Competitive Research and Actionable Product Recommendations

RPG REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

REVENUE DRIVER 3

Club Challenge Events with Leagues Guild Fest in Lords Mobile: War Kingdom

Product Insights

TRENDS 8

RPG Event Investment Club Events by App Apps with Club Event Releases Club Event Investment by Genre

NEW CONTENT 13

Content Releases

MARKET WATCH 16

Soft-Launch & Breakout Apps Notable Releases

APPENDIX 21

Premium Partnerships RPG Mechanics Taxonomy

AUGUST

2020

Club Challenge Events with Leagues Guild Fest in Lords Mobile: War Kingdom

3

REVENUE DRIVERRevenue-boosting features and events with product data and recommendations

Lords Mobile: War Kingdom

Dow

nloa

ds p

er D

ay

6K

12K

18K

24K

30K

Reve

nue

per D

ay

$60K

$120K

$180K

$240K

$300K

3/2/20 3/16/20 3/30/20 4/13/20 4/27/20 5/11/20 5/25/20 6/8/20 6/22/20 7/6/20 7/20/20 8/3/20 8/17/20

Revenue Downloads

Guild Fest

REVENUE ANALYSIS

4

During the most recent release of Guild Fest, Lords Mobile: War Kingdom's revenue was +16% and downloads were +9% WoW. Revenue averaged +22% WoW for the past eight Guild Fest events.

WoW = Week over week Graph data is iOS U.S. only.

Details • The event is available to clubs with more than 25 members. • Members claim challenges from a club-wide quest board with 20 slots (1). • Challenges must be completed within a time limit. • Members above level 4 can remove unclaimed challenges from the board. • Claimed or removed challenges are replaced with new quests after 30 minutes (2).

• Each player has a limited number of challenge attempts per event. • One additional challenge attempt can be purchased for 1,000 coins.

• Challenges award points that fill a club meter (video). • Filling the meter advances the club to the next reward tier. • Completed tiers allow each member to choose between three rewards (3 and video). • A club leaderboard ranks members based on their contributions (4).

• Clubs are ranked in five leagues, called "gauntlets." • Leagues unlock increasing numbers of challenge attempts and reward tiers (5). • The top five clubs in each league move to a higher league and the bottom five drop to

a lower league for the next event. • Clubs that had fewer than 25 members participate in the previous Guild Fest start at the

lowest league. Additional Information • See the Guild Fest library for more images and videos.

FEATURE TEARDOWN

Players select challenges that fill a club meter when completed. Clubs are ranked in leagues based on points earned for each event.

5

1

5

2 3

4

Offering a variety of difficulty levels helps players enter highly pleasurable flow states. Balancing challenge difficulty with player ability is one of the key factors for enabling flow.1 Guild Fest achieves this by letting players choose different types of challenges on the club board. As one Guild Fest player said, "Everybody's got their own flavor for how they want to play... I didn't feel like I was cakewalking through everything. It was enough of a challenge but also something that's attainable."2

Other genres have also driven revenue with variable challenges. In puzzle, Panda Pop! saw an average revenue increase of +11% across 11 Panda Rescue events, which offered challenges at three difficulty tiers (1).

Customizable rewards are perceived as fairer and more relevant. Each reward tier in Guild Fest lets players choose between three rewards (2). Research shows that people who are allowed to choose their own rewards perform better and feel that they've been treated more fairly.3

These rewards are also more likely to be relevant to players' varying goals. A medium spend player said, "I like having the option to be able to choose what I get. My husband may be working on one thing and I'm working on another."4

In another example of successful customizable rewards, Star Trek Fleet Command's Crucible of War let players use event currency to choose rewards from an event store and led to a +88% 3Do3D revenue increase.

Contribution requirements and chat tools drive engagement by increasing social pressure. Because each player only has a limited number of challenge attempts, clubs need contributions from a large number of their members in order to succeed.5 And clubs with fewer than 25 participating members are automatically sent back to the lowest league. As a result, clubs work hard to motivate their members.

