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Risky business for Disney's studio armThe division is coming off a year in which operating income dropped significantly.

By Jim J. Jubak Jan 10, 2012 6:04PM

Walt Disneys (DIS +0.83%) movie business didn't look like it was going to turn in a

stunning 2011 before, but the well-publicized troubles of the studio's former m arketing

president MT Carney -- a Hollywood Reporter piece Monday quoted her departure e-

mail -- is drawing new attention to just how bad the first half of 2012 could be for a

busines s that accounts for 16% of the companys revenue.

Credit Suisse forecasts revenue at the studio entertainment division to ris e just 4% in

fiscal 2012. That comes after a fiscal 2011 in which operating income dropped by 11%.

But that performance in fiscal 2011 could wind up looking like the good old days and the projections for fiscal 2012

could turn out to be optimistic. The company's s late of big first-half releases is full of high-risk projects.

Science fiction epic "John Carter" is estimated to have cost $250 million, the New York Times reported. Pixars June

release is "Brave," a movie built around a Scottish princess that may not immediately appeal to boys. "The

Avengers," scheduled forMay, is the firs t Marvel movie that Disney will m arket on its own s ince buying Marvel in

2009.

Disney is set to release earnings on Feb. 7. Im not worried

about the recently concluded fiscal first quarter of 2012 that the

company will report then. It's guidance that could hold a

nasty surprise or two.

Negative comm ents about the s tudio entertainment division

arent going to be as damaging to the shares as bad news

about, say, theme parks. Most Wall Street analysts

covering Disney are resigned to the unpredictable volatility of the

movie busines s and wont ding the stock too hard for any problems in that unit.

But negative guidance on the m ovie unit still wont be help ful to the share p rice. The chart on the stock looks

extended -- its trading near the top of its Bollinger Band. Given the ris k in the Feb. 7 guidance, Im going to take m y

8% profit (as of Jan. 10) here. That's short of the absolu te dollar gain I was looking for when I added the stock to the

portfolio, but 8% plus dividends in a little more than a month is okay by me. (The next dividend isnt set to be paid

until Jan. 18, but since the record da te was Dec. 16, if you bought on Dec. 2, as I did in my Jubaks Picks portfolio,

youve already qualified for the payout.)

At the time of this writing, Jim Jub ak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in

this post in personal portfolios. The mu tual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity

Fund(JUBAX), may or m ay not own positions in any stock mentioned. The fund did not

own shares of Walt Disney as of the end o f September.For a full list of the stocks in the

fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here.

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steveG1956 Jan 10, 2012 7:07PM

disney seems to think that "big wow" special affects are more important than a basic good story.

until they change their thinking, disney movies will be a lagard on the company

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