rio de janeiro, august 25, 2005 - vale...rio de janeiro, august 25, 2005. 2 disclaimerdisclaimer...
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Companhia Vale do Rio Doce
Reaping the fruits of the long cycle
Rio de Janeiro, August 25, 2005
2
DisclaimerDisclaimer
”This presentation may contain statements that express management’s expectations about future events or results rather than historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements, and CVRD cannot give assurance that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors: relating to the Brazilian economy and securities markets, which exhibit volatility and can be adversely affected by developments in other countries; relating to the iron ore business and its dependence on the global steel industry, which is cyclical in nature; and relating to the highly competitive industries in which CVRD operates. For additional information on factors that could cause CVRD’s actual results to differ from expectations reflected in forward-looking statements, please see CVRD’s reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”
3
CVRD launches dividend reinvestment planCVRD launches dividend reinvestment plan
Automatic purchase of CVRD shares with
dividends received by shareholders.
Mechanism designed for retail investors.
Stimulates savings at low costs.
Purchase of small number of shares with
transaction costs equivalent of large operations.
4
AgendaAgenda
Riding high
Market fundamentals strengthen
5
Riding highRiding high
6
CVRD delivered the best quarterly results of its history CVRD delivered the best quarterly results of its history
YoY
Iron ore production 60.7 Mt 17.8%
Iron ore & pellets sales 62.4 Mt 11.8%
Gross revenues US$ 3.7 billion 83.0%
Adjusted EBIT US$ 1.8 billion 112.9%
Adjusted EBITDA US$ 2.0 billion 109.4%
Net earnings US$ 1.6 billion 223.4%
records
7
ª Proforma data for 2002 and 2003. It includes Caemi data to facilitate comparison.
62.459.861.860.555.8
53.055.7
53.151.450.3
11.8%14.7%
5.1%
2.6%5.1% 5.2%
8.6%
14.0%
11.0%12.9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05
mill
ion t
ons
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
% y
oy g
row
th
São Luís
Carajás70 Mtpy
CapãoXavier
A strong global demand and investment in capacity expansion allowed CVRD to achieve a new all-time high in iron ore & pellets shipments
A strong global demand and investment in capacity expansion allowed CVRD to achieve a new all-time high in iron ore & pellets shipments
FábricaNova
8
The flip side of the long cycle: cost pressures. However, price pressures on cost are easingThe flip side of the long cycle: cost pressures. However, price pressures on cost are easing
¹ COGS + SG&A² US$ 625 million³ US$ 283 million
41.3%
3.7%
13.5%14.0%
27.5%
33.7%
10.7%
35.2%
0.0%
20.4%
BRL appreciation Volumes Iron ore purchases Depreciation Prices
2T05 vs 2T04² 2T05 vs 1T05³
Contribution to cost increase¹
9
Revenue growth was the main driver of yoyadjusted EBITDA increaseRevenue growth was the main driver of yoyadjusted EBITDA increase
2,033
US$ million
2Q04 2Q05
BRLappreciationvolumes
prices
others
971
173 66(44)
dividends received
57
983 depreciation and
amortization
(173)
(1)(1)
10
5.034
3.9723.7223.289
2.912
1.515 1.587 1.686 1.780 1.825 1.890 2.000 2.1302.431
1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05
Thirteen consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA growth
Thirteen consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA growth
LTM adjusted EBITDAUS$ billion
Others1.1%
Logistics6.4%
Non ferrous minerals
2.2%
Aluminum7.3%
Ferrous minerals83.0%
2Q05 adjusted EBITDAUS$ 2.033 billion
11
We believe CVRD cash generation will be more diversified in the futureWe believe CVRD cash generation will be more diversified in the future
Ferrous minerals
65%
Aluminum13%
Non ferrous minerals
10%
Logistics9%
Coal3%
EBITDA composition estimated for 2010EBITDA composition estimated for 2010
12
Starting to benefit from the investment grade ratingStarting to benefit from the investment grade rating
75
100
125
150
175
07-J
ul10
-Jul
13-J
ul16
-Jul
19-J
ul22
-Jul
25-J
ul28
-Jul
31-J
ul03
-Ago
06-A
go09
-Ago
12-A
go15
-Ago
18-A
gosp
reads
in b
asi
s poin
ts
CVRD 2013 CVRD 2034¹
Source: JP Morgan ¹ Spreads between the Brazilian sovereign debt and bonds issued by CVRD with
maturity in 2013 and 2034.
