risk assessment and reduction
TRANSCRIPT
Prof. David AlexanderProf. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence, ItalyUniversity of Florence, ItalyProf. David AlexanderProf. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence, ItalyUniversity of Florence, Italy
RISKRISKassessment and reductionassessment and reduction
RISKRISKassessment and reductionassessment and reduction
Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.In the second half of the 20th centurythe world experienced increases of:
• 250% in the number of recorded disasters
• 500% in number of disasters with victims
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Economic losses in disasters
0
20
40
60
80
100
U.S
$ bi
llion
152 bn US$
• 500% in the number of affected people
• 1640% in the cost of insured damage.
• 1500% in the total cost of disasters
Then (1950s) Now (2009)
Under-reporting of disasters
More complete recording
Counting only direct effects
Quantifying indirect effects
Smaller population of hazardous places
Larger population, greater densities
Less inequality Growing inequality andmarginalisation
Less fixed capital at risk
Relentless accumulation of fixed capital
Simpler socio-economic networks
More complex networks
Imp
act
Emergencyisolation
During the
emergency
Em
erg
ency
resp
onse
Before theimpact
Pre
para
tions
and w
arn
ing
After th
e
impact P
erio
d o
f
quie
scen
ce
Riskm
itigationRecovery
and
reco
nstru
ctio
n
The Phases of DisasterThe Phases of DisasterThe Phases of DisasterThe Phases of Disaster
DisasterDisasterriskriskreductionreduction
DisasterDisasterriskriskreductionreduction
CivilCivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement
CivilCivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
EmergencyEmergencypreparednesspreparedness
EmergencyEmergencypreparednesspreparedness
Risk assessmentRisk assessmentRisk assessmentRisk assessment
Human activity involves risk and benefitHuman activity involves risk and benefit
A working definition of safety:"a thing is safe if its risks
are judged to be acceptable."
A working definition of safety:"a thing is safe if its risks
are judged to be acceptable."
A definition of risk for human societies:"the probability that a certain number
of people will die in a given impactduring a given interval of time."
A definition of risk for human societies:"the probability that a certain number
of people will die in a given impactduring a given interval of time."
The components of risk
Physical disaster
Magnitude
Frequency
Duration
Human vulnerability
Exposition
Location of hazard
Environment
Resistance
Lifestyle and earnings
Health
Resilience
Adjustments
Risk reduction activities
Preparations for disaster
After Ian Davis (2005)After Ian Davis (2005)
Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Cyclone Tornado Snow avalanche Flood Drought Forest fire Transportation crash Industrial explosion Radioactive contamination Water pollution episode Riot Food adulteration Smoking Mountain climbingV
olu
nta
ry
I
nvolu
nta
ry Inte
nse D
iffu
se
Natural Anthropogenic
HazardHazardHazardHazard
x x VulnerabilityVulnerability x x VulnerabilityVulnerability
= = RiskRisk= = RiskRisk
Release rateRelease rateDose rateDose rateExposureExposure
Release rateRelease rateDose rateDose rateExposureExposure
ImpactImpactImpactImpact
ResponseResponseResponseResponse
A person who spends five minutes twiceA person who spends five minutes twicea day crossing a bridge that is at risk ofa day crossing a bridge that is at risk of
collapse is collapse is exposed exposed to that risk forto that risk for10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week..
A person who spends five minutes twiceA person who spends five minutes twicea day crossing a bridge that is at risk ofa day crossing a bridge that is at risk of
collapse is collapse is exposed exposed to that risk forto that risk for10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week..
• under threatunder threat for a given period of time for a given period of time• under threatunder threat for a given period of time for a given period of time
• at riskat risk to a given extent of to a given extent of possible losspossible loss
• at riskat risk to a given extent of to a given extent of possible losspossible loss
Different definitions of Different definitions of exposureexposure::Different definitions of Different definitions of exposureexposure::
Rt = E•Rs = E (H•V)Rt = E•Rs = E (H•V)RRtt = = total risktotal riskRRtt = = total risktotal risk
EE = elements at risk (population, built = elements at risk (population, built environment, economic activities)environment, economic activities)EE = elements at risk (population, built = elements at risk (population, built environment, economic activities)environment, economic activities)
RRss = = (H(H••V)V) = specific risk= specific riskRRss = = (H(H••V)V) = specific risk= specific risk
HH = hazard = hazardHH = hazard = hazard
VV = vulnerability = vulnerabilityVV = vulnerability = vulnerability
RELEASERATE
DOSERATE
EXPOSURE
An asset is notvulnerable unless
it is threatenedby something
A hazard is nothazardous unlessit threatenssomething
COPING,CAPACITY,
CAPABILITY,RESILIENCE
RISKRISKHAZARD VULNER-
ABILITY
ELEM
EN
TS
AT
ELEM
EN
TS
AT
RIS
KR
ISK
Mag
nit
ud
e
Fre
qu
en
cy
Logarithm ofreturn period
Magnitude
What does the magnitude-frequencyrule mean in real-life situations?
Vertical scales:Hazard: probability
of occurrenceVulnerability:
potential damageRisk: value of
probable costsand losses
Vertical scales:Hazard: probability
of occurrenceVulnerability:
potential damageRisk: value of
probable costsand losses
Fat-tailed distributionsof hazard: big events may
be more likely thanprobability theory suggests
Fat-tailed distributionsof hazard: big events may
be more likely thanprobability theory suggests
Haza
rd,
vu
lnera
bilit
y &
ris
k levels
Haza
rd,
vu
lnera
bilit
y &
ris
k levels
The relationship between hazardand vulnerability is non-linear
Intolerable riskand vulnerability
Tolerable riskand vulnerability
VULNERABILITY
RIS
K
Risk/vulnerability curve
Dis
aste
r th
res
ho
ld
Society sets
a level of risk
toleration
LowLow Hazard Hazard HighHigh
environment goods lifeenvironment goods life
Hig
hH
igh
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Low
Low
cert
ain
ty
zero
cert
ain
ty
zero
high ri
sk
high ri
sk
mediu
m ri
sk
mediu
m ri
sklo
w risk
low ri
sk
In risk assessmentprobability and
consequence arenon-linearly related.
