Questionnaire Design for Linked Surveys of Questionnaire Design for Linked Surveys of International Migration in the CIS Countries:International Migration in the CIS Countries:

Issues and Proposed ApproachIssues and Proposed Approach

Richard E. BilsborrowRichard E. Bilsborrow

For the World BankFor the World Bank

Presented at ECE Workshop on Using Presented at ECE Workshop on Using Household Surveys to Improve Household Surveys to Improve

International Migration Statistics, International Migration Statistics, Geneva, October 16, 2012Geneva, October 16, 2012

Why use surveys?Why use surveys? Detailed information is needed on migrants to study Detailed information is needed on migrants to study

determinants or consequences of international determinants or consequences of international migrationmigration

It is impractical to obtain detailed data from existing It is impractical to obtain detailed data from existing sources of data, such as a census, or a household sources of data, such as a census, or a household survey with another main purpose and samples too survey with another main purpose and samples too small or randomly selectedsmall or randomly selected

Good questionnaires and interviewers are necessary to Good questionnaires and interviewers are necessary to ensure data collected are of high quality, including on ensure data collected are of high quality, including on sensitive topics, such as income and undocumented sensitive topics, such as income and undocumented migrants migrants

Migration is a social experimentMigration is a social experiment

Migrants, by moving, are subject to a Migrants, by moving, are subject to a “treatment”“treatment”

To assess the effects of the “treatment”, To assess the effects of the “treatment”, one needs to compare migrants with an one needs to compare migrants with an appropriate group of “not treated persons”appropriate group of “not treated persons”

Which is the correct comparison Which is the correct comparison group?group?

ORIGINORIGIN EmigrantsEmigrants Non-migrantsNon-migrants

DESTINATIONDESTINATION ImmigrantsImmigrants Non-migrantsNon-migrants

The challenge of studying the The challenge of studying the determinantsdeterminants of migration of migration

Get comparable data on emigrants at Get comparable data on emigrants at destination and on non-migrants at origin: destination and on non-migrants at origin: ideally, simultaneous surveys are thus ideally, simultaneous surveys are thus needed at both origin and destinationneeded at both origin and destination

Second best alternative: a survey at origin Second best alternative: a survey at origin asking “proxy respondents” about asking “proxy respondents” about emigrants from household, plus emigrants from household, plus interviewing non-migrants interviewing non-migrants

Thus the desirability of linked origin-Thus the desirability of linked origin-destination country surveysdestination country surveys

Best example is NIDI surveys of 5 countries Best example is NIDI surveys of 5 countries of origin in Middle East and Africa and two of origin in Middle East and Africa and two of destination in Europe, though full of destination in Europe, though full analysis potential not realized in the endanalysis potential not realized in the end

But there are others, such as MAFE, on But there are others, such as MAFE, on migration from Africa to Europe; and the migration from Africa to Europe; and the Latin America Migration project of Massey Latin America Migration project of Massey and others at Princeton University on and others at Princeton University on migrants to the USmigrants to the US

NIDI-Eurostat Survey Project, 1997-1998NIDI-Eurostat Survey Project, 1997-1998

Common methodology is needed not only in defining Common methodology is needed not only in defining migrants but in design of samples and questionnairesmigrants but in design of samples and questionnaires

Special sampling methods needed, appropriate for “rare Special sampling methods needed, appropriate for “rare elements”elements”

NIDI used both appropriate comparison groups in its NIDI used both appropriate comparison groups in its survey design—almost! survey design—almost!

These provide useful experience for designing origin-These provide useful experience for designing origin-destination surveys in the CIS region, which constitute destination surveys in the CIS region, which constitute an almost ideal form of “migration system” for study an almost ideal form of “migration system” for study

Survey design in countries of Survey design in countries of emigration in the CIS regionemigration in the CIS region

Need to collect data on both households with Need to collect data on both households with emigrants and those without, as well as on return emigrants and those without, as well as on return migrants migrants

Then 3 populations to be surveyed: households Then 3 populations to be surveyed: households with no migrants, with emigrants (hereafter with no migrants, with emigrants (hereafter referred to as out-migrants), and with return referred to as out-migrants), and with return migrants, oversampling latter twomigrants, oversampling latter two

