iea electricity security workshop€¦ · 2010 ref ghg40 electricity generation (twh), 2030* oil...
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Tomas Björnsson, Vice President Strategy & Market Intelligence
Paris, 2015-09-28
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Four things to consider for generation adequacy in a “high renewable” electricity systemIEA Electricity Security Workshop
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Decarbonization agenda will drive a significant growth in renewables –regardless of chosen policy route…
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
GHG45 +EE
+RES35
GHG40 +EE
+RES30
GHG40Ref2010
Electricity Generation (TWh), 2030*
Oil
Solids
Nuclear
Gas
RES
Note: Not exact numbers. Calculation made from numbers in the IA page 71: Total Gross Electricity Generation is presented in TWh. Generation technology in one digit shares of total.
Source: Impact Assessment accompanying the Communication “A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to 2030”
Impact assessment from “A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to 2030”
+233% +249% +269% +316%
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…as will general technology development (regardless of policy)
Levelized electricity cost wind
Cost range conventional technologies
0
50
100
150
200
250
20202015 2025 2030 2025 203020202015
• Technology developments. Supply chain & installation efficiency drive down
levelized cost of electricity of renewables
• Conventional thermal technology facing increasing levelized cost levels
through rising CO2 prices (or cost) and decreasing operating hours
Levelized electricity cost PV
EUR/MWh
offshoreonshore
Confidentiality – Medium (C2)
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For Sweden, generation adequacy challenges will be enhanced as the nuclear fleet starts to be decommissioned
4
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
27
Reliable capacityInstalled capacity
WindSolarNuclearCondenseGas turbines HydroBack pressure
20
150
140
130
80
70
60
50
120
110
100
90
40
30
10
0
135
Power production
Installed and reliable ”Capacity” 2014, GW Power production ”Energy” 2014, TWh
Sweden´s capacity requirement
an extreme winter
Sweden´s consumption
30% of
reliable
capacity
40% of
energy
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Sweden has a challenging demand profile over the year
5
17
18
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
TW
h
DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan
Sum of power consumption per month
Power consumption 2014 per month – Capacity from 8 ���� 27 GW
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4 important areas to address the need for flexibility
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Transmission infrastructure& integrated market
Flexibility of hydro power
Stronger coupling of heating and power systems
Demand-side management
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Transmission capacity and an integrated market reduces the capacity deficit
60
50
40
0
30
20
10
70
80
67
GW
2015
CondenseGasturbines Back pressure HydroNuclearWindImport cap Nordic
Nordic “reliable capacity” + full import
*Availability according to SvKs assumptions winter 14/15: Hydro 85%, Nuclear 84%, Wind 6%, Condense 90%, Backpressure 76%. 7
Unlikelihood of simultaneous max peaks
73
• Unlikelihood of simultaneous Nordic
peaks reduces current peak from 73 to
67 GW
• Possibility to rely on interconnectors
and imports reduces urgency of
securing domestic capacity
1
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Demand-side participation will be essential to “resolve” peak situations - extreme peaks occur only a handful of hours per year
8
1 344
846
387
14840400
1 590
1 199
724
431295
19994
8
>21>22>25 >23 >20>24>27 >26
10 year winter
Normal demand
Number of hours with high demand > X GW
Much to gain from permanently reducing peak demand - and from allowing for active demand-
side participation
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Stronger coupling of heating & power systems valuable from a system perspective
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Flexible CHP example - Ringkjøbing district heating plant (Denmark, 6 October 2014)
1. Prices not high
enough for CHP to
start
2. Heat demand is met
by thermal storage
3. Prices >30EUR/MWh
� economically viable
to run gas engine in
CHP to meet heat demand and obtain
revenues from
electricity
4. Solar fields heat water
5. Thermal storagemeets demand until
23:00
6. Gas boilers heat water
7. Prices are
<20EUR/MWh
� electric boilers heat
water
• 2 CHPs (one gas engine and a gas turbine)
• 1 electric boiler
• 4 gas boilers
• Heat storage
• Large scale solar heating field
Source: PointCarbon
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Hydro power flexibility will be essential to utilize (or at least preserve)
Demand 2015 & net demand 2050
(net demand = demand – wind and solar production)
Consumption minus wind and solar production, assuming significant RES growth (Feb 2015 vs 2050)
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Net demand variability and ramp rates increase for all operational timeframes (yearly,
seasonal, weekly, daily, hourly) – for system to manage, flexibility of hydro power, heat
infrastructure, DSM and imports will play important roles
4
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4 important areas to address the need for flexibility
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Transmission infrastructure& integrated market
Flexibility of hydro power
Stronger coupling of heating and power systems
Demand-side management
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Thank You