Society places arbitrarytolerance levels upon risk
Cost of risk reduction
Ris
k
Arbitrarytolerance
levelsCOST/RISK=1
Nu
mb
er
of
casu
alt
ies
Nu
mb
er
of
casu
alt
ies
Cost of retrofittinga building
Cost of retrofittinga building
unreinforcedunreinforced
completelyreinforced
completelyreinforced
completelyreinforced
completelyreinforced
largelyunreinforced
largelyunreinforced
Cost of retrofittinga building
Cost of retrofittinga building
Cost
per
life
saved
Cost
per
life
saved
The example of seismic retrofittingThe example of seismic retrofittingThe example of seismic retrofittingThe example of seismic retrofitting
Perceived risk is the assessment ofhazard made subjectively by individualsPerceived risk is the assessment ofhazard made subjectively by individuals
Risk aversionRisk aversion::• intolerance of a risk that isintolerance of a risk that is perceived to be unacceptably highperceived to be unacceptably high• desire to reduce it to negligible levelsdesire to reduce it to negligible levels..
Risk aversionRisk aversion::• intolerance of a risk that isintolerance of a risk that is perceived to be unacceptably highperceived to be unacceptably high• desire to reduce it to negligible levelsdesire to reduce it to negligible levels..
Objective risk can be calculated from statistical data on past events.Objective risk can be calculated from statistical data on past events.
Not all risks can be measured.Not all risks can be measured.Not all risks can be measured.Not all risks can be measured.
Voluntary -- Involuntary
ChronicChronic ---- CatastrophicCatastrophic
Common (tolerated)
-- Exceptional (dreaded)
InjuriousInjurious ---- FatalFatal
Known to those who are exposed
-- Unknown to those who are exposed
Known to Known to sciencescience
---- Unknown to Unknown to sciencescience
Can be mitigated or
controlled
-- Cannot be mitigated or controlled
OldOld ---- NewNew
A risk classificationA risk classificationA risk classificationA risk classification
HOW PEOPLEHOW PEOPLEPERCEIVE RISKPERCEIVE RISK
ABILITY TOABILITY TOPERCEIVE RISKPERCEIVE RISK
EXPERIENCEEXPERIENCEWITH RISKWITH RISK
PROPENSITYPROPENSITYTO DENY RISKTO DENY RISK
ACCESS TOACCESS TOINFORMATIONINFORMATION
ABILITY TOABILITY TOREDUCE RISK:REDUCE RISK:• money money • expertise expertise • knowledgeknowledge• resources resources
WHETHERWHETHERRISK HASRISK HAS
BEEN ABATEDBEEN ABATED
PEOPLE'S IDEASPEOPLE'S IDEASABOUT POSSIBLEABOUT POSSIBLE
DAMAGE AND LOSSDAMAGE AND LOSS
John Adams's "risk thermostat"John Adams's "risk thermostat"John Adams's "risk thermostat"John Adams's "risk thermostat"
BalancingbehaviourBalancingbehaviour
"Accidents""Accidents"Perceiveddanger
Perceiveddanger
RewardsRewardsPropensity totake risks
Propensity totake risks
Cultural filterCultural filterCultural filterCultural filter
Cultural filterCultural filterCultural filterCultural filter
Filter
PerceptionPerception
CultureCulture
DecisionDecision
ActionAction
ResultResult
PositivePositive NegativeNegative
RiskRisk
AccurateAccurate InaccurateInaccurate
Vulnerability: the mainVulnerability: the maincomponent of riskcomponent of risk
Vulnerability: the mainVulnerability: the maincomponent of riskcomponent of risk
Vulnerability is...Vulnerability is...Vulnerability is...Vulnerability is...
• the actual or potential the actual or potential degree of lossdegree of loss resulting from a particular hazard orresulting from a particular hazard or set of hazards of a given magnitudeset of hazards of a given magnitude
• the actual or potential the actual or potential degree of lossdegree of loss resulting from a particular hazard orresulting from a particular hazard or set of hazards of a given magnitudeset of hazards of a given magnitude
• the potential for the potential for harmharm• the potential for the potential for harmharm
• something that is something that is constructed sociallyconstructed socially• something that is something that is constructed sociallyconstructed socially
• the inverse of the inverse of capabilitycapability (coping, (coping, resilienceresilience))..
• the inverse of the inverse of capabilitycapability (coping, (coping, resilienceresilience))..
Vulnerability management
Disaster managementDisaster managementDisaster managementDisaster management
Risk managementRisk managementRisk managementRisk management
Crisis managementCrisis managementCrisis managementCrisis management
Emergency managementEmergency managementEmergency managementEmergency management
HypotheticalHypothetical
ConcreteConcrete ConcentratedConcentrated
DiffuseDiffuse
Total: life isTotal: life isgenerallygenerallyprecariousprecarious
Total: life isTotal: life isgenerallygenerallyprecariousprecarious
Residual: caused byResidual: caused bylack of modernisationlack of modernisationResidual: caused byResidual: caused by
lack of modernisationlack of modernisation
NewlyNewlygenerated:generated:caused bycaused bychanges inchanges incircumstancescircumstances
NewlyNewlygenerated:generated:caused bycaused bychanges inchanges incircumstancescircumstances
Delinquent:Delinquent:caused bycaused bycorruption,corruption,negligence,negligence,etc.etc.
Delinquent:Delinquent:caused bycaused bycorruption,corruption,negligence,negligence,etc.etc.
