7 87.3 123.7

1959 63,679 3.8 110.9 100.0

1960 58,129 3.9 101.2 102.6

1961 48,889 4.8 85.1 126.3

1962 55,321 4.0 96.3 105.3

Source: Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training and Table A-1, 1964Manpower Report of the President, p. 195.

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affect, or perhaps determine, the number of apprentices in training. Tomeasure yearly fluctuations in unemployment, use was made of an index ofunemployment, utilizing 1957-59 as a base. 6/ This index, together with theindex of the annual number of new registrants, was graphed for the 1947-62period, as shown in figure 2.

Figure 2 illustrates the close negative relationship between annualchanges in the indices of unemployment and fluctuations in the number of newapprentice registrants. With the exception of 1950--a year in which the KoreanWar began and which may have resulted in a reduction in the number of youngpeople available for apprenticeships--the years in which unemployment is atthe highest levels are almost invariably the years in which the number of newapprentice registrants fall to their lowest levels. Thus, in the recessions of1954, 1958, and 1961, as unemployment peaks, the number of new apprenticeregistrants drops to successively lower levels, and then begins to increase asthe level of unemployment in the succeeding years of the cycle falls. The in-verse relationship between these two variables is reflected in a rather highnegative correlation coefficient, which was . 68 (significant at the 1 percentlevel). Not only are the unemployment rates of young people substantiallyhigher than average, but it is apparent from the correlation, and from figure 2,that changes in unemployment are closely associated with changes in the numberof new apprentice registrants.

2--THE APPRENTICESHIP COMPLETION RATE

Two factors vitally affect the total number of apprentices who completetheir terms of apprenticeship and become full-fledg3d journeymen craftsmen.The first--the number of newly registered apprentices--sets the outermostlimits. Other things being equal, the number of apprentices who will suc-cessfully complete their terms of apprenticeship cannot exceed the initialnumber of new registrants. The relationship between unemployment and thenumber of new registrants has already been discussed.

Apprentice Completion Rates

The second major element vthich helps determine the number of appren-tices who successfully complete their terms is the completion rate. To cal-culate completion rates, the number of apprentices completing their terms inany of the years of the 1950-62 period was expressed as a percentage of thenumber of apprentices who were newly registered four years earlier. For1950, for example, the number of apprentices who completed their terms inthatyear was expressedas a percentage of the number who were newly regis-tered in 1947 (Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training data on apprentices areon a calendar year basis. Thus, the 1947-50 period is inclusive--i. e. , itencompasses four calendar years). Since the typical apprenticeship term is

6/ Relationships between these two variables have been analyzed on thebasis of fluctuations in their respective indices because of the differences inmagnitude of the two variables.

Table 3--Number and indices of new apprentice registrants, unemployment,and apprenticeship completion rates

Year

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

Number Indices (1957.59 = 100.0)

Newregistrants'

94,238

85,918

660745

60,186

63,881

63,055

73,198

58,970

66,747

72,869

58,463

50,134

63,679

58,129

48,889

55,321

Completionrates (per100 new

registrantsUnemployment four years New Completion(in millionsl_preyiously) registrants Uhemployment rate

2.4

2.3

3.7

3.4

2.1

1.9

1.9

3.6

2.9

2.8

2.9

4.7

3.8

3.9

4.8

4.0

40.9 164.1 63.2 81.8

45.1 149.6 6o.5 90.2

49.1 116.2 97.4 98.2

47.2 104.8 89.5 94.4

42.5 111.2 55.3 85.0

38.8 109.8 50.0 77.6

36.2 127.5 50.0 72.4

50.5 102.7 94.7 101.0

44.7 116.2 76.3 89.4

49.0 126.9 73.7 98.0

52.9 101.8 76.3 105.8

56.4 87.3 123.7 112.8

40.7 110.9 100.0 81.4

......._ 101.2 102.6

....... 85.1 126.3 ----

-.... 96.3 105.3

Source: Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training and Table A-1, 1964Manpower Report of the President, p. 195.

