Roskilde University – Zero RegioMantova PCC11 2008

Funded by EU FP618-04-23Anders Chr. Hansen

Can HFC in automotive use contribute to EU goals?

Economic viability, competitiveness of HFC?If not: Taxes and subsidies

But only if supporting societal priorities and goalsQuantifying the reasons for tax-favoring HFC

18. apr 2023

Anders Chr. Hansen 2

Societal priorities and goals

Cost effectiveness

Energy efficiency

Eco-efficiency

Supply security

Can HFC in transport contribute to EU goals?

Focus on 2015-2025

18. apr 2023

Anders Chr. Hansen 3

Hydrogen cost comparisonbased on oil price of $25/bbl

Source: The Alternative Fuels Contact Group (2004)

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Anders Chr. Hansen 4

Will NG based H2 be delinked from the oil price?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

€/G

J (2

005

pric

e le

vel)

EU average import priceBrent, datedBrent price[-1] * 0.812

Figure 1. Natural Gas and Oi Prices 1976-2005.

Competitiveness threshold model

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Anders Chr. Hansen 5

Oil price ($(2005)/bbl)

Cost(€/km)

Petrol and diesel

Natural gas based H2

Wind, nuclear, etc. based H2

188105

Early studies

Thresholds

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Anders Chr. Hansen 6

Which competing technology?TtW energy efficiency advantage

JRC EUCAR and CONCAVE (2006): 

Direct hydrogen 0%

Direct hydrogen hybrid -11%

Gasoline PISI hybrid 72%

Gasoline/ethanol DISI hybrid 73%

Diesel/biodiesel DICI+DPF hybrid 55%

CNG PISI 48%

LH2 PISI 40%

Argonne National Laboratory (2007):

CIDI Vehicle (CD, BD, FTD, DME,RFG) 71%

Gasoline etc. hybrids (EtOH, MeOH, NG, RFG) 53%

Diesel etc. hybrids (BD, FTD, or CD) 33%

Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles 0%

Battery Electric Vehicles -34%

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Anders Chr. Hansen 7

Eaten up by WtT conversion loss?

Worst Best

TtW efficiency advantage 50% 50%

WtT (“system”) efficiency 62% 70%

WtW efficiency gain 1% 14%

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Anders Chr. Hansen 8

Passenger Car Density 2004 (Cars/sq.km)

Source: Hansen (2007) based on Eurostat

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Anders Chr. Hansen 9

Fuel taxes 2004 (€/GJ)

Petrol

Diesel

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Anders Chr. Hansen 10

Fuel taxes move the competitiveness threshold

Diesel and petrol (€/GJ)

0 10 10 10 20

Hydrogen (€/GJ) 0 10 0 0 0

Natural gas (€/GJ)

0 0 10 8 16

NG Win NGWin

NGWin

NG Win NGWin

Best case ($/bbl)

188 105 86 85174

45115

45 42 -16

Worst case ($/bbl)

542 170 327150

590

110

452

110362

49

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Anders Chr. Hansen 11

Model

Model from Sustainable Mobility Project WBCSD and IEA

Only passenger cars in Europe

Levels are debatable since assumptions would probably be different today But we only look for changes

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Anders Chr. Hansen 12

Scenarios

1) A reference scenario Almost only gasoline and diesel Market shares of hybrids, LPG/CNG, and EV negligible

2) NG based HFC scenario Introduction of HFC in passenger car market is advanced 41% of passenger car sales in 2050 hydrogen is based on natural gas

3) Low carbon HFC scenario Like NG based scenario, but H2 is produced with GHG emission free or light methods Low carbon H2 99% market share in 2025

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Anders Chr. Hansen 13

NG based HFC scenarioGHG emissions

GHG Emissions - Light Duty Vehicles

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mio

. to

ns

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Reference

Active

Diff in % of Ref

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Anders Chr. Hansen 14

Low carbon HFC scenarioGHG emissions

GHG Emissions - Light Duty Vehicles

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mio

. to

ns

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

ReferenceActiveDiff in % of Ref

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Anders Chr. Hansen 15

NG based HFC scenarioPM emissions (≈NOx,VOC,CO)

PM Emissions - Light Duty Vehicles

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1000

to

ns

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

ReferenceActiveDiff in % of Ref

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Anders Chr. Hansen 16

Low carbon HFC scenarioPM emissions (≈NOx,VOC,CO)

PM Emissions - Light Duty Vehicles

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1000

to

ns

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

ReferenceActiveDiff in % of Ref

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Anders Chr. Hansen 17

PM 2.5 deaths (loss of statistical life expectancy)

2000 2020 after EU Air Strategy and

Maximum Climate Action

Source: EEA (2006)

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Anders Chr. Hansen 18

Concentration of remaining reserves

World Proven Gas Reserves 2005

Russian Federation

Iran

Qatar

Others

Iraq

Algeria

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Nigeria

United Arab Emirates

Kazakhstan

World Proven Oil Reserves 2005

Russian Federation

Iran

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab EmiratesVenezuela

Iraq

Kazakhstan

Others

NigeriaAlgeria

Data source: BP statistical review database 2006

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Anders Chr. Hansen 19

Any reasons for pursuing natural gas based hydrogen in the introduction phase?

Dynamic effects throughout the fuel chain (and commodity chain for equipment) Pull forces User-producer interaction Economies of scope External economies of scale (cluster effects) ….

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Anders Chr. Hansen 20

Why subsidies or lower taxes to H2?

Case for tax-favors modest for NGH2, but strong for CO2-lean H2 productionHFC can contribute to achievement of societal goals:

Even in 2015-2025 if renewable and nuclear energy 2020s: coal with CCS, photovoltaic, HT electrolysis, algae..

HFC limited contribution if supply based on natural gas supply, in particular without CCSThe tax levels already existing in Europe are sufficientIf designed to reflect contributions to societal goals even more so: Taxation of energy inputs

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Anders Chr. Hansen 21

Recent EECG Research Papers on HFC in automotive use from Department of Environmental, Social and Spatial Change (ENSPAC) at Roskilde University

Hansen, A. C. (2007) Where in Europe Will Hydrogen Become Competitive First? http://hdl.handle.net/1800/3012

Hansen, A. C. (2007) When Will Hydrogen Become a Competitive Transport Fuel? http://hdl.handle.net/1800/3011

Hansen, A. C. (2007) Hydrogen and Fuel Taxation. http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2991

Hansen, A. C. (2007) The Potential Contibution of Hydrogen to Societal Goals. http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2979

Hansen, A. C. (2007) The Supply Security of Hydrogen as Transport Fuel.http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2978

Hansen, A. C. (2007) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology in EU LDV Transport: Potential Contribution to Environmental Goals. http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/2434

Hansen, A. C. (2007) The International Oil Price and Hydrogen Competitiveness. http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/2433