Economic:Economic:people lackpeople lackadequateadequateoccupationoccupation
Economic:Economic:people lackpeople lackadequateadequateoccupationoccupation
Technological,Technological,technocratic:technocratic:caused bycaused bythe riskinessthe riskinessof technologyof technology
Technological,Technological,technocratic:technocratic:caused bycaused bythe riskinessthe riskinessof technologyof technology
A model of vulnerability typesA model of vulnerability typesA model of vulnerability typesA model of vulnerability types
VulnerabilityVulnerability
Primary• cause and
effect
Secondary• interaction of
causes• coincidences
Complex•
complicated
interactions
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
Total vulnerabilityequals
Risk amplification processesminus
Risk mitigation measuresplus or minus
Risk perception factors
Total vulnerabilityequals
Risk amplification processesminus
Risk mitigation measuresplus or minus
Risk perception factors
Human culturesHuman culturesconstraints,constraints,
opportunitiesopportunities
Human culturesHuman culturesconstraints,constraints,
opportunitiesopportunities
HistoryHistorysingle andsingle andcumulativecumulativeimpact of pastimpact of pastdisastersdisasters
HistoryHistorysingle andsingle andcumulativecumulativeimpact of pastimpact of pastdisastersdisasters
Causes of disasterCauses of disasternatural geophysical,natural geophysical,technological, socialtechnological, social
Causes of disasterCauses of disasternatural geophysical,natural geophysical,technological, socialtechnological, social
AdaptationAdaptationto riskto risk
IMPACTSIMPACTSIMPACTSIMPACTS
Large disasterLarge disasterLarge disasterLarge disaster
ExpenditureExpenditureExpenditureExpenditureComplacencyComplacencyComplacencyComplacency
Risk-expenditure cycleRisk-expenditure cycleRisk-expenditure cycleRisk-expenditure cycle
Deaths, injuries,Deaths, injuries,damage, disruption,damage, disruption,hardshiphardship
Deaths, injuries,Deaths, injuries,damage, disruption,damage, disruption,hardshiphardship
ReviewReviewReviewReview
Reduced riskReduced riskReduced riskReduced riskNo disasterNo disasterNo disasterNo disaster
ReducedReducedexpenditureexpenditure
ReducedReducedexpenditureexpenditure
Increased riskIncreased riskIncreased riskIncreased risk
DisasterDisaster DisasterDisaster
Public Public outcryoutcry Public Public outcryoutcry RhetoricRhetoricRhetoricRhetoric
LogicLogicLogicLogic
LawsLawsLawsLaws
Safety Safety cultureculture Safety Safety cultureculture
The evolution ofThe evolution ofa safety culturea safety cultureThe evolution ofThe evolution ofa safety culturea safety culture
What exactly is resilience?What exactly is resilience?What exactly is resilience?What exactly is resilience?
Vulnerability = 1 / resilienceVulnerability = 1 / resilienceVulnerability = 1 / resilienceVulnerability = 1 / resilience
Resilience:Resilience: mechanisms for avoiding mechanisms for avoidingimpacts or absorbing them by copingimpacts or absorbing them by copingResilience:Resilience: mechanisms for avoiding mechanisms for avoidingimpacts or absorbing them by copingimpacts or absorbing them by coping
Coping strategies:Coping strategies:• indigenousindigenous• importedimported
Coping strategies:Coping strategies:• indigenousindigenous• importedimported
OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation ResourcesResourcesResourcesResources
Self-organisationSelf-organisationSelf-organisationSelf-organisation
ImposedImposedorganisationorganisationImposedImposedorganisationorganisation
VolunteerismVolunteerismVolunteerismVolunteerism
Community disaster planningCommunity disaster planningCommunity disaster planningCommunity disaster planning
Laws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directivesLaws, protocols, directives
Standards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelinesStandards, norms, guidelines
CommunityCommunityresourcesresources
CommunityCommunityresourcesresources
GovernmentalGovernmentalresourcesresources
GovernmentalGovernmentalresourcesresources
DonationsDonationsDonationsDonations
International resourcesInternational resourcesInternational resourcesInternational resources
The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-
• robustnessrobustness: resist stress: resist stress without loss of functionwithout loss of function
• robustnessrobustness: resist stress: resist stress without loss of functionwithout loss of function
• redundancyredundancy: ability to continue: ability to continue functioning during periods of disruptionfunctioning during periods of disruption
• redundancyredundancy: ability to continue: ability to continue functioning during periods of disruptionfunctioning during periods of disruption
• ingenuityingenuity: ability to identify: ability to identify problems and mobilise resourcesproblems and mobilise resources
• ingenuityingenuity: ability to identify: ability to identify problems and mobilise resourcesproblems and mobilise resources
• rapidityrapidity: ability to satisfy objectives: ability to satisfy objectives and priorities so as to reduce lossesand priorities so as to reduce losses..
• rapidityrapidity: ability to satisfy objectives: ability to satisfy objectives and priorities so as to reduce lossesand priorities so as to reduce losses..
Recoveryafter disaster
Recoveryafter disaster
Physical recoveryPhysical recoveryBuildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc.Buildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc.
Physical recoveryPhysical recoveryBuildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc.Buildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc.
Soci
al a
nd
Soci
al a
nd
psy
cholo
gic
al
psy
cholo
gic
al
reco
very
reco
very
Soci
al a
nd
Soci
al a
nd
psy
cholo
gic
al
psy
cholo
gic
al
reco
very
reco
very
Reducing post-Reducing post-traumatic stresstraumatic stressReducing post-Reducing post-
traumatic stresstraumatic stress
Eco
nom
ic
Eco
nom
ic
recovery
recovery
Eco
nom
ic
Eco
nom
ic
recovery
recovery
Re-establishingRe-establishingproduction andproduction and
economic activitieseconomic activities
Re-establishingRe-establishingproduction andproduction and
economic activitieseconomic activities
The recovery triangleThe recovery triangleThe recovery triangleThe recovery triangle
Political,cultural and
environmentalcontext..
How to estimate vulnerability in the fieldHow to estimate vulnerability in the fieldHow to estimate vulnerability in the fieldHow to estimate vulnerability in the field
Elements:Elements: Elements:Elements:
• buildingsbuildings and physical structures and physical structures• buildingsbuildings and physical structures and physical structures
• lifelines and lifelines and infrastructureinfrastructure• lifelines and lifelines and infrastructureinfrastructure
• patterns of patterns of activityactivity
that put people at riskthat put people at risk
• patterns of patterns of activityactivity
that put people at riskthat put people at risk
• perceptionsperceptions of hazard of hazard• perceptionsperceptions of hazard of hazard
• concentrations and concentrations and patternspatterns
of elements at riskof elements at risk..