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four years in duration, this technique simulates a cohort, because it assumesthat all apprentices who completed their terms in any given year were membersof the class which first entered into apprenticeship four years earlier. In thestrictest sense, this is not completely accurate since there is a known numberof apprentices who are reinstated each year, following a period in which theyhad withdrawnfrom apprenticeship status or had been temporarily suspended.There is thus a certain degree of error in the data on completion rates. Thenumber of reinstatees, however, is relatively small, and the error involveddoes not significantly affect the general magnitudes of the completion ratesshown in table 3.

The data in table 3 indicate that in none of the years of the post-WorldWar II period did the completion rate reach the 60 percent level. In mostinstances, the number of completees per 100 new registrants fluctuated between40 and 50, averaging 45 per 100 new registrants in 1947-49; 43 per 100 for1950-54; and 49 per 100 for 1955-59. (As used here, completion rates forthese years, it should be remembered, relate to the number of new registrantsin 1943-45, 1946-50 and 1951-55, respectively. ) Despite the fact that thecompletion rate per 100 new registrants increased by almost 14 percent from1950-54 to 1955-59, this increase was not of sufficient magnitude to counter-balance the proportionately greater decline in the number of new registrants.Thus, the average annual number of apprentices completing their terms ofapprenticeship declined from 33,119 for 1950-54, to 29,256 for 1955-59, andto a new low of 28,373 for 1960-62. From 1950-54 to 1960-62, therafore,the average annual number of apprentices who completed their terms of ap-prenticeship declined by more than 14 percent,

Unemployment and Completion Rates

The fluctuations in completion rates, and the increase in these ratesfrom 1950-54 to 1955-59, appear to be closely related to the level of unemploy-ment, and to the increased frequency and intensity of unemployment followingthe recession year of 1954. As figure 3 indicates, from 1947 through 1962,the indices of,completion rates and of unemployment follow substantially par-allEl paths.1/ In the recession years of 1949, 1954, and 1958 the level ofunemployment peaks--as do the completion rates. In the interim years, thedownward movements of the index of unemployment are generally duplicatedby the movements of the index of apprentice completion rates. The closeassociation between these two variables is indicated by a positive correlationcoefficient of .72 (significant at the 1 percent level)--an unusually closeassociation indeed.

3UNEMPLOYMENT, NEW REGISTRANTS, AND COMPLETION RATES

Apprenticeship and Cyclical Change

Figure 4 presents in graphic form a composite picture of the two ele-n-.ents which, for analytical purposes, have been considered independently.

7/ See footnote 8.

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Changes in both the number of new registrants, and the rate at which theycomplete their terms of apprenticeship, it has been hypothesized, are relatedto fluctuations in the level of unemployment. Annual changes in the number ofnew registrants, the data indicate, vary inversely with changes in the numberof unemployed. Fluctuations in the completion rates, however, parallel closelythe year-to-year changes in the level of unemployment. The extent to whichthese three variables are closely associated is measured by the two unusuallyhigh coefficients of correlation.

These findings suggest a theory which may contribute to some under-standing of current trends in apprenticeship. There is evidence that theapprentice-craftsmen ratio provisions in labor agreements--which purportto control the number of young people who may be employed as apprentices--in fact are not determinative, but permissive. Examination of many of theseprovisions indicates that generally they set limits to the number of apprenticeswhc may be indentured; usually, they do not prescribe a minimum number whomust be apprenticed. Since apprentices must hold jobs if they are to be trainedin their crafts, demand for their services fluctuates in accordance with eco-nomic conditions and changes in unemployment levels. In recession yearswhen unemploymentis high, few unions or employers will agree to the employ-ment of new apprentices when those already in training on the job, or perhapseven skilled journeymen, may be faced with joblessness. Since apprenticesare least productive during the initial year of their terms of apprenticeship,in recession years employers are likely to be loath to encumber their workforce with newly registered apprentices. As a consequence, in recessionyears the number of newly registered apprentices tends to fall. As alternativesources of more lucrative employment decline during the downturn in the busi-ness cycle, apprentices already employed and in training find it increasinglyadvantageous to retain their apprenticeships. Their completion rates, there-fore, tend to rise as the number of new registrants declines.

