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Risk of bushfire Consequences Likelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities Fire Behaviour Potential

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Page 1: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

Page 2: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Mt Nelson and surrounds

Page 3: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk = consequences x likelihood

Mt Nelson

Mt Wellington Hobart

Page 4: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

Page 5: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Consequences

Mt Nelson

Page 6: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of Bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

Flora

Fauna

Geo-morphic

Water catchment

Ramsar sites

Page 7: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Natural Values

Mt Nelson

Page 8: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of Bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

Production Forest

Research Monitoring

Agriculture Production

Page 9: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Forest and Agriculture Values

Mt Nelson

Page 10: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of Bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

PWS-IMS

Neighbour

Wildland Urban Interface (high life risk (schools, hospitals), multi-occupancy, business, single occupancy)

Infrastructure (critical (eg. high tension powerlines), burnable / replaceable)

Heritage Buildings

Non-burnable

Page 11: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Constructed values

Mt Nelson

Page 12: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of Bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

Page 13: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Likelihood

Mt Nelson

Page 14: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of Bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

Historical Fire Records

Lightening Probability

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) observations

Page 15: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Ignition Potential

Mt Nelson

Page 16: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of Bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

Detection capabilities

(Fire towers, spotter flights, commercial routes)

Ground Attack Coverage (Parks and Wildlife Services bases, Tasmanian Fire Service Brigade bases)

Rotary Wing attack coverage (water buckets)

Page 17: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Suppression Capacity

Mt Nelson

Page 18: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Detection

Mt Nelson

Page 19: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Risk of Bushfire

Consequences Likelihood

Natural Values

Forestry and Agricultural Values

Constructed Values

Ignition Potential

Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour Potential

Head Fire Intensity

(90 Weather percentile -extreme weather events, fuel group, rate of spread.)

Fuel Flammability grid

(13 veg types)

Slope factor grid

Page 20: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Fire Behaviour

Mt Nelson

Page 21: Risk of bushfire ConsequencesLikelihood Natural Values Forestry and Agricultural Values Constructed Values Ignition Potential Suppression capabilities

Flammability of vegetation

Dry Sclerophyll Bushland

Alpine Heath

Wet rainforest