One club leader said that her club got 69 out of 96 members to contribute to the most recent Guild Fest using the in-game chat.6 However, she also noted that her club uses outside services to communicate with international members due to poor in-game chat translation. The most competitive clubs go even further by imposing mandatory contribution requirements.7

1 Cognitive Flow: The Psychology of Great Game Design 2 Subject A; age 36 male, $10/month spend, 10 hrs/week playtime 3 The Performance Benefits of Reward Choice: A Procedural Justice Perspective, p. 18–19 4 Subject B; age 45 female, $50–$100/month spend, 40–50 hrs/week playtime

5 Subject C; age 33 male, $15/month spend, 5 hrs/week playtime: "We're always talking about how we're going to get more people into the process of the game." 6 Subject B ($50–$100/month) 7 Subject D; age 43 male, $100/month spend, 40 hrs/week playtime: "They make you get at least 1,000 [points]... They'll kick you out for a couple days or they'll charge you for resources." 6

PRODUCT INSIGHTSLiquid & Grit now interviews players to add more qualitative insights to our reports. This week, we talked to four Lords Mobile Guild Fest players who spend $10–$100 per month.

1

2

8 Social Loafing: A Field Investigation, p. 298–299 9 Identifiability as a Deterrent to Social Loafing: Two Cheering Experiments, p. 306 10 Subject D ($100/month): "They delete quests that are less than 100." 11 Subject B ($50–$100/month): "We want our members to at least do 100-point [quests] or above, most guilds are that way."

12 Subject D ($100/month): "Sometimes I'll get on and I"ll have to wait three hours or even a couple days to come up with a quest." 13 Subject B ($50–$100/month): "We counted one day, I think we refreshed it six times before we found anything we could even do." 14 Subject D ($100/month) 7

PRODUCT INSIGHTS (CONT'D.)Visible contributions reduce freeloading. Guild Fest's club leaderboards rank members' individual points, creating additional social pressure. The visibility of individual contributions is strongly correlated with increased engagement in group tasks.8 One study showed that identifying individuals' output increased effort by 46%.9

Apps can add even more visibility by highlighting and rewarding top performers, like Angry Birds 2's Clan Leaderboard (1).

Offer high-value challenges and plenty of attempts to keep the most competitive clubs from hitting a ceiling. Two medium spend players we interviewed both said that mid- and top-level clubs remove all low-value challenges due to the limited number of attempts per player (2).10, 11 When combined with the 30-minute refresh timer, however, this practice often forces players to wait around for hours or even days to find a worthwhile challenge.12 "We spent several of our days where our board was just empty waiting for things to refresh. If you have an empty board, it's very frustrating."13

This can also create social tension as members race to claim valuable challenges in order to meet club contribution requirements: "If everyone's been waiting for half an hour, you gotta be quick or it's gone... Lots of times I have to wait till the last couple days so that they're almost done so I can get to [challenges]."14

Make sure highly engaged players don't get stuck behind bottlenecks by scaling challenge values and attempt limits to keep up with top clubs.

In advanced leagues, consider reducing the prevalence of low-value challenges or increasing the number of attempts per player to boost engagement from these high-value players.

1

2

8

Tracked RPG Apps: AFK Arena, BLEACH Brave Souls, Dragon Ball Legends, Empires & Puzzles, Epic Seven, Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire, Fire Emblem Heroes, Guns of Glory, King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare, Last Shelter: Survival, Lords Mobile: War Kingdom, MARVEL Strike Force, RAID: Shadow Legends, Rise of Kingdoms, Star Trek Fleet Command, Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes, Summoners War

TRENDSInvestment trends for event and feature releases

RPG Event Investment (Past 3 Months)

Num

ber o

f Rel

ease

s

15

30

45

60

75

90

RewardsClubs

Challenges

Purchase

s

Collecti

ons

Notices

Mini-Games

Quests

Accelerat

ors

Missions

Competitions

Leve

ls

Expansio

ns

REWARD AND CLUB EVENTS LEAD RPG INVESTMENTS

9

Club events were the second most released event type in tracked RPG apps over the past three months.

Club Events by App (Past 12 Months)

Final Fantasy XV: A New EmpireRise of Kingdoms

Last Shelter: SurvivalLords Mobile: War Kingdom

Star Trek Fleet CommandKing of Avalon: Dragon Warfare

AFK ArenaBLEACH Brave Souls

Guns of GloryMARVEL Strike ForceDragon Ball Legends

Empires & PuzzlesEpic Seven

Fire Emblem HeroesStar Wars: Galaxy of Heroes

Summoners War

Number of Releases

10 20 30 40 50 60

FINAL FANTASY DOMINATES CLUB EVENT RELEASES

10

Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire released 57 club events in the past 12 months, making up 45% of total club events. Lords Mobile: War Kingdom is tied with Star Trek Fleet Command for the fourth most club events.