During the upturn in the cycle these tendencies are reversed. As un-employment declines, demand for new apprentices may be assumed to increase,and the number of new registrants rises. Concomitantly, however, duringthe upturn apprentices already in trainin.g discover that alternative sources ofemployment/appear to offer greater opportunities, or earnings which exceedtheir own.§1 They leave their apprenticeship--and depending upon the extentto which they have completed their terms of apprenticeship--acceptjobs eitheras journeymen, or perhaps in some other occupation. In either eventuality,the "pull" of other and apparently more attractive jobs results in a substantialdecline in the completion rate.

8/ In 1959, median earnings of apprentices, as reported in the 1960DecennTal Census were $3, 486. Median earnings of operatives were $4, 299;of operatives in manufacturing industries were $4, 447; of bus drivers, $4, 411;of assemblers, $4, 491; of truck drivers, $4, 221, In these and other semi-skilled occupations, median earnings were higher than those of apprentices.Presumably, workers were required to have much less extensive training thanapprentices. Table 208, U. S. Census of Population, 1960, U. S. Summary,PC(1)-1D.

- 14 -

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- 15 -

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The Downward Trend in Apprenticeship

The association between rising unemployment and the declining numbersof apprentices in the post-World War II period is reflected in figure 5. Eachpoint plotted in that figure indicates for a given year in the 1947-62 period therelationship between the index of unemployment and the index of the numberof newly registered apprentices. For the period as a whole, the data indicate,an increase of 1 percent in the index of unemployment, on the average, has beenaccompanied by a decrease of 0. 6 percent in the index of newly registeredapprentices. Figure 6, on the other hand, indicates that during the same perioda 1 percent increase in the index of unemployment, on the average, has beenaccompanied by a 0. 4 percent increase in the index of completion rates. Theindex of newly registeredapprentices, these data L.:licate, reacts to increasingunemployment even more sensitively than the index of the completion rate ofapprentices already indentured. Thus, even though completion rates rise withincreasing unemployment, the increase is not as great as the percentage declinein newly registeredapprentices. Hence, the downward trend in apprenticeshipin the post-World War II period.

4EDUCATIONAL AND OCCUPATIONAL FACTORS

College Enrollment and Apprenticeship

The declining trend in apprenticeship since the close of World War riprobably cannot be attributed to anyone single cause. Certainly, rising unem-ployment and major changes in the occupational composition of the employedlabor force may be said to have played major roles. Further research mayindicate that current trends in education have also been partially responsible.Calculations based on data published by the U. S. Department of Health,Education and Welfare, indicate that the proportion of high school graduateswho become first-time college students has increased substantially from 1950to 1960. During this period, as shown in table 4, the number of first-timecollege students per 1, 000 high school graduates increased from 406 in 1950to 528 in 1960.

The upward trend in the proportion of high school graduates enteringcollege may mean that some of the abler high school graduates, who in pre-World War II years might have become apprentices, are now continuing theireducation at the college or university level. As a result, the young peopleinterested in becoming apprentices may not be of quite as high a calibre as inthe pre-World War II years, and those who enter, therefore, may be less ableto complete their terms of apprenticeship. Further research in this area maydisclose some significant similarities between trends in education and inapprenticeship.

- 16 -

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Year ofhigh schoolgraduation

NuMber of first-time

college students per1,000 high school graduates

1950 40.61951 41.61952 44.81953 5o.81954 51.11955 51.21956 51.81957 52.81958 52.31959 52.81960 52.8

Sour ce: Based on data in "Retention Ratesof Fifth Graders to College Entrance, " appearingin Trends, 1962 Edition, U. S. Department ofHealth, Education and Welfare, p. 46.

The Craftsmen - Professional and Technician Ratio

Perhaps of more immediate interest as an explanation of the decliningnumber of apprentices in the post-World War 11 period is the substantial in-crease in the proportion of professional and technical workers in the employedlabor force. While annual average employment of professional and technicalworkers has increased spectacularlyfrom 3.8 million in 1947 to 7. 7 millionin 1961--the annual average number of employed craftsmen has risen onlymodestly, moving from 7. 8 million in 1947 to only 8. 6 million in 1961. Rela-tively, therefore, the annual average number of craftsmen, as shown infigure 7, has declined in importance in the employed labor force. In 1947,the annual average number of employed craftsmen was twice as great as theannual average number of professional and technical workers; in 1961, thisproportion had fallen to a ratio of 1. 12 craftsmen to 1. 00 professional andtechnical workers (figure 7).