• concentrations and concentrations and patternspatterns
of elements at riskof elements at risk..
Vulnerability in theVulnerability in theconnection betweenconnection betweenwall and joistwall and joist leads leadsto collapse of the to collapse of the structure in anstructure in anearthquakeearthquake
Random rubbleRandom rubblemasonrymasonry with withpowdery limepowdery limemortarmortar is a is amajor sourcemajor sourceof vulnerabilityof vulnerabilityin historic andin historic andold buildings.old buildings.
Random rubbleRandom rubblemasonrymasonry with withpowdery limepowdery limemortarmortar is a is amajor sourcemajor sourceof vulnerabilityof vulnerabilityin historic andin historic andold buildings.old buildings.
Collapse often beginsat roof level if roofstructure is too rigidand poorly tied tovertical load-bearingmembers.
Collapse often beginsat roof level if roofstructure is too rigidand poorly tied tovertical load-bearingmembers.
Cornices,parapets and other Cornices,parapets and other façadefaçadedetailsdetails are particularly vulnerable to are particularly vulnerable to
damage in earthquakes.damage in earthquakes.
Cornices,parapets and other Cornices,parapets and other façadefaçadedetailsdetails are particularly vulnerable to are particularly vulnerable to
damage in earthquakes.damage in earthquakes.
Inadequately constructed frame buildingsInadequately constructed frame buildingsare vulnerable to are vulnerable to progressive collapseprogressive collapse
Inadequately constructed frame buildingsInadequately constructed frame buildingsare vulnerable to are vulnerable to progressive collapseprogressive collapse
Battering by adjacentBattering by adjacentbuildings with differentbuildings with different
fundamental periodsfundamental periodsof vibration.of vibration.
Battering by adjacentBattering by adjacentbuildings with differentbuildings with different
fundamental periodsfundamental periodsof vibration.of vibration.
Zone of interferenceZone of interferenceZone of interferenceZone of interference
Differential movementsDifferential movementsDifferential movementsDifferential movements
Pre-earthquakePre-earthquakeroof-lineroof-linePre-earthquakePre-earthquakeroof-lineroof-line
ReplacementReplacementstoneworkstoneworkReplacementReplacementstoneworkstonework
StairwellsStairwellsare oftenare oftenthe most vulnerablethe most vulnerablepart of the buildingpart of the buildingduring earthquakes, andduring earthquakes, andthe first part that peoplethe first part that peopleuse as they try to use as they try to escape.escape.
StairwellsStairwellsare oftenare oftenthe most vulnerablethe most vulnerablepart of the buildingpart of the buildingduring earthquakes, andduring earthquakes, andthe first part that peoplethe first part that peopleuse as they try to use as they try to escape.escape.
Self-protection during earthquakes andSelf-protection during earthquakes andtornadoes is tornadoes is NOT NOT fostered by the myth thatfostered by the myth thatit is safe to shelter under desks and tables.it is safe to shelter under desks and tables.
Self-protection during earthquakes andSelf-protection during earthquakes andtornadoes is tornadoes is NOT NOT fostered by the myth thatfostered by the myth thatit is safe to shelter under desks and tables.it is safe to shelter under desks and tables.
Seismic landslideSeismic landslidetakes centre outtakes centre out
of town three daysof town three daysafter large earthquakeafter large earthquake
Seismic landslideSeismic landslidetakes centre outtakes centre out
of town three daysof town three daysafter large earthquakeafter large earthquake
Rotational slumping:Rotational slumping:the ancient (1777)the ancient (1777)and modern (1982)and modern (1982)
Rotational slumping:Rotational slumping:the ancient (1777)the ancient (1777)and modern (1982)and modern (1982)
SeaSeacoastcoastSeaSea
coastcoast
MassiveMassivelandslidelandslideMassiveMassivelandslidelandslide
PushPusheffecteffectPushPusheffecteffect
UrbanUrbanareasareasUrbanUrbanareasareas
Forward thrustForward thrustForward thrustForward thrust
Nodes areNodes arefirst to failfirst to failNodes areNodes arefirst to failfirst to fail
ColumnsColumnsshear throughshear throughunder sustainedunder sustainedpressurepressure
ColumnsColumnsshear throughshear throughunder sustainedunder sustainedpressurepressure
Landslide directionLandslide directionLandslide directionLandslide direction
LandslideLandslideheadscarpheadscarpLandslideLandslideheadscarpheadscarp
ExtensionalExtensionalmovementmovementExtensionalExtensionalmovementmovement
Pull-apartPull-apartupslope ofupslope ofheadscarpheadscarp
Pull-apartPull-apartupslope ofupslope ofheadscarpheadscarp
SpontaneousSpontaneoustoppling failuretoppling failure
in unconsolidatedin unconsolidatedsandssands
SpontaneousSpontaneoustoppling failuretoppling failure
in unconsolidatedin unconsolidatedsandssands
BackwardBackwardrotation ofrotation of
toppled blockstoppled blocks
BackwardBackwardrotation ofrotation of
toppled blockstoppled blocks
Bedrooms whereBedrooms wherefour people diedfour people diedBedrooms whereBedrooms wherefour people diedfour people died
Spontaneous total failure of foundationsSpontaneous total failure of foundationsSpontaneous total failure of foundationsSpontaneous total failure of foundations
Spontaneous totalSpontaneous totalfailure of r-c frame bldgfailure of r-c frame bldg
Spontaneous totalSpontaneous totalfailure of r-c frame bldgfailure of r-c frame bldg
...with some...with someforward thrustforward thrust
Historic urban landscapeHistoric urban landscape(with castle, etc.)(with castle, etc.)Historic urban landscapeHistoric urban landscape(with castle, etc.)(with castle, etc.)
