rights issue of approx. 2,250m - cmvmweb3.cmvm.pt/sdi2004/emitentes/docs/fr51030.pdf · the matters...
TRANSCRIPT
Roadshow presentation
rights issue of approx. €2,250m
June 2014
2
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(a) To legal entities which are qualified investors as defined under the Prospectus Directive;
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(c) In any other circumstances not requiring the Company to publish a prospectus as provided under Article 3(2) of the Prospectus Directive.
3
DISCLAIMER (2/2)
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Regulation (EC) 1606/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 July 2002, as amended.
The figures presented do not constitute any form of commitment by the Company in regard to future earnings.
KPMG performed review procedures in accordance with International Standards on Review Performance Engagements 2410, “Review of Interim Financial Information Performed by the Independent Auditor
of the Entity”, on the 31 March 2014 consolidated unaudited financial statements of the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries.
In accordance with the requirements of article 13 of Appendix I to the EU Prospectus regulation, the external auditors reviewed the adequacy of the compilation of the prospective financial information
based on the assumptions stated and selected by management and the consistency of the basis of accounting with the accounting policies of Millennium bcp as disclosed in the notes to the financial
statements as at 31 December 2013. Please refer to the report issued by KPMG for more details.
4
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
The matters discussed in this presentation may include forward-looking statements, including the Company’s strategic plan, the Company’s recapitalisation plan, the Company’s restructuring plan, the
development of the Company’s Core Tier I capital, the Company’s liquidity and access to funding, the Company's repayment of the hybrid instruments held by the Portuguese Republic, the Company’s
borrowings from the European Central Bank, implementation of the Company’s funding and capital plan, the development of the economies of the countries in which the Company operates, the
Company’s growth internationally and the future performance of the Company. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties because they relate to
events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future and may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from future
results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the Company’s ability to successfully
implement its strategic plan, the Company’s ability to successfully implement its recapitalisation plan, the Company’s ability to successfully implement its restructuring plan, the Company’s ability to
successfully implement its funding and capital plan, the successful implementation of economic reforms in Portugal, the Company’s ability to access financing on the capital markets, the adequacy of
the Company's current provisions against non-performing loans, the quality of the Company’s assets, the Company’s ability to reduce costs, the Company’s ability to deleverage, assumptions included
in the Company’s financial models, the financial condition of the Company's customers, reductions in the Company’s credit rating, growth of the financial markets in the countries in which the
Company operates, the Company’s ability to grow internationally, future market conditions, currency fluctuations, the actions of regulators, changes in the political, social and regulatory framework
in which the Company operates, macroeconomic or technological trends or conditions, including inflation and consumer confidence, and other risk factors identified in the prospectus and offering
circular prepared in connection with the proposed offering.
All forward-looking statements included herein are based on information available to the Company as of the date hereof. The Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any
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Attendees at this presentation are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Even if the Company’s financial
condition, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or
developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The Company and each of the Banks expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or
revisions to these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
5
Transaction overview: approx. €2,250m rights issue
Amount and
structure
Terms and
conditions
Rights offering of approx. €2,250m with transferable pre-emptive subscription rights
Approx. 34,488 million new shares issued
Subscription ratio: 7 new shares for 4 existing shares
Subscription price of €0.065 per share
34% discount to TERP based on closing price of 24th June
Listing: Euronext Lisbon
Syndicate of banks, underwriting 100% of the transaction: Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan as
Joint Global Coordinators, Goldman Sachs International and UBS Investment Bank as Joint
Bookrunners, Credit Suisse and MEDIOBANCA as Co-Bookrunners and BBVA, Banco Santander,
Nomura, and Société Générale Corporate & Investment Banking as Co-Lead Managers
Rationale
Reimbursement of
State-held CoCos
Strengthen capital
ratios and maintain
capital discipline
New steady state
Full anticipation of the repayment schedule: reimbursement of €1,850m of CoCos now
(totaling €2,250m in 2014) and remaining €750m no later than the beginning of 2016*
Positive impact of more than €300m** on net income
Mitigate the restrictions associated with State aid
Mitigate the tail risk of conversion
Enhance the capital mix
Approaching to the new benchmark CET I ratio of 10% (fully implemented) with
improvement of capital ratios compared to March 2014
Focus on capital efficiency through the distribution of eventual excess capital
CET I ratio at 10% (fully implemented), ROE at 15% and a dividend pay-out ratio of 50%
* Subject to approval by Bank of Portugal
** Lower cost of CoCos for the period 2014-17 due to their earlier repayment, versus previous repayment schedule
6
Timetable of the rights issue
Rights trading period
Rights subscription period
Rights issue take-up announcement
Announcement of rights issue terms
Approval of prospectus by CMVM
Ex-rights date 1 July
4 – 18 July
27 June
22 July
24 June
4 – 14 July
Settlement of exercised rights
New shares start trading
23 July
28 July
7
8.4% 8.2% 9.0%
0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
4.9% 4.1%
Mar 14 CET I ratio *
Non-life insurance
sale
Reimbursement of CoCos (€400m)
Synthetic securitisation
CET I before transaction
Rights issue (€2,250m)
Reimburs. of CoCos
(€1,850m)
CET1 ratio 1Q14 pro-forma
Target
10%
Outstanding CoCos (€m)
CET I ratio fully implemented of 8.4% as of March 2014 assuming a conservative (although not definitive)
interpretation of the proposed DTA legislation
Following the repayment of €400m CoCos on 27 May 2014, the transaction will allow a reimbursement of
additional €1,850m CoCos, leaving €750m outstanding
Improvement of c. €50m in net interest income per quarter as a result of CoCos repayment and savings of c.
