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  • 8/11/2019 Reuters - Water's Edge

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    The crisis of rising sea levels

    Waters Edge

    A Reuters Investigation

    As the seas rise, a slow-motion disaster gnaws at Americasshores

    By Ryan McNeill, Deborah J. Nelsonand Duff Wilson

    Filed Sept. 4, 2014, 1 p.m. GMT

    Part 1: A Reuters analysis finds that flooding is increasing along much of the nations coastline, forcingmany communities into costly, controversial struggles with a relentless foe.WALLOPS ISLAND, Virginia Missions flown from the NASA base here have documented some of the

    most dramatic evidence of a warming planet over the past 20 years: the melting of polar ice, a forcecontributing to a global rise in ocean levels.The Wallops Flight Facilitys relationship with rising seas doesnt end there. Its billion-dollar space launchcomplex occupies a barrier island that's drowning under the impact of worsening storms and flooding.NASA's response? Rather than move out of harms way, officials have added more than $100 million innew structures over the past five years and spent $43 million more to fortify the shoreline with sand. Nearlya third of that new sand has since been washed away.

    Across a narrow inlet to the north sits the island town of Chincoteague, gateway to a national wildliferefuge blessed with a stunning mile-long recreational beach a major tourist draw and source of bigbusiness for the community. But the sea is robbing the townspeople of their main asset.The beach has been disappearing at an average rate of 10 to 22 feet (3 to 7 meters) a year. The access road

    and a 1,000-car parking lot have been rebuilt five times in the past decade because of coastal flooding, at atotal cost of $3 million.Officials of the wildlife refuge say they face a losing battle against rising seas. In 2010, they proposed to

    close the beach and shuttle tourists by bus to a safer stretch of sandy shoreline.The town revolted. Like many local residents, Wanda Thornton, the towns representative on theAccomack County board of supervisors, accepts that the sea is rising, but is skeptical that climate changeand its effects have anything to do with the erosion of the beach. As a result, Im just not convinced that itrequires the drastic change that some people think it does, she said.

    Four years on, after a series of angry public meetings, the sea keeps eating the shore, and the governmentkeeps spending to fix the damage.Wallops officials and the people of Chincoteague are united at the waters edge in a battle against risingseas.

    All along the ragged shore of Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic coast of the Delmarva Peninsula, north intoNew England and south into Florida, along the Gulf Coast and parts of the West Coast, people, businessesand governments are confronting rising seas not as a future possibility. For them, the oceans rise is a

    troubling everyday reality.This is the first in a series of articles examining the phenomenon of rising seas, its effects on the United

    States, and the countrys response to an increasingly watery world. Other stories will show how othernations are coping.In cities like Norfolk, Virginia, and Annapolis, Maryland, coastal flooding has become more frequent.Beyond the cities, seawater and tidal marsh have consumed farmland and several once-inhabited islands.Here in Accomack County alone, encroaching seawater is converting an estimated 50 acres (20 hectares) of

    farmland into wetlands each year, according to a 2009 Environmental Protection Agency study.

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    It breaks my heart to think about it, said Grayson Chesser, a decoy carver whose ancestors arrived in theChesapeake Bay area four centuries ago. He lives outside Saxis, a town thats losing ground to the water.Some nearby villages have disappeared altogether. Youve got to deal with the fact that its happening and what are you going to do with those of us on the edge?

    Its a question the U.S. government is dodging. More than 300 counties claim a piece of more than 86,000miles (138,000 km) of tidal coastline in the United States, yet no clear national policy determines whichlocations receive help to protect their shorelines. That has left communities fighting for attention andresources, lest they be abandoned to the sea, as is playing out in Chincoteague.If we cant make a decision about rising sea level in a parking lot, were in trouble as a nation, said LouisHinds, former manager of Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge.Tidal waters worldwide have climbed an average of 8 inches (20 cm) over the past century, according to

    the 2014 National Climate Assessment. The two main causes are the volume of water added to oceans fromglacial melt and the expansion of that water from rising sea temperatures.In many places, including much of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, an additional factor makes the problemworse: The land is sinking. This process, known as subsidence, is due in part to inexorable geologicalshifts. But another major cause is the extraction of water from underground reservoirs for industrial and

    public water supplies. As aquifers are drained, the land above them drops, a process that can be slowed byreducing withdrawals.WATER EVERYWHERE (from left): Seepage of seawater into coastal marshes is believed to cause ghostforests like these on Assateague Island, Virginia. Nuisance flooding inundated the historic City Dock in

    downtown Annapolis, Maryland, several times this spring. NASA has had to invest tens of millions ofdollars into seawalls and replenished beaches to protect launch pads and other infrastructure at its WallopsFlight Facility in Virginia. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque; Mary F. Calvert; Kevin LamarqueYouve got to deal with the fact that its happening and what are you going to do with those of us on theedge?

