richenda connell uk climate impacts programme tools for climate risk management: the ukcip climate...
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Richenda ConnellUK Climate Impacts Programme
Tools for climate risk management: The UKCIP climate adaptation risk
framework and the UKCIP adaptation wizard
SICCIA, Eibsee Hotel, Grainau, Germany, 30 June 2004
Outline
• Introduction to UKCIP, studies & partnerships• UKCIP/Environment Agency climate adaptation risk
management framework: How it works & key principles• Semi-fictional case study: Application of framework to a water
resources decision• Prototype UKCIP adaptation wizard
UKCIP provides a bridge between decision-makers and climate scientists
• ‘The UK Climate Impacts Programme helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so they can prepare for its impacts’
• UKCIP: – promotes stakeholder-led, problem-oriented research – provides core tools (CC scenarios etc)– provides guidance/advice for partnerships and studies– encourages integrated approaches
• Set up in 1997 • Funded by UK Government Department for Environment, Food & Rural
Affairs (Defra)• Based at University of Oxford
Note: UKCIP set up for climate change; just beginning to consider ‘climate risks’ more generally
UKCIP includes regional & sectoral studies & partnerships
AgricultureBuilt environmentBusinessGardens Health Local authoritiesMarine biodiversity Nature conservationREGIS (integrated)Water demand
Three Devolved Administrations: Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland
Nine English Regions
Regional: Sectoral:
Regional studies provide overview of a range of possible climate impacts. Studies now complete for whole of UK
Impact study findings are integrated in key regional planning
documents…
UKCIP02 climate change scenarios
‘London’s warming’
scoping study
The London Plan (spatial development strategy for Greater
London)
Impact study findings are integrated in key regional planning
documents…“The Mayor will and boroughs should assess and develop policies for the likely impacts of climate change on London identified in the work of the London Climate Change Partnership. Policies will be developed in conjunction with the Partnership and addressed in the first review of the London Plan.”
(London Plan, 2004)
..but most UK decision-makers have not yet made adaptation decisions
• Is adaptation needed?
• If adaptation is (perhaps) needed:
– How much adaptation?– Choice of adaptation measures?– When to adapt?
UKCIP/EA report provides a decision-making framework for managing climate risks
• Framework describes process for appraisal and management of risks and uncertainties
• Similar to others used for corporate risk management – recognisable to decision-makers
• Enables climate risks to be ‘mainstreamed’ within existing processes
Background to problem
Climate sensitive?
– Adaptation, influenced, constraining?
Type of decision?
Stakeholders?
Timescales?
Stage 1: Identify problem and objectives
Case study: Identify problem and objectives
• Silver Birches is a large tree growing business in East of England
• Currently relies on mains water to irrigate pot-grown trees
• Managing Director is worried about risk of water supply being cut off – even though this has not happened before
• This is a climate adaptation problem
1
Decision-maker’s objectives
Success criteria
Legislative requirements or guidance
Attitudes to risk - optimistic, precautionary (‘risk averse’), etc
Resources
Stage 2: Establish decision making criteria
Receptors and exposure units
Risk assessment endpoints
Assessment period
Project management issues
Define what makes the correct decision
• Need operational criteria for risk assessment and options appraisal
• Take account of defined thresholds and risk attitude (optimistic, precautionary/risk averse, least regret)
2
• Objective: “Business to survive and prosper for next 20 years”
• Criteria: Options will be judged against ability to provide secure water supply for next 20 years – consultant to define criteria
• Risk attitude: M.D. is very risk averse to water supply loss – trees die in 15 days
• Other criteria: Cost, practicality, reliability, feasibility, water quality, flexibility, contingency planning, response of employees, implications for neighbours
Case study: Establish decision making criteria
2
12 month total precipitation for calendar year
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Calendar year
Tota
l pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m)
391 mm =driest year on record (1963-2002)
Trigger level = 411 mm or 5% above driest year on record
Case study: Establish decision making criteriaConsultant’s recommended trigger point:
5% above lowest 12 month precipitation on record
• Identify and characterize:
– climate and non-climate risk factors (climate variables)
– pathways and receptors
• Screen and prioritize risks
• Describe uncertainties
– reducible v. irreducible
– explicit assumptions
Stage 3: Assess risk
Give appropriate attention to all risks & uncertainties
3
• Climate variables: Which characteristics are important? – magnitude, direction, averaging period, statistical basis. How may these change?
