rupert report - ucsb econ. forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Rupert Report
Peter RupertProfessor
Department of Economics, UCSBDirector, UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Economic UpdateJanuary 26, 2017
www.efp.ucsb.edu/talk
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economics and the election
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what to expect
uncertainty
Dodd-Frank
international trade
taxes and spending
Obamacare
oil/energy
immigration
ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...
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what to expect
uncertainty
Dodd-Frank
international trade
taxes and spending
Obamacare
oil/energy
immigration
ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...
![Page 5: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
what to expect
uncertainty
Dodd-Frank
international trade
taxes and spending
Obamacare
oil/energy
immigration
ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...
![Page 6: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
what to expect
uncertainty
Dodd-Frank
international trade
taxes and spending
Obamacare
oil/energy
immigration
ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...
![Page 7: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
what to expect
uncertainty
Dodd-Frank
international trade
taxes and spending
Obamacare
oil/energy
immigration
ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...
![Page 8: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
what to expect
uncertainty
Dodd-Frank
international trade
taxes and spending
Obamacare
oil/energy
immigration
ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...
![Page 9: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
what to expect
uncertainty
Dodd-Frank
international trade
taxes and spending
Obamacare
oil/energy
immigration
ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...
![Page 10: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
what to expect
uncertainty
Dodd-Frank
international trade
taxes and spending
Obamacare
oil/energy
immigration
ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...
![Page 11: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1929 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Real GDPLogged Billions of 2009$, Seasonally Adjusted
Linear Trend
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so far...
some positive signs
stock market
gdp
FOMC a bit more upbeat
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Dow Jones Industrial Index (000’s)
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Ele
ctio
n
Jan 012016
Mar 012016
May 022016
Jul 012016
Sep 012016
Nov 012016
Jan 022017
16
17
18
19
20
Dow Jones Industrial Index (000’s)
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My
Bir
thda
y
Jan 012016
Mar 012016
May 022016
Jul 012016
Sep 012016
Nov 012016
Jan 022017
16
17
18
19
20
Dow Jones Industrial Index (000’s)
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Per
cent
−2
0
2
4
6
2.8%
0.8%
3.1%
4%
−1.2%
4%
5%
2.3%2%
2.6%
2%
0.9% 0.8%
1.4%
3.5%
2013
2014
2015
2016
Econsnapshot.com Source: BEA
Real GDP
quarterly change at an annual rateyear−over−year change
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what’s up with our friends at the Fed?
increases this year?
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housing and financial aspects
home price growth has moderated
mortgage crisis has abated
foreclosures back to “normal”
yet, foreclosure timelines not!
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
20
40
60
80
100
120
Santa Barbara[ $1,064,100]Carpinteria[ $788,600]Montecito[ $3,048,500]Goleta[ $786,800]Santa Maria[ $352,500]Lompoc[ $307,000]Guadalupe[ $266,900]
Zillow Home Value IndexIndex (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)
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2001−Feb 2004−Feb 2007−Feb 2010−Feb 2013−Feb 2016−Feb
−40
−20
0
20
40 Santa Barbara[6%]Carpinteria[0%]Montecito[7%]Goleta[3%]Santa Maria[8%]Lompoc[10%]Guadalupe[12%]
Zillow Home Value IndexYoY Growth Rate (%)
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Q1 1995 Q1 1998 Q1 2001 Q1 2004 Q1 2007 Q1 2010 Q1 2013 Q4 2015
16
18
20
22
24
26
www.efp.ucsb.edu Source: Board of Governors, Flow of Funds
Ratio of HH Liabilities to HH Net WorthPercent (%)
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 Riverside, CASacramento, CASan Diego, CALos Angeles, CASan Francisco, CACalifornia
Homes foreclosed per month, by MSANumber of homes per 10,000
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2011−Q2 2012−Q1 2012−Q4 2013−Q3 2014−Q2 2015−Q1 2015−Q4 2016−Q3
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Santa Barbara
California
United States
Percent of Home with Negative Equity
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San
ta B
arba
raC
ount
y
San
ta M
aria
San
ta B
arba
raC
ity
Lom
poc
Gol
eta
Car
pint
eria
Sol
vang
Gua
dalu
pe
Bue
llton
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
14 %
Percent of Homes with Negative Equity
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San
ta B
arba
raC
ount
y
San
ta M
aria
San
ta B
arba
raC
ity
Lom
poc
Gol
eta
Car
pint
eria
Sol
vang
Gua
dalu
pe
Bue
llton
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Negative Equity Loan−to−Value: 2016Q3
100−120% 120−140% 140−160% 160−180% 180−200% >200%
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income and wages
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1969 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18 USCalifornia
Gini CoefficientReal per capita personal income across counties
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new findings on inequality
most of the inequality is “between firms”
not “within firms”
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labor markets
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wages
wage growth picking up in the US
but not evenly across the state
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016
−2
0
2
4
CPI AHE
Inflation and Average Hourly EarningsPercent change from a year ago, all private workers
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[−1%, 0%]
(0%, 1%]
(1%, 2%]
(2%, 3%]
(3%, 6%]
Real Mean Wage Growth 2015 − 2016
Source: CA EDD
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employment
employment growth strong
but varies by industry and geography
unemployment as well
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
95
100
105
Santa Barbara County [ 175,120 ]California [ 15,476,015 ]United States [ 138,434,120 ]
www.efp.ucsb.edu
Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Seasonally AdjustedIndex (Dec 2007 = 100)
Notes: December 2007 level in brackets.
Source: BLS & CA EDD
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016
100
105
110
115Buellton [ 3,127 ]Carpinteria [ 7,775 ]Goleta [ 17,433 ]Guadalupe [ 3,231 ]Lompoc [ 17,601 ]Santa Barbara City [ 51,151 ]Santa Maria [ 46,649 ]Solvang [ 2,706 ]
www.efp.ucsb.edu
Total Civilian Employment, Seasonally AdjustedIndex (Jan 2010 = 100)
Note: Current level in brackets.
Source: BLS & CA EDD
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016
4
6
8
10
12
Buellton [ 2.9% ]Carpenteria [ 3.97% ]Goleta [ 2.71% ]Guadalupe [ 4.3% ]Lompoc [ 5.95% ]Santa Barbara City [ 3.64% ]Santa Maria [ 5.53% ]Solvang [ 5.63% ]
www.efp.ucsb.edu
Unemployment Rate, Seasonally AdjustedPercent (%)
Note: Most recent rate in brackets.
Source: BLS & CA EDD
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Government
Leisure & Hospitality
Educ. & Health ServicesGoods Producing
Prof. & Bus. ServicesTotal Farm
Retail Trade
Financial ActivitiesOther Services
Wholesale Trade
Information
Trans., Ware. & Util.
19.2 14.2 13 11 10.6 10.29.5
3.12.8
2.52.1
1.7
−2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
0 25 50 75 100Percent of Total Employment
Dec
201
5 −
Dec
201
6 G
row
th R
ate
(%)
December 2016 Employment by Industry Santa Barbara County
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final thoughts
policy uncertainty
strong growth in the US
FOMC forecast: 3 25bp increases in 2017?
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1929 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Real GDPLogged Billions of 2009$, Seasonally Adjusted
Linear Trend
![Page 49: Rupert Report - UCSB Econ. Forecast · 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115 Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060220/5f0705197e708231d41ae5a1/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
thank you!