revenue & business activity q1 2014 - … · t1 q4 q2 residential 2,145 4,440 2,436 3,542 ......
TRANSCRIPT
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DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this document has not been independently verified. No representation, warranty orundertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy,completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of the Company, itsshareholders, its advisors or representatives nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any lossarising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document.
This document does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation or solicitation of an offer to subscribe for orpurchase any securities, and this shall not form the basis for or be used for any such offer or invitation or othercontract or engagement in any jurisdiction.
The information, assumptions and estimates that were used to determine these objectives are subject tomodification due to economic, financial and competitive uncertainties. Furthermore, it is possible that some of therisks described in chapter 4 in the Document de Référence, filed with the AMF under number D.14-0304 on 8 April2014, could have an impact on the company’s ability to achieve these objectives. Accordingly, the Company cannotgive any assurance as to whether it will achieve the objectives described, and makes no commitment or undertakingto update or otherwise revise this information.
No assurance is given as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinionscontained in this document.
KEY MESSAGES Q1 2014
� Q1 2014 Business activity:
�New home reservations in France up 5% in volume, +8% yoy in value
�Commercial order intake not significant over Q1, annual €100 million target confirmed
�Group backlog at the end of March over €3.3 billion equal to backlog at year-end 2013 (18 months’revenue from development activities)
� Q1 2014 consolidated revenue in line with Group expectations at €505 million
� Full-year 2014 Outlook and Guidance confirmed
� External growth: Oralia acquisition announced in December 2013 and finalised on 1 April 2014; PERL acquisition announced on 17 March, expected to finalise by the end of 1st half 2014 if approved by French Competition Authority
� Private placement of a €171million bond issue in two tranches of 6 and 7 years, at fixed coupons of 3.25% and 3.52% respectively, announced in a separate release today*
PAGE 4*Not for publication, distribution or release, directly or indirectly, in or into the USA, Australia, Canada or Japan
HOUSING SECTOR IN FRANCE: REGULATORY UPDATE
PAGE 6
MARKET SEGMENT
MAIN MEASURES
Landlords and investors
Caps on rents in areas with limited supply (28 metropolitan areas); maximum equal to the median reference rent for the home (by category and district), set by prefectural order (on the basis of data provided by a market monitoring centre) +20% at most for each new rental or new tenant
Gradual implementation of an optional Universal Rent Guarantee (financed by the public authorities)
Regulation of relations between landlords and tenants (limitation on required supporting documents, reduction of tenant’s notice to one month in areas characterised by limited supply, standard forms for leases and schedules of condition, etc.)
ALUR Act voted February 2014
Validated by the Constitutional Council, 20 March 2014
200 decrees pending
Real estate services to individuals
Limitation of letting expenses payable by the tenant (50% maximum, limits per sq.m)
Regulation of managing agents’ fees (limitation by decree of special expenses, all other services deemed as relating to day-to-day administration and included in the annual fee package), obligation to open a separate bank account for each condominium property with more than 15 units
All segments
Modernisation of urban development law: more systematic coordination of local urban planning schemes between municipalities (with 25% veto right granted to municipalities representing at least 20% of the affected population), clarification of the hierarchy of standards in urban planning documents, greater control of urban planning for commercial uses, local and regional ecological transitions, etc.