€500m in net interest income and more than €300m in net income between 2014-17 compared to the previous
repayment schedule
Pro-forma 9.0% fully implemented CET1 ratio, above the regulatory minimum and approaching our 10% target
Transaction impact on CET1 ratio (fully implemented)
Remaining CoCos to be repaid no later than the beginning of 2016 **
The transaction will strengthen the solvency position and allow a
substantial repayment of CoCos
0.0
* Calculated based on a conservative interpretation of the proposed DTA regulation published on 12 June 2014
** Subject to approval by Bank of Portugal
3,000 2,600 750
8
Investment highlights
Leading
position in
Portugal,
benefiting from
economic
recovery
Further deleveraging, now at a slower pace, and focused on growing on-balance sheet customer funds in order to
reduce wholesale and ECB funding needs. By 2017, 100% of bank’s lending activities are expected to be funded with
customer funds
Stabilisation of credit at risk ratios and marked reduction of new NPL entries. Reinforcement of coverage ratios
The rights issue will allow reimbursement of €1,850m CoCos and strengthen the solvency position. With expected
organic capital generation in excess of €2.0bn by 2017, the Bank aims to ensure capital efficiency through the
distribution of eventual excess capital
Strengthening
of the balance
sheet
Profitable and stable operation in Poland: Bank Millennium increased net income from €81m in 2010 to €127m in
2013, remaining the 5th largest Polish bank by number of branches. The bank is expected to continue to grow driven by
an expected average nominal GDP growth rate of 6% between 2014-17
High growth operations in Mozambique and Angola: Millennium bim is the largest bank in Mozambique with market
share in excess of 30% and an ROE of 22%. Having entered Angola in 2006, Millennium Angola reached 18% ROE and
recently opened its 82nd branch in the country. Net income of African operations increased from €76m in 2010 to
€126m in 2013, and is expected to grow further given an expected average nominal GDP growth rate of 12-14%
between 2014-17 according to IMF
Profitable
international
growth
Delivery on the
restructuring
plan in Portugal
BCP has the leading private sector commercial banking franchise in Portugal by loans, deposits, customers and
branches
BCP has a universal banking model with a strong focus on retail and SME clients, having the country’s second largest
distribution network and serving c. 2.3 million customers
Portugal continues to deliver on its commitments and investors have recognised Portugal is on the right track, as
reflected by the fall in the 10-year government yield from a peak of 17.4% (January 12) to less than 3.5% (June 14)
The Bank made significant progress towards the implementation of its Strategic Plan. This includes:
– Commercial gap decreased by €22bn from Dec 09 to Mar 14, while LTD ratio decreased from 162% in Dec 09 to 116%
in Mar 14;
– RWA decreased by €23bn (-34%) from Dec 09 to Mar 14;
– Time deposit spread in Portugal decreased by 118bp, from 310bp in 2012 to 192bp in 1Q14
– Operating costs in Portugal reduced by 30%* from 2008 to 2013, mainly as a result of the 16% reduction in the
branch network and 19% reduction in employees
– Cost of risk decreased from the peak of 186bp in 2011 to 129bp in 1Q14
* Excluding specific items
9
Agenda
1. Portuguese macroeconomic update
2. Strategic plan
A. Main drivers and targets
B. Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
C. Stronger capital position
D. Portugal: recovery of profitability
E. International presence focused on strong growth markets
F. More comfortable liquidity position
3. Investment case
10
94
108
124 129 130 129 126
119
91 104
117 123 123 123 120 117
148
170 157
174 175 171 163
154
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Portugal Ireland Greece
Fiscal consolidation creates the conditions for the sustainability of the
public debt, leading to normalisation of yield levels on sovereign debt
10y Portuguese bonds (yield, %) (Public debt, as % of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Finance (DEO, 30 April 2014) and IMF
Source: Ministry of Finance (DEO, 30 April 2014)
Yields have been reducing markedly
…with significant effort on the expenditure side
Debt level is expected to peak in 2014
Budget deficit decreases…
10.2 9.8
4.3
6.4
4.9 4.0
2.5 2.0
0.7
9.2 8.8 6.5
4.2
2.8 2.1 1.3
0.8 0.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Headline
Structural
(as % of GDP) (total expenditure, as % of GDP)
Source: Thomson Reuters
49.8
51.5
49.4
47.4
48.6
47.1
45.8 44.8
43.8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Source: Ministry of Finance (DEO, 30 April 2014)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average: >10%
Average: ~4%
<4%
11
Portugal is undergoing profound structural reforms, which are already
showing positive results
Structural changes in the economy and the
public sector are being undertaken to
increase the external competitiveness of
the country and of the private sector
An example of the impact of the measures
implemented is the new labour code
The positive impact of the structural changes is already apparent, with the improvement of the real
GDP growth, external accounts and unemployment rate
Real GDP Growth rate (yoy)
Source: Bank of Portugal and European Commission
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-2.9
1.9
-1.3
-3.2
-1.4
1.1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
-10.8 -10.4
-7.2
-1.9
0.5 1.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Source: Bank of Portugal
Source: Bank of Portugal
-1.1% -0.8% -1.7%
-4.9%
0.6%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Unemployment rate (%)
Source: INE
12.4 12.4
14.9
15.8
17.7
15.6 15.1
1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14
