PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of the European Climate

Foundation is strictly prohibited

ROADMAP  2050  A  prac/cal  guide  to  a  prosperous,  low-‐carbon  Europe  

 

ROADMAP 2050 PARTNERS

Transmission System Operators

NGOs

Manufacturers

Plus 40 more companies, NGOs and research institutes

Core Working Group participants Further outreach

Siemens

WWF

KEY STAKEHOLDERS WERE INVOLVED BY PROVIDING INPUT AND REVIEWING RESULTS

Utilities

THE DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS ANALYSED ARE SUSTAINABLE, TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE, AND HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY

1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve 2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline 3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries) SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Roadmap 2050 Technical Analysis

AT LEAST 80% CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION

ENERGY EFFICIENCY & FUEL SHIFT GIVE OVERALL DEMAND

ELECTRICITY DEMAND 2050 (EU-27 + Norway & Switzerland)

Energy production mix over the year, TWh per week

40% RES 30% CCS

30% nuclear

60% RES 20% CCS

20% nuclear

80% RES 10% CCS

10% nuclear

THREE SPECIFIC PATHWAYS MODELED INCLUDING BOTH GENERATION AND GRID COSTS

RES DIVERSITY CONTRIBUTES TO CONSISTENT SUPPLY

COMBINING REGIONAL DEMAND CURVES REDUCES VOLATILITY

INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS

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Requirements  on  top  of  the  baseline  

2050, GW

CURTAILMENT IS KEPT LOW THROUGH GRID EXPANSION AND BACK-UP CAPACITY

40%  RES    30%  CCS  30%  nuclear  

80%  RES    10%  CCS  10%  nuclear  

60%  RES    20%  CCS  20%  nuclear  

Transmission  &  genera/on  capacity  requirements  

Transmission   Back-‐up  and  balancing    RES  curtail-‐ment1,  %  DR,  %  Pathways  

Baseline  

ANNUAL CAPEX DEVELOPMENT

COST OF ELECTRICITY

LONG TERM EU27 GDP

DECARBONIZING THE ECONOMY SAVES MONEY