Apps with Club Event Releases

Num

ber o

f App

s

2

4

6

8

10

Aug '19 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

MORE RPG APPS RELEASING CLUB EVENTS

11

The past six months saw an average of 5.5 RPG apps release club events per month, up from 4.3 in the previous six months.

RPGS INVEST MOST HEAVILY IN CLUB EVENTS

12

During the past six quarters, club events made up an average of 11% of quarterly event releases in tracked RPG apps.

Club Event Investment by Genre

Perc

enta

ge o

f Eve

nt R

elea

ses

4%

8%

12%

16%

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20

RPG Casino Puzzle

Average

13

NEW CONTENTNew heroes, equipment, and abilities

CONTENT RELEASES I

14

2

6

4

1

5

3

RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

7/8 7/22 7/22

7/8 7/23 7/31

7/1 7/8

7/15 7/29

7/1 7/8

7/29 7/1

7/16 7/23

7/9 7/16 7/23 7/26 7/30 7/16 7/30 7/24

7/5 7/8

Balance Changes — AFK Arena abilities Balance Changes — AFK Arena abilities Daimon - The Forsaken Child — AFK Arena hero (1) Cape Fastener — BLEACH Brave Souls equipment 5th Anniversary — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes Thousand-Year Blood War Round 10 — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes Awakened I'm Gettin' Excited! No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment Saiyans don't do limits! — Dragon Ball Legends equipment (2) Awakened This Ki. It's gotta be... No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment Awakened What Futile Efforts No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment EXTREME Krillin and Tien — Dragon Ball Legends heroes 2nd Anniversary Rising - SSGSS — Dragon Ball Legends heroes (3) Legends Rising The Crusher — Dragon Ball Legends heroes Noor — Empires & Puzzles hero (4) Seshat — Empires & Puzzles hero Lady Loki — Empires & Puzzles hero Two New Exclusive Equipment — Epic Seven equipment Circus Fantasia — Epic Seven equipment Tamarinne: Starlight Concert Skin — Epic Seven equipment Arena Endeavor Season — Epic Seven equipment Champion's Trophy — Epic Seven equipment Mui — Epic Seven hero (5) Holiday Yufine — Epic Seven hero FFXV Anniversary Equipment — Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire equipment Weapon Refinery Update! — Fire Emblem Heroes abilities Overseas Memories — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes (6)

15

CONTENT RELEASES II2

6

4

1

5

3

RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

7/9 7/10 7/20 7/21 7/25 7/30 7/20 7/20

7/6 7/6 7/1

7/14 7/1

7/15 7/24 7/22 7/22 7/13 7/22 7/29

7/7 7/7

7/16 7/27 7/10 7/31

Lorenz: Highborn Heat — Fire Emblem Heroes hero (1) Minerva: Red Dragoon — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Heroes, Light and Shadow — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes Eremiya: Bishop of Woe — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Robin: High Deliverer — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Hel: Death Sovereign — Fire Emblem Heroes hero (2) Lv.5 Airship Skin — Guns of Glory equipment R8 Trance Gemstone — Guns of Glory equipment Seductress Milady de Winter — Guns of Glory hero (3) Vampire Hunter Jacob Van Helsing — Guns of Glory hero Sanguine Gemstone — King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare equipment Updated Characters — MARVEL Strike Force abilities X-23 — MARVEL Strike Force hero Squirrel Girl — MARVEL Strike Force hero (4) Beast — MARVEL Strike Force hero Champion Fixes — RAID: Shadow Legends abilities Bazaar-exclusive Accessories — RAID: Shadow Legends equipment Kantra the Cyclone — RAID: Shadow Legends hero Daily Login Rewards Extension Heroes — RAID: Shadow Legends heroes Chandragupta Maurya — Rise of Kingdoms hero D'Vor Improvement — Star Trek Fleet Command equipment Stella — Star Trek Fleet Command equipment (5) Threepio & Chewie — Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes hero (6) Mon Mothma — Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes hero 5 New Transmogrifications — Summoners War equipment Artifacts — Summoners War equipment