Competitiveness
gains over 8%
(2009-13)
Difference in annual change of nominal unit labor
costs in Portugal vs. euro area
12
The Portuguese recovery is supported by balanced growth
Exports index
Quarterly real GDP growth rate Investment in machinery and equipment (GFCF)
(%, yoy)
(real, index 4Q10=100)
100
107
112 109
113
119 119
113 115
119
126
119 123
4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13
Consumer confidence indicator
Source: INE
-58 -58
-53 -55 -54 -55
-52 -51
-44 -41
-44 -41
-37
-32 -29
-31 -31
D12 F13 A13 J13 A13 O13 D13 F14 A14
-2.4
-3.2 -3.6 -3.8
-4.0
-2.0
-0.9
1.5 1.3
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
(real, index 1Q12=100)
100 97
103
97 98 100
102
113
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Recovery of internal demand expected to support economic growth going forward
13
Resilient real estate prices and declining
unemployment…
BCP has a leading position in Portugal and is in a privileged position to
benefit from the economic recovery
As cost of deposits normalises…
Deposit
position
Loan position
Asset
quality
position
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13
Cost of deposits differential (Portugal vs Germany)
…BCP set to benefit given high share of
deposits in its funding structure
-2.4 -3.2 -3.6 -3.8 -4.0
-2.0 -0.9
1.5 1.3
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Source: European Central Bank
Source: INE
Pick-up in GDP growth…
…to contribute to positive asset quality
trends at BCP
0
100
200
300
Dec 99 Jun 04 Dec 08 Jun 13
Portugal property index
Spain property index
Source: Bank of International Settlements
1.5 1.5
1.5 1.5
1.4 1.4
12.2% 13.0% 13.9% 13.7% 13.1% 13.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Foreclosed assets NPL ratio
Individuals 47%
SME 27%
Other companies
26%
Loans (Mar 14)
* Total deposits
Source: BoP
19.3%
market
share *
17.2%
market
share 16.7%
market
share
…which BCP is best placed to capture
Source: INE
12.4
14.9
17.7
15.1
1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14
Unemployment rate (%)
53% 68%
Dec 10 Mar 14
% of deposits in the funding structure
of BCP group
62%
38%
Deposits (Mar 14)
Retail
Others
14
Agenda
1. Portuguese macroeconomic update
2. Strategic plan
A. Main drivers and targets
B. Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
C. Stronger capital position
D. Portugal: recovery of profitability
E. International presence focused on strong growth markets
F. More comfortable liquidity position
3. Investment case
15
Main drivers and targets
Recovery of profitability
in Portugal
Sustainable growth of
net income, more
balanced between
domestic and
international businesses
Creating
conditions for
growth and
profitability
(2014-15)
Sustainable
growth
(2016-17)
Continued development
of business in Poland,
Mozambique and Angola
Phases Priorities Main drivers
Stronger balance sheet
Reduce
wholesale
funding
dependence
Recovery in
operating income
Additional
reduction in
operating costs
Adopt strict limits
to risk taking
Wind down or
divest the non-
core portfolio
1Q14 2015 2017
CET I (phased-in)
(fully implemented)
11.9% * >10%
>10%
>10%
LTD ** 106% <110% <100%
C/I 55% ~50% ~40%
Operating costs
(€m) 690 *** ~660 ~660
Cost of risk (bp) 129 *** ~100 <100
ROE (7)% *** ~7% ~15%
* Calculated based on a conservative interpretation of the proposed DTA regulation published on 12 June 2014
** Loans to deposits ratio is defined as net loans divided by on-balance sheet customer funds
*** Annualised
Demanding
economic
environment
(2012-13)
Main group targets
16
Agenda
1. Portuguese macroeconomic update
2. Strategic plan
A. Main drivers and targets
B. Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
C. Stronger capital position
D. Portugal: recovery of profitability
E. International presence focused on strong growth markets
F. More comfortable liquidity position
3. Investment case
17
29 28 21
13 8 7
Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Mar 14
66 60
55 53
44 43
Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Mar 14
Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
Risk weighted assets – BoP *
Core tier I ratio – BoP * Commercial gap (net loans – deposits)
(Billion euros) -23
6.4% 6.7%
9.3%
12.4% 13.8% 13.9%
Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Mar 14
€4bn €4bn €5bn €7bn €6bn €6bn
(%) (Billion euros)
-22
162% Loans to deposits ratio
147% Loans to on BS funds ratio
116%
106%
Funding structure
43% 47% 41% 37% 33% 32%
57% 53% 59% 63% 67% 68%
Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Mar 14
other funding customer deposits
CT I capital
(%)
Significant improvement in capital ratios Strong reduction of the commercial gap and
reinforcement of deposits-based funding
* Stated, BoP definition
18
Agenda
1. Portuguese macroeconomic update
2. Strategic plan
A. Main drivers and targets
B. Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
C. Stronger capital position
D. Portugal: recovery of profitability
E. International presence focused on strong growth markets
F. More comfortable liquidity position
3. Investment case
19
The bank complies with the regulatory capital requirements
12.1%
13.9% 14.2%
10.0%
Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 14 (pro forma
transaction)
Required
Core tier I ratio (%) - BdP Common equity tier I ratio (%) - CRD IV/CRR
8.4% 9.0%
11.9% 12.2%
8.0%
Mar 14 * Mar 14 * (pro forma
transaction)
Mar 14 * Mar 14 * (pro forma
transaction)
AQR threshold **
Fully
implemented
Phased in
Core tier I ratio (BdP) at 13.9%
Common equity tier I ratio (CRD IV/CRR, phased in) at 11.9% and 8.4% at fully implemented *
* Calculated based on a conservative interpretation of the proposed DTA regulation published on 12 June 2014
** Base case scenario
20
2.25 3.0 >2.0 >1.0 3.8 >4.2
Mar 14 ** Rights issue
CoCos reimb.
