richard whitman, director oregon department of land conservation and development october 8, 2010

Richard Whitman, Director

Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development

October 8, 2010

Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions and Adapt to Climate Emissions and Adapt to Climate Change: A Brief Status ReportChange: A Brief Status Report

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

Fall Canceled Fall Canceled After 3 Billion SeasonsAfter 3 Billion Seasons

WASHINGTON, DC—Fall, the long- running series of shorter WASHINGTON, DC—Fall, the long- running series of shorter days and cooler nights, was canceled earlier this week days and cooler nights, was canceled earlier this week after nearly 3 billion seasons on Earth, sources reported after nearly 3 billion seasons on Earth, sources reported Tuesday Tuesday

““As much as we'd like to see it stay, fall will not be returning As much as we'd like to see it stay, fall will not be returning for another season," National Weather Service president for another season," National Weather Service president John Hayes announced during a muggy press conference John Hayes announced during a muggy press conference Nov. 6. "Fall had a great run, but sadly, times have Nov. 6. "Fall had a great run, but sadly, times have changed." changed."


OverviewOverview

MitigationMitigation – Focus on – Focus on Transportation and Land UseTransportation and Land Use

AdaptationAdaptation – Focus on Hazards – Focus on Hazards PlanningPlanning


Existing State Legislative Existing State Legislative Goals for GHG ReductionGoals for GHG Reduction

By 2010 stop growthBy 2010 stop growth By 2020 – 10% below 1990By 2020 – 10% below 1990 By 2050 – 75% below 1990By 2050 – 75% below 1990

HB 3543 (2007)HB 3543 (2007)


Oregon GHG Goals vs. ForecastOregon GHG Goals vs. Forecast


Key Recent Oregon LegislationKey Recent Oregon Legislation

MitigationMitigation HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals, HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals,

Global Warming Commission, Oregon Global Warming Commission, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)Climate Change Research Institute)

SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio standard)standard)

HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard 10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years)10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years)

HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG target for Portland Metro, transportation target for Portland Metro, transportation and land use planning to meet target)and land use planning to meet target)

SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target for other MPO areas)for other MPO areas)

Adaptation?Adaptation?


HB 2001 and SB 1059HB 2001 and SB 1059 Portland Metro (HB 2001)Portland Metro (HB 2001)

Technical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOTTechnical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOT Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011 Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012 LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred

scenario by 2013scenario by 2013 Preferred Plan adopted and implemented Preferred Plan adopted and implemented

beginning in 2013beginning in 2013

Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, Eugene-Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, Eugene-Springfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059)Springfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059) Statewide Strategy (OTC)Statewide Strategy (OTC) Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011 Toolkit, Planning GuidelinesToolkit, Planning Guidelines

Oregon Transportation Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction PlanningGHG Emission Reduction Planning

Technical Info for LCDC Rulemaking

ODOT, DEQ, and ODOE provide estimates of 1990 light vehicle GHG emissions and forecasts of future vehicle fleet and fuel characteristics.

Scenario Planning Guidelines

Guidelines and process for metropolitan areas to develop land use and transportation scenarios to meet GHG reduction targets.

•Technical Advisory Committee

Toolkit

Information on actions and programs local governments may undertake to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles.

Public Education

Statewide public outreach and education about the need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles and about the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions.

Statewide Transportation Strategy

Statewide strategy for reducing GHG emissions from the transportation sector to aid in achieving legislated GHG reduction targets.

To be adopted by the Oregon Transportation Commission.

• Policy Committee• Technical Advisory Committee

LCDC Rulemaking to SetMetropolitan Area Light Vehicle GHG Emissions Targets

•Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC)

Progress and Recommendations ReportJoint ODOT & DLCD report to 77th Legislative Assembly regarding SB 1059 progress.

Scenario Planning Financial ReportJoint ODOT, DLCD, local governments report to 76th Legislative Assembly on financing scenario planning


Technical Estimates of Vehicles, Technical Estimates of Vehicles, Fuels, VMTFuels, VMT By ODOT, DEQ, ODOEBy ODOT, DEQ, ODOE 1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of:1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of:

Vehicle fleet Vehicle fleet FuelsFuels VMTVMT

Informs state strategy and target settingInforms state strategy and target setting Advisory CommitteesAdvisory Committees

All advisory committees will review All advisory committees will review ScheduleSchedule

Final due by March 1, 2011Final due by March 1, 2011 Draft expected sooner Draft expected sooner


Statewide Transportation StrategyStatewide Transportation Strategy

By ODOT/OTCBy ODOT/OTC Covers transportation sector; statewideCovers transportation sector; statewide State programs and policies to reduce GHGState programs and policies to reduce GHG Includes assumptions about federal policies Includes assumptions about federal policies

Advisory CommitteesAdvisory Committees Policy CommitteePolicy Committee Technical Advisory CommitteeTechnical Advisory Committee

ScheduleSchedule Phase 1 – Early 2011 - Light vehicles Phase 1 – Early 2011 - Light vehicles Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of

transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air, transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air, marine, rail etc.) marine, rail etc.)