and a nice, historicand a nice, historicurban landslideurban landslideand a nice, historicand a nice, historicurban landslideurban landslide
Tranquil Alpine sceneTranquil Alpine sceneTranquil Alpine sceneTranquil Alpine scene
...with debris flow...with debris flow...with debris flow...with debris flow
...and several...and severalbrand-new hotelsbrand-new hotelsat its footat its foot
...and several...and severalbrand-new hotelsbrand-new hotelsat its footat its foot
Unstable slopes of
Unstable slopes of
clastic weathered rocks
clastic weathered rocks
subject to mass movements
subject to mass movements
Unstable slopes of
Unstable slopes of
clastic weathered rocks
clastic weathered rocks
subject to mass movements
subject to mass movements
ExposureExposureExposureExposure SensitivitySensitivitySensitivitySensitivity
Capacity toCapacity toadaptadapt
Capacity toCapacity toadaptadapt
VULNERA-VULNERA-BILITYBILITY
VULNERA-VULNERA-BILITYBILITY
Dimensions ofDimensions ofvulnerability:vulnerability:
• exposureexposure• sensitivitysensitivity• capacitycapacity
to adaptto adapt
Dimensions ofDimensions ofvulnerability:vulnerability:
• exposureexposure• sensitivitysensitivity• capacitycapacity
to adaptto adapt
ComponentsComponentsof the dimensionsof the dimensions
ComponentsComponentsof the dimensionsof the dimensions
Measures ofMeasures ofthe componentsthe components
Measures ofMeasures ofthe componentsthe components
VulnerabilityVulnerability• DimensionsDimensions• ComponentsComponents• MeasuresMeasures
VulnerabilityVulnerability• DimensionsDimensions• ComponentsComponents• MeasuresMeasures
EsposureEsposureEsposureEsposure SensitivitySensitivitySensitivitySensitivity
CapacityCapacityto adaptto adaptCapacityCapacityto adaptto adapt
VULNERA-VULNERA-BILITYBILITY
VULNERA-VULNERA-BILITYBILITY
Physical dimensionsPhysical dimensionsPhysical dimensionsPhysical dimensions
Age of theAge of theinfrastructureinfrastructure
Age of theAge of theinfrastructureinfrastructure
Age andAge andincome of theincome of the
populationpopulation
Age andAge andincome of theincome of the
populationpopulationDemo-graphy
Technology
Res-ponse
ManagementstructureAccess to
information andtechnology
Exposedres-ources
Exposedpopulation
IntensityIntensityIntensityIntensity
FrequencyFrequencyFrequencyFrequency
LocationLocationLocationLocation
NumberNumberNumberNumber
Wealth andWealth andwell beingwell being
Wealth andWealth andwell beingwell being
TaxTaxrevenuesrevenues
TaxTaxrevenuesrevenues
EmergencyEmergencyplansplans
EmergencyEmergencyplansplans
Level ofLevel ofeducationeducationLevel ofLevel of
educationeducation
InformationInformationservicesservices
InformationInformationservicesservices
Risk & disaster managementRisk & disaster management Risk & disaster managementRisk & disaster management
Risks must be:Risks must be:
• identified• identified• estimated• estimated• analysed• analysed• compared• compared
• communicated to people who are at risk• communicated to people who are at risk• managed.• managed.
Risk identificationRisk identification: what are the risks?: what are the risks?Risk identificationRisk identification: what are the risks?: what are the risks?
Risk assessment or analysisRisk assessment or analysis::how serious are the riskshow serious are the risksand what do they consist of?and what do they consist of?
Risk assessment or analysisRisk assessment or analysis::how serious are the riskshow serious are the risksand what do they consist of?and what do they consist of?
Risk managementRisk management: how: howcan risks be reduced?can risks be reduced?Risk managementRisk management: how: howcan risks be reduced?can risks be reduced?
Risk perception and communicationRisk perception and communication::how can risks be communicated tohow can risks be communicated tothe public, mass media or others?the public, mass media or others?
Risk perception and communicationRisk perception and communication::how can risks be communicated tohow can risks be communicated tothe public, mass media or others?the public, mass media or others?
How experts deal with risk:How experts deal with risk:How experts deal with risk:How experts deal with risk:
Risk assessment procedure:Risk assessment procedure:Risk assessment procedure:Risk assessment procedure:
• identify hazardidentify hazard: identify and: identify and characterize source of hazardcharacterize source of hazard• identify hazardidentify hazard: identify and: identify and characterize source of hazardcharacterize source of hazard• assess dose-responseassess dose-response: estimate: estimate relationship between exposure andrelationship between exposure and probability of negative effectsprobability of negative effects
• assess dose-responseassess dose-response: estimate: estimate relationship between exposure andrelationship between exposure and probability of negative effectsprobability of negative effects
• assess exposureassess exposure: determine the: determine the intensity, frequency and durationintensity, frequency and duration of exposure to the source of harmof exposure to the source of harm
• assess exposureassess exposure: determine the: determine the intensity, frequency and durationintensity, frequency and duration of exposure to the source of harmof exposure to the source of harm• characterise riskcharacterise risk: estimate the: estimate the level of risk in relation to dose,level of risk in relation to dose, exposure and responseexposure and response..
• characterise riskcharacterise risk: estimate the: estimate the level of risk in relation to dose,level of risk in relation to dose, exposure and responseexposure and response..