Organic capital generation ***
Dec 17 Capital above 10% Target
The transaction is expected to accelerate the achievement of the strategic plan,
anticipating the reimbursement of CoCos and enhancing organic capital generation
CET I ratio evolution
Expected repayment of all CoCos subscribed by the
State no later than the beginning of 2016*, saving
c. €500m in net interest income in 2014-17 period,
compared to the previous repayment schedule
BCP expected to achieve a CET I ratio
(CRD IV/CRR) fully implemented of more than 10%
in 2017
Expected to be obtained through retained earnings
and RWA reduction
8.4% ~13%
(Billion euros)
New repayment schedule for CoCos
0.75
3.00 2.25
2012 2014 2015/16
Issue Reimbursement
45.3 ~42
* Subject to approval by Bank of Portugal
** Calculated based on a conservative interpretation of the proposed DTA regulation published on 12 June 2014
*** Includes changes in fully implemented CRD4/CRR capital deductions
>10%
11.9% >13%
~42
>10%
CET I ratio (fully implemented)
Risk weighted assets
CET I ratio (phased-in)
(Billion euros)
21
Agenda
1. Portuguese macroeconomic update
2. Strategic plan
A. Main drivers and targets
B. Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
C. Stronger capital position
D. Portugal: recovery of profitability
E. International presence focused on strong growth markets
F. More comfortable liquidity position
3. Investment case
22
212.7
292.6
1Q13 1Q14
185.4 172.6
1Q13 1Q14
Three drivers of profitability recovery in Portugal: operating
income, efficiency and asset quality
Boost banking income
Increase operating efficiency
Reduction of cost of risk
2
3
Reduction in credit delinquencies as a result of the winding
down of the non core portfolio and the macro stabilisation
Achievement of operational efficiency through a reduction
of the number of branches and employees
Decrease in interest expense due to better spreads,
benefiting from proactive repricing policy of term
deposits and the reimbursement of CoCos
Rebalancing of the loan book between SME/consumer
and mortgages
Elimination of State guarantees fees (€60m in 2013)
considering the redemption of the debt issues guaranteed
by the State
Main drivers First signs
Banking income in Portugal (Million euros)
Operating costs in Portugal
(Million euros) -6.9%
Net new entries in NPL in Portugal (Million euros)
185
1Q13 1Q14
-52.3%
+37.6%
388
1
23
1,170
343
462
2008 2013 2015 * 2017 *
CoCos and LM 2011
Net interest income (stated)
1 Improvement of NII through reduction of extraordinary items (CoCos
and LM 2011), lower deposit spread and changing business mix
Net interest income
CoCos and the "LM 2011" expected to have the
biggest impact…
…and the rebalancing of the loan book,
assuming no volume growth
Loan book spread (basis points) vs. Euribor 3M
…followed by the continuous improvement in
deposit spread…
Time deposit spread (basis points) vs. Euribor 3M
30
(310) (239)
~(175) ~(150) ~(75)
2008 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017
35% 42% 39%
65% 58% 61%
Dec 08 Dec 13 Dec 17
Non mortgage Mortgage
+
94 131 128
179
430 415 <390
2008 2013 1Q14 2015 2017
Companies
Mortgage
+164bp
* Post right issue
(Million euros)
24
Overachievement of previous targets: cost base target lower by
€-140m and to be achieved 2 years earlier than the initial plan
686 603 525 433 424
445 372
300 263 234
1,257 1,041
865 734 690 ~660 ~660
2000 2008 2012 2013 2014 ** 2015 2017
Operating costs * (Million euros)
Staff cost Admin. Amortisations
...reducing more than 20% of branches and
employees Reduction of operating costs by more than 30%
versus pre-programme levels...