Target RulemakingTarget Rulemaking By LCDCBy LCDC For each metropolitan areaFor each metropolitan area Informed by agency estimates and Informed by agency estimates and

statewide strategystatewide strategyAdvisory CommitteeAdvisory Committee

Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC) (TRAC)

ScheduleSchedule Due by June 1, 2011Due by June 1, 2011


Scenario Planning GuidelinesScenario Planning Guidelines By ODOT and DLCD Advisory Process for scenario planning

Steps/ who does it Assumptions Evaluation methods

Allow for a range of actions for reducing GHG Integrate with existing planning processes Advisory CommitteeAdvisory Committee

Scenario Planning Technical Advisory Scenario Planning Technical Advisory CommitteeCommittee

ScheduleSchedule Draft by April 2011Draft by April 2011 Final Fall 2011Final Fall 2011


ToolkitToolkit By ODOT and DLCDBy ODOT and DLCD Best Practices for GHG reductionBest Practices for GHG reduction Local & regional programs and actionsLocal & regional programs and actions

Provide examplesProvide examples Document GHG reduction effects Document GHG reduction effects Identify benefits/ co-benefitsIdentify benefits/ co-benefits

Recommend Analysis and Modeling ToolsRecommend Analysis and Modeling Tools ScheduleSchedule

Draft by April 2011Draft by April 2011 Final Fall 2011Final Fall 2011

Cool Planning: Version 1.0Cool Planning: Version 1.0


Cool PlanningCool Planning(www.oregon.gov/LCD/TGM/index(www.oregon.gov/LCD/TGM/index))


Scenario Planning Funding Scenario Planning Funding ReportReport By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with

metropolitan local governments metropolitan local governments Estimate funding local governments need Estimate funding local governments need

to conduct scenario planningto conduct scenario planning Schedule Schedule

Report to Legislature due January 2011Report to Legislature due January 2011 Consultation starts later this monthConsultation starts later this month


Education & OutreachEducation & Outreach

Strategy to be developedStrategy to be developed Outreach to public aboutOutreach to public about

Need to reduce GHG emissions from Need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicle travellight vehicle travel

Costs and benefits of GHG emission Costs and benefits of GHG emission reductionreduction


Part 2:Part 2:Climate Change AdaptationClimate Change Adaptation

in Oregonin Oregon

Climate Change Integration Climate Change Integration Group (CCIG) Report (Jan. Group (CCIG) Report (Jan. 2008) (initial recommendations 2008) (initial recommendations for adaptationfor adaptation

OCCRI – State of the Climate OCCRI – State of the Climate Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010)Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010)


Likely changes in future Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregonclimate conditions in Oregon1.1. Increase in average annual air temperaturesIncrease in average annual air temperatures

2.2. Changes in hydrology, water supply, and water quality; Changes in hydrology, water supply, and water quality; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins, reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins, changes in timing of water availabilitychanges in timing of water availability

3.3. Increased incidence of droughtIncreased incidence of drought

4.4. Increased coastal erosion from increasing sea levels and Increased coastal erosion from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges related to increasing wave heights and storm surges related to intensification of North Pacific winter stormsintensification of North Pacific winter storms

5.5. Shift in distribution of habitats and species, with a likely Shift in distribution of habitats and species, with a likely increase in invasive species and reduced ability of increase in invasive species and reduced ability of terrestrial and aquatic habitats to support wildlife species terrestrial and aquatic habitats to support wildlife species and populationsand populations


Likely changes in future Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregonclimate conditions in Oregon6.6. Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes

in ocean chemistry (nutrients and dissolved oxygen) and in ocean chemistry (nutrients and dissolved oxygen) and increased ocean acidificationincreased ocean acidification

7.7. Increased frequency of extreme daily precipitation eventsIncreased frequency of extreme daily precipitation events

8.8. Increase in wildfire frequency and intensityIncrease in wildfire frequency and intensity

9.9. Increase in incidence and magnitude of damaging floodsIncrease in incidence and magnitude of damaging floods

10. Increase in incidence of landslides10. Increase in incidence of landslides

11. Increase in diseases, insect pests, and plant pests11. Increase in diseases, insect pests, and plant pests

12. Loss of wetland ecosystem services12. Loss of wetland ecosystem services


Outline of Adaptation FrameworkOutline of Adaptation Framework1.1. Risk assessmentRisk assessment2.2. Likelihood of the riskLikelihood of the risk3.3. Timing and geography of the risk Timing and geography of the risk 4.4. Related risksRelated risks5.5. Summary of consequences of the risk Summary of consequences of the risk

Ecosystems Ecosystems Built and developed systems Built and developed systems Economic systemsEconomic systemsPublic health and safety Public health and safety

6. Gaps in state capacity to address the risk: 6. Gaps in state capacity to address the risk: 7.7. Needed actionsNeeded actions

a. Priority Actions a. Priority Actions b. Actions that apply to several risksb. Actions that apply to several risksc. Additional actionsc. Additional actions

8.8. Implementing the framework Implementing the framework a. Information base for decisionsa. Information base for decisionsb. Monitoring b. Monitoring c. Coordination with local governments, federal c. Coordination with local governments, federal agencies, & other partnersagencies, & other partners

9.9. ReferencesReferences


Adaptation Framework: Adaptation Framework: Short-Term Priority ActionsShort-Term Priority Actions

For each major risk – short term For each major risk – short term priority actions that the state priority actions that the state should consider (low hanging fruit)should consider (low hanging fruit)

Initial cost-benefit analysisInitial cost-benefit analysis

Delivered to the new Governor Delivered to the new Governor and legislature in December 2010and legislature in December 2010


Questions?Questions?

More Information:More Information:

GHG Mitigation in Transportation: GHG Mitigation in Transportation: Bob Cortright Bob Cortright

[[email protected]] [[email protected]]

Climate Adaptation Framework: Climate Adaptation Framework: Jeff WeberJeff Weber [[email protected]] [[email protected]]

richard whitman, director oregon department of land conservation and development october 8, 2010

Documents

transportation ghg target

ghg reduction goals

ghg reduction targets

ghg reductionby

transportation scenarios

light vehicle ghg emissions

land use planning

legislative assembly