Rethinking Global Development: Crisis as Opportunity

Duncan Green, OxfamNovember 2010

Crisis = Danger + Opportunity

Danger 1: Hunger

Source: WFP

From an Age of Development

To an Age of Scarcity ?

Danger 2: Climate change

© Crown copyright Met Office

3 options (and only three)

Step change in technology (20 Manhattan projects)

Accept less global growth Runaway climate change

Danger 3: Financial chaos: what 5,000 kwacha buys in Zambia

Za

mb

ia1

99

3-2

00

3

Bra

zil 19

93

-20

03

Decreasing Inequalities

Annual % Gini

Annual % Gini Change

0

-1

-2

-3

Danger 4: Inequality - falling in some countries…

Ho

nd

uras 1986-1999

Co

lom

bia 1991-2003

Rw

and

a 1985-2000

Increasing Inequalities

…but rising in many more

Annual % Gini Change

4

3

2

1

0

And Opportunity? Shocks crucial in

Changing attitudes and beliefs Abolition of slavery Women’s suffrage

Creating New Institutions National health service United Nations

Changes to role of state income taxes

So where might current food + finance shock lead?

Already happening G8 -> G20 Limited reregulation of finance Rediscovery of role of agriculture New global taxes (eg FTT)?

But so far, only minimal signs of Climate change response New focus on inequality and redistribution Rethink on well-being or environmental constraints

on growth

What's needed:What's needed:

Active Active CitizensCitizens

What's needed:What's needed:

Effective Effective States States

Thankyou! And for more information… From Poverty to Power blog on

oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/