HAZARDHAZARD
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
HAZARDHAZARD
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
LO
WLO
W
MED
IUM
MED
IUM
HIG
HH
IGH
LO
WLO
W
MED
IUM
MED
IUM
HIG
HH
IGH
A simpleA simplerisk assessmentrisk assessment
matrixmatrix
A simpleA simplerisk assessmentrisk assessment
matrixmatrix
SeveritSeverityy
negligiblenegligible
marginalmarginal
moderatemoderate
seriousserious
catastrophiccatastrophic
SeveritSeverityy
negligiblenegligible
marginalmarginal
moderatemoderate
seriousserious
catastrophiccatastrophic
Pro
bab
ilityP
rob
ab
ilityof
of
occu
rren
ce
occu
rren
ce
freq
uen
tfre
qu
en
t
pro
bab
lep
rob
ab
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leacceptableacceptable significantsignificant criticalcriticalRisk level:Risk level:Risk level:Risk level:
BCM risk assessment matrixBCM risk assessment matrixBCM risk assessment matrixBCM risk assessment matrix
Constructing a Constructing a risk registerrisk registerConstructing a Constructing a risk registerrisk register
• all employees should be encouragedall employees should be encouraged to contribute to the to contribute to the identificationidentification,, discussiondiscussion and and explorationexploration of risksof risks
• all employees should be encouragedall employees should be encouraged to contribute to the to contribute to the identificationidentification,, discussiondiscussion and and explorationexploration of risksof risks
• institute a institute a "no fault, no blame""no fault, no blame" cultureculture for the identification of risksfor the identification of risks• institute a institute a "no fault, no blame""no fault, no blame" cultureculture for the identification of risksfor the identification of risks
• appoint and train a appoint and train a risk managerrisk manager in each departmentin each department of the organisationof the organisation• appoint and train a appoint and train a risk managerrisk manager in each departmentin each department of the organisationof the organisation
• have frequent and open have frequent and open discussionsdiscussions about how to manage the risksabout how to manage the risks..• have frequent and open have frequent and open discussionsdiscussions about how to manage the risksabout how to manage the risks..
Riskregister
Riskregister
Company Board and CEOCompany Board and CEOCompany Board and CEOCompany Board and CEO
Business continuity management boardBusiness continuity management boardBusiness continuity management boardBusiness continuity management board
BCM project team (and leader)BCM project team (and leader)• direct projectdirect project
•ensure appropriate resourcesensure appropriate resources• ensure qualityensure quality
BCM project team (and leader)BCM project team (and leader)• direct projectdirect project
•ensure appropriate resourcesensure appropriate resources• ensure qualityensure quality
[Departmental][Departmental]working groupworking group
[Departmental][Departmental]working groupworking group
[Departmental][Departmental]working groupworking group
[Departmental][Departmental]working groupworking group
Risk analysisRisk analysis should express:- should express:-Risk analysisRisk analysis should express:- should express:-
• probabilityprobability of event of given size of event of given size• probabilityprobability of event of given size of event of given size
• impact impact magnitudemagnitude / population size / population size• impact impact magnitudemagnitude / population size / population size
• basic basic conditionsconditions and and assumptionsassumptions• basic basic conditionsconditions and and assumptionsassumptions
• uncertaintyuncertainty and and confidenceconfidence levels levels• uncertaintyuncertainty and and confidenceconfidence levels levels
• how predictions were how predictions were obtainedobtained..• how predictions were how predictions were obtainedobtained..
• singlesingle or or multiplemultiple risks considered? risks considered?• singlesingle or or multiplemultiple risks considered? risks considered?
• totaltotal or or partialpartial risk? risk?• totaltotal or or partialpartial risk? risk?
• voluntaryvoluntary or or involuntaryinvoluntary exposure? exposure?• voluntaryvoluntary or or involuntaryinvoluntary exposure? exposure?
• how analysis will affecthow analysis will affect managementmanagement of the risk of the risk..• how analysis will affecthow analysis will affect managementmanagement of the risk of the risk..
Risk analysisRisk analysis should express:- should express:-Risk analysisRisk analysis should express:- should express:-
Factors that limit risk mitigation:Factors that limit risk mitigation:Factors that limit risk mitigation:Factors that limit risk mitigation:
• environmentalenvironmental hazard levels hazard levels• environmentalenvironmental hazard levels hazard levels
• human human activitiesactivities• human human activitiesactivities
• unclear unclear responsibilitiesresponsibilities• unclear unclear responsibilitiesresponsibilities
• poor understanding ofpoor understanding of organisational organisational networksnetworks• poor understanding ofpoor understanding of organisational organisational networksnetworks
• inadequate inadequate trainingtraining and education and education..• inadequate inadequate trainingtraining and education and education..
Risk communication messagesRisk communication messages should:-should:-
Risk communication messagesRisk communication messages should:-should:-
• come from an come from an officialofficial source source• come from an come from an officialofficial source source
• clearly clearly explainexplain risk and its likelihood risk and its likelihood• clearly clearly explainexplain risk and its likelihood risk and its likelihood
• say what sort of say what sort of impactimpact is expected is expected• say what sort of say what sort of impactimpact is expected is expected
• describe probable describe probable effecteffect of impact of impact• describe probable describe probable effecteffect of impact of impact
• and where to get more and where to get more informationinformation..• and where to get more and where to get more informationinformation..
• explain what explain what to doto do......• explain what explain what to doto do......
Risk communication messagesRisk communication messagesshould:-should:-
Risk communication messagesRisk communication messagesshould:-should:-
• present information present information in sequencein sequence• present information present information in sequencein sequence
• encourage people to encourage people to shareshare information information with colleagues, family and friendswith colleagues, family and friends• encourage people to encourage people to shareshare information information with colleagues, family and friendswith colleagues, family and friends
• repeatrepeat message many times message many times..• repeatrepeat message many times message many times..
• explain explain importanceimportance of message of message and the need for actionand the need for action• explain explain importanceimportance of message of message and the need for actionand the need for action
The essence of disaster management:-The essence of disaster management:-The essence of disaster management:-The essence of disaster management:-
To tackle pressing needs withmaximum efficiency and speed butwith scarce resources and in the
absence of necessary information
To tackle pressing needs withmaximum efficiency and speed butwith scarce resources and in the
absence of necessary information
BUT emergency planning is still a young field:it lacks international consensus on standards,
procedures, and legal and institutional imperatives
BUT emergency planning is still a young field:it lacks international consensus on standards,
procedures, and legal and institutional imperatives
Modern emergency plans are Modern emergency plans are genericgeneric(("all hazards""all hazards"):-):-
Modern emergency plans are Modern emergency plans are genericgeneric(("all hazards""all hazards"):-):-
• adaptableadaptable to all emergencies to all emergencies• adaptableadaptable to all emergencies to all emergencies
• focussed on the emergencies deemedfocussed on the emergencies deemed most likely to occurmost likely to occur in the local area in the local area• focussed on the emergencies deemedfocussed on the emergencies deemed most likely to occurmost likely to occur in the local area in the local area
• technical sophisticationtechnical sophistication must must be balanced by be balanced by ease of useease of use..• technical sophisticationtechnical sophistication must must be balanced by be balanced by ease of useease of use..
