rintaro tamaki oecd - asia business week dublin
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“Asia’s Economic Outlook - European Opportunities” Rintaro Tamaki, Deputy Secretary-General & Chief Economist, OECD speaking on June 6 at the Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table during Asia Business Week Dublin 2014TRANSCRIPT
ASIA BUSINESS WEEK DUBLINFourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table
6 June 2014
What does the economic outlook in Asia mean for European economies?
Rintaro Tamaki Deputy Secretary-General & Acting Chief Economist, OECD
Kindly sponsored by:
Paris, 6 May 2014
Rintaro Tamaki Deputy Secretary-General and Acting Chief Economist
WHAT DOES THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN ASIA MEAN FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIES?
Asia Business Week, Dublin - 6 June 2014
3
Global growth is rebounding
Real GDP growthPer cent
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
OECD
BRIICS
World
44
Trade is picking up in advanced economies
Contribution to world trade growth, goods and services, %
2012 2013 2014 20150
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Euro areaOther OECDJapanChinaOther emerging Asia
Average growth of world trade (1990-2007)
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
5
Contrasting performances
Real GDP growthPer cent
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12JapanKoreaChinaOther Asian EMEs
Asian economiesEuropean economies
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12GermanyFranceItalyIrelandEuro area
6
The challenges for Europe:High unemployment and credit contraction
Unemployment ratePer cent
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
Bank credit to non-financial private corporations
Percentage change1
-12
-6
0
6
-12
-6
0
6
March 2012 - March 2013
March 2013 - March 2014
Note: February to February for Italy.1. Adjusted for loan sales and securitisation.Source: ECB; Bank of Italy.
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30GermanyFranceItalySpainPortugal
7
The challenges for Europe: Deflation risks
Euro area headline inflation1
Per cent
1. Year-on-year change of harmonised index of consumer prices.
2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
8
The challenges in emerging Asia: Increased financial vulnerabilities
Credit growth to the private sector1
Per cent
1. Average annual growth between end-December 2006 and end-September 2013.
Selected shadow banking products in ChinaPer cent of GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
Average credit growth for US, euro area, Ja-pan
Source: BIS; OECD calculations.
Source: CBRC; Kwan (2014); National Bureau of Statistics of China; and China Trustee Association.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
Wealth management products Trust assets
9
The challenges in Japan: Deflation and fiscal sustainability
Core inflation1
Per centGross government debt
Per cent of GDP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015190
200
210
220
230
240
190
200
210
220
230
240
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.1. Excluding food and energy.
2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Initiation of “Q-squared” easing by BoJ
VAT increase
10
Boost potential growth is a priority
.
Potential output growthPer cent
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
China India Indonesia Korea Japan-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2014 2030 2060