The calculation of these ratios is, of course, affected by the substantialincrease during the 1950-60 decade in the number of accountants, teachers,and other professional workers not directly involved in the productive process.It might be argued, therefore, that the ratios shown in table 5 may not reflectthe actual ratio of craftsmen to professionals and technicians in the industrialsector of the economy.

There is little reason to doubt that the relative decline in the number ofcraftsmen vis a vis professionals and technicians, as shown in table 5, is arealistic approximation of the tendencies in the industrial sector. In con-struction, for example, where the proportion of professionals not directlyemployed in the productive process may be presumed to be relatively low, thenumber of male professional and technical workers in 1960, ao indicated by

- 18 -

Table 5- -Annual average employment: Ratio of craftsmen, foremenand kindredworkers to professional, technical and kindred workers, 1947-61

Year

(1)

Craftsmen, foremen

and kindred workers

(2)

Professional and

technical workers

(3)

Ratio of(1) to (2)

1947 7,754 3,795 2.o4

1948 8,119 3,977 2.04

1949 7,625 4,028 1.89

1950 7,670 41490 1.71

1951 8,434 4,788 1.76

1952 8,743 5,092 1.72

1953 8,588 5,448 1.58

1954 8,311 5,588 1.49

1955 8,328 5,792 1.44

1956 8,693 6,096 1.43

1957 8,664 6,468 1.34

1958 8,469 6,961 1.22

1959 8,561 7,143 1.20

1960 8,560 7,475 1.15

1961 8,623 7,705 1.12

1962 8,678 8,040 1.08

Source: Table A-7, 1964 Manpower Report of the President, p. 199.

table 6, was 34 percent greater than in 1950, but the number ol craftsmen wasonly 5 percent greater. As a result, the ratio of craftsmen to professionalandtechnical workers fell from 15 to 1 in 1950 to 12 to 1 in 1960, a decline of 21percent. In manufacturing, the number of male craftsmen in 1960 was 21 per-cent greater than in 1950, but the number of professional and technical workersin 1960 almost doubled. As a consequence, the ratio of craftsmen to pro-fessional and technical workers decreased from 4. 4 to 1 in 1950 to 2. 7 to 1 in1960, a decline of 39 percent.

Table 6--Ratio of craftsmen, foremen and kindred workers to professional,technical and kindred workers, 1950 and 1960

Year

Manufacturing Construction(1)

Craftsmen,

foremen and

kindred

workers

(2)

Professional

and technical

workers

(3)

Ratio of

(1) to (2)

(4)

Craftsmen,

foremen and

kindred

workers

(5)

Professional

and technical

workers

(6)

Ratio of

(4) to (5)

Total, both sexes

2,845,300 704,631 4.0 1,951,383 130,357 15.01950

1960 3,431,044 1,328,491 2.6 2,049,036 175,555 11.71960 as percent

of 1950 120.6 188.5 65.0 105.0 134.7 78.0

Males

2,714,610 620,406 4.4 1,936,936 127,332 15.21950

1960 3,289,831 1,206,568 2.7 2,038,776 170,576 12.01960 as percent

of 1950 121.2 194.5 61.4 105.3 134.0 78.9

Source: U. S. Census of Population, U. S. Summary: Detailed Charac-teristics. Table 209, for 1960 data; table 134 for 1950 data.

Paralleling the decline in the annual average number of craftsmen rela-tive to professional and technical workers during this period, has been a gradualand persistent increase in unemployment rates among craftsmen. Indeed, astable 7 indicates, unemployment rates of craftsmen and of all workers havenot differed very much in the years since V-J Day. Although unemploymentamong professional and technical workers also rose during these years, itnever exceeded the 2 percent level from 1947 to 1961, and in many of theseyears fluctuated between 1. 0 percent and 1. 7 percent.

- 20 -

Table 7--Unemployment rates for craftsmen,foremen and kindred workers, and for all workers

Year Craftsmen et al All workers

1947 3.8 3.6

1948 2.9 3.4

1949 5.9 5.5

1950 5.6 5.0

1951 2.6 3.0

1952 2.4 2.7

1953 2.6 2.5

1954 4.9 5.0

1955 4.0 4.0

1956 3.2 3.8

1957 3.8 4.3

1958 6.8 6.8

1959 5.3 5.5

1960 5.3 5.6

1961 6.3 6.7

1962 5.1 5.6

Sour ce: Table A-9, 1964 Manpower Repor tof the President, p. 201.