    Grayson Chesser, lifelong resident, Accomack County, VirginiaFor this article, Reuters analyzed millions of data entries and spent months reporting from affectedcommunities to show that, while government at all levels remains largely unable or unwilling to address the

    issue, coastal flooding on much of the densely populated Eastern Seaboard has surged in recent years as sealevels have risen.These findings, first reported July 10, arent derived from computer simulations like those used to modelfuture climate patterns, which have been attacked as unreliable by skeptics of climate change research. Theanalysis is built on a time-tested measuring technology tide gauges that has been used for more than a

    century to help guide seafarers into port.Reuters gathered more than 25 million hourly readings from National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration tide gaugesat nearly 70 sites on the Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts and compared them toflood thresholds documented by the National Weather Service.

    The analysis was then narrowed to include only the 25 gauges with data spanning at least five decades. Itshowed that during that period, the average number of days a year that tidal waters reached or exceededflood thresholds increased at all but two sites and tripled at more than half of the locations.

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    ABOUT THE

    ANALYSIS

    When Reuters set out to measure the frequency of flooding along the U.S. coastline, it turned to one of thenations longest-running sentinels of the changing oceans: tide gauges.These devices, originally deployed to assist navigation by mariners, are critical to understanding theinteraction between land and sea. The gauges measure the level of the surface of the sea, relative to a fixedpoint on land.

    Some gauges have been in operation for a century or more, providing a long-term view of sea levelsunavailable from satellites. A gauge in San Francisco, installed in 1854, provides the WesternHemispheres longest-running continuous record of sea levels.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operates more than 200 tide gauges on the U.S.coast and the shores of the Great Lakes. Most of the data is online and available to the public throughmultiple portals operated by NOAA. The gauges give a very unbiased view of whats going on along thecoast, said William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer.

    At nearly 70 of those gauges, National Weather Service forecasters have published thresholds for when

    flooding can begin. Reuters downloaded more than 25 million hourly readings from those gauges andcompared them to the flood thresholds.Reuters then determined how many days in each meteorological year had at least one hour when the sealevel equaled or exceeded the flood threshold. A meteorological year, from May 1 through April 30, is used

    so the winter season is not split.If a gauge did not have data from at least 292 days in a year, or 80 percent of the days in a typical year, theresults were ignored.For the purposes of measuring changes over multiple decades, the analysis then focused on the 25 gaugeswith data spanning five decades. The average annual flood-level days were then calculated for two periods:pre-1971 and 2001-present. Gauges had to have at least five years of results in a time period to be included.

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    The methodology was adapted from those used by researchers at NOAA and Old Dominion University inNorfolk, Virginia. Reporters sought their input on how to analyze the data and how to present the findings.

    Since 2001, water has reached flood levels an average of 20 days or more a year in Annapolis, Maryland;Wilmington, North Carolina; Washington, D.C.; Atlantic City, New Jersey; Sandy Hook, New Jersey; andCharleston, South Carolina. Before 1971, none of these locations averaged more than five days a year.

    Annapolis had the highest average number of days a year above flood threshold since 2001, at 34. On theDelmarva Peninsula, the annual average tripled to 18 days at the Lewes, Delaware, tide gauge.The flood threshold does not measure actual flooding. It indicates the level at which the first signs offlooding are likely to appear ponding on pavements and such. The higher the reading, the higher theprobability of closed roads, damaged property and overwhelmed drainage systems. Scientists consider the

    readings to be a reliable indicator of actual flooding.The Reuters analysis shows that the impacts of climate change-related sea level rise are increasingfrequencies of minor coastal flooding, said William Sweet, an oceanographer for NOAA who led a teamof scientists that released similar findings in late July. The NOAA study examined 45 gauges and foundthat flooding is increasing in frequency along much of the U.S. coastline and that the rate of increase is

    accelerating at sites along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.The coastal flooding is often minor. Its cumulative consequences are not. As flooding increases in bothheight and frequency, it exacts a toll in closed businesses, repeated repairs, and investment in protection. Ineffect, higher seas make the same level of storm and even the same high tides more damaging than they

    used to be.In Charleston, a six-lane highway floods when high tides prevent storm water from draining into theAtlantic, making it difficult for half the towns 120,000 residents to get to three hospitals and policeheadquarters. The city has more than $200 million in flood-control projects under way.