Suppose we seek 3,000 hhs with an emigrant & Suppose we seek 3,000 hhs with an emigrant & 3,000 with a return migrant. In all of these, we 3,000 with a return migrant. In all of these, we will also interview a non-migrant. Therefore may will also interview a non-migrant. Therefore may not need so many non-migrant householdsnot need so many non-migrant households

Studying the determinants of migrationStudying the determinants of migration Requires collecting data about the situation of the Requires collecting data about the situation of the

migrant and his/her household around the migrant and his/her household around the time of time of migrationmigration, since that is what affected the , since that is what affected the migration decision, not current data at interviewmigration decision, not current data at interview

To study the determinants of migration, migrants To study the determinants of migration, migrants and non-migrants are pooled, and a migration and non-migrants are pooled, and a migration model is estimated in which the dependent model is estimated in which the dependent variable is whether the person migrated or notvariable is whether the person migrated or not

Therefore, data are needed on the situation of the Therefore, data are needed on the situation of the non-migrantnon-migrant also at the time migrants moved also at the time migrants moved rather than at the time of interview. rather than at the time of interview.

This has not been done before, but can be doneThis has not been done before, but can be done

Collecting data on non-migrantsCollecting data on non-migrants

For how many years back (reference time) should For how many years back (reference time) should data be collected on non-migrants?data be collected on non-migrants?This depends on 3 things: 1) the definition of This depends on 3 things: 1) the definition of migrants of interest; 2) the time when migrants migrants of interest; 2) the time when migrants moved within that reference period; and 3) what is moved within that reference period; and 3) what is feasible and practical to ask about (memory recall)feasible and practical to ask about (memory recall)If we use (1) a 10 year cut-off in the definition of If we use (1) a 10 year cut-off in the definition of migration, (2) the mean time of migration is likely to migration, (2) the mean time of migration is likely to be 4-5 years ago, so the goal is to ask non-migrants be 4-5 years ago, so the goal is to ask non-migrants about their situation around that time.about their situation around that time.

Structure of draft questionnairesStructure of draft questionnaires

Household questionnaire--contains Household questionnaire--contains sections on household roster, housing sections on household roster, housing quality and finance, assets and quality and finance, assets and expenditures, health and income, and expenditures, health and income, and identification of out-migrants.identification of out-migrants.

Individual questionnaires--exist for non-Individual questionnaires--exist for non-migrants, out-migrants, return migrants migrants, out-migrants, return migrants (and immigrants when of interest)(and immigrants when of interest)

Household questionnaire: household Household questionnaire: household roster, sections 1 & 2roster, sections 1 & 2

Based on currently resident hh members (head Based on currently resident hh members (head may be out of country); affects listing and may be out of country); affects listing and relationship to head responserelationship to head response

Questions on p. 1 obtain country of birth, current Questions on p. 1 obtain country of birth, current age, and whether ever lived outside country and age, and whether ever lived outside country and last time: this identifies immigrants and return last time: this identifies immigrants and return migrantsmigrants

Includes questions on ethnicity, current education Includes questions on ethnicity, current education and marital status, current work status.and marital status, current work status.

Section 2 has easy questions on housing quality Section 2 has easy questions on housing quality plus several on use of banks, internet and plus several on use of banks, internet and computerscomputers

Section 3. Household assets and Section 3. Household assets and expendituresexpenditures

Household assets list provides easy (if lengthy) Household assets list provides easy (if lengthy) indicator of wealth; should have diverse items, indicator of wealth; should have diverse items, some of which most will have and some fewsome of which most will have and some few

Household expenditures is often considered a Household expenditures is often considered a more reliable indicator of the current economic more reliable indicator of the current economic status of a household from a surveystatus of a household from a survey

Proposed chart is intended to collect most Proposed chart is intended to collect most expenditures in the least time, but it still requires expenditures in the least time, but it still requires considerable time; different reference periods for considerable time; different reference periods for different types of items—e.g., food vs. appliancesdifferent types of items—e.g., food vs. appliances