• Info on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain – but risk assessment may show these are highest risk
• Uncertainty in non-climate risks & impact models may be of greater significance than uncertainties over climate hazards
• Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties
Tools for identifying and describing uncertainty should be more widely used
(Walker et al. (2003). Defining uncertainty: A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integrated Assessment, 4,(1), 5-17.)
Case study: Assess risk SDSM M-H emissions scenario simulated rainfall 2003-2023
Running 12 month total rainfall 2003-2023
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700Ja
n-0
3
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
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Jan
-18
Jan
-19
Jan
-20
Jan
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Jan
-22
Jan
-23
Date
To
tal r
ain
fall
(mm
) fo
r p
rev
iou
s 1
2 m
on
ths
Trigger level = 411 mm or 5% above driest year on record (1963 – 2002)
• Types of option (Do nothing?)
• Generic adaptation strategies
• No/low regret options
• Flexible options ‘adaptive management’
• Delay decisions
Stage 4: Identify options
Generic climate risk management options• Use of risk-based policy and project appraisal
process and techniques
• Delay and buy-time
• Research
• Monitoring - system performance - climate impact monitoring
• Information supply, education, awareness raising
• Contingency planning–- low probability, high consequence events–- strategic planning response
Proactive
Proactive
Proactive or Strategic
ProactiveReactive
Proactive orReactive
Strategic
Generic climate risk management optionsProactive
Proactive
Proactive or Reactive
ProactiveReactive
Proactive orReactive
Proactive, Strategic
• Diversification or bet-hedging– Technical or policy
• Insurance – financial
• Defend and manage
• Change of use – planning response +/- technical measures
• Retreat and abandon – strategic planning response
• Safety factors, climate headroom, buffering measures
– technical and regulatory response
Adaptive management is recommended when dealing with uncertainty
• Useful for decision-makers to keep open / increase options that allow climate adaptation in future, when need for adaptation and performance of different measures is less uncertain
• Circular, iterative framework promotes adaptive management• Avoid implementing adaptation constraining decisions
45
Case study: Identify options
•Do nothing•Diversify water supply / investigate other water supply options•Try contract with water supply company to guarantee minimum supply•Move or change business•Change crop type•Contract out tree growing•Water recycling•Joint venture with neighbours to develop alternative supplies•Insurance
Mains water supply to trees
Do nothing: Current management practice
Adaptation option 1: Infrastructural strategy
Build reservoir & abstract 7,200m3 per month from drain to reservoirKeep reservoir half full (18,000 m3) in case water supply is cut during drought event
Mains water supply to trees
Drain to reservoir
Reservoir to trees
half full (18,000 m3)
Adaptation option 2: Informational strategy Build reservoir & abstract 7,200m3 per month from drain to reservoirUse all available reservoir storage - do not reserve any capacityMonitor rainfall against 411mm trigger levelWhen trigger reached, immediately buy enough supply from mains supplier to meet needs for next 2 months
Mains water supply to trees
Drain to reservoir
Reservoir to treesMains water supply to reservoir
• Assess performance against decision-making criteria
• Sensitivity of options to uncertainty
• Implementation risks
Stage 5: Appraise options
Stage 5: Appraise Options Performance of infrastructural strategy
Performance of infrastructural strategy during 2019-20 drought event
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Date
Wat
er a
vaila
ble
/req
uir
ed (
cub
ic m
etre
s)
Monthlyirrigationrequirement
Wateravailable inreservoir (orfrommains/drain)
Assume mains water supply cut 1 September
Reservoir storage for use during drought event/ mains supply cut off
Runs out of water in May
Stage 5: Appraise Options Performance of informational strategy
Performance of informational strategy during 2019-2020 drought event
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Apr
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Date
Wat
er a
vaila
ble
/req
uir
ed (
cub
ic m
etre
s)
Monthlyirrigationrequirement
Wateravailable inreservoir (orfrommains/drain)
Rainfall trigger reached
Assume mains water supply cut 1 September
£153,000 cheaper than infrastructural strategy over 20 yrs
Runs out of water in June
• Preferred option?