    In Annapolis, home to the U.S. Naval Academy, half a foot of water flooded the colonial district, aNational Historic Landmark, at high tide on Chesapeake Bay during rainstorms on April 30, May 1, May16 and Aug. 12. Shopkeepers blocked doorways with wood boards and trash cans; people slipped off shoesto wade to work in bare feet.

    Tropical storm flooding has worsened, too, because the water starts rising from a higher platform, a recentstudy found.When Tropical Storm Nicole struck Maryland in 2010, it was no stronger than storms in 1928 and 1951that were non-events, said the studys author, David Kriebel, a Naval Academy ocean and coastalengineer. Nicole, by contrast, swamped downtown Annapolis and the Naval Academy. Its partly due to

    ground subsidence, Kriebel said. Meanwhile, theres been a worldwide rise in sea level over that period.In tidal Virginia, where the tide gauge with the fastest rate of sea level rise on the Atlantic Coast is located,a heavy rainfall at high tide increasingly floods roads and strands drivers in Norfolk, Portsmouth andVirginia Beach.

    Coastal flooding already has shut down Norfolks $318 million light rail system several times since itopened in 2011. Mayor Paul Fraim said he needs $1 billion for flood gates, higher roads and better drains toprotect the citys heavily developed shoreline.

    LEGACY OF INACTIONThe nations capital isnt immune. The Potomac River turns into a tidal estuary just north of Washington asit flows toward Chesapeake Bay to the south. The average number of days a year above flood threshold hasrisen to 25 since 2001, up from five before 1971.In 2010, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began a $4.1 million project to close gaps in the line of floodprotection for Constitution Avenue and the Federal Triangle area home of the departments of Justice and

    Commerce, the National Archives and the Internal Revenue Service. The corps expects to finish in lateautumn a 380-foot-long, 9-foot-tall barrier across 17th Street near the Washington Monument.

    It still needs to raise by up to 3.5 feet a massive earthen berm built in the 1930s on the north side of theLincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. But Congress high and dry on Capitol Hill hasnt approved the $7.1million needed to finish that and two smaller projects.A Reuters analysis of more than 25 million hourly readings from nearly 70 tide gauges around the UnitedStates shows that at most locations, the mean sea level has risen steadily in recent decades. Flooding hasincreased, too, as measured by the number of days a year that readings exceeded flood thresholds set by theNational Weather Service at the 25 gauges with data spanning five decades or more.

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    AnnapolisMaryland

    Since 1929, the annual mean sea level has changed about: 13.03 inchesSince 1928, the number of flood-level days this gauge has recorded is at least: 926NOAA has calculated that this gauge has a long-term annual rising trend of: 0.14 inches

    ; analysis of flooding days excludes years where data was available for fewer than 292 days.The Army Corps of Engineers, the agency charged with reducing flood and storm damage on the nationscoasts and inland waterways, recommended the project in 1992. Congress authorized it in 1999. Weve

    been waiting for appropriations for a long time, said Jim Ludlam, the corps civil engineer on the NationalMall project.Congress chooses which corps projects to fund on a piecemeal basis. It has $60 billion in approved butunfunded projects gathering dust on its shelves, including 34 authorized by lawmakers this spring. Thesums involved dwarf the $2 billion a year the corps typically receives for construction, aside from disaster

    funding.As a result, we will be constructing water projects to solve past problems for the next 40 years as themoney is slowly made available, said David Conrad, a water resources policy specialist in Washington.The wait list is symptomatic of a larger problem hindering efforts to deal with rising seas: the U.S.governments inability to confront the issue head-on.