Section 4. Household health and Section 4. Household health and incomeincome

Small table proposed for recording basic data, on Small table proposed for recording basic data, on illnesses in household in past 3 months, whether illnesses in household in past 3 months, whether affected normal activities, whether received care, affected normal activities, whether received care, cost, etc.; could instead add to household rostercost, etc.; could instead add to household roster

Dilemma exists with respect to the collection of Dilemma exists with respect to the collection of data on household income; questions proposed data on household income; questions proposed are an attempt to collect reasonable data without are an attempt to collect reasonable data without many questionsmany questions

This is especially the case with respect to income This is especially the case with respect to income from business, own-account activities, farmingfrom business, own-account activities, farming

Alternative approach is use of simple set of Alternative approach is use of simple set of probing questions to create income categories probing questions to create income categories

Section 6. Identification of out-Section 6. Identification of out-migrantsmigrants

Short section, could be moved to end of Short section, could be moved to end of section 1 or before section on non-section 1 or before section on non-migrants (currently section 5).migrants (currently section 5).

Asks about absent “household members”, Asks about absent “household members”, those who left the household to live those who left the household to live abroad and continue to live abroadabroad and continue to live abroad

Need to identify their current age and Need to identify their current age and when (last) left household when (last) left household

From this determine eligibility for out-From this determine eligibility for out-migrant questionnaire migrant questionnaire

Section 7. Out-migrant questionnaireSection 7. Out-migrant questionnaire

Seeks Seeks minimumminimum data on situation when first left data on situation when first left the country if more than 10 years agothe country if more than 10 years ago

Apply abbreviated international migration history, Apply abbreviated international migration history, including episodes of return migrationincluding episodes of return migration

Obtains more detailed data on the situation of the Obtains more detailed data on the situation of the migrant and his/her household in country of origin migrant and his/her household in country of origin on first move at 15+ on first move at 15+ in past 10 yearsin past 10 years; this ; this includes education, marital status, employment/ includes education, marital status, employment/ income of migrant plus household size and income of migrant plus household size and composition, relatives abroad and networks, composition, relatives abroad and networks, sources of information, financing of move, etc. sources of information, financing of move, etc.

Section 7, continuedSection 7, continued

Data are also collected on settling in process in Data are also collected on settling in process in country of arrival—sources of assistance, time to country of arrival—sources of assistance, time to get first work or set up business/farmget first work or set up business/farm

Then further data is collected on work/income in Then further data is collected on work/income in first job abroad, business or farm, changes in first job abroad, business or farm, changes in education, marital status and fertility, etc.education, marital status and fertility, etc.

If this first country since 10 years ago is not If this first country since 10 years ago is not currentcurrent country, then process above is repeated country, then process above is repeated for for lastlast move abroad move abroad

The most detailed data, however, is collected on The most detailed data, however, is collected on current situation of out-migrant, to measure current situation of out-migrant, to measure consequencesconsequences of migration for migrant of migration for migrant

Section 7, concludedSection 7, concluded Further data are obtained on the out-migrant Further data are obtained on the out-migrant

situation to understand current situation and situation to understand current situation and factors that may influence migration intentions-- factors that may influence migration intentions-- whether to remain or returnwhether to remain or return

This includes dwelling and family situation there: This includes dwelling and family situation there: marital status/fertility and changes; whether has marital status/fertility and changes; whether has close relatives living there, back in origin, or close relatives living there, back in origin, or elsewhere; language ability, citizenship; whether elsewhere; language ability, citizenship; whether gained more education abroad, etc.gained more education abroad, etc.

