roger derrien managing director, wireless business development a/p lucent technologies
DESCRIPTION
Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies. What are our end-users expecting?. Is it UMTS? What’s that! Is it cdma2000? Could be but I don’t know what that is either. Is it harmonization? Maybe but what are we harmonizing. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1
Roger DerrienManaging Director, Wireless Business Development A/P
Lucent Technologies
2
What are our end-users expecting?
3
Is it UMTS? What’s that!
Is it cdma2000? Could be but I don’t know what that is either.
Is it harmonization? Maybe but what are we harmonizing.
Is it cheap, high speed, reliable service with killer applications?Yes, most definitely!!
4
Wireless Usage Will Soar
$0.00
$0.05$0.10
$0.15$0.20
$0.25
$0.30$0.35
$0.40$0.45
$0.50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/ M
inut
e of
Use
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Subs
crib
ers
(Mill
ions
); M
inut
es o
f Use
(Bill
ions
)
Cost/ MOU ($)
MOU (B)
Subscribers (M)
[Source: Merrill Lynch]
Rapidly declining costs per MOU and new services will drive subscriber growth and usage
5
Wireless Market Perspective
Early 80’s: How many cars need a telephone?
Late 90’s: How many people need a telephone?
Wireless market consistently underestimated because of unanticipated market changes.
Time
Premium Service
‘92 Conventional Wisdom
‘94 CW
‘97 CW
‘98CW
50% _ 40%_
30%_
20%_
10%_
0% _
% P
enet
ratio
n
Did not anticipate portable phone.
Did not anticipate pre-paid
‘99CW
Did not anticipate ???
6
How do we take them there?
Networks - today’s networks are data capable. Operators need to start there migration today to keep up with the future network demands of tomorrow.
Through an evolution of: Applications - internet, location based services and
transaction based applications over WAP will drive demand
Markets - operators need to determine what type of role they want to play in wireless data and what market segments to go after
7
09 February, 20000% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
USA
Japan
Asia/Pacific
West Europe
ROW MobileSubsrciberPenetrationInternetPenetration
Internet and Mobile Subscriber Penetration - 2004
Source: ARC Group
8
Data Rates for Wireless Services
30
Mas
s M
arke
t Dem
and
(5 y
ear v
iew
)
CreditCard
Verification
ShortMessageServices
RemoteOffice
IntegratedMessaging
LargeFile Transfer
MultimediaWWW
WirelessPostcard
Data rates assume lightly loaded packet channel. Optimized mediaaccess control necessary to assureadequate response time in highusage case.
Video/MultimediaConference
LimitedBroadcast
Video
Networkedcomputing
Fax
44-64 Kbps 144 Kbps 2 Mbps384 Kbps14.4 Kbps9.6 Kbps
Data Rate<9.6 Kbps
E-Banking/E-Commerce
Web Clipping
InteractiveGames &
Entertainment
9
• 2.5G & 3G enables personalization and integration– Individualized services across multiple networks– Seamless personal service delivery– Online, anywhere, anytime -- always on– m - commerce
Today’sToday’s communications are via multiple devices with the dependence on interfacing with intranets for timely
business information
Where The Internet And Mobility Intersect
InternetMobility
10
Buildings
Computers
People
Homes Appliances
TransportationVehicles & Systems
VendingMachines
$$
....
..
Communications Network Transformation
Multiple Connections per Person Networking Embedded in Household and Business Devices Full Time, “Always On” Connectivity, At Home, At Work, and On the Go:
Wireline: Fixed Broadband for Business, Entertainment & High End Applications Wireless: Mobility for Convenience & Portability Converged Services available via multiple forms of access.
IntelligentSubscriber Devices
People to People People to Things Things to Things
11
Influences on IMT-2000 “Family of Systems”
A “Family of Systems” for IMT-2000 services, ensuring network standards interoperability.
Cdma2000 & DoCoMo WCDMA
ARIB & TTC
ANSI-41 / WIN &GSM-MAP/CAMEL
Asia/Pacific
Cdma2000 & UWC-136
ANSI-41/ WIN
TIA TR 45
North America
UTRA
GSM-MAP / CAMELEuropeETSI
12
Network Options for GSM & cdmaOne Data Evolution per Ovum Research
cdmaOne Network Options
3X3X
No 3XNo 3X
cdmaOnecdmaOneIS-95AIS-95A
1998 1999 2000 2001
1X1X
GSM Network OptionsSource: Ovum ResearchPublished: Mobile Communications International
UMTSUMTS
No UMTSNo UMTS
HSCDHSCD
GPRSGPRS
GSMGSM
1998 1999 2001 2003
EDGEEDGE
IS-95BIS-95B
13
IMT-2000 Evolution Path Options
2G 2.5G 3G/ IMT-2000 ServicesExisting Spectrum
GSM900,1800
GPRS
GSM MOU
GSM
GSM 1900
GPRS
ETSIW-CDMA
3G NNIGSM N. America
Existing Spectrum New Spectrum
EDGE
IS-95A ANSI-95IS-95B
cdma2000Phase 11.25MHz
cdma2000Phase 2
5MHz
CDG
ANSI-41New Software
Changes toBS and Mobile
New HW and/or SWNew Mobiles/Data Device
Utilize Existing Voice Channels
New Software New Circuit Packs
New MobilesExisting Mobiles Still
Compatible
New BS & SWNew Mobiles/Data Device
Utilize Existing Voice Channels
New SoftwareNew BS Modules
New MobilesExisting Mobiles Still
Compatible
New SpectrumNew Air Interface
New MobilesBackward
Compatibility with GSM-MAP
14
Summary• It’s critical that we do not get consumed by the technology but stay
focused on the END-USER needs
• DoCoMo has shown us all that the issue is not access but providing key marketable applications to the end-user
• Even with all the efforts of the OHG there are still at least 3 distinct paths in supporting an evolution to IMT - 2000
Existing cdmaOne operators should deploy a 1XRTT solution migrating to 3G3X (CDMA2000)
Existing GSM operators will migrate to GPRS/EDGE migrating to UMTS through the purchase of new spectrum
Existing TDMA operators will follow a similar path as GSM stopping at EDGE
• Bottom line is that migration to a digital wireless network should begin “TODAY” regardless of the access network that you are operating