• Appropriate problem definition and decision criteria?
• Decision robust to uncertainty?
• Confirm attitude to climate risks
Stage 6: Make decision
Decision risks - Under-adaptation
Actual importance of factors
Perceived importance of factors
None Moderate Large
None
Moderate
Large
Significance of non-climate risk factors
Sig
nif
ican
ce o
f c l
ima t
e ri
sk f
a ct o
r s
Under-adaptation
Significance of non-climate risk factors
Decision risks - Over-adaptation
Perceived importance of factors
Actual importance of factors
None Moderate Large
None
Moderate
Large
Significance of non-climate risk factors
Sig
nif
ican
ce o
f c l
ima t
e ri
sk f
a ct o
r s
Over-adaptation
• Both reservoir management options do well, but fail eventually during very prolonged drought
• But informational strategy has cost benefit
• Other considerations:
– Building reservoir will require abstraction licence
– Use of reservoir will have implications for others
• Other options that could be explored include:
– Build a bigger reservoir
– Contract with water company
• Note: Not all uncertainties addressed
Case study: Make decision
• M.D. should monitor
– 12-month running total rainfall (informational strategy)
– Use of mains water supply
– Business growth
– Number of trees
– New information on climate risks
– Water company supply agreements and pricing policy
Case study: Implement decision/Monitor, evaluate review
Applications of the framework thus far
• ‘Designing for thermal comfort in a 21st century climate’ (Ove Arup & Partners, funded by Department of Trade and Industry)
• ‘The Planning Response to Climate Change: Advice on Better Practice’ (CAG consultants & Oxford Brookes University for Office of the Deputy Prime Minister)
• ‘Strategic Environmental Assessment and Climate Change: Guidance for Practitioners’ (Levett-Therivel Sustainability Consultants, UKCIP et al)
• ‘Climate change and tourism in the Northwest’ (Ongoing) (University of Manchester & Tyndall Centre for Northwest Climate Group)
• Next: Developing framework for application by companies & investors (Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change with UKCIP, Environment Agency)
Lessons learned so far from application of risk framework
• Decision-making including climate risks is complex, even for relatively simple problems!
• Using a structured framework helps
• Structuring the problem and choosing decision-making criteria (stages 1 & 2) are essential, often not given enough attention
• Decision-maker’s attitude to risks is instrumental re. identifying and choosing between options
• Process of working through framework throws up new ideas – early stages may need revisiting
UKCIP adaptation wizard
• Aims to help decision-makers move through a process from simple understanding of climate risks, to integration of these risks into decision-making, making use of all UKCIP tools and resources
• Draws heavily on risk framework, but less comprehensive • Web-based • Prototype version available at www.ukcip.org.uk/wizard• Comments welcome!
Four levels of entry
Level Start at this step if you …
Scoping impacts ..are beginning to think about climate risks for the first time and are unsure whether they are important
Quantifying risks ..have already identified most important climate risks & are beginning to consider them in more detail, to work out whether you need to adapt
Decision-making & action planning
..have already assessed risks and identified that you need to adapt
Adaptation strategy review
..already have an adaptation strategy, developed through a risk-based assessment, and want to check if it needs modifying
Conclusions and recommendations - 1
• Emphasis on understanding climate variability
• Decision-maker’s problem and objectives are central to understanding adaptation problem
• Hierarchical/tiered/iterative approach is useful
• Importance of climate risk benchmarks (tolerable risk)
• Essential to understand attitude to risk (tolerable risk)
Resources