Finally, questions are asked about migration Finally, questions are asked about migration intentions & possible sources of funding for intentions & possible sources of funding for moving moving

Section 8. Remittances from out-Section 8. Remittances from out-migrantmigrant

This short module is to be implemented for each This short module is to be implemented for each recent out-migrant from the household, together recent out-migrant from the household, together with section 7with section 7

First asks about help household gave migrant First asks about help household gave migrant when he/she first leftwhen he/she first left

Then asks when migrant first sent money back, Then asks when migrant first sent money back, but focuses on the amount of money and value of but focuses on the amount of money and value of goods sent in the past 12 monthsgoods sent in the past 12 months

Asks mechanism used, and how remittances were Asks mechanism used, and how remittances were used, permitting an appraisal of their importance used, permitting an appraisal of their importance to the household and effects on investmentto the household and effects on investment

Non-migrant questionnaireNon-migrant questionnaire

First, there is a big issue of how many non-First, there is a big issue of how many non-migrants to interview in non-migrant household, migrants to interview in non-migrant household, including whether to always include the headincluding whether to always include the head

Structure/content of questionnaire is similar to Structure/content of questionnaire is similar to that of out-migrant, from age, education, marital that of out-migrant, from age, education, marital status/fertility history, first job, to more details status/fertility history, first job, to more details about situation 4-5 years ago as well as at the about situation 4-5 years ago as well as at the current time of interviewcurrent time of interview

This allows pooling data from non-migrants and This allows pooling data from non-migrants and migrants to investigate the factors determining migrants to investigate the factors determining why these non-migrants did not migrate; and also why these non-migrants did not migrate; and also the study of (current) migration intentionsthe study of (current) migration intentions

Section 9. Return migrant questionnaireSection 9. Return migrant questionnaire

Content and structure are similar to out-migrant Content and structure are similar to out-migrant questionnaire, with questions added--on when questionnaire, with questions added--on when and why and why returnedreturned, education/training abroad and , education/training abroad and skills gained, marital status/fertility, who skills gained, marital status/fertility, who accompanied and who remained in previous accompanied and who remained in previous country, last economic activity before returningcountry, last economic activity before returning

Also questions are added on Also questions are added on currentcurrent work, work, changes in education, marital status/fertility changes in education, marital status/fertility changes, changes, since returningsince returning

Finally, questions ask about current migration Finally, questions ask about current migration intentions (to stay here, return to previous intentions (to stay here, return to previous residence, or elsewhere) and whyresidence, or elsewhere) and why

Section 10. Questionnaire for ImmigrantsSection 10. Questionnaire for Immigrants To be asked in receiving countries and others To be asked in receiving countries and others

interested, project otherwise will have data only interested, project otherwise will have data only on when came and current characteristics from on when came and current characteristics from household rosterhousehold roster

Immigrant questionnaire has questions on country Immigrant questionnaire has questions on country of origin, previous countries lived in, why left, why of origin, previous countries lived in, why left, why chose to come here, who accompanied and who chose to come here, who accompanied and who remained behind, soures of information prior to remained behind, soures of information prior to coming, documents, language skills, contacts with coming, documents, language skills, contacts with labor recruiters, etc.labor recruiters, etc.

Additional data is then sought on changes since Additional data is then sought on changes since arrival, in marital status/fertility, education, etc., arrival, in marital status/fertility, education, etc., and on current situation regarding work, migration and on current situation regarding work, migration intentionsintentions

Proper analysis of the determinants (or Proper analysis of the determinants (or consequences!) of migrationconsequences!) of migration

……also requires taking into account the effects of also requires taking into account the effects of the context in which migrants and non-migrants the context in which migrants and non-migrants live and make migration and other decisionslive and make migration and other decisions

This requires having measures of that contextThis requires having measures of that context Some key aspects of this context can be captured Some key aspects of this context can be captured

through administration of a community-level through administration of a community-level questionnaire questionnaire

This permits formulating better statistical models This permits formulating better statistical models of the decision to migrate or not, taking into of the decision to migrate or not, taking into account individual, household, and community account individual, household, and community contextual factors (multi-level, or mixed, models)contextual factors (multi-level, or mixed, models)

If we can do these things….If we can do these things…. For countries of origin and destination, with For countries of origin and destination, with

common definitions and methodologies and linked common definitions and methodologies and linked surveys, we willsurveys, we will

Provide a wealth of data for understanding the Provide a wealth of data for understanding the determinants and consequences of migration in determinants and consequences of migration in CIS states, with valuable information for policyCIS states, with valuable information for policy

And also make possible important advances in And also make possible important advances in migration data collection and analysis migration data collection and analysis methodologies.methodologies.

MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!