Cost reduction among peripheral banks ***
* Excluding specific items
** Annualised 1Q14
*** Peripheral banks include banks in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Certain banks excluded as cost base is affected by acquisitions
-32%
-22% -21% -20%
-15% -12%
-10%
-6% -5% -4% -4%
B1 B2 BCP B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 B9 B10 B11 B12
(2011-13, consolidated)
Track record in cost
cutting
1,383
918 885 839 774 748 ~700 ~700
2000 2008 2011 2012 2013 Mar 14 2015 2017
Total branches (#)
16,099
10,583 9,959 8,982 8,584 8,504 <8,000 ~7,500
2000 2008 2011 2012 2013 Mar 14 2015 2017
Employees (#)
Other Portuguese banks
2
Source: Annual reports of the banks
25
7.3%
10.3%
12.9% 13.6% 13.6%
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Mar 14
1,181 1,202 1,155 1,135 1,025 1,016
316 322 319 328 370 363
1,497 1,524 1,474 1,463 1,395 1,379
Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar 14
Net value Impairments
Strong coverage in the context of improving asset quality
indicators…
Strong coverage ratios of credit at risk
Stabilisation of credit at risk Decrease of new NPL entries
514
388
185
1Q12 1Q13 1Q14
-52%
-25%
17% 56% 47%
110% 105% 106%
Mortgage Non mortgage Total
BS impairment Collateral
Evolution of foreclosed assets and coverage
(Million euros)
Coverage 26%
(Million euros)
27% 22% 22% 21% 21%
(March 2014)
€4.3b €5.6b €6.4b €6.4b €6.3b Credit at risk
3
26
186
157 137 129
2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2015E 2017E
...underpinning a gradual normalisation of cost of risk
20 19
40
0.8% 1.4%
2.4%
2005 2006 2007
Cost of risk decreasing assuming the conservative scenario of remaining above the pre-crisis
Macro stabilisation will contribute to the
decrease in the impairment levels
New governance model to further enhance risk
management
The creation of the legacy portfolio, where its
specialised management team is also expected to
contribute to the reduction of the delinquency
level through the decrease of exposure to higher
risk portfolios
Three drivers for lower impairments effort Cost of risk
Consolidated, without Greece (bps)
~100
average: 26
94
208 179
157 147 147
1.9%
-1.3%
-3.2%
-1.4%
1.4% 1.7% 1.7%
2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2015 2017
Cost of risk (bps) GDP growth (%)
Pre-crisis
<100
Source: GDP Growth (Bank of Portugal)
3
27
Agenda
1. Portuguese macroeconomic update
2. Strategic plan
A. Main drivers and targets
B. Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
C. Stronger capital position
D. Portugal: recovery of profitability
E. International presence focused on strong growth markets
F. More comfortable liquidity position
3. Investment case
28
Unique international presence focused on key strategic markets…
Single brand
Millennium
Data as at March 2014
* In accordance with Bank Millennium (Poland)’s Financial Statements
Market share: 4.8% in loans and 5.2% in
deposits
Loans to customers (gross): €10,594m*
Customer funds: €12,435m*
Employees: 5,878
Branches: 435
Poland
Market share: 32.1% in loans and 30.6%
in deposits
Loans to customers (gross): €1,254m
Customer funds: €1,535m
Employees: 2,455
Branches: 159
Mozambique
Market share: 3.5% in loans and 3.4% in
deposits
Loans to customers (gross): €693m
Customer funds: €1,272m
Employees: 1,062
Branches: 82
Angola
All three international
operations are profitable,
self funded and self
sustainable (with capital
for growth)
29
3 24
41 39
53
86 77
81
127
119
158
253
2006 2010 2013
…delivering strong earnings growth
Net income
17.1%
(CAGR)
7.2%
(CAGR)
(Million euros) Split of banking income of peripheral banks * (consolidated, 2013)
International presence of BCP
Source: Annual reports of the banks
* Peripheral banks include banks in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain
51%
49%
B1 B2 B3 B4 BCP B6 B7 B8 B9 B10 B11 B12 B13 B14 B15 B16 B17 B18 B19 B20
International
Domestic
ROE ***
(1Q14)
LTD
(1Q14)
BV
(1Q14)
BCP
stake
Nominal
GDP
growth*
Poland 12% 94% €2.4bn** 65.5% ~6%
Mozambique 22% 78% €0.4bn 66.7% ~14%
Angola 18% 52% €0.3bn 50.1% ~12%
* Source: IMF (average expected annual nominal GDP growth 2014-17)
** Market capitalisation as at 20 June 2014
*** Annualised
30
Poland: market environment provides significant upside
...and Polish banks are valued according to their
profitability estimates
Poland is one of the European countries with the
lowest banking penetration...
* BV/GDP = (Total Deposits + Gross Loans) / Nominal GDP Source: EIU Database
Exploring new market opportunities in the corporate
segment and stronger focus on mid–sized companies
Growing consumer lending segment
Focus on saving products instead of time deposits
474 460 459
315
261 257 246 233 208
154 152 119 111
69
NL IR SW UK SP PT FR DE BEL GR IT CZR PL RO
Business volumes / GDP * (%)
P/TBV 13
ROE 14E Source: FactSet (19 July 2014)
1Q14 2015
ROE 12% 14-15%
C/I 51% <50%
Core Tier I 13.3% >10%
LTD * 94% <100%
Strategic plan
Bank strengths
Main initiatives
Targets
Well distributed branch network
Highly recognized brand and top quality service
Risk management and cost control
Self funded and self sustainable
1
2
4
5
Modern multichannel infrastructure 3
* Net loans / deposits
1.2x
1.4x
1.6x
1.8x
2.0x
2.2x
2.4x
2.6x
2.8x
3.0x
8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
ROE target: 14-15%
