risks to global outlook
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Risks to Global Outlook. Inter American Development Bank Meeting October 19, 2006 Desmond Lachman American Enterprise Institute. U.S. Household Savings and Debt Service Payments. % of disposable personal income. US Current Account Balance and Real Effective Exchange Rate. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Risks to Global Risks to Global OutlookOutlook
Inter American Development Inter American Development Bank MeetingBank Meeting
October 19, 2006October 19, 2006Desmond LachmanDesmond Lachman
American Enterprise InstituteAmerican Enterprise Institute
U.S. Household Savings and Debt Service Payments% of disposable personal income
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
(Per
cen
t)
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
Personal Savings Rate Debt Service Payments
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Current account balance(percent of GDP, left scale)
Real effective exchange rate(2000 = 100, inverted right scale)
US Current Account Balance and Real Effective Exchange Rate
Sources: Haver Analytics; International Financial Statistics; Lane and Milesi-Ferreti (2006); and Fund staff estimates .
Financing of US Current Account Deficit
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Fixed income position, net
Other asset position, net
Net foreign asset position
(percent of GDP)
Sources: Haver Analytics; International Financial Statistics; Lane and Milesi-Ferreti (2006); and Fund staff estimates .
China Current Account Balance as a Percent of GDP, 1994-2006F
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
95
100
105
110
115
120
125(Index)
Germany France Italy
Relative Unit Labor Costs in Relative Unit Labor Costs in EuropeEurope
Italy, France and Germany Unit Labor Cost trendsItaly, France and Germany Unit Labor Cost trends
Source: OECD, last observation Q2 2006
Italy+22% since
2000
Germany -5% since
2000
France +11% since
2000