16

MARKET WATCHNew apps and notable releases from established competitors

CATAN — World Explorers by Niantic App Details • This multiplayer app is an AR adaptation of the popular board

game The Settlers of Catan. • Players explore an AR map of real-world locations to collect

resources and build settlements (1).• Special cards trigger unique abilities (2). • Players can customize and level up avatars (3). • NPCs allow players to build relationships, trade, and complete

quests (4). • Other features include daily bonuses, mini-games, and regional

team vs. team competitions (5). Launch Information • Soft-launched 6/29/20 in New Zealand • Average daily revenue since launch: $29 • Average daily downloads since launch: 157 • View CATAN — World Explorers on the App Store

SOFT-LAUNCH APP

17

1 2

Our study of 1,415 mobile RPG players found that exploration is the most preferred type of gameplay in RPG apps. This includes not only exploring the game world but also character customization and story development.15

15 Liquid & Grit RPG Personas Report, p. 3–4

3 54

One-Punch Man: Road to Hero 2.0 by Oasis Games App Details • This idle RPG is based on the popular One-Punch Man manga and anime franchise. • Gameplay focuses on hero collection and turn-based combat (1). • Clubs grant access to club boss battles (2). • Other features include co-op battles and replayable levels.

Launch Information • Released worldwide on 6/29/20 • 59th highest-grossing RPG app as of 8/1/20 • Average daily U.S. revenue since launch: $23,595 • Average daily U.S. downloads since launch: 8,077 • View One-Punch Man: Road to Hero 2.0 on the App Store

Guardian Tales by Kakao Games App Details • This retro 2D dungeon crawler has players solve puzzles, engage in action combat, and defeat bosses (3). • A PvP mode includes ranked team vs. team combat. • Collections consist of over 50 heroes and 100 weapons (4). • Heroes live and interact in a customizable home base with buildings that improve hero morale.

Launch Information • Released worldwide on 7/28/20 • 76th highest-grossing RPG app as of 8/1/20 • Average daily U.S. revenue since launch: $14,675 • Average daily U.S. downloads since launch: 4,732 • View Guardian Tales on the App Store

BREAKOUT APPS

18

1

2

3

4

NOTABLE RELEASES I

19

1

2

3

4

App Library Description

AFK Arena

Field of Stars mission feature

• Players unlock multiple series of bonuses by completing challenges. • Unlocked bonuses can be purchased with secondary currencies (video). • An unlockable feature lets players replace elite heroes with heroes of their choice (1).

The Oak Inn accelerator feature

• Players can move high-level heroes into an inn (2). • Challenges award furniture and feature-specific currency. • Feature currency is used to buy furniture to decorate rooms (video). • Furniture provides heroes with new abilities and stat boosts. • Completed furniture sets award additional boosts.

BLEACH Brave Souls

Brave Souls Passports

reward feature

• Two monthly subscriptions offer players extra quest tickets or character summons (3). • A $4.49 monthly subscription includes quest ticket bonuses. • A $26.99 monthly subscription includes Spirit Orbs and Summons Tickets.

Quiz Raid Kon's Challenge club event

• Six players team up to defeat a boss by correctly answering lore-related questions. • Colored sections of the battle arena correspond to answers. • Players attack the boss by moving their hero to the correct answer's color (4). • Answering incorrectly prevents the hero from moving during the next question (video).

Tapjoy bonus feature

• Players earn Spirit Orbs by completing offers through Tapjoy (video). • Offers include ads, surveys, purchases, podcasts, quizzes, and more.

NOTABLE RELEASES II

20

1

2

3

4

App Library Description

Epic Seven

Amazon Prime Login Event

reward event

• Amazon Prime members can claim free rewards over a series of two-week events (1). • Players must log in to their Amazon accounts through the app.

Expedition club feature

• Challenges award wanted posters. • Wanted posters are used to launch boss battles (2). • Players choose between three difficulty levels. • Higher difficulty levels are unlocked by beating the previous level.

• Up to five friends and club members can be invited to join the battle (video). • Defeated bosses award points that can be used to buy rewards from a feature store.