    Engineers say there are three possible responses to rising waters: undertake coastal defense projects; adaptwith actions like raising roads and buildings; or abandon land to the sea. Lacking a national strategy, the

    United States applies these measures haphazardly.Sea level rise has become mired in the debate over climate change. And on climate change, the politicallypolarized U.S. Congress cant even agree whether its happening.The stalemate was on display in May, when the administration of President Barack Obama released itsupdated National Climate Assessment. The 841-page report was five years in the making, with input frommore than 300 scientists, engineers, government and industry officials and other experts, a 60-memberadvisory committee and more than a dozen federal departments and agencies. It was among the first majorassessments of climate change to move from predictions of disaster to point out the effects that can alreadybe seen: record-setting heat waves, droughts and torrential rains.At or near the top of the list of the most pressing concerns is the issue of sea level rise along the vastcoastlines of the United States, Jerry Melillo, a scientist at the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods

    Hole, Massachusetts, and chairman of the advisory committee, said at a briefing on the report.

    SURROUNDED: From centuries-old fishing communities on Chesapeake Bay to a NASA space center onthe Atlantic coast, a Virginia county bears the brunt of rising seas. REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueWithin hours of its release, Representative Lamar Smith of Texas, Republican chairman of the Housescience committee, decried the report as nothing more than a political document intended to frightenAmericans into believing that any abnormal weather we experience is the direct result of human [carbondioxide] emissions.

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    Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the Democratic leader, responded: There is no time left to denythe reality of climate change, or to turn a blind eye on the impact it is having on our country.Congress actually recognized global warming way back in 1978 with passage of the National ClimateProgram Act. The law aimed to assist the Nation and the world to understand and respond to natural andman-induced climate processes and their implications.But after three decades and more than $47 billion in direct federal spending on climate change research,

    Congress hasnt passed a major piece of legislation to deal specifically with the effects of rising sea levels.In the U.S., you have best data set on whats happening in the world, and yet its not used in publicpolicy, said Robert Nicholls, professor of coastal engineering at the University of Southampton in Englandand a contributor to the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "You say you dontbelieve in global warming. But sea levels have been rising for 100 years in Baltimore.

    ROCKET SCIENCEThe irony is evident at Wallops Flight Facility.NASA scientist William Krabill and his team have flown research missions from there aboard aircraft withlaser technology to measure changes in the Greenland ice sheet, 1,000 miles long, 400 miles wide and up to2 miles thick. The data they have collected since 1991 has produced evidence that the ice coveringGreenland is melting. Any glacier we have visited in Greenland over the last 25 years is thinning, Krabillsaid. Its thinning faster five years ago than when we visited 25 years ago.

    Wet spotsU.S. tide gauges have recorded at least 12,000 days since Jan. 1, 1920, when water levels reached orexceeded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration flooding thresholds. The interactive graphicbelow shows when and where each of those days occurred.

    3.44floods per stationin 1961.1920201305001000 floodsgauges

    1961JuneSource: Reuters analysis of NOAA tide gauge data.

    Theyve found the same thing is happening to Antarcticas ice sheet seven times larger than Greenlands.Their discoveries underpin predictions of rising seas for decades to come.The scientists dont have to look far to see the consequences of rising seas. Wallops Island is graduallybeing inundated. Yet this bastion of climate research has been slow to apply the science of sea level rise to

    its own operations. Officials here are embarking on expansion in the face of increasing assaults from thesea.The Arctic research programs aircraft is safely ensconced in a hangar on the mainland. But a billion

    dollars in assets 50 NASA structures including three sub-orbital spacecraft launchers, as well as acommercial spaceport and a Navy surface combat training center cluster on Wallops Island.The launch pads sit at the south end of the island, the most vulnerable part, said Caroline Massey,assistant director of management operations at Wallops. Moving them farther north would put them toodangerously close to the people of Chincoteague, she said.

    But Wallops Island has been losing an average of 12 feet of shoreline a year. A seawall three miles longand 14 feet high intended to protect the launch structures hasnt stopped the flooding. Rather, it has allowedwave action to consume the natural beach that once served as a shoreline buffer.CLOSE TO HOME: NASA scientist William Krabill has used Wallops Flight Facility to conduct researchon the climate phenomena that are contributing to the inundation of nearby Wallops Island.

    REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueIn January 2009, a federal interagency assessment of the mid-Atlantic coast said that both Wallops and

    nearby Assateague islands may have crossed a geomorphic threshold from a relatively stable state into ahighly unstable condition one in which rising seas could trigger significant and irreversible changes.The islands could shrink, move or break apart.Ten months later, construction started on a $15.5 million rocket assembly building and a $100 million

    launch pad 250 feet from the pounding surf on the south end of the island.In early 2010, Wallops officials proposed a $43 million project to extend the sea wall by about 1,400 feetand build a new, 4-mile-long beach to better protect their growing assets on the island. As required by law,they released a draft environmental impact statement on the plan.