Bank
Millennium
(Jun 14)
Bank Millennium (Dec 10)
31
29% 26%
14%
62%
41%
25% 30%
25%
Emerging Europe * Kenya Nigeria Mozambique Angola
2003 2013
Mozambique and Angola: high growth potential driven by sector
underpenetration and high expected GDP growth
Loans / GDP Real GDP growth (2014-2017)
Source: BMI; for Angola: Bank of Angola, IMF
* Includes Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Russia and Ukraine Source: IMF
* Includes Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland and Russia
19% 17% 23% Loan
CAGR
2003-13
Underpenetrated markets expected to
converge to peer levels …
2%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Emerging Europe *
Angola
Kenya
Nigeria
Mozambique
… supported by high expected GDP growth
levels, ahead of most emerging markets peers
Valuation of emerging markets banks
Mozambique and Angola are
underpenetrated banking markets that are
expected to converge to peer levels given
their higher expected GDP growth levels
Valuation of emerging markets banks is
based on the evolution of EPS growth
Source: FactSet (19 June 2014)
Note: Regression includes top listed banks in South Africa, Poland, Saudi Arabia, UAE, China,
Indonesia, Thailand
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
18x
20x
2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%
P/E
2014E
EPS CAGR '13-16E
32
High expected GDP growth based on
extractive industries, coal and natural gas
production (expected to become one of the 10
largest coal exporters in the world and one of
the largest exporters of natural gas to Asia*),
infrastructure investment and credit expansion
Underpenetrated banking system
Mozambique: profitable market leader in a fast growing country
Bank strengths
Main initiatives
Reinforce the competitive positioning in Corporate and
Investment Banking to consolidate market leadership
Create the Prestige segment to support the increasing
number of affluent clients
Focus on innovation, mobile and transactional products
1Q14 2015/17
ROE 22% >20%
C/I 45% <45%
LTD * 78% <90%
Targets
Key highlights
A
B
* Source: Mining Weekly (Mozambique Q2 Mining Report Released) and Frost & Sullivan
Affinity market with strong historical, cultural
and economic ties to Portugal
C
Economic and political stability since the end
of the civil war in 1992
D
Market leader
Largest branch network
High profitability
Self funded and self sustainable
1
2
3
4
Shareholder structure
Strategic plan
67%
22%
11%
BCP (Portugal)
State of Mozambique / Social Security
Others
* Net loans / deposits
33
Angola: maintain high growth gaining market share whilst further
increasing profitability
Bank strengths
Main initiatives
Improve service quality in affluent segments to
increase cross selling and customer acquisition
Develop a network of specialised branches to supply
clients with specific needs: Corporate centers and
Affluent branches
Reevaluate and reinforce the branch expansion
Continue to focus on innovated products
1Q14 2015/17
ROE 18% >20%
C/I 54% <45%
LTD * 52% <75%
Targets
Key highlights
* Source: IMF
** Source: National Bank of Angola
*** Source: Central Intelligence Agency
Modern and innovative infrastructure
Expansion plan to improve penetration
Highly efficient and compliant
Self funded and self sustainable
1
2
3
5
Shareholder structure
Strategic plan
50%
30%
20%
BCP (Portugal)
Sonangol
Others Strong brand recognition 4
High expected GDP growth based on oil
production (3rd largest oil producer in
Africa**), government effort to diversify the
economy (non-oil GDP growth was 11.5% in
2013***) and credit expansion
Underpenetrated banking system A
C
Affinity market with strong historical, cultural
and economic ties to Portugal
D
Economic and political stability since the end
of the civil war in 2002
E
Third largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa
(equivalent to 57% of Portuguese GDP *)
B
* Net loans / deposits
34
Agenda
1. Portuguese macroeconomic update
2. Strategic plan
A. Main drivers and targets
B. Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
C. Stronger capital position
D. Portugal: recovery of profitability
E. International presence focused on strong growth markets
F. More comfortable liquidity position
3. Investment case
35
7
~0
Mar 14 Dec 15 Dec 17
Reduction of the commercial gap is expected to continue, contributing
to the reduction of wholesale and ECB funding needs…
ECB and wholesale markets
Commercial gap expected to decrease, reaching
an LTD of ~100% as a result of:
increase in customer deposits, by partial
conversion of capitalisation products to on
BS funds
controlled growth of net loans in
corporate lending
Lower dependence on ECB funding and
wholesale markets
Commercial gap (net loans – deposits) Net Loans
Deposits -
~100% Loans to deposits ratio
<100% Loans to on BS funds ratio
ECB funding
Wholesale
markets
ECB funding was €9.2bn in March
2014 (with a liquidity buffer of
€10.2bn), being projected to
decrease to close to zero by 2017
Senior debt issue of €500m in
February 2014
Planned debt issue in 2014-17
below 2006-09
-7 56
Mar 14 Dec 15 Dec 17
-1% CAGR
+3% CAGR
49
Mar 14 Dec 15 Dec 17
116%
106%
(Billion euros)
36
5.2 4.9
2.9
5.5
1.1
0.1
2.9
0.3 0.6
1.8
0.4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14 2014 2015 2016 2017 >2017
To repay:
€6.0bn
20
3