Rank Up Pack 1 & 2 Renewal

purchase feature

• Account levels provide rewards at milestones. • $29.99 and $49.99 passes unlock second reward tiers for players above level 10 and level 40.

RAID: Shadow Legends

Daily Login Rewards Extension

bonus feature

• The daily login rewards calendar has extended from 180 days to 270 days. • New 4- and 5- star heroes are awarded at 210, 240, and 270 consecutive daily logins (3).

Rise of Kingdoms

The Golden Kingdom

quest event

• Players choose five troops to advance through a series of tile maps covered in fog (4). • Clearing fog reveals bonuses, hazards, enemies, healing stations, reinforcements, rewards, and

an event store. • Enemies must be defeated before adjacent fog can be cleared (video). • Defeating a map's boss unlocks the next map. • Completed maps fill a progress bar for rewards at milestones.

Quickly review all features and events

Filter the Library Tool by month and year to see all new releases.

APPENDIX

21

22

PREMIUM PARTNERSHIPS

Liquid & Grit partners with these premier market research and analytics companies to infuse our reports with the most relevant and detailed gaming user personas, data, and statistics available.

Quadrant Strategies Kinrate Analytics Sensor Tower

Market Research Quadrant Strategies

Player Personas Kinrate Analytics

Mobile App Store Intelligence Sensor Tower

Quadrant Strategies is a market research consultancy that uses research to help the world's most prominent technology, gaming, and entertainment companies develop strategies for building their user base, increasing user engagement and spend, and strengthening their marketing and brand plans.

We do that using a range of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, including gamer segmentation and persona development, feature testing, message creation, and loyalty and engagement modeling. The work of our senior leadership goes back many years, and includes long-term engagements for console and gaming-PC hardware-makers, individual games in a range of genres, and across consoles, PCs, and mobile, and for some of the top game franchises.

Kinrate Analytics offers game developers, consultants, publishers, and cloud gaming operators the best cross-platform game recommendation engine for targeted marketing, as well as a novel profiling-as-a-service solution for intelligent market segmentation and social networking.

Other services include advanced market prediction analyses for identifying emergent gaming trends and access to unique AI-enhanced data of 140 thousand game titles and 48 million game players.

The products of Kinrate Analytics have been developed in university-led research projects in collaboration with economists, psychologists, game scholars, and data scientists.

Sensor Tower is relied upon by financial analysts, VCs, and publishers who need to leverage data to identify the fastest-growing apps, emerging markets, and more.

Clients harness Sensor Tower's suite of app intelligence tools to: ‣ Evaluate app economies and app vitality. ‣ Drive organic growth with the leading App Store

Optimization platform. ‣ Get the best global download and revenue

estimates for the App Store and Google Play. ‣ Discover top creatives and better shape user

acquisition strategy.

RPG MECHANICS TAXONOMY

23

Family Definition

Accelerators Increases the power, impact, or efficiency of play

Banks Saves a % of spend that can be unlocked later

Bonuses Free bonuses given to players (e.g., retention or W2E)

Challenges Goal-oriented tasks for players to complete

Clubs Groups that accomplish goals or compete with other groups

Collections A set of items players collect (often for a completion prize)

Competitions Players competing against other players

Conflicts Players engaging in battle with their characters 

Cosmetics Improvements or updates to the app or a feature

Currencies Changes to currencies, economies, stores, and items

Custom Design Options to customize aesthetics

Expansions Additional rooms, worlds, play modes, VIP lounges, etc.

Flows Specific flows, like the NUX, ratings, and surveys

Family Definition

Hazards Level elements/blockers that make levels more difficult

Interactions Social features with direct or indirect interaction

Leaderboards Stand-alone leaderboards

Levels Anything to do with leveling

Mini-Games Smaller, shorter games within a game (e.g., scratcher cards)

Missions Linear sets of tasks that players must complete

Notices Feature or product announcements

Other Miscellaneous features and outliers

Profiles Players' setups, profiles, settings, and controls

Purchases Anything to do with purchases

Quests Tasks that players complete to progress along a map

Rewards Rewards players receive for engagement or spend (other than those in the bonuses family)

"Shhh. My common sense is tingling."

— Deadpool, Deadpool #26

Copyright © 2020 Liquid and Grit LLC. All rights reserved.

Brett.Nowak@LiquidandGrit.com

LiquidandGrit.com