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    Reviewers from state and federal agencies criticized the 348-page document for failing to adequately takerising sea levels into account in the project design and impact, or to temper future plans for expansion.Even NASAs own technical review team noted the short shrift given to the problem.

    Wallops officials responded by nearly doubling references to the effects of sea level rise in the impactstatement. But in the official record of the decision, which announced Wallops would proceed with theproject, sea level rise isnt mentioned anywhere. Joshua Bundick, Wallopss environmental planningmanager, explained that he distilled the issues down to only the highest points, and sea level rise wasntamong them.Before work began, Hurricane Irene hit in August 2011. The storm surge did $3.8 million in damage toWallops and closed it for weeks, Massey said. Work was finally finished in August 2012. Two monthslater, Sandy ripped out large hunks of the wall, sparing the buildings but washing away a quarter of the 3.2million cubic yards of new beach sand. An additional 10 percent has eroded away since then, Massey said.An $11 million redo, paid out of the Sandy relief fund, began in July, and Wallops officials are consideringadding another launch pad, she said.In the U.S., you have best data set on whats happening in the world, and yet its not used in publicpolicy.

    Robert Nicholls, professor of coastal engineering, University of Southampton, EnglandAs NASA stays the course at Wallops, the federal Fish and Wildlife Service is sending a different messageto the town of Chincoteague next door.The island community of 3,000 attracts more than a million tourists a year.The big draw is Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge on Assateague Island, just east of Chincoteague.Its 14,000 acres of wild beach, wetlands and loblolly pine forest provide habitats for the endangeredDelmarva fox squirrel; the piping plover, a threatened beach-nesting bird; and up to 150 Chincoteague

    ponies, feral animals descended from a herd brought to the island in colonial times.Most visitors come for the mile of ocean-facing public recreational beach, according to the U.S. Fish andWildlife Service, which manages the refuge. Visitors can drive with all of their gear right up to the edge ofthe beach to park in a 1,000-space crushed-shell lot.

    The only way to get to the beach is to drive through town, and many visitors eat, shop and sleep there.Tourism accounts for about two-thirds of the jobs in town, state and federal records show.

    The problem is that the beach has been retreating at an average rate of 10 to 22 feet a year amid bigger andmore frequent storms. The cost to American taxpayers of repeated destruction of the parking lot andcauseway from rising sea levels would only increase, Fish and Wildlife officials said.In 2010, the agency came up with a proposal: close the existing recreational beach and relocate it a mile

    and a half north, where the shoreline was retreating at a third of the pace. The new site would have asmaller parking lot to limit disturbance to wildlife, and visitors would be shuttled from a satellite lot intown.

    1.2.

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    WET SEASON: Annapolis officials say street flooding at high tide or during rainstorms has become morecommon in recent years - an observation backed by Reuters tide-gauge analsysis. REUTERS/Mary F.

    Calvert

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    ,(/+/+5-75(/+/025+)354)1)4+% 5 +4/6)+!-&5+4/6)+!-&5+)34)1)4Its incumbent on us to look further down the road, said Hinds, the refuge manager at the time.

    Chincoteague was incensed. Town leaders pointed to a survey in which 80 percent of visitors said theywould not continue coming to the beach if they had to park in town and take a shuttle.Residents also feared that Fish and Wildlife would let the southern end of Assateague Island erode away ifthe beach were moved. The southern tip of the island shelters a nascent shellfish aquaculture industry andbuffers Chincoteague from storm surges.

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    A series of angry meetings with local Fish and Wildlife officials resolved nothing.In 2012, Chincoteague got a hearing on the proposal at the U.S. Capitol. Thornton, the county supervisor,testified that local residents feared for their jobs. In a recent interview, Thornton, who owns a campgroundin Chincoteague, said she thinks the federal government is using climate change as a ploy in a long-termplan to get everyone away from the coastline.She blames the government, not rising sea levels, for the beachs flooding problems. The refuge hasnt

    taken steps to protect the shoreline, such as replenishing the beach with sand, she said. Theres going to benothing left to protect us, she said.The agency compromised somewhat, releasing an official draft plan in May that would relocate the beachto the less unstable site, but keep the parking area at its current size, as long as theres enough land to do so.Building a new parking lot, access road and visitor station would cost $12 million to $14 million. As many

    residents feared, this plan would not replenish the sand at the southern end of Assateague or at the new siteas they erode.A public hearing in Chincoteague on June 26 failed to settle the matter. Thornton is calling for more studybefore officials at Fish and Wildlife make a decision. Once a decision is made, Fish and Wildlife willprobably have to seek federal funding from Congress to proceed with relocation.