Emergencyenvironment
Setprocedures
Setprocedures
Co-ordinatingplan
Co-ordinatingplan
SpontaneousimprovisationSpontaneousimprovisation
Emergencyenvironment
Setprocedures
Setprocedures Co-ordinating
planCo-ordinating
plan
SpontaneousimprovisationSpontaneousimprovisation
Continuityof
production
Preservation oforganisation's
good name
Safeguardingof assets
Maintenanceof marketposition
Generic crisis typologyGeneric crisis typologyGeneric crisis typologyGeneric crisis typology
Some typical risks:-Some typical risks:-Some typical risks:-Some typical risks:-
• loss of customer loss of customer recordsrecords• loss of customer loss of customer recordsrecords
• breakdown of the breakdown of the supply chainsupply chain• breakdown of the breakdown of the supply chainsupply chain
• failure of failure of essential services essential services on whichon which production or customer support dependsproduction or customer support depends• failure of failure of essential services essential services on whichon which production or customer support dependsproduction or customer support depends
• inability to inability to deliver the product deliver the product for afor a significant period of time for any reasonsignificant period of time for any reason• inability to inability to deliver the product deliver the product for afor a significant period of time for any reasonsignificant period of time for any reason
• negative negative perceptionsperceptions of the company by of the company by clients, customers or the publicclients, customers or the public..• negative negative perceptionsperceptions of the company by of the company by clients, customers or the publicclients, customers or the public..
Some reasons why supplies may fail:-Some reasons why supplies may fail:-Some reasons why supplies may fail:-Some reasons why supplies may fail:-
• industrial action industrial action halts productionhalts production• industrial action industrial action halts productionhalts production
• faulty componentsfaulty components leads to product recall leads to product recall• faulty componentsfaulty components leads to product recall leads to product recall
• supplier supplier ceases trading ceases trading (goes into(goes into bankruptcy or receivership)bankruptcy or receivership)• supplier supplier ceases trading ceases trading (goes into(goes into bankruptcy or receivership)bankruptcy or receivership)
• fire, flood or fire, flood or natural disasternatural disaster strikes supplier's premisesstrikes supplier's premises• fire, flood or fire, flood or natural disasternatural disaster strikes supplier's premisesstrikes supplier's premises
• computercomputer systems fail systems fail..• computercomputer systems fail systems fail..
Possible impact of interruptionsPossible impact of interruptionsto supplies and suppliers:-to supplies and suppliers:-
Possible impact of interruptionsPossible impact of interruptionsto supplies and suppliers:-to supplies and suppliers:-
• loss of independenceloss of independence• inability to fulfill ordersinability to fulfill orders• loss of confidential or sensitive info.loss of confidential or sensitive info.• increased exposure to fraudincreased exposure to fraud and unauthorised transactionsand unauthorised transactions• loss of dataloss of data• loss of audit trailloss of audit trail• failure of purchasing andfailure of purchasing and scheduling software systemsscheduling software systems• legal liability due to failure tolegal liability due to failure to fulfill contractual obligationsfulfill contractual obligations..
• loss of independenceloss of independence• inability to fulfill ordersinability to fulfill orders• loss of confidential or sensitive info.loss of confidential or sensitive info.• increased exposure to fraudincreased exposure to fraud and unauthorised transactionsand unauthorised transactions• loss of dataloss of data• loss of audit trailloss of audit trail• failure of purchasing andfailure of purchasing and scheduling software systemsscheduling software systems• legal liability due to failure tolegal liability due to failure to fulfill contractual obligationsfulfill contractual obligations..
CRISIS
OPERATIONSOPERATIONS(ACHIEVEMENTS)(ACHIEVEMENTS)
OPERATIONSOPERATIONS(ACHIEVEMENTS)(ACHIEVEMENTS)REPUTATIONREPUTATIONREPUTATIONREPUTATION
PerceptionPerceptionPerceptionPerception
CommunicationCommunicationCommunicationCommunication
ConcreteConcretedevelopmentsdevelopments
• positivepositive• negativenegative
ConcreteConcretedevelopmentsdevelopments
• positivepositive• negativenegative
Some risk reduction measures:-Some risk reduction measures:-Some risk reduction measures:-Some risk reduction measures:-
• stock reductionstock reduction• separation of high-risk storageseparation of high-risk storage• design changesdesign changes• safety trainingsafety training• data securitydata security• data storage redundancydata storage redundancy• product and building securityproduct and building security..
• stock reductionstock reduction• separation of high-risk storageseparation of high-risk storage• design changesdesign changes• safety trainingsafety training• data securitydata security• data storage redundancydata storage redundancy• product and building securityproduct and building security..