CONCLUSION

Of the many factors which impinge on the apprenticeship system, onlythree have been considered: Unemployment, changes in the occupationalcomposition of workers in industry, and the increasing number of high schoolgraduates who enter college or the university. Of these factors, the analysishas emphasized unemployment, largely because of the obvious, but long neg-lected need to consider apprenticeship in terms of labor market forces.

The analysis has suggested a direct association between changes in thecompletion rates of apprentices and unemployment, as well as an inverse re-lationship between the number of new apprentices and the level of employment.The long-term prognosis for the American apprenticeship system, as manysee it, is pessimistic--"many thoughtful students . . . seriously believe thatapprenticeship is now obsolete. "9/ Others, notquite as pessimistic, believe"that it is not completely moribgnd, " and "that the policy and the programshould be radically revamped. "_91

It is possible, however, that neither optimism nor pessimism are inorder, that judgments about apprenticeship based solely on past trends areirrelevant. To the extent that efforts to reduce unemployment, for example,are successful, it appears likely that apprentices may increase in number.

9/ Felician F. Foltman, "Apprenticeship and Skill Training--A TrialBalance', " Monthly Labor Review, January 1964.

- 21 -

Recognition that apprenticeship affects the public interest, may also result informulation of public policies which could result in substantial increases inthe number of apprentices. It is also possible that quantitative evaluationsof apprenticeship are not the sole, or even the best means of judging the placeof the system in the American economy. Although it is commonly known thatapprenticeship serves to develop skilled craftsmen, it is frequently forgottenthat this form of training also serves as a major means of training and de-veloping leadmen, foremen, and supervisorswithout whom management of

American industry would face unsurmountable problems. In the words of anexecutive of one of the "Big Three" in the automotive industry, the apprentice-ship system in his firm has utilized "apprentice graduates in positions rangingfrom analyst to executive Vice-President."EV In his firm, he noted, a recentsurvey of apprentice graduates indicated that

"33.7 percent of the apprentice graduates . . . were insalaried positions. Of this number, 51 were analysts, 37coordinators, 252 designers, 299 engineers . . . 454 super-,visors, 31 technicians, and 14 training specialists. ".12/

10/ Proceedings, 15th Annual Southern States Apprenticeship Confer-ence, July 25-27, 1963.

APPENDIX

Registered apprentices in training, new registrants, completions, andcancellations, 1941-62

(adjusted to account for reporting revisions)

Year

In training

on

January 1--New

registrations 1/ Completions Cancellations -gi

In trainingon

December 31--

1941 181300 141177 11289 5,051 26,137

1942 261137 201701 21011 41683 40,144

1943 4o,144 111661 11715 6,975 43,115

1944 43,115 7,775 21122 8,197 40,571

1945 401571 231040 11568 5,078 56,965

1946 561965 84,730 21042 81436 131,217

1947 1311217 941238 71311 251190 1921954

1948 1921954 851918 13,375 351117 2301380

1949 2301380 661745 251045 411257 230,823 '

1950 2301823 601186 38,533 491747 202,729

1951 2021729 631881 381754 56,845 1711011

1952 171,011 631055 321752 42,782 158,532

1953 1581532 731198 281378 431094 160,258

1954 1601258 58,970 271176 33,377 1581675

1955 1581675 661747 241445 261255 1741722

1956 1741722 721869 261508 321946 188,137

1957 188,137 581463 291760 311149 1851691

1958 1851691 501134 29,824 281306 1771695

(1959 177,695 631679 351741 391628 1661005

1960 1661005 581129 301920 32,086 161,128

1961 161,128 481889 28,282 261086 1551649

1962 1551649 551321 251918 261434 1581616

1963 1581616

*Major revision in reporting system effected this year.1/ Includes reinstatements.2/ Includes suspensions.Source: U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Apprenticeship and

Training, Division of Research.

- 24 -0 S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1964 0-745-605