Intermediate housingOfficial status for intermediate housing. Potential extension to home-ownership. Creation of a new long-term leasehold, the “BRILO”
20/02/2014Ordinance
All segments“Objectif 500.000” strategic working group and the “choc de simplification” (streamlining of bureaucratic procedures) promised by François Hollande, with the official aim of lowering the cost of new collective housing construction by 10%
Ongoing
RESIDENTIAL
PAGE 7
BUILDING PERMITS
Source : Commissariat Général au Développement Durable- N° 513 April 2014
NUMBER OF NEW HOME BUILDING PERMITS GRANTED IN FRAN CE(in thousand units, 12 months rolling)
RESIDENTIAL
2013 2014
400408420433
502496495535
March
-20%
FevJanDecDec 2012
Dec 2011
March
PAGE 8
NEW HOME RESERVATION MARKET (DEVELOPERS)
DEVELOPERS’ NEW HOME RESERVATIONS IN FRANCE(in units)
20,000
40,000
80,000
100,000
60,000
120,000
0
2012
89,000
2011
105,000
2010
115,000
200520042003 2006
127,000
2007
79,000
2008
106,000
2009
~-1%
20142013
88,000
Average 2003/2013: 107,000
Source: Commissariat Général au Développement Durable, chiffres & statistiques n°496 for 2013
Number of reservations
RESIDENTIAL
PAGE 9
MORTGAGE RATES
MORTGAGE RATES (all markets, excl. insurance, last month of the quarter, average)
2,98%
Q1 14
3,00%
2,08%
2,56%
Q4 13Q3 13
3,08%2,89%
Q2 13Q1 13
3,07%
Q4 12
2,00%
Q3 12Q2 12Q1 12Q4 11
3,93%
Q4 10
3,27%
Q4 09Q4 08
5,07%
Q4 07
4,42%
Q4 06
3,88%
Q4 05
3,36%
Q4 04Q4 03
4,30%
4,08%
* Observatoire Crédit Logement **French OAT 10-year rate reported by Bloomberg; the last quotation date of the quarter
mortgage rates*
French government 10 year bond (OAT**)
RESIDENTIAL
NEXITY RESIDENTIAL IN FRANCE*:Q1 2014 RESERVATIONS
VOLUME(in units)
VALUE(in €m, incl.VAT)
491
370326
+5%
Q1 2014
2,141
1,815
Q1 2013
2,030
1,660
Q1 2012
2,348
1,857
Subdivisions
New homes318
353
37 2829
Q1 2014
+8%
382
Q1 2013
355
327
Q1 2012
355
PAGE 10
+8%+9%
RESIDENTIAL
*Excluding International business.(Including International business, new homes reserva tions +5% in volume, +6% in value)
3,581
Q4Q3
2,099
Q2
2,781
Q1
1,660
Q4
3,052
Q3
2,506
Q2
2,776
Q1
1,857
Q4
3,414
Q3
2,685
Q2
2,992
Q1
2,333
Q4
4,042
Q3
2,542
Q2
3,069
Q1
2,201
Q4
2,998
Q3
2,016
Q2
3,225
Q1
2,569
Q1
1,815
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PAGE 11
RESIDENTIAL
2014
NEW HOME RESERVATIONS BY QUARTER
NUMBER OF NEW HOME RESERVATIONS(France, in units)
PAGE 12
571
10,989
2014
1,154
2013
11,734
3,044
4,440
2,436
4,566
3,542
4,393
2012
2,422
1,894
2011
1,427
11,182
2,1453,025
NEXITY RESIDENTIAL: NEW HOME COMMERCIAL LAUNCHES(France, excluding Iselection, in units)
Q3
T1
Q4
Q2
RESIDENTIAL
2,145
4,440
2,436
3,542
1,894
4,5664,393
2,422 3,044
1,427
3,025
Q1X2
PAGE 13
Q1 13
1,660
48129%
1046%
51831%
55734%
Q1 12
1,857
31117%
925%
1,01054%
1,815
Q1 14
49827%
1448%
62735%
54630%
44424%
-2%
+21%
+38%
+4%
NEXITY RESIDENTIAL: KEY CLIENT SEGMENTS PERFORMANCENEW HOME RESERVATIONS BREAKDOWN BY CUSTOMER TYPE(excl. International, in units)
First-time buyers
Individual investors
Other home buyers
Professional landlords
RESIDENTIAL
Total individuals net reservations: +15% (Q1 14 / Q1 13)
+15%
PAGE 14
50
66
5559
103236
85
Q1 14
+20%
4,802
3,13065%
1,58733%
Q1 13
3,992
2,63066%
1,31233%
2013
5,058
3,59271%
1,40028%
2012
4,293
2,99870%
1,24029%
2011
4,202
3,009
1,134
2010
3,542
2,252
1,187
2009
3,663
2,092
1,335
2008
6,988
3,195
3,620
173
NEXITY RESIDENTIAL: COMMERCIAL OFFERNEW HOME COMMERCIAL OFFER STRUCTURE (Commercialised operations, in units, excl. Iselection and International)
New homesunder construction
Completed new homes
New homes in project phase
RESIDENTIAL
PAGE 15Source: CBRE, Investissement France, Q1 2014
COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT MARKET
COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT MARKET IN FRANCE(in €bn)
-4%
2014e
Q1
Q2
2013
15.5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
16.1
201120102009
7.6
20082007
27.0
200620052004
COMMERCIAL
~16-17
PAGE 16Source: CBRE, Bureaux Île-de-France Q1 2014
+16%
2.0
-25%
2014e
2.0
Q1 2014
0.5
2013
1.8
0.4
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
2.4
1.9
2008
2.4
2007
2.7
2011
2.4
2010
2.1
2009
0.5
COMMERCIAL RENTAL MARKET