PROVINCIAL,COUNTY,STATE ORREGIONALDISASTER
PLAN
PROVINCIAL,COUNTY,STATE ORREGIONALDISASTER
PLAN
NATIONALDISASTER
PLAN
NATIONALDISASTER
PLAN
CITYDISASTER
PLAN
AIRPORTEMERGENCY
PLAN
INDUSTRIALCONTINGENCY
PLAN
COMMERCIALFACILITIES
CONTINGENCYPLAN
EMSNETWORK
CONTINGENCYPLAN
EMSNETWORK
CONTINGENCYPLAN
HOSPITALEMSPLAN
HOSPITALEMSPLAN
MEDICALFACILITY
PLAN
BCMBCM
Where businessWhere businesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagementfits in:fits in:
Where businessWhere businesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagementfits in:fits in:
Recovery andRecovery andreconstructionreconstruction
planningplanning
Recovery andRecovery andreconstructionreconstruction
planningplanning
Strategic,Strategic,tactical & operationaltactical & operationalplanningplanning
Strategic,Strategic,tactical & operationaltactical & operationalplanningplanning
AftermathAftermath
DisasterDisasterDisasterDisaster
MonitoringMonitoringpredictionprediction& warning& warning
MonitoringMonitoringpredictionprediction& warning& warning
Permanent emergency planPermanent emergency planPermanent emergency planPermanent emergency plan
Business continuity planBusiness continuity planBusiness continuity planBusiness continuity plan
An crisis management plan:-An crisis management plan:-An crisis management plan:-An crisis management plan:-
• should be should be simplesimple in conceptionin conception• should be should be simplesimple in conceptionin conception
• is a is a living document living document that needsthat needs continual updatingcontinual updating• is a is a living document living document that needsthat needs continual updatingcontinual updating
• should define the should define the ground rules ground rules forfor co-ordinating emergency activitiesco-ordinating emergency activities• should define the should define the ground rules ground rules forfor co-ordinating emergency activitiesco-ordinating emergency activities
• should be able to deal with should be able to deal with internallyinternally and externally generated crisesand externally generated crises..• should be able to deal with should be able to deal with internallyinternally and externally generated crisesand externally generated crises..
Specifying an incidentSpecifying an incidentmanagement structure:-management structure:-Specifying an incidentSpecifying an incident
management structure:-management structure:-
• call-outcall-out arrangementsarrangements• call-outcall-out arrangementsarrangements
• means of means of co-ordinatingco-ordinating groups and teamsgroups and teams• means of means of co-ordinatingco-ordinating groups and teamsgroups and teams
• command and controlcommand and control structuresstructures• command and controlcommand and control structuresstructures
• communicationscommunications channels & channels & media contactmedia contact• communicationscommunications channels & channels & media contactmedia contact
• inter-departmental and inter-inter-departmental and inter- organisationalorganisational co-ordination measuresco-ordination measures..• inter-departmental and inter-inter-departmental and inter- organisationalorganisational co-ordination measuresco-ordination measures..
Construction of operationalscenarios of hazard, risk, impact
and emergency response
Existence of various statesof hazard and vulnerability
Census ofavailable resources
Emergency action plan
Pro
cess
es o
f co
nst
ant
adap
tati
on
of
the
pla
n
Revis
ion
TestingTesting Evaluation
ActivationActivation DisasterDisaster
Initial study
DisseminationDissemination Information
FormulationFormulationand updatingand updating
of planof plan
Stakeholders'input Training
PlanPlan
Apparentchaos
Apparentchaos ModelModel
Testing
DisasterDisasterDisasterDisaster
Outcome
Feedback
Feed
back
Evaluation
InitiatingInitiatingthe processthe processInitiatingInitiating
the processthe processPlanning forPlanning for
businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity
Planning forPlanning forbusinessbusiness
continuitycontinuity
ImplementingImplementingthe planthe plan
ImplementingImplementingthe planthe plan
ManagingManagingthe crisisthe crisis
ManagingManagingthe crisisthe crisis
• scope• policy• structure• resources• mechanisms
• scope• policy• structure• resources• mechanisms
Changingthe mindsetChanging
the mindset
Business impact analysisBusiness impact analysisBusiness impact analysisBusiness impact analysis
Create the BCM planCreate the BCM planCreate the BCM planCreate the BCM plan
Business impact evaluationBusiness impact evaluationObjectives ->Objectives ->
Risks ->Risks ->Priorities ->Priorities ->ScenariosScenarios
Business impact evaluationBusiness impact evaluationObjectives ->Objectives ->
Risks ->Risks ->Priorities ->Priorities ->ScenariosScenarios
Internal analysisInternal analysis• products and servicesproducts and services• activities and resourcesactivities and resources• dependenciesdependencies
Internal analysisInternal analysis• products and servicesproducts and services• activities and resourcesactivities and resources• dependenciesdependencies
External analysisExternal analysis• market environmentmarket environment• stakeholder analysisstakeholder analysis• supply chain analysissupply chain analysis
External analysisExternal analysis• market environmentmarket environment• stakeholder analysisstakeholder analysis• supply chain analysissupply chain analysis
Conclusions
DisasterDisasteropens aopens awindow ofwindow ofopportunityopportunityfor positivefor positivechange andchange andgreatergreatersecuritysecurity
DisasterDisasteropens aopens awindow ofwindow ofopportunityopportunityfor positivefor positivechange andchange andgreatergreatersecuritysecurity
What is What is sustainablesustainable disaster risk reduction? disaster risk reduction?What is What is sustainablesustainable disaster risk reduction? disaster risk reduction?
• it is centred upon the it is centred upon the local levellocal level (but is (but is harmonisedharmonised from above) from above)• it is centred upon the it is centred upon the local levellocal level (but is (but is harmonisedharmonised from above) from above)
• through through consultationconsultation it has the support it has the support and involvement of the and involvement of the populationpopulation• through through consultationconsultation it has the support it has the support and involvement of the and involvement of the populationpopulation
• plans tackle all the plans tackle all the phases of thephases of the disaster cycledisaster cycle - in an integrative way - in an integrative way• plans tackle all the plans tackle all the phases of thephases of the disaster cycledisaster cycle - in an integrative way - in an integrative way
• it is a fundamental, every-day it is a fundamental, every-day serviceservice for the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..• it is a fundamental, every-day it is a fundamental, every-day serviceservice for the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..
needs to be shortenedneeds to belengthened
preparationfor the
next event
warningand
evacuation
recovery andreconstruction
repairof basicservices
emergencymanagementand rescue
isolation
impact
needs to bestrengthenedRisk reduction and disaster mitigation
www.terrapublishing.netwww.terrapublishing.net
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!