8-Jul => rating announcement
97 bp
172 bp
110 bp151 bp
Moody’s Baa3
DBRS BBB low
13
Green light for VermelhoGreen light for Vermelho
R&DUS$ 71 million
ProjectsUS$ 1,018
millionStay-in-businessUS$ 303 million
1H05 Capex – US$ 1.4 billion
Vermelho nickel projectCapex: US$ 1.2 billionStart up: 4Q08Capacity: 46,000 tpy nickel
2,800 tpy cobaltOpex: US$ 1.67/lb Ni
14
The new value creation platform: infrastructure improvementThe new value creation platform: infrastructure improvement
Ponta da MadeiraFourth shiploader and third car dumper.
AimorésFull operation in October.
85 85 MtpyMtpy capacitycapacitymore flexibilitymore flexibility
Meeting the Southern Meeting the Southern System energy needsSystem energy needs
15
The new value creation platform: production capacity expansionThe new value creation platform: production capacity expansion
Potash- Taquari–Vassouras: ramp up to increase the mine to 850,000 tpy.
Alumina- Alunorte stages 4&5: additional capacity of 1.8 Mtpy, ramp up will start in 1Q06.
710,000 t in 2005 and 850,000 t in 2006 710,000 t in 2005 and 850,000 t in 2006
3.8 Mt in 2006 and 4.3 Mt in 2007 3.8 Mt in 2006 and 4.3 Mt in 2007
16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-98 Aug-98 Mar-99 Oct-99 May-00 Dec-00 Jul-01 Feb-02 Sep-02 Apr-03 Nov-03 Jun-04 Jan-05 Aug-05
US$
per
ton
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
%
Alumina spot prices % of LME 3 month aluminum price
CVRD alumina expansion, a low cost project in a high price environment: global alumina shortage is not expected to be corrected in 2006
CVRD alumina expansion, a low cost project in a high price environment: global alumina shortage is not expected to be corrected in 2006
Sources: Metal Bulletin, LME and Bloomberg
17
Iron ore capacity expansion, supported by LT contracts, will allow CVRD production to reach 275 Mt in 2007
Iron ore capacity expansion, supported by LT contracts, will allow CVRD production to reach 275 Mt in 2007
2004 2007E
Carajás
BrucutuFábricaNova
FazendãoFábrica Itabira
30211
2415
11 5 3275
Estimated production increasemillion tons
DepletionRamp up
(10)(14)
1H05 output: 112.1 Mt
18
38.2
35.2
30.131.4
24.9
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005¹
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
BRL/USD
CVRD ROIC remains high, despite the strong BRL appreciationCVRD ROIC remains high, despite the strong BRL appreciation
ROIC%
¹ LTM ended at June 30, 2005
19
Shaping the future – CVRD is starting to develop a global portfolio of mineral exploration projectsShaping the future – CVRD is starting to develop a global portfolio of mineral exploration projects
Bayóvarphosphates²
Australia
Peru
Francevillemanganese²
Belvedere coal²
Gabon
Rio Colorado potash¹
Argentina
Moatize coal³
Mozambique
Piauí – SJ Piauí nickel¹
Carajás – Cristalino copper³
Pará – bauxite¹
Pará – copper¹
Goiás – Agua Branca nickel¹
Minas Gerais – iron ore³
Brazil
legend
1 - conceptual study
2 - pre-feasibility study
3 - feasibility study
20
Market fundamentals strengthenMarket fundamentals strengthen
21
40
45
50
55
60
65
2002 2003 2004 2005
index
USA JapanEuroland Global
Leading indicators are signaling a synchronized acceleration of global IP growth, supporting a strong demand for mineral products
Leading indicators are signaling a synchronized acceleration of global IP growth, supporting a strong demand for mineral products
Sources: JPMorgan and ISM
manufacturing PMIs
22
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
mill
ion t
ons
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
YoY %
Apparent steel consumption
Fixed asset investments (FAI)
Chinese GDP is growing above 9% for the eighth consecutive quarter. FAI high growth anticipates domestic steel consumption to remain stronger forlonger
Chinese GDP is growing above 9% for the eighth consecutive quarter. FAI high growth anticipates domestic steel consumption to remain stronger forlonger
23
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar-0
4Ap
r-04
May-0
4Ju
n-04
Jul-0
4Au
g-04
Sep-
04Oct
-04
Nov-
04Dec
-04
Jan-
05Fe
b-05
Mar-0
5Ap
r-05
May-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5
mill
ion t
ons
net imports
Chinese steel exports are loosing strength, reflecting the internal consumption increaseChinese steel exports are loosing strength, reflecting the internal consumption increase