COMMERCIAL
TAKE-UP IN PARIS REGION (in millions of sq.m)
NEXITY COMMERCIAL: NEW ORDER INTAKE AND BACKLOG
PAGE 17
(in €m)
457486
31 March 14Additional works & other
adjustments
+24
2014 order intake
+2
Q1 2014 revenue
-55
31 Dec 13
-6%
COMMERCIAL
� Order intake in Q1 2014 not significant
� Confirmation of the 2014 objective: Order intake to r each €100m
31 Dec 13 31 March 14 1 April 14
PAGE 18
792
64481%
-1.7%
14919%
804
14819%
65581%
11.312.0
31 March 1431 Dec 13
NEXITY SERVICES: BUSINESS ACTIVITY - Q1 2014
REAL ESTATE SERVICES TO INDIVIDUALS(in thousands of units)
Rentalmanagement
Condominiummanagement
REAL ESTATE SERVICES TO COMPANIES(in millions of sq.m)
SERVICES AND DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
*Oralia acquisition completed on 1 April 2014
79231
134 Oralia*
957
PAGE 19
Asnières120,000 sq.m
St-Priest146,800 sq.m
Marseille Docks Libres30,000 sq.m
Ermont Eaubonne21,400 sq.m
St-Ouen187,300 sq.m
Île-de-France
Lyon
Marseille
� ~615,100 sq.m in portfolio at the end of March 2014� Acquisition of a first plot of land in Montreuil, p art of a large scale development
programme (Acacias)
Montreuil
63,350 sq.m
URBAN REGENERATION: VILLES & PROJETS
URBAN REGENERATION
• Acquisition of a first plot of 14,000 sq.m for a large-scale mixed development project on the immediate outskirts of Paris
• Creation of a new city neighbourhood offering substantial social and functional diversity
• High environmental quality: passive buildings, optimised rainwater management
• Eventually a total floor space of: 104,500* sq.m including 81,200 sq.m of housing:
• 1,200 residential units;
• 13,000 sq.m of business and retail premises;• Public facilities: 1 school, 1 stadium, shared car parks
• Initial delivery date: end of 2017
Acacias, Montreuil (Seine-Saint-Denis, Paris Region)
PAGE 20
URBAN REGENERATION
URBAN REGENERATION: VILLES & PROJETS
* Including the 63,350 sq.m booked in the Nexity portfolio
Q1 2014 REVENUE
PAGE 22
341364
55114
107
1072
1
Other activities
+1
Q1 2013
-23
Services & Distribution Networks
-1
Commercial
-59
Residential
505
Q1 2014
587
-14.0 % *
Residential
Commercial
Services & Distribution Networks
(in €m)
* If co-development activities were not proportionately consolidated, the Group’s first quarter 2014 revenue would decrease by 15% vs Q1 2013. Please refer to page 4 of the English version of the press release.
-14.0%
BACKLOG
PAGE 23
556390
709 383457486
3,340
March 14
2,8832,869
3,355
Dec 13Dec 12
3,098
2,715
Dec 11
3,324
2,615
Dec 10
2,751
2,361
Dec 09
2,633
2,077
Commercial
Residential
(in €m, excl. VAT and incl. Iselection and International) 18 MONTHS’ DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
As a reminder, the Group’s backlog at the end of Marc h 2013 was €2.995 billion, the equivalent of 15 months of Nexity’s development act ivity
DIVIDEND
PAGE 24
2013 2014*
2.02.0
2012
2.0
2011 (Sept)
4.0
2011(May)
2.0
2010
1.6
2009
1.5
2008
2.0
2007
1.9
2006
1.6
2005
1.0
Exceptional
Paid:
Dividend of €2 per share to be proposed to the Shar eholders’ Meetingto be held on 20 May 2014
* Subject to the approval of the Shareholders’ Meeting
DIVIDEND PER SHARE(in € per share)
2014 OUTLOOK*
� Residential: level of activity at approximately 10,000 reservations, in line with 2013 in a new home market expected to remain stable in 2014, not to pick up before 2015
� Commercial: order intake to reach a low of around €100 million
� Consolidated revenue for 2014 expected to exceed €2.5 billion**
� Current operating profit target for 2014 of at least €170 million
� Confirmed proposal to distribute a dividend of €2 per share in respect of 2013. The Company is considering proposing to shareholders next year to renew the same dividend
PAGE 25
* Indicators measured using accounting methods comparable with 2013, without neutralising the share of revenue or profit earned by the Group in co-development activities. These targets take into account the consolidation of Oralia as of 1 April 2014, but do not include the impact of the potential acquisition of PERL, which remains subject to consent from the French CompetitionAuthority
** Reminder: 2013 consolidated revenue = €2.737 billion