returns to higher education – some doubts and alternative views john thompson
TRANSCRIPT
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Returns to higher education – some doubts and alternative views
John Thompson
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Student choice
• Whether to study
• What to study
• Where to study
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Why go to university?
“Universities transform lives - the typical graduate earns £31,000 a year as against £19,000 a year for a non-graduate. “ Willetts
“on average, graduates tend to earn
substantially more than people with A-levels who did not go to university. Projected over a working lifetime, the difference is something like £100,000” – Directgov
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Population
• Students at English state schools and colleges
• At least two A-levels or equivalents
• At key stage 5 in 2008
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>= 3 A levels
Int Bac 2 A levels
BTEC Dip
BTEC Cert
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
HENot HE
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1201401601802002202402602803003203403600%
4%
8%
12%
HENot HE
Tariff Points
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Student choice
• Whether to study
• What to study
• Where to study
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Student choice
• Whether to study
• What to study
• Where to study
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Earnings differentials for male and female graduates compared to non-graduates with 2+ A-levels
Men 22%
Women 36%
Women - Men 14%
Derived from data presented in Walker and Zhub (2011), ‘Differences by degree’
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Earnings differentials for male and female graduates compared to
ALL non-graduates with 2+ A-levels
Men 43%
Women 15%
Women - Men -28%
Derived from data presented in Walker and Zhub (2011), ‘Differences by degree’
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Student choice
• Whether to study
• What to study
• Where to study
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Student choice
• Whether to study
• What to study
• Where to study
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Mis-selling?
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Policy development
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Policy development
• How many places should be funded?
• Share paid from the public purse?
• Subject subsidy?
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Social returns
• Productivity versus sorting
• Impact on others
• Who is affected?
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Social returns
• Productivity versus sorting
• Impact on others
• Who is affected?
![Page 18: Returns to higher education – some doubts and alternative views John Thompson](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062318/551b1fc55503462e578b6257/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Social returns
• Productivity versus sorting
• Impact on others
• Who is affected?
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From estimates to policy
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The cost of student loans
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The catch
“You must agree to repay your loan with the regulations at the time the repayments are due and as they are amended”
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What should be done?
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Those estimating
• Set out all assumptions• Range estimates covering different scenarios• Detailed descriptions• Data extracts and intermediate datasets
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Pundits, politicians, policy makers
When advising prospective students:-• Be circumspect
In policy discussions:-• Do not treat approximate and uncertain
estimates as hard facts