revisiting security and energy geopolitics of south caucasus: a turkish perspective
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Revisiting Security and Energy Geopolitics of South Caucasus: A Turkish Perspective. Assoc. Prof. Atilla Sandıklı, President of BILGESAM Erdem Kaya, Research Fellow at BILGESAM. The location of the caucasus. The south caucasus at regional and global stage. US and EU - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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REVISITING SECURITY AND ENERGY GEOPOLITICS OF SOUTH CAUCASUS: A TURKISH PERSPECTIVEAssoc. Prof. Atilla Sandıklı, President of BILGESAMErdem Kaya, Research Fellow at BILGESAM
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THE LOCATION OF THE CAUCASUS
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THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AT REGIONAL AND GLOBAL STAGE
• US and EU • Euro-Atlantic security
system• NATO’s eastward
enlargement• Russia’s return • The Eurasian Union &
Customs Union• Turkey-Iran rivalry• Iran-Israel rivalry
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REASONS THAT MAKE THE REGION IMPORTANT FOR TURKEY
•Security risks emanating from the unsettled disputes
•Rivalry on energy resources and routes
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SECURİTY RISKS
• The Armenian invasion of Azerbaijani territories
• Armenia has no future plan to withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions
• Security Council resolutions do not work
• Minsk Group is not effective• International community has
no pressure on Armenia• Russian mediation helps the
Armenian side
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SECURİTY RISKS
• Separatist regions in Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia
• The new status quo in the aftermath of the August War of 2008
• The entities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia survive under Russian protection
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RİVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES
• Competition over the operation and delivery routes of Caspian oil and gas resources• Russia’s efforts to stay monopoly and resurgence
to control the routes • Azeri oil and gas, Kazakh oil, Turkmen gas • Europe’s search for different suppliers • Western companies’ involvement
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RİVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES
• Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline
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RİVALRY ON ENERGY RESOURCES AND ROUTES
• Russia’s policy of disuniting Europe, Nord Stream, South Stream pipeline projects• Nabucco project
turned out to be impossible• TANAP project
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TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
• Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia relations improved• Energy links increased• Cooperation in
defense industry is developing• A trilateral group is
emerging
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TURKEY AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
• Reconciliation attempt in 2009 between Turkey and Armenia• Temporary chill
between Turkey and Azerbaijan• Protocols could not
produce results
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ARMENİA’S GOALS FOR 2015
• Armenia’s claims regarding the 1915 evens• Diaspora’s activities• Preparations for the 2015, the first anniversary of
the 1915 events• Attitude of US Congress• Armenia will try to secure Vatican’s and pro-Israeli
lobbies for the 2015 goals
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ARMENİA’S BUDDİNG TALYSH POLİCY
• Armenia’s Talysh policy against Azerbaijan
• Pro-Talysh propaganda
• Iran’s support
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PKK/KCK IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
• PKK/KCK’s activities in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh• Fund-raising activities • PKK/KCK operates in South Caucasus under the
guise of seemingly civilian institutions, associations and foundations.• Attempt to recruit Yezidis in Armenia• Certain Armenian political parties are known to
have links with the terrorist PKK/KCK
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END OF THE PRESENTATION