net imports = imports - exports
net exports
24
Iron ore spot prices continue to stay above benchmark prices. Lower freight rates are offsetting the effect of iron ore price increases for 2005
Iron ore spot prices continue to stay above benchmark prices. Lower freight rates are offsetting the effect of iron ore price increases for 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
June/04 July/04 Aug/04 Sept/04 Oct/04 Nov/04 Dec/04 Jan/05 Feb/05 March/05 Apr/05 May/05 Jun/05 Jul-05
US
$/to
n
SSF C&F Beilun prices
Hebei spot prices
$52.7 $18.4
$30.5 $26.0
$20.5
Sources: CVRD, Clarksons and mysteel.com
25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E
mill
ion
DW
T
-5%
-3%
0%
3%
5%
8%
10%
13%
15%
18%
20%
Capesize bulkcarrier fleet YoY % chg
The downturn trend in freight rates is mainly determined by the expansion of the global shipping fleet
The downturn trend in freight rates is mainly determined by the expansion of the global shipping fleet
CAGR 1996 – 2003 = 3.7%CAGR 2003 – 2007E = 10.2%
Source: Clarksons
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-02 Abr-02 Jul-02 Out-02 Jan-03 Abr-03 Jul-03 Out-03 Jan-04 Abr-04 Jul-04 Out-04 Jan-05 Abr-05 Jul-05
mill
ion t
ons
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Chinese iron ore imports YoY % chg
Chinese iron ore imports are growing at a very fast paceChinese iron ore imports are growing at a very fast pace
Source: CEIC
Jan/Jul 2005 = 150.0 Mt (+29.4%)
27
The long term outlook: steel consumption in China has a long way to grow before peakingThe long term outlook: steel consumption in China has a long way to grow before peaking
Taiwan1993
Korea2003
Japan1973
Germany1974
USA1973
France1973
UK1970
China2004
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 5 10 15 20 25Per capita income²
000' US$
Kg /
capita¹
¹ per capita steel consumption² PPPSources: IISI, World Bank and CVRD
Steel consumption peaks and incomes
28
Bulk ferroalloy prices - Europe
Source: CRU
The upward trend in Mn alloys prices was reversed due to excess capacity buildup The upward trend in Mn alloys prices was reversed due to excess capacity buildup
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
2003 2004 2005
US
$/to
n
MCFeMn
HCFeMn
SiFeMn
29
10,382 9,077
8,132 7,398
2001 2002 2003 2004
Global Mn alloys output overreacted to demand stimulus. 60% of the increase between 2001 and 2004 was due to China. CVRD is shutting down temporarily one third of its capacity
Global Mn alloys output overreacted to demand stimulus. 60% of the increase between 2001 and 2004 was due to China. CVRD is shutting down temporarily one third of its capacity
Global Mn alloys productionin ‘000 tonsCAGR 12%
Source: International Manganese Institute
30
Copper prices are tracking higher due to a strong Chinese demand, concentrate bottlenecks and all-time low inventories
Copper prices are tracking higher due to a strong Chinese demand, concentrate bottlenecks and all-time low inventories
Sources: LME, Comex, SFE and Bloomberg
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
'00
0 o
f to
ns
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
3000
3400
3800
US
D/to
n
Total stocks - LME, Comex and SHFE
Copper prices LME-3 month
31
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jul-99 Apr-00 Jan-01 Oct-01 Jul-02 Apr-03 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05
'00
0 o
f to
ns
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
$ /
to
n
Inventories (LME + Comex + SHFE) Aluminum prices LME 3 month
Global IP growth acceleration and high power costs in the US and Europe may keep aluminum prices at relatively high levels
Global IP growth acceleration and high power costs in the US and Europe may keep aluminum prices at relatively high levels
Sources: LME, Comex and Bloomberg
33
AppendixAppendixReconciliation of non-GAAP information and comparable GAAP information
(1) adjusted EBITDA (US$ million)
Reconciliation between adjusted EBITDA vs. operating cash flow
1Q05 2Q052Q04
Operating cash flow 700 431 1,426
Income tax 41 160 330
Monetary and foreign exchange losses (46) (25) (6)
Financial expenses 60 65 (14)
Net working capital 221 341 153
Unrealized losses with derivatives 22 5 85
Others (27) 16 59
adjusted EBITDA 971 993 2,033