15
56
9
49
Refinancing needs of medium-long term debt ***
Reduction of funding needs, benefitting from the continued reduction of the commercial gap which
proceeds at a good pace
Lower short-term refinancing needs than in the past
Already
repaid
(Billion euros)
…and resulting in a sustainable funding structure
Balance sheet structure
17 E Mar 14
Other net assets Net Loans
Equity
MM/WSF
MM/WSF = Money Market and Wholesale Funding
Dec 09
(Billion euros)
8 7
29
75
1
46
76
83
* Includes repurchase of own debt amounting to €0.5bn
** Includes repayment of €1.6bn related to liability management transactions
*** Includes covered bonds, senior and subordinated debt
**
*
~15 ~5
~9
~54
~1
~54
~69
Deposits ECB
ECB funding expected to
decline close to zero by 2017
37
Agenda
1. Portuguese macroeconomic update
2. Strategic plan
A. Main drivers and targets
B. Achievements in Phase I: stronger balance sheet
C. Stronger capital position
D. Portugal: recovery of profitability
E. International presence focused on strong growth markets
F. More comfortable liquidity position
3. Investment case
38
Investment case
Leading private sector market position in Portugal,
benefiting from the domestic economic recovery
Successful ongoing execution of the restructuring plan in
Portugal
Profitable, self-funded international operations in high
growth markets (Poland, Mozambique, Angola)
Stronger capital and liquidity position
1
2
3
4
Unique
position
Strengthening of capital position significantly accelerates the
process of adjustment to sustainable levels of profitability and
shareholder returns
Transaction
39
Appendices
40
Highlights – 1Q14 results
New entries in NPL in Portugal in 1Q14 decreased 52% versus 1Q13, consistent with the target of a
sustained reduction in the cost of risk, but maintaining a high level of provisioning
Core tier I ratio at 13.9% according to BdP criteria, above the 12.1% ratio as of March 2013
Common equity core tier I ratio at 11.9%* according to CRD IV/CRR (phase-in)
Capital adequacy
reinforced and
above minimum
requirements
Contribution of international operations (excluding Greece and Romania) to the consolidated net
income of 48 million euros, an increase of 18.1% versus 1Q13, the best quarterly contribution of the
last two years
Profitability
confirming the
positive trend
Consolidated net income of -41 million euros, versus -152 million euros in 1Q13
Operating costs reduced by 4.3% at the consolidated level and 6.9% in Portugal versus 1Q13
Consistent customer deposits base maintained, with a quarterly increase of 1.2% in deposits in
Portugal
Continuation of the commercial gap improvement: reduction of 3.0 billion euros in the commercial gap
year-on-year, with the loans to deposits ratio (BdP) at 116%, below the 120% level recommended, and
the ratio of loans to BS customer funds at 106%
Liquidity
strengthening
Reduction in ECB funding usage to 9.2 billion euros, with cumulative reimbursement of 2 billion euros
of the 3-year long-term refinancing operation (LTRO)
Progressive improvement in banking income in all geographies, with a growth of 23.0% year-on-
year, driven by the increase in net interest income and commissions
Repayment of 2 billion euros of State Guaranteed debt issues
Issue of 500 million euros senior unsecured 3 year bond in the public market, without support from
the State
* Calculated based on a conservative interpretation of the proposed DTA regulation published on 12 June 2014
41
Reflecting the sale of
Greek subsidiary: -€4bn
Deposits
Liquidity position
Net loans
Commercial gap (net loans – deposits)
-
162% Loans to
deposits ratio
147% Loans to
on BS funds ratio
(Billion euros)
46 46 48 49 49 49
D 09 D 10 D 11 D 12 D 13 M 14
+3
75 74 68 63 57 56
D 09 D 10 D 11 D 12 D 13 M 14
-19
29 28
21
13
8 7
D 09 D 10 D 11 D 12 D 13 M 14
-22
116%
106%
Reflecting the sale of
Greek subsidiary: -€3bn
42
Detail of sovereign debt portfolio as of 31 March 2014
Portugal Poland Mozambique Angola Romania Others Total
Trading book 188 99 75 362
< 1 year 0 11 11
> 1 year and <2 years 14 6 20
> 2 year and <3 years 0 65 11 76
> 3 years 174 17 64 254
AFS book 4,316 934 396 423 51 5 6,125
< 1 year 1,973 70 355 264 34 2,696
> 1 year and <2 years 204 150 2 78 10 5 449
> 2 year and <3 years 190 407 17 39 7 659
> 3 years 1,949 307 22 42 0 2,321
HTM book 1,859 12 50 1,921
< 1 year 72 72
> 1 year and <2 years 7 7
> 2 year and <3 years 137 5 142
> 3 years 1,650 50 1,700
Total 6,363 1,033 396 423 63 130 8,407
< 1 year 2,045 81 355 264 34 2,780
> 1 year and <2 years 218 156 2 78 17 5 476
> 2 year and <3 years 326 472 17 39 12 11 877
> 3 years 3,773 324 22 42 114 4,275
(Million euros)
43
Retail 42%
Institutional 24%
Qualified holdings
34%
Diversified shareholder base, geographically scattered
Shareholder structure
Number of shareholders (thousands)
Qualified participations (>2%)
Geographic distribution
Sonangol 19.4%
Sabadell group 4.3%
EDP group 3.0%
Interoceânico/ALLPAR (Camargo
Corrêa group) 2.6%
Berardo group 2.5%
Alken Fund 2.0%
170.9 182.3 187.2 174.2
Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13
Portugal 51%
Africa 20%
US/UK 6%
Others 23%
(As of 31 March 2014) (As of 31 March 2014)
(As of 31 March 2014)
44
1992: End of 16 years of civil war between the ruling party
(FRELIMO) and the Rhodesian & South African funded