    Hinds, the refuge manager who shepherded the original proposal, retired last year. The stalemate over howto cope with the rising tide in this tiny town, he says, doesnt bode well for the rest of America. What doyou do then, he said, when you start talking about New York City?

    Where retreating now or later is the only optionByDeborah J. NelsonandDuff WilsonC

    EDING TO THE SEA: Tiny Saxis, Virginia, population 240, was unable to cover its share of the cost ofbreakwaters that would have slowed the seas inundation of the town. REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueSAXIS, Virginia This town on Chesapeake Bay is losing three to five feet (1 to 1.5 meters) of shoreline ayear and suffered damage during hurricane Sandy. But like hundreds of rural communities along the coast,it is competing with much larger, more powerful neighbors for public funds to bankroll a response to risingseas.

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    Coastal engineers say communities have three options for dealing with rising water levels and increasedflooding: defend the shoreline with natural or man-made barriers; adapt, such as by raising roads andbuildings; or retreat.

    New York City is planning a $20 billion mix of defense and adaptation measures most notably,construction of The Big U, a 10-mile (16-km) fortress of berms and movable walls around lowerManhattan. Mayor Bill de Blasios office says three-quarters of the money needed over the next decade isalready in hand from federal, state and local sources.For places like Saxis, population 240, the options are more stark: retreat now or retreat later.Many Saxis residents watermen who harvest oysters, crabs and fish, and seafood industry workers tracetheir ancestry to settlers in the 1600s and speak a language peppered with Elizabethan inflections. Somedont hold out much hope for the future.

    Little places like us, theres not going to be any help for us because whatever resources are available willbe sucked up by the big cities to try to defend them, said Grayson Chesser, a decoy carver, hunting guideand Accomack County supervisor.Its becoming more and more competitive for federal funds in terms of protecting communities.Curtis Smith, Accomack-Northampton Planning DistrictBelinda, a nearby village where his grandfather was born, is one of several he cites that no longer exist,

    abandoned when frequent flooding made them uninhabitable. Families relocated to higher ground, wherehe resides today, but now its flooding, too.A decade ago, Saxis managed to get federal approval for a $3.2 million U.S. Army Corps of Engineersproject to build eight breakwaters that would slow the seas advance. But the town couldnt scrape togetherits required contribution of nearly $1 million, so the plan was killed.The 700 residents of Tangier Island, a better-known historic Chesapeake enclave, waited nearly twodecades for $4.2 million in state and federal money to build a 430-foot-long seawall, jetty and stonerevetment. The project is scheduled to be finished by 2017.Its becoming more and more competitive for federal funds in terms of protecting communities, saidCurtis Smith, a planner with the Accomack-Northampton Planning District. So Saxis is competing withMiami and New York and Virginia Beach.

    Virginia Beach, with a population of 438,000, has been the recipient of a federally funded seawall and twomajor sand projects totaling more than $150 million since 1996.Some Saxis residents have raised their houses to reduce the risk of flood damage. But thats only a partialsolution if the roads that connect them to grocery stores, hospitals and schools become impassable, Smithsaid.

    There, too, rural areas compete for funding with more heavily trafficked urban areas.Accomack County has more miles of road in jeopardy from rising sea levels than anywhere else inVirginia, a state study found. On the harder hit Chesapeake Bay side, some spots now flood nearly everyfull moon.

    The Virginia Department of Transportation is struggling with the question of how to combat increasedflooding in low-volume, low-population areas, said Chris Isdell, the departments representative inAccomack County. Youre trying to fight back Mother Nature. ... How do you do that in a roadway thatsits at sea level?Saxis residents may eventually have to face up to the same hard fate Chessers grandfathers communitydid and abandon their homes.I wish I could say I thought Saxis would be saved, but theres no way. It costs so much money, Chessersaid. And even if you spend the money, I dont think you can do it. I mean you just cant beat the ocean.Youre going to lose every time.

    Coming next: How U.S. policy promotes development along endangered shores.