risk assessment in trans-boundary cooperation between the netherlands and germany
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Risk assessment in trans-boundary cooperation between the Netherlands and Germany. Jan Stijnen. Presentation overview. Introduction Study area Risk-assessment method Sensitivity analysis Summary and future plans. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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1Flood Defence Toronto, May 6-8, 2008
Risk assessment in trans-boundary cooperation between the
Netherlands and Germany
Jan Stijnen
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Toronto, May 6-8, 2008Flood Defence 2
Presentation overview
• Introduction
• Study area
• Risk-assessment method
• Sensitivity analysis
• Summary and future plans
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Introduction
• Flood protection in boundary area of Germany and
the Netherlands
• Identify and reduce flood risk for 2 dike ring areas
along the Rhine
• Cooperation!
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Introduction
• Project initiation: 2005
• Three phases
1. Communication and identification (2006)
2. Risk-analysis of right-hand side dike ring (2007)
3. Risk-analysis of left-hand side dike ring (2008)
• Joint method, based on existing software/techniques
• Time horizons: 2006, 2015 and 2015+
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Study area
Transboundary
dike rings along the
river Rhine
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Study area
Dike ring 48
Dike ring 42
12.5 miles
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Scope of the project
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Failure mechanisms
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Computation of failure probabilities
– Overflow
– Wave overtopping
– Bursting of the soil & piping
– Stability of the slope
– No structures
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Failure mechanisms / probabilities
• Identification of 10 weak spots, based on Dutch
deterministic assessment method and local expert
knowledge
• Probabilistic computation of failure probabilities every
100 meters for wave overtopping only
• Detailed probabilistic computation of failure
probabilities for 10 weak spots
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Differences in dike design
T = 1250 years
T = 500 years
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Difference in maintenance
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Breach and flood simulation
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Breach and flood simulation
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Damage assessment
Flood simulationDamage and
loss of life moduleDamage function for agriculture and recreation
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 1 2 3 4 5
Flood depth [m]
Dam
age
fact
or
Land use
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Flood risk
Risk=
probability
consequence
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Cost-benefit analysis of measures
Types of (structural) measures:
– Dike strengthening
– Compartment dikes
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Compartment dike
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Compartment dike
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Sensitivity analysis
Verification of sensitivity to assumptions
– Critical overtopping discharge
– Breach development (width, water level, moment
of breach)
– Flood wave (shape and height of discharge wave)
– Correction of damage and costs
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Summary and future plans
• Cooperation very successfull as a result of the
communication and identification phase
• Much added value because of different partners
• Project in last phase
• Final results this summer (symposium)
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Thank you for your attention!