Mozambique Resistance Movement (RENAMO)
2004: Guebuza (FRELIMO) is elected as president
with 64% (160/250 parliament seats) as Chissano
steps down after 18 yrs
Late 2014: Next presidential,
government and provincial
elections
1999: Joaquim Chissano (FRELIMO) is
reelected with 52.3% (133/250
parliament seats)
Mozambique: fact sheet
1975: Independence of Mozambique
following almost five centuries as a
Portuguese colony
1975 2013/14… 1990 1995 2000 2005
1994: First multi-party elections held, won by
Joaquim Chissano (FRELIMO)
2006: World Bank cancels most of Mozambique's debt
under a plan promoted by the G8 nations
2009: Guebuza (FRELIMO) is
reelected with 75% (191/250
parliament seats)
Maputo Matola
Beira
Nampula Tete
Nacala
Pemba
Country fact sheet
eet 2013E
Population (million) 22.9
Area (thousand km) 800
Capital Maputo
Official language Portuguese
Other languages Swahili, Makhuwa, Sena
Currency Metical (MZN)
Gini index 45.7 (Medium)
Political regime Presidential Republic
Sovereign rating - FC LT
Debt
Moody's B1, Stable; Fitch
B+, Stable; S&P B+,
Negative
Key economic indicators
Source: IMF and World Bank
Source: IMF and World Bank
2013E 2018F
GDP (US$ bn) 14.7 25.0
Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 7.1 8.0
GDP per capita (US$,current) 640.4 990.1
Inflation 5.5% 5.6%
Investment (% GDP) 48.7 54.9
Public Debt (% GDP) 45.7 51.5
45
10
5
15
8
10
16
7
12
12
15
49
Millennium bim is market leader in Mozambique with a 33%
market share, over 1.2 million clients, 2,455 employees, and
159 branches with a countrywide coverage
18+ years
1,236,400 clients
159 branches
2,455 employees
Deposits market share (Dec 13) Loans market share (Dec 13)
Cabo Delgado
Niassa
Nampula
Zambézia
Tete
Sofala
Manica
Inhambane
Gaza
Mpt província
Branches
Shareholder structure
FDC 1.1%
EMOSE 4.2%
State of Mozambique 17.1%
Social Security 5.0%
Other Employees 6.0%
BCP (Portugal) 66.7%
6%
17%
29%
32%
Barcl ays
Standard bank
BCI
Mi l l enni um bim
6%
12%
28%
33%
Barcl ays
Standard bank
BCI
Mi l l enni um bim
Millennium bim: market leadership position along the years
Mpt Cidade
Bank 2
Bank 3
Bank 4
Bank 2
Bank 3
Bank 4
46
1,209
1,236
Mar 13 Mar 14
2,280
2,307
Mar 13 Mar 14
151
159
Mar 13 Mar 14
Millennium bim: highlights 1Q14
19.1 20.2
1Q13 1Q14
1,346
1,535
Mar 13 Mar 14
1,014
1,254
Mar 13 Mar 14
ROE
Customer funds
Loans to customers (gross)
Customers
Employees *
Net income
Branches
22% 25%
+14.1%
+23.7%
+2.2% (million euros)
(million euros)
(thousand) (million euros)
+1.2% +5.3%
* Excludes SIM’s employees (insurance company)
Excludes FX effect. €/Metical used rates: Income statement 42.90416667; Balance sheet 42.9550
47
After independence in November 1975, Angola faced a
devastating civil war which lasted several decades and claimed
millions of lives and produced many refugees
2002: Jonas Savimbi, the leader of UNITA, was
killed in combat with government troops, civil
war ends
2010: new constitution
Angola: fact sheet
1975: Independence of Angola following
almost five centuries as a Portuguese
colony
1975 2013/14… 1990 1995 2000 2010
The FNLA, MPLA and UNITA were fighting each other and
the country was well on its way to being divided into
zones controlled by rival armed political groups
2008: first elections after conflicts were organized
Source: IMF and World Bank
Country fact sheet Key economic indicators
2013E
Population (million) 20.8
Area (thousand km) 1,246
Capital Luanda
Official language Portuguese
Other languages Kimbundo, Kikongo
Currency Kwanza (AOA)
Gini index 42.7 (Medium)
Political regime Presidential Republic
Sovereign rating - FC LT
Debt
Moody's Ba3, Positive;
Fitch BB-, Stable; S&P
BB-, Stable
Source: IMF and World Bank
2013E 2018F
GDP (US$ bn) 115.3 167.8
Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 5.2 6.6
GDP per capita (US$,current) 5,706 6,951
Inflation 9.2% 6.5%
Investment (% GDP) 14.4 12.3
Public Debt (% GDP) 26.6 32.5
48
2.9% 3.2% 3.5%
Dec 12 Dec 13 Mar 14
Millennium Angola: widespread in every province and in rapid growth
82 Mass-market branches
7 Prestige branches
6 Corporate Centers
1,062 Employees
311,000 Customers
March 2014
Deposits
Loans
2.8%
3.4% 3.4%
Shareholder structure
Globalpactum 5.0%
Sonangol 29.9%
BPA 15.0%
BCP (Portugal) 50.1%
Market share of Millennium Angola
49
Millennium Angola: highlights 1Q14
Excludes FX effect. €/Kwanza used rates: Income statement 133.29333333; Balance sheet 134.5900
249
311
Mar 13 Mar 14
1,029
1,062
Mar 13 Mar 14
76 82
Mar 13 Mar 14
6.2
11.2
1Q13 1Q14
767
1,272
Mar 13 Mar 14
494
693
Mar 13 Mar 14
ROE
Customer funds
Loans to customers (gross)
Customers
Employees
Net income
Branches
18% 12%
+65.9%
+40.3%
+25.0%
(million euros)
(million euros)
(thousand) (million euros)
+3.2% +7.9%
50
Portugal Poland Mozambique Angola
Banco Comercial Português. S.A., a public company (sociedade aberta) having its registered office at Praça D. João I, 28, Oporto, registered at the
Commercial Registry of Oporto, with the single commercial and tax identification number 501 525 882 and the share capital of EUR 1.645.000.000
Investor Relations Division
Rui Coimbra, Head of Investor Relations
Investor Relations Reporting and Ratings
João Godinho Duarte, CFA Luís Morais
Paula Dantas Henriques Lina Fernandes
Tl: +351 21 1131 084 Tl: + 351